Some Western media and scholars have been exaggerating its words to rendering the "Chinese economic collapse theory"。They declare four "d" -the insufficient demand and shrinkage、Debt crisis、Defidence, DEBT, DEMOGRAPHIC and Decoupling/De-Risking) is an insurmountable force，It will end China's growth miracle。Reflection of the motivation of this "Chinese economic collapse theory"，Either based on the "innocent" misunderstanding of the Chinese economy，Either intending to launch "public opinion war" and fight the Chinese economy。

China's glorious economic development history of more than 40 years tells us，Economic development cannot be smooth sailing，National Revival、On the way to a strong country and the people, there will always be difficulties and dangers。But the Chinese people and the Chinese governments have not been negatively slack、No hand in hand，Instead, adopt forward -looking and positive response measures，For example, the "steady progress proposed by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China at the end of 2023、to promote stability、Establishing first and then breaking "economic policy。Challenge means opportunity，All kinds of challenges currently facing will promote China's structural reform and industrial upgrading，Therefore, it provides new motivation for China's future sustainable development。China's economy will be updated in the industry、Structural optimization and the formation of new productive forces and steady forward。This article will be further interpreted and analyzed，Strive to obtain more clearly for the above "challenge"、Cognitive rational cognition，and find out the countermeasures and solutions，Convert challenges into new opportunities。

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Some Western Chinese observers are keen to point out that China's consumption demand is not strong，and believe that the weak consumer demand is caused by insufficient family income。They will make further judgments，Weak consumer demand in China will lead to excess supply，Economic stagnation。In fact，High -speed growth based on household income in the past 20 years，The final consumption growth rate of Chinese families reaches 9.3%per year，It is more than 3 times the world average。At the same time，Due to the faster investment in the past few decades，China's consumption in GDP is still relatively low，56%，Comparison of comparison，India 66%，Thailand is 67%。From this perspective，Chinese family consumption does have a long -term growth space，The question is how to stimulate consumption growth。Western scholars usually recommend sending money to consumers，But I believe that the Chinese government will not do this。In their opinion，The Chinese government only pays attention to supply and does not care about demand、I think consumption is a kind of "waste"、Like collective control of production and does not like decentralized consumption guidance growth。But the above -mentioned inference speculation is not based on。

In fact，President Xi Jinping has clearly pointed out，To enable residents to "consume", "dare to consume", "wish consumption"。"Can consume"，In other words, there must be stable income to support consumption，"Dare to consume" means that consumers have confidence consumption，"May consumption" means that there must be high -quality products and consumer environment to allow consumers to choose consumption。Of course it is necessary to send money to poor families，But "Giving people to fish is worse than bet365 live casino games granting people with fishing"，Sustainable consumption、Nakaurous growth cannot be solved by paying money to solve the problem。

Chinese families like savings are well known。China's family savings rate (the proportion of home savings accounts for disposable income) is close to 35%，and the US family savings rate is only 15%，EU is 13%。other，New crown epidemic in the past few years，The family has increased savings。2022，Home bank savings deposits increased by 17.8 trillion yuan，A survey of the People's Bank of China in the fourth quarter of 2022 shows，61.8%of the Chinese want to "save more"。During the epidemic period and after the epidemic，The increase in the increase of the prevention of savings reversed the trend，Reduced the proportion of family consumption in GDP。These savings allow Chinese families to safely and effectively cope with the sudden epidemic situation，But，If people still strengthen savings after the epidemic is over，will lead to weak consumption。

Key to boost family consumption in the short term，lies in increasing consumer confidence。The Chinese government has provided some stimulus measures for consumer growth，For example，Issuing consumer coupons、Reduce consumption tax and fees、Sales subsidies and other forms to stimulate cars、Purchase of large -scale products such as electrical appliances。Many local governments are also taking measures to stimulate rural consumption、Digital consumption、Service Consumption, etc.。other，The government supports private enterprises through policy measures、Encourage the private sector to create more employment opportunities。The "31" introduced by boosting the private economy in 2023，It will play an important role in reviving the private economy。Private enterprises provide 80%of employment opportunities，With the gradual recovery and expansion of the enterprise，will bring growth of employment and income opportunities，to revitalize consumers' income and confidence。

Promoting long -term growth of consumption，then require structural transformation and continuous income growth，This is exactly what China is working to achieve。First，China has moved towards the road of high -quality development based on technological innovation and productivity growth，New Energy、The development of green technology and digital economy has promoted the formation of new productive forces。These emerging industries will generate high skills and high -paying work，to promote the healthy growth of income，Further enhances residents' spending power。At present, it seems，The service industry requires more policy attention and support。China's service industry has created a lot of employment opportunities，But the productivity level is not high。The retail sales of the service industry in 2023 increased by 20%，But the service industry investment has only increased by 0.8%。In other words，Investment in the service industry has huge potential。Vigorously developing the service industry can not only increase productivity and create high -paying employment opportunities，You can also meet the needs of consumers by providing high -quality services。The service industry covers travel、Entertainment、Children's conservation、Education、Elderly Nursing、Environmental protection、Business services and other series of growth points，other，Smart services also have huge development space and potential。

Next，Current，More than 400 million Chinese people still live in rural areas，Urban and rural income ratio is as high as 2.5: 1，The consumption level of the rural population is relatively low。Promote policies that support rural revitalization and relaxation of hukou to promote the consumption of migrant workers，For Bet365 app download the consumption gap between urban and rural consumption、Promoting rural consumption and realizing the integration of urban and rural consumption is important。In the city，Increases the ways of migrant workers to obtain public services such as education and medical care，It will also reduce their preventive savings，and enable migrant workers to make expenditures on more free choices。

Last，China's social security system has been expanding in the past few years。The latest data shows，Social security and employment expenditure in 2023 increased by 8.9%，Educational expenditure increased by 4.5%。The Ministry of Finance promises to continue to increase social expenditure and income transfer，To support family income and consumption growth。The coverage of expanding the social security system and public services will effectively reduce preventive savings，Provide consumers with more confidence，and provide more disposable income for its selectivity expenditure。

　The necessary role of public debt

In the past few years，Under the influence of the new crown epidemic and economic slowdown，The debt scale of China and other countries in the world is rising。But some Western scholars' so -called "China debt crisis"，It is produced by misunderstanding the difference between the debt of the private sector and the debt of the public sector。Data display，By 2023，The central government debt accounts for 21.5%of GDP，Local government's explicit debt accounts for 30.5%of GDP，But the debt of non -financial companies accounts for 167.8%of GDP，It seems to reach the worrying level。But，In fact, many so -called non -financial companies' debt is the debt of the local government financing platform。It is estimated，Such platform debt and other local governments hidden debt reaches 40 trillion to 50 trillion yuan，About about 30%of GDP in 2023。In other words，Many debts in China are public or "semi -public" debt，And the company and family debt are relatively low and controllable。

Traditional opinion thinks，Public debt is harmful and dangerous，Because public debt means inefficient or invalid public expenditure invasion resources，or excessive demand causes inflation。But for China，The situation is far from this。

First，Most public debt is RMB debt rather than foreign debt，These debts are denominated and repaid with RMB，And the central bank of the Chinese Central Bank monopolized currency issuance，The Chinese government cannot "use the light" for RMB and cannot pay debt。

2，China ’s inflation rate in 2023 is only 0.2%，There is no pressure to inflation，There is no reason to worry that public expenditure and debt will cause inflation。On the contrary，Public expenditure helps to increase the total demand，Promote economic recovery and price stability。

third，Many public expenditures and debts are used to fund high -speed rail、Solar Park、Power Grid Reconstruction、Technology Industrial Zone, etc.，These public infrastructure has greatly improved the linkability of information and logistics，Enhanced the production capacity of renewable energy，promoted the innovation and industrialization of high -tech。Although these infrastructure may not be profitable in the short term，But they produced a lot of positive spillover，Improving the overall efficiency of the economy，It is an indispensable element for the long -term economic development and transformation。

Fourth，As the International Monetary Fund Organization，Although China's public debt level is higher，But the Chinese government also has a large amount of assets。As of 2019，Chinese government assets are as high as US $ 12.5 trillion。The Chinese government's equity holdings in financial and non -financial public companies account for the largest share of its financial assets，Value reaches 68%of GDP，About Bet365 app download 3 times the average level of other countries。The International Monetary Fund Organization summarizes that the Chinese government has a healthy asset -liability form，There is no debt -to -debt risk。This can be seen，The so -called debt crisis is alarmist，No facts based on。

On the basis of no debt crisis，We should further realize，Central government debt is not only sustainable but also necessary。In order to allow the real estate industry and local governments to effectively "deleveraging"，The central government must "add leverage"。The Chinese government is determined to adjust the real estate industry。On the one hand，The speculative behavior of the real estate industry has distorted the effective allocation of capital; on the other hand,，With the change of population structure and total amount，People's demand for housing will begin to stabilize。So，The "Three Red Line" policies implemented in 2020 are very necessary for restricting real estate leverage and reorganizing the real estate industry。

Comparison of comparison，In the past two years，Although the real estate industry is adjusting and transforming，The average growth rate of GDP in China has reached 4.1%。There are many reasons for China's economy more tough and compressive。First，The central bank and state -owned commercial banks provide necessary liquidity for eligible real estate developers，This liquidity support helps to alleviate financial risks on the one hand，On the other hand, it also ensures the stability of the real estate market。Next，The development of the digital economy and the green economy offsets the negative effects of the downside of some real estate industry。Last，Many cities relax their house purchase restrictions，And the government’s "three major projects" project，Including affordable housing construction、The construction of the village in the city and the construction of "two -purpose use" public infrastructure，All provide certain demand guarantee for the real estate market，To avoid excessive tightening of the real estate market。This can be seen，Government expenditure and government debt are the means and effective means to resolve the debt of private sector。

Current，What needs to be solved most is the debt problem of the local government。Rectification in the real estate market，The fiscal expenditure and debt capacity of the local government are greatly limited。So，The central government needs to expand against cycle to resolve local government debt and financial issues。Central government bond interest rate，That is, its debt cost is far lower than that of local governments。Look at it in all directions，The central government takes over some local debt and increases fiscal transfer payment，It is an effective way to resolve local financial problems。For example，The Central Government issued a special bond of 1 trillion yuan at the end of 2023，and transfer funds to local governments for disaster prevention and other infrastructure projects，Is a gratifying measure。

　From labor bonus to talent dividends

Many Western critics have warned the population atrophy and aging of China。They think，China's past growth is attributed to rich and cheap labor，With the weakening of the demographic dividend，China's growth will stagnate。But，This view is not correct。

First，Studies at this stage cannot demonstrate the positive correlation of aging and slow economic growth。Research by Chinese economist Lin Yifu shows，Among the 26 "Wealthy Old" countries (that is, the population over 65 years old accounts for 14%of the total population.，and the per capita GDP is less than half of the United States)，Their per capita and overall economic growth rate，Compared with 10 years and the previous 10 years after entering the population aging，All Bet365 lotto review improved instead of decrease。From the example of China，Although China's labor population has long reached its peak，But before the epidemic，China's growth still maintains nearly 7%of each year at high speed。

2，China still has a lot of room for improvement of labor allocation。Official data show，24%of China ’s labor force is still in the agricultural department，Agricultural labor force in developed countries only accounts for 3%of the total labor force。This means that China is still developing and transformed，Most of the labor force can flow from the agricultural sector to the industry and service industry，to improve the effective configuration of labor。

third，Although the number of labor has been reduced，But the quality of China's labor has increased significantly。Young workers who have entered the labor market now have an average education of 7.8 years than the forthcoming generation。

Fourth，China has accelerated industrial automation in recent years。2021，China has newly installed 268,000 industrial robots，More than the sum of other parts of the world。With the continuous development of industrial automation and the improvement of labor efficiency，China will be able to make up for the shortage of labor。Actually，Although the number of workers is reduced，But the skills and labor productivity have improved，Salary will also rise with it，Therefore, it turns into a stronger purchasing power and a higher level of living。In other words，Population transformation is not a challenge but an opportunity。

An important but often ignored problem is，The aging population will also affect the economic demand side。China now has a population of nearly 360 million and above，By 2035, the elderly population will reach 400 million，accounting for 30%of the total population。With the increase in the proportion of the elderly population，Consumption level and structure may change deeply。A survey conducted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 6 cities，The average consumption power of the age group of the 60-65 -year -old group is about two -thirds of the peak level at the age of 20-25。So，Stimulating consumption and investment demand related to aging is very important。For example，Healthy health products and services、Tourism and Sports Entertainment Services for the Elderly、Technology and smart products that are more friendly to the elderly、Pension financial products and services，All areas with great development potential。Current，The scale of China's "silver -haired economy" is about 7 trillion yuan，The proportion of GDP is about 6%，and 2035，The total value of "Silver Economy" will rise to about 3 billion yuan，10%of GDP。Generally speaking，From the perspective of the demand side，Population aging is both a challenge，It is also an important opportunity for the Chinese economy。

　　Continue to keep high levels open to the public

Some Western Chinese observers think，China's rapid growth in the past few decades has benefited from an open and inclusive international environment。They think，With the recognition of the United States，China has joined the World Trade Organization (WTO)，Therefore, the growth era dominated by exports，But those days are gone forever。Today's World，Geopolical tensions and regional conflicts disrupt the global trade and industrial chain system，Countries are increasingly inclined to adopt protectionist policies。As the International Monetary Fund Organization，Nearly 3,000 protection measures have been introduced worldwide in 2023，It is nearly 3 times in 2019。But，It is worth pointing out is，China has never been a passive recipient of international order，China plays an active role in the development of re -reshaping global order towards multi -pole and tolerance。At the same time，China constantly bet365 Play online games strives to strengthen its own comparative advantage，Maintaining strong competitiveness in the global trade and investment system。

First，China has strategically realized the diversity of trading partners。Although Western countries have a decline in the share of the exports of China，But the trade share of the "Belt and Road" countries has increased from 39.2%in 2013 to 45.5%in 2022。China firmly promotes the "Belt and Road" initiative，Enhanced ASEAN countries、Trade cooperation and trade facilitation of BRICS countries。Next，As a big country with responsible，China is trying to stabilize the relationship with Western countries。During the G20 summit in November 2023，The constructive meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Bayeng will help stabilize the relationship between the two countries and slow down geopolitical risks。Last，China continues to consolidate and develop its manufacturing capabilities。China accounts for 30%of global manufacturing capabilities，Occupy in the global supply chain of many industrial products，Such as an electric car、Lithium -ion battery、Solar battery, etc.，These products are called "new three"。What needs to be pointed out is，China has replaced Japan to become the world's largest car exporter，4.91 million vehicles exported in 2023。These technical dense and high value -added exports have replaced the "old three"，​​That is clothing、Home Appliances and Furniture。Continuous optimization and upgrade of China's export product structure，Reflects the new trend of the high -quality development of China's economy，China's "smart manufacturing" has made positive contributions to global green low -carbon transformation，At the same time, it also reflects China's strong competitiveness in the global trading system。

The decline in the inflow of foreign direct investment is caused by a series of complex reasons。U.S. industrial subsidy and "de -risk" plan may have persuaded some American investors to return to the United States for re -return to the United States。The rise in US interest rates and the increase in financial asset return may have inspired some foreign investors to withdraw their investment from China，but，The higher interest rate may also increase the financing cost of these foreign investors。At the same time，The enhancement of the competitiveness of Chinese local enterprises may force market -oriented investors to re -consider investment strategies in China。Despite the decline in foreign investment in the short term，We still have full reasons to believe，Investors who are guided by market -oriented and efficiency will still believe that China is very attractive。

China's economy is still the highlight of the world，Its safe and reliable environment、High -quality infrastructure、Skilled labor and complete supply chain and industrial cluster、Continuous open market and support policies (such as promising to open more markets for foreign investors)、The growing middle -income group consumers, etc.，All are difficult to copy in other countries。This is why even if the company uses "China +1" investment strategy，The reason for them to invest in China。China's share in total foreign investment may decline，But the amount of investment in China will still increase。In other words，Foreign merchants can make the cake larger，instead of cutting the existing cakes smaller。This is why, although some Western media rendered the "collapse theory" for foreign direct investment in Chinese foreign countries，But the business survey shows，Most foreign investors still choose to continue to expand investment in China。

The "Special Report on the Economic Conditions in South China in 2024" released by the South China American Chamber of Commerce on February bet365 live casino games 27，Among the 183 companies interviewed，62%of the interviewed companies choose not to transfer investment from countries outside China，Most of the enterprises interviewed by the transfer of some investment only evacuated less than 30 % of investment projects。66%of U.S. -funded companies choose to continue to cultivate the Chinese market，What's more noteworthy is，86%of the interviewed companies clearly stated that they will not evacuate the Chinese market because of the Sino -US trade friction。

It is worth explanation is，China is no longer as "one poor and two white" as in the past，Need to vigorously introduce foreign capital to make up for the shortcomings of foreign exchange funds，In addition to paying attention to the number of foreign capital，More importantly, the quality of foreign investment。What China needs is high -tech、Advanced organization and management technology and reliable partners。From this point of view，China's current results in the introduction of foreign capital are still remarkable。2023，China's high -tech industry attracted 423.34 billion yuan investment，37.3%of the actual use of foreign capital，Compared with 2022, 1.2 percentage points increased。European Airbus Aircraft、German chemical giant BASF and other high -tech companies have increased investment in China。This aspect illustrates China's attraction in the field of high -tech production，On the other hand, it also shows that China has the opportunity to continue to learn from foreign companies，benefit from technical spillover。

Overall，China will continue to adhere to the principle of high levels of opening to the outside world，Continue to improve your own system，Improve your ability，firmly join the international economic system，Further improve the global economic system，Improve the right to speak in developing countries。In the past 40 years，The take -off and development of the Chinese economy fully proves the toughness of the Chinese economy、Vitality and potential。Current，Facing the domestic economic transformation and international intricate situation，The Chinese government will continue to deepen reform，Promote the new space of various market entities to expand economic development、Cultivate and strengthen new quality productive forces，Adhere to high levels of opening to the outside world、Promote cooperation and win -win。Realizing Chinese -style modernization and national rejuvenation is the direction of the people's hearts，"People have hope，Politics has something to do "，Chinese people will work together、Difficulty of Gongji，Continue to make the Chinese economy bigger and stronger。

　　(The author is a professor of economics at the University of Wramt University in the United States)