70 years since the founding of New China,Economic Structure、Cultural concepts、Changes in demographic characteristics and other aspects,Brings violent shock to the bet365 kentucky bonus code,Facing new problems and challenges。As the connection point between individuals and society,Families at different stages of the life cycle,Have different demands for public services and social governance;And whether bet365 kentucky bonus code needs can be met,It also directly affects bet365 kentucky bonus code well-being and development capacity building。In reverse,Atomic units as social components,bet365 kentucky bonus code changes can also trigger social changes。Then,Over the past 70 years,What changes have taken place in Chinese families?Response to this question,Can be viewed from multiple perspectives。This article starts from the perspective of bet365 kentucky bonus code cycle,Use the national census、1% population sample survey data and other literature,Combined the changes in the bet365 kentucky bonus code in the past 70 years, especially after the reform and opening up。American scholar Glick (P. C. Glick) in "The bet365 kentucky bonus code Cycle" published in 1947,Divide the bet365 kentucky bonus code cycle into formation、Extension、Stable、Shrink、6 stages of empty nest and disintegration。This division is more suitable for periods with higher fertility rates;Due to demographic changes、Modernization Process、In a situation where changes in the concept of marriage and bet365 kentucky bonus code have led to a serious decline in the number of births,bet365 kentucky bonus code cycles can be combined into forms、Expansion and Stability、Shrinking and Empty Nest、Four stages of disintegration。
bet365 kentucky bonus code formation period: the time of bet365 kentucky bonus code formation is postponed
The formation of a bet365 kentucky bonus code originates from the conclusion of marriage。With economic and social development,bet365 kentucky bonus code formation continues to be pushed back,But overall,The proportion of unmarried people after the age of 35 in China has not increased significantly,Traditional bet365 kentucky bonus code formation model still exists。
1.The average age at first marriage is N-shaped,From low to high、From high to low、Continue to rise。Big man getting married,The college girl is getting married,But how big is "big"?Data display from the “National Fertility Sampling Survey of One Thousandth Population” organized and implemented by the former National bet365 kentucky bonus code Planning Commission in 1982,The average age of first marriage for women increased from 18 in 1949.57 years old rose to 19 in 1960.57 years old、23 in 1980.05 years old,Slight decrease in 1981,is 22.82 years old。Fangfang’s calculation also found,During 1950-1970,The average age of first marriage for women increased from 18.age 68 to 20.19 years old;1971-1979,from 20.29 years old increased to 23.12 years old,Average annual growth rate accelerated。Zeng Yi’s calculation,The average age at first marriage from 1980 to 1984 was less than 23 years old;Male is 25.49 years old,Female is 22.80 years old,But male 23 years old、Most women marry for the first time when they are 20 years old。After reform and opening up,The age of first marriage is steadily postponed,26 years old in 2015,Further rise in 2018。Visible,Due to reasons such as the improvement of women’s education and economic status,The age at first marriage has increased by almost 10 years in 70 years。
2.More and more people of marriageable age have not yet started a bet365 kentucky bonus code before the age of 30。According to the "National Sampling Survey on the Fertility Rate of One Thousandth Population",If the age limit is 18 years old,The national average early marriage rate increased from 49 in 1949.3% dropped to 18 in 1970.6%、3 in 1982.8%;Calculated based on late marriage standards for marriage after the age of 23,The average late marriage rate for women increased from 6 in 1949.6% rose to 13 in 1970.8%、52 in 1980.8%。Census data shows,As time goes by,The proportion of singles in the 20-24 age group continues to grow;In the 25-29 age group,There are large differences in the proportion of unmarried people in different years,But it is also rising rapidly: the 2017 Ministry of Civil Affairs bulletin shows,The proportion of the number of marriages in this age group to the total number of marriages is 36.9%,The age of first marriage is significantly delayed。Although in some areas the proportion of people who are still unmarried after the age of 30 is quite high,For example, in Beijing in 1982, the proportion of unmarried people over 30 years old accounted for 10% of the population of the same age.3%,7 in 1990.6%,But from a national perspective,The proportion of people who have not yet started a bet365 kentucky bonus code after the age of 30 is not high: the proportion of unmarried women aged 30-34 is less than 3%,35-39 years old group is less than 2%,Less than 1% in the 40-44 age group。30 years old seems to be a critical point,95% of women will end their single life and start their own bet365 kentucky bonus code。
bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion and stability period:The bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion period is shortened and the stable period is extended
The bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion period begins with the birth of a child,Finally the birth of the last child;The period from the birth of the last child to the marriage of the first child is the bet365 kentucky bonus code stability period。Since the founding of New China,Although the age gap between first marriage and first childbirth fluctuates,But there is a shrinking trend;The bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion period is shortened and the stable period is extended,This has brought about significant changes in the bet365 kentucky bonus code structure。
1.The interval between first marriage and first childbirth is shortened,bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion speeds up。Zeng Yi’s calculation,In the early 1980s,The age of first childbearing in China is about 23-25 years old,The interval between first marriage and first childbirth is about 1.50—1.66 years;During 1980-1990,The age interval between first marriage and first childbirth is shortened;1990-2010,The interval between first marriage and first childbirth in the age group under 35 years old has not only not been extended,And there is a tendency to shorten,The average maximum interval is less than two years,Most age groups in most years within a year and a half。Perhaps the age of marriage is postponed,Drive people to have children as soon as possible;Maybe it’s more common to get pregnant out of wedlock,Reduced the interval between first marriage and first childbirth。
2.Evolution from a long expansion period but a short stable period to a greatly contracted expansion period but a long stable period。Du Peng’s research shows,China’s bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion period began to gradually shorten before the 1980s: the time difference between a woman’s first marriage and the end of childbirth increased from 15 in 1957.15 years dropped to 14 in 1964.74 years、9 in 1977.02 years、6 in 1981.24 years。Overall,70 years,The fertility level has dropped significantly: the crude birth rate has dropped from 36 in 1949.00‰ dropped to 12 in 2017.43‰;Total fertility rate from 6 more children in 1949、Less than 3 children in 1978、Replacement level in 1990 to today’s 1.6 children (varies with data)。Corresponding to this,The bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion period shows a conjoined U-shaped-inverted U-shaped change pattern。In the era of high fertility rate,A woman is about 40 years old to complete childbearing,Then,A bet365 kentucky bonus code raising the youngest child to adulthood,My mother is about 55 years old。Therefore,Early days of the founding of New China,The bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion period lasts longer,But as time goes by,bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion period shrinks、Stability period extended。
Changes in the bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion period and stable period,Closely related to the reduction in bet365 kentucky bonus code size。1947,bet365 kentucky bonus code size is 5.35 people,But in the first census of New China in 1953,bet365 kentucky bonus code size is less than 4.5 people;It rebounded during the second census in 1964;1974,bet365 kentucky bonus code size reaches the largest size since New China,But not more than 5 people;1990,bet365 kentucky bonus code size falls below 4 people for the first time,Slightly more than 3 in 2000.4 people,Only 3 in 2010 and 2015.1 person。In the 62 years from 1953 to 2015,bet365 kentucky bonus code size reduced by 31.1%,The smallest bet365 kentucky bonus code size in history。However,Changes in the bet365 kentucky bonus code life cycle are also related to changes in bet365 kentucky bonus code generations。Li Jinghan’s findings in Ding County, Hebei Province in 1930,The proportion of first-generation households is extremely low,Only 2.5%,There is not much difference between second-generation households and third-generation households,Both around 49%;Yang Junqi’s research shows,In the more than ten years after the launch of agricultural cooperation,The number of families consisting of more than two couples is gradually decreasing,Complex families with “three generations living under one roof” and “four generations living under one roof” are becoming increasingly rare。According to the latest four censuses,After 1982,The proportion of second-generation households shows an inverted U-shaped pattern (from 67 in 1982.3% rose to 68 in 1987.3%,Falled back below 50% of 2010);But,The proportion of third-generation households remains basically unchanged,Both fluctuate around 20%;The biggest change is the continuous increase of one generation of households。At the same time,During 1982-2010,The bet365 kentucky bonus code structure is very stable。Census and 1% sample survey data display,Since 1982,bet365 kentucky bonus code forms are more diverse,But nuclear families always account for about 2/3 of all families,The main bet365 kentucky bonus code accounts for about 1/5,Single-person household less than 1/10。This not only reveals that two generations of families occupy an important position in history,Also shows that although social transformation has greatly reduced bet365 kentucky bonus code size,But failed to change the main form of the bet365 kentucky bonus code accordingly,No disruptive changes in parents living with unmarried children or a pair of married children。Diversity and stability of living arrangements,With changes in structural factors (such as the dissolution and reorganization of marriages、Geographical mobility of population, etc.) are closely related。
Shrinkage and empty nest bet365 kentucky bonus code:Empty nest has become a common bet365 kentucky bonus code pattern for middle-aged and elderly people
bet365 kentucky bonus code shrinkage begins with the marriage of the first child、Establish another portal;When all the children leave home,The bet365 kentucky bonus code has entered the empty nest stage。70 years,Shortened bet365 kentucky bonus code systole、The empty nest period is extended,And the interval between the two stages is shortened or even overlaps,Empty nest has become a common bet365 kentucky bonus code pattern for middle-aged and elderly people。
1.The interval between contraction and empty nest is shortened。Data display from the former National Health and bet365 kentucky bonus code Planning Commission,2010,Families in the shrinking and empty-nest periods account for 45% of all families.6%。1980, especially before 1972,The high fertility level makes the gap between the contraction period and the empty nest period of the bet365 kentucky bonus code very long,But after that,Especially for families formed after 1980,Only one (two) children at most,This shortens the bet365 kentucky bonus code contraction period,Extended empty nest period。And,The shrinkage period and the empty-nest period of one-child families coincide with each other;Even with two children,Except for a few families,The interval between the contraction period and the empty nest period is only about 4-5 years。
2.The starting point of empty nest has been advanced from old age to late middle age,Empty nest survival time extended。Reduction in the number of children,Resulting in the early formation of the empty nest period。Click "post-80s" female 25 years old、The average urban age of first marriage for men is 27 years old,Two years between first marriage and first childbirth,The only child left his bet365 kentucky bonus code of origin after turning 18 years old,Parents living alone are calculated as starting from an empty nest,Couples enter the empty nest period between the ages of 45 and 47,Entering old age after living in an empty-nest bet365 kentucky bonus code for about 15 years。Wu Fan’s research findings,20th century 40、50、The average age of the heads of households in the three birth cohorts in the 1960s when the bet365 kentucky bonus code entered the empty nest period was 57.5 years old、51.3 years old and 44.4 years old,That is, families formed after 1980 compared with families formed in the 1960s,Entering the empty nest period about 13 years early。
3.The proportion of empty-nest households continues to rise。1982 census data shows,Empty-nest households account for 12 of the total elderly households.64%;Data from a sample survey of the population over 60 bet365 kentucky bonus code conducted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 1987 shows that,The proportion of empty-nest households is 16.3%;According to data from the National Committee on Aging,1999,Empty-nest families account for 25.8%;2016 China Elderly Social Tracking Survey Data Display,The empty-nest rate among elderly households has exceeded half。Therefore,The proportion of elderly people living in empty-nest households is increasing: according to 1990 census data,1/4 of the elderly live in empty-nest families;Data from "China's Aging Development Report (2013)" shows,2013,Nearly 50% of the elderly population are empty nesters,The number exceeds 100 million。One-child families enter the empty-nest period at an earlier age,Longer duration。However,Some empty nest families are just theories rather than real empty nests,My daughter’s departure from home may be temporary;Structural or emotional factors may drive children who have moved away from their parental families to return to their parental families,Or parents may move in with their children。In rural areas,Parents and children may live next to each other,This is not a real empty nest,Therefore, the actual proportion of empty-nest households may be lower than the level presented by the data。
bet365 kentucky bonus code disintegration: obvious aging characteristics at the bet365 kentucky bonus code level
bet365 kentucky bonus code disintegration refers to the period from the death of one spouse to the death of the other。With the development of economy and society and the resulting improvement of living standards、Improvement of public health and medical conditions,People’s lifespan is getting longer,The trend of population aging at the macro level is becoming increasingly severe、The aging characteristics at the bet365 kentucky bonus code level are also more obvious。
1.The total number of elderly bet365 kentucky bonus code members continues to grow,Age structure aging,The proportion of elderly households increases。Shortening of bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion period,Due to the decrease in the number of children,This in turn will trigger the aging of the bet365 kentucky bonus code age structure。Census data display,1982,The number of people aged 65 and above in the bet365 kentucky bonus code is only 0.22 people,But it rose to 0 in 2010.41 people;The number of children aged 0-14 years old increased from 1 in 1982.48 people dropped to 0 in 2010.51 people。Visible,During 1982-2010,The number of elderly people in the bet365 kentucky bonus code has nearly doubled,The number of children has decreased by about 2/3。At the same time,According to census and 1% population sample survey data,2000、2010 and 2015,The total number of households nationwide is 3.40.5 billion households、4.01.5 billion households and 4.10.1 billion households。2015,Among all households,More than 100 million households have at least one elderly person aged 65 and above,More than 1/4 of all households,An increase of more than 3 percentage points compared with 2010,An increase of nearly 5 percentage points compared with 2000;The number of households with two senior citizens aged 65 and above accounts for 9 of the total households.27%,About 3 percentage points higher than 2010、Nearly 4 percentage points in 2000。
2.bet365 kentucky bonus code duration extension,The pace of disintegration has been postponed accordingly。bet365 kentucky bonus code disintegration is directly affected by average life expectancy;The longer people live,The later the bet365 kentucky bonus code disintegrates。In the 70 years after the founding of New China,With the development of economy and society,Per capita life expectancy has greatly increased。Before 1949,The average life expectancy in China is about 35 years old,About 47 years old in 1950;After rapid development in the 1970s,Grown to 67 in 1981.9 years old;2017,China’s average life expectancy reaches 77 years,Even over 80 years old in some areas。70 years,China’s average life expectancy has increased by at least 42 years。The extension of life span will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the shape and duration of the bet365 kentucky bonus code,The time of bet365 kentucky bonus code disintegration is greatly delayed。
In short,bet365 kentucky bonus code life cycle has a profound imprint of the times。Over the past 70 years,The occurrence of various major social events,Having a huge impact on the traditional bet365 kentucky bonus code life cycle,The six-stage model of the bet365 kentucky bonus code cycle has also been profoundly reconstructed。Although the resilience and resilience of Chinese families are still strong,But in the new era,The bet365 kentucky bonus code changes that have been or are currently going through will indeed pose a major challenge to the future development of the bet365 kentucky bonus code。Delaying the age of first marriage and first childbirth,Meaning that the bet365 kentucky bonus code’s formation and expansion periods are moved back accordingly,This directly reduces women’s lifetime fertility rate,Make the bet365 kentucky bonus code expansion period and stable period intersect、The contraction period overlaps with the empty nest period,Reconstructing the age characteristics of bet365 kentucky bonus code cycle。These changes in turn have a domino effect,How to simplify the bet365 kentucky bonus code structure、Reduce the bet365 kentucky bonus code’s resources for raising children and old age and increase their burden,In turn, the bet365 kentucky bonus code’s focus on material things、Demands for psychological, spiritual and other social pension resources。To address these challenges,We must introduce bet365 kentucky bonus code-friendly childbirth as the core、nursing care、Elderly Care Support Policy,Complete the shortcomings of public services in the bet365 kentucky bonus code field;Must clarify bet365 kentucky bonus code、Government and social responsibility boundaries,Clearly define the role of the government as a supporter in the field of bet365 kentucky bonus code function;Must promote bet365 kentucky bonus code (capacity) building,Maintain and strengthen bet365 kentucky bonus code resilience,Strengthen bet365 kentucky bonus code unity and cohesion,Thereby placing the bet365 kentucky bonus code in a new historical position,Continue to fulfill your role of promoting individual development、Core field responsibilities for promoting social harmony and stability。
(This article is part of the National Natural Science Foundation’s “Research on the relationship between bet365 kentucky bonus code-friendly policies and women’s bet365 kentucky bonus code-work balance under the ‘universal two-child policy’” (71673287) and the major research project of the National Social Science Foundation “Urban Areas under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy 0— Research on the childcare service system for 3-year-old infants and young children” (17ZDA122) phased results)
(Author’s unit: National Institute of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of bet365 kentucky bonus code、Institute of Gerontology;Department of Demography, Renmin University of bet365 kentucky bonus code)
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