Since the second half of 2024，Party Central Committee、The State Council’s scientific decision-making，Concentrated launch of a package of incremental app bet365 download，Significant improvement in investor and consumer confidence，The trend of promoting economic recovery has been significantly enhanced。

　　The package of incremental app bet365 download is unprecedented

Large scale and total volume。The first is to increase the debt limit on a large scale，Support local governments to resolve hidden debt risks。According to analysis agency prediction，The amount of debt app bet365 download this time will not be less than 2 trillion yuan，It will be the most powerful one in recent years。Second, the interest rate cut is unprecedented，On October 21, the loan prime rate (LPR) of 1 year and 5 years or more fell by 25 basis points each，This is the largest decrease since the reform and improvement of the LPR formation mechanism。With the simultaneous reduction of existing mortgage interest rates，This policy will benefit 50 million households、1.500 million population。The third is to issue special government bonds，Support large state-owned commercial banks，Estimated scale is over 1 trillion yuan。The fourth is to expand effective investment，At present, 700 billion yuan of central budget investment and 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds have all been released。The fifth is to stabilize the real estate market，1 million additional units of urban village renovation and dilapidated housing renovation，The credit scale of “whitelist” projects increases to 4 trillion yuan。

Strong coordination。First, the policy coverage is wide，Including finance、Currency、Consumption、app bet365 download、Employment and other important areas，Involving local government、Enterprise、Bank、Multiple subjects such as families and individuals。The second is the coordinated efforts of departments。Before and after the National Day holiday in 2024，The State Council Information Office held 5 press conferences，People's Bank of China、State Financial Supervision Administration、China Securities Regulatory Commission、National Development and Reform Commission、State Administration for Market Regulation、Ministry of Industry and Information Technology、Ministry of Justice、Ministry of Finance、Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development、The 10 ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Natural Resources respectively introduced their work around a package of incremental policies，Many ministries and commissions have been formed to work together、Good posture for "combination boxing"。

New app bet365 download measures。First, debt management，Increase the debt limit on a larger scale，Support local governments to resolve hidden debts。The second is in the capital and real estate markets，Creation of securities、Fund、Insurance company swap facility and stock buyback, holdings, and refinancing tools，Provide convenient conditions for capital inflow into the stock market；At the same time，Issue special bonds to support the revitalization of idle land。The third is to improve the level of financial services，The Ministry of Finance issued special government bonds again after 26 years，Supplementing the core tier-one capital of large state-owned commercial banks，Better enhance the ability of financial services to serve the real economy。The fourth is to focus on expanding domestic demand，Actively promote the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security capabilities in key areas ("double")、Promote the implementation of a new round of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in ("two news")，Let the benefits of “real money” reach consumers directly，And established China Resource Circulation Group to better serve the "two new" work；Actively cultivate digital consumption、New consumption formats such as green consumption。

　　There are more positive factors for app bet365 download improvement

Improvement of supply-side endogenous growth momentum。January-September 2024，Real gross domestic product (GDP) year-on-year growth 4.8%，Stronger than market expectations。First, industrial growth stopped falling and rebounded。January-September，my country’s industrial added value app bet365 download 5% year-on-year.7%，Among them, the added value of manufacturing industry app bet365 download 5% year-on-year.9%。September，The added value of industries above designated size rebounded year-on-year by 0.9 percentage points to 5.4%，Significantly exceeded market expectations；Among 619 products produced by industries above designated size，The output of 345 products has achieved year-on-year growth，Among them, the production of new energy vehicles app bet365 download as much as 48%.5%；Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is 49.8%，app bet365 download 0 from August.7 percentage points。The second is the accelerated recovery of the service industry economy。January-September，The added value of my country’s service industry app bet365 download 4 year-on-year.7%。September，Service industry production index app bet365 download 5 year-on-year.1%，app bet365 download 0 from August.5 percentage points。

The demand side is stabilizing and picking up。First, the quantity and quality of fixed asset investment increased。January-September，National fixed asset investment app bet365 download 3% year-on-year.4%，This is the first time that this indicator has stabilized after falling for five consecutive months，Including high-tech industry investment app bet365 download 10% year-on-year，Maintaining double-digit growth for 7 consecutive months。Second, the overall steady growth of the consumer market。January-September，Total retail sales of consumer goods app bet365 download 3% year-on-year.3%，National per capita consumption expenditure actually app bet365 download 5% year-on-year.3%。September，Total retail sales of consumer goods app bet365 download 3% year-on-year.2%，app bet365 download 1 from August.1 percentage point，Among them cars、The growth rate of retail sales of furniture products turned from negative to positive，Retail sales growth of home appliances and audio-visual equipment is the highest in recent years。Third, import and export maintain steady growth。January-September，China’s total import and export value in US dollars increased year-on-year by 3.4%，Affected by typhoons and rising base numbers in previous years，The year-on-year export growth rate in September has declined，But high technology、Exports of high value-added products still maintain a high growth rate。

Various policy dividends continue to be released。First, residents’ confidence in home ownership is gradually recovering。September，The real estate industry production index fell by 2% year-on-year.2%，The decline narrowed for 5 consecutive months。According to data from China Index Research Institute，October 14-20，The number of second-hand housing transactions in key cities across the country app bet365 download 12% month-on-month.8%，Year-on-year growth of 22.7%。Second, China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed obvious signs of rebound。After the financial management department released a strong positive signal，September 24-30，A-share Shanghai Composite Index from 2748.92 rose to 3336.50，Increase of 21%。October，Market trading volume continues to remain high。Third, the “double” and “two new” policies stimulate new momentum for investment and consumption。"Double" construction，From January to September, my country’s planned investment in projects with a total investment of 100 million yuan and above app bet365 download 7% year-on-year.1%，Promote the growth of all investments 3.9 percentage points。"Two New" work，From January to September, my country’s investment in equipment and tool purchases app bet365 download 16% year-on-year.4%，Promote the growth of all investments 2.1 percentage point；As of October 24th，More than 2.83 million applications for vehicle scrapping and renewal subsidies nationwide and vehicle replacement and renewal subsidies in various regions，1363.50,000 consumers purchased eight major categories of home appliances，Drive sales 913.400 million yuan。

　　app bet365 download effects and reform dividends are superimposed and released

Policy measures reflect a variety of considerations。First, combine long-term and short-term，A package of incremental policies includes lowering the deposit reserve ratio、Short-term policy tools such as trade-in of consumer goods，There is also app bet365 download support for local governments to carry out debt swaps and other policies that affect medium and long-term development，There are also “investing in people” policies such as raising the standard of student financial aid。The second is the combination of expectations and reality，Not only promotes the “double” and “two new” construction，Unleashing investment and consumption potential，Create two more structural monetary policy tools，Maintaining capital market stability。To achieve the 2024 economic growth target，Our country will also issue a 100 billion yuan central budget investment plan for 2025 and a 100 billion yuan "double" construction project list within the year，It is expected to drive a total investment of nearly one trillion yuan。

Policy measures focus on structural optimization。First, pay equal attention to demand and supply。On the one hand, continue to deepen the supply-side structural reform，Accelerate the construction of new infrastructure，Increase support for enterprises，Enhancing the adaptability of the supply side to mid-to-high-end demand。On the other hand, we focus on expanding domestic demand，Combining “double” and “two new” construction，Expand effective app bet365 download、Promote the continued expansion of commodity consumption。The second is to pay equal attention to consumption and app bet365 download。Different from previous periods of stable growth that mainly relied on app bet365 download in infrastructure construction，A package of incremental policies pays more attention to stimulating consumption，Including increasing support for specific groups，Expanded elderly care、Consumption of services such as childcare, etc.。The third is to pay equal attention to physical capital and human capital。Not only expand effective app bet365 download，Form physical workload，Also increase employment、Education、Strength of financial support in social security and other livelihood areas，Promote physical capital formation and human capital accumulation simultaneously。

Policy measures promote reform and innovation。First, incremental policies promote the implementation of comprehensively deepening reforms。my country will support local governments to resolve government debt risks、Increase financial transfer payments to local governments as an opportunity，Concentrate on launching a number of batches this year and next when conditions are ripe、Reform measures that are tangible and tangible，The process of fiscal and taxation system reform is expected to be accelerated。Meanwhile，The package of incremental policies will also explore the long-term effect of the policy mechanism、Institutionalization。For example，Develop guidelines for the construction of a unified national market、Released new version of negative list for market access、Establishing a future industrial app bet365 download growth mechanism、Improve the system to promote the deep integration of the real economy and the digital economy、Introducing opinions on improving the social credit system, etc.。Second, there is still much room for macroeconomic policies to be developed。The fourth quarter of 2024，There are 2 more in various parts of our country.3 trillion yuan of special bond funds can be arranged for use；There is still enough room for improvement in the fiscal deficit，The deficit rate is expected to increase in the future。Third, policy tools are constantly innovated。At present, nearly half of the incremental policy measures have been introduced and implemented，A number of policies and measures will be introduced in the future。2025，With the comprehensive deepening of reforms and the continued implementation of a package of incremental policies，Policy effects and reform dividends are superimposed and released，China’s economy will move toward higher quality、More efficient、Greener、Fairer、More secure、More sustainable development direction is steadily advancing。

　(The author is Secretary app bet365 download Party Committee app bet365 download Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher；Assistant Researcher at the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences；Associate researcher at the Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)