2022 is the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Central Asia。Special moment here,We need to sort out Central Asian research,Jian Zhilai。You can look forward to,When the researchers are "internal and external" to see Central Asia,Examine the internal affairs and diplomacy of Central Asian countries,Analysis of the similarities and interaction between the policy and interaction between the policy of the Central Asian countries and the Great and China -China and Asian policies outside the territory,We will open up a new perspective,Make new contributions to improving the status of Central Asian research in regional national learning。
Bet365 app download Central Asian countries have been independent for thirty years,Obvious results have been achieved in national governance and regional governance,There are also many lessons。This is a very complicated topic,It mainly includes why the five Central Asian countries choose different national development paths and national construction strategies; how the geographical location and resource endowment affect the choice of national development roads; what kind of ideology or national concept of national governance is affected by countries; What are the differences between the formal institutional arrangements adopted by countries; why are the national capabilities of various countries present obvious differences,What is the difference between this difference、Economy、Social and cultural influence; what is the same difference between regional order in various countries; why is there a significant degree of participation in regional governance in different countries; The initiative and its dominant regional cooperation mechanism; what are the differences in the development momentum of local and out -of -domain cooperation mechanisms。Effective answers to these questions,It is likely to be an important "key" that opens the black box of the transformation and failure of various countries。
The similarities and effects of the power transfer mode of various countries in Central Asia and the impact on the stability of political situations in various countries。For any country,The power transfer mode of the governor has always been an important issue that affects the stability of national political situation and the direction of national development。Looking back at the 30 -year development process of the five countries in Central Asia, you can find it,Five Central Asian countries have now appeared in the following power transfer mode: civil war (Tagikistan from 1992-1997)、Anti -political rise leads to the abnormal change of regime (2005、2010、Gilgisstan in 2020)、After the leader's sudden death, the elite selected new leaders through struggle or compromise (Turkmenistan in 2006 and Uzbekistan in 2016)、The "double -headed politics" model of the leader through arranging the successor but mastering the highest power (Kazakhstan in 2019)、"Father Chuanzi" family inheritance mode (Turkmenistan in 2022)。From the perspective of empiricalism,The stability of these five power transfer modes is different。Why does five types of power transfer mode in the five Central Asian countries、Why do different results bring different results、What are the operating mechanisms behind it、What factors are affected and other questions,囿 囿,People still have a strong "hunting" or even "conspiracy theory" color。These problems urgently require scholars to clarify through solid research。
The impact of informal political factors in Central Asian countries on the transformation of the country.Before the Central Asian countries were included in the Russian Empire,Nation -state in a modern sense has not produced。Although the rule of the Soviet Union has accumulated a lot of experience for the establishment of the nation -state promoting the establishment of nation -states,But the lack of independent founding experience,It still brings a lot of problems to the transformation of countries in various countries。If the tribes/tribal alliances of various countries、Private relationship network、Informal political forces such as regional forces play an important role in national life,It makes it difficult for the formal institutional arrangements established by countries after independence to play the expected effect。Informal political forces, although exist in most countries in the world and play a certain role,But the impact on Central Asian countries is extremely strong。Whether in the Tagikistan Civil War、Gilgisstan's three times in crisis such as abnormal change,Still built the "Eun -shelter Network" in the elites of various countries、Ordinary people should deal with daily life such as life and death,The impact of informal political forces in the transformation of Central Asian countries is impactful。For this,The current research in the academic world is still not deep enough。
Comparison of the effect of foreign policy decision mechanism and the effect of foreign policy in Central Asia。Compared to the "throwing a thousand dollars" compared to the research on the game of great powers,Researchers pay attention to the Foreign Foreign Decision Mechanism and model of Central Asia.。,Can the Central Asian policy of major countries achieve the expected effect and win in the "New Great Game",to a large extent depends on the response made by countries in Central Asia。In this way,In -depth research。Preliminary perspective,Although the diplomatic decision mechanism and process of five Central Asian countries cannot be observed,But the "family similarity" of the political system in various countries,It means that countries have some similarities in this regard。If in foreign decisions,Presidents of various countries are the most important behavior,Able to impose important impact on decision -making results。In addition,What are the differences in the decision -making model of foreign countries in Central Asia、What other behaviors are participating in it、What are the main factors in decision -making to consider、How to wait for the effectiveness of the foreign decision -making model of various countries,Still in the "black box" state,Urgently needed people to reveal it through solid research。
Reasons and mechanisms for avoiding large -scale conflicts between Central Asian countries。There is a tendency in Central Asia Studies,That is to hold a sense of sorrow for the development of the situation in China。Facts that the national capabilities of Central Asia need to be improved,and the complexity of historical entanglement and real relationship between countries,It is easy to guide people to generate the impression of crisis in the region,As a result, the prevalence of "dangerous discourse" in Central Asian research。,What is confusing is,Although there are many contradictions in Central Asian countries,But so far there has not been a large -scale national conflict that has not erupted to date。At the end of April 2021,A multi -person death broke out between the two countries of Gita、Border conflict of injury,But this conflict has not been upgraded to a comprehensive war between the two parties。Between Central Asian countries is constantly being able to avoid upgrading to a large -scale national war at the last moment,It constitute an abnormal problem with academic value。If it can be effectively answered,It will help increase the scientific cognition of people's scientific cognition about the relationship between the relationship between Central Asia and the evolution of order evolution in Central Asia。
The interactive mode and its development motivation research in Central Asia。Central Asian policy of the great country has always been a hot topic that researchers have paid attention to。,People less discuss the relationship mode for large powers in the region through repeated exploration and long -term interaction。This issue is important,It is because of a detailed analysis of the policy of the big country in China,It is impossible to replace the overall effect of the overall effects generated by the actions of various countries at the regional level,and the latter may have maintained a general stability in Central Asia since 1991 (briefly compares the "abnormality") Important contribution。At present, it seems,The big country competes in Central Asia,But the competition is not comprehensive,Otherwise, it is difficult for us to explain why Central Asia can maintain overall stability for a long time。Preliminary inference,Domestic countries have explored little -known coordination mechanisms in Central Asia。The cause of these mechanisms、Development power、Specific impact, etc. In -depth research,Perhaps it is a great field of research。
The policy trend of the situation and related behavior of the situation and related behavior after the U.S. withdrawal。The transformation of Central Asian countries and the development of the situation in Central Asia,Always closely related to changes in the situation in Afghanistan。More than 20 years ago,The US invasion of Afghanistan has largely changed the national construction and regional situation of countries in Central Asian countries。More than 20 years later,The U.S. military withdrawn from Afghanistan will obviously have a complex impact on the area。Current,Changes around the situation in Afghanistan and Central Asia,Great Power and five Central Asia countries are adjusting their own Central Asian or national policies。As far as countries are concerned,,How to govern Afghanistan,How does Kyrgyz and Kazakhstan respond to the latest political changes,Need to pay close attention。As far as the country outside the domain is concerned,Russia、United States、Türkiye、EU、India、Japan and other behaviors frequently,attractive。Other organizations, including "three forces", also rubbing the palm,Try to try。Current,The chessboard of Eurasia "Big Chess" has been restarted,How to fall off for chess players,How to evolve in "New Great Games",How about the ending of "Play",It should be a question that researchers pay close attention to。
(The author is a professor at the Central Asian Institute of Lanzhou University)
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