In recent years，Some scholars said，The breakthroughs of today’s bet365 offer development and technological progress tend to weaken，The contribution of bet365 offer and technological innovation to economic growth and improvement of human living standards is not as impressive as in the past。Some studies even lead to the conclusion that the cost of bet365 offer discovery is getting higher and higher，It is increasingly difficult to achieve revolutionary results。On related issues，Our reporter interviewed Mikko Packalen, associate professor of economics at the University of Waterloo in Canada。

　　bet365 offer productivity decline

"China Social Sciences Journal": Mentioned in "Stagnation and Scientific Incentives" (Stagnation and Scientific Incentives), which you co-authored with Jay Bhattacharya, professor of medicine at Stanford University in the United States，One of the reasons for the stagnation of scientific thought is improper bet365 offer incentive mechanism。Please introduce the core content of this research。

Parker Allen: Over the past half century，Citation rate has become the main indicator for evaluating bet365 offer contributions，This causes the behavior and rewards of scientists to tilt towards progressive science。Incremental science focuses on improving established conclusions rather than exploring entirely new ideas，It is not useless，But when this type of science is overly favored，Scientists’ attention to new ideas and willingness to explore will decrease，Major breakthroughs will stagnate。The life cycle of bet365 offer consists of three stages: Exploration、Breakthrough、Progressive development。Due to the slow development of bet365 offer in its infancy，Early exploratory work often has little impact，Difficult to obtain high citation rate，But it laid the necessary foundation for future breakthroughs。Our research shows from an empirical perspective，Novelty and impact are related but distinct measures，If novelty indicators are included in bet365 offer evaluation，More groundbreaking、Bolder research may increase。

《Chinese Social Sciences Journal》: Nicholas Bloom, professor of economics at Stanford University, USA、Scholars such as John Van Reenen, professor of management and economics at MIT, target multiple industries、Product、The company discovered after conducting research，It is increasingly difficult to produce new bet365 offer results。From the 1930s to the first decade of the 21st century，The total factor productivity of the U.S. economy fell slightly，But the number of effective bet365 offer researchers has increased more than 20 times。What do you think about this？

Parker Allen: A certain degree of fluctuation in bet365 offer productivity is not surprising，But the decades-long landslide is not an accident。This indicates a systemic failure in converting investment in research into new knowledge that is actually useful。Reduced bet365 offer productivity does not necessarily mean that innovation is getting harder，Perhaps there are still many great mysteries to be revealed，It’s just that people’s exploration methods are wrong；Perhaps today’s scientists and innovators are investing their energy in the same direction as half a century ago、It was different a century ago。Changes in motivational factors，The behavior will also change，This applies to everyone。As investment in research and innovation increasingly tilts towards progressive science，Scientists and innovators will have less incentive to invest in “high-risk exploration”。

Multiple factors cause “bet365 offer stagnation”

"China Social Sciences Journal": In addition to improper incentive mechanism，What other reasons lead to “bet365 offer stagnation”？

Parker Allen: The first reason is the aging of scientific researchers。Research shows，The average age of scientists today is much higher than it was a few decades ago。On the one hand, it is related to the general population trend，On the other hand, it is related to the cancellation of the mandatory retirement age in universities and bet365 offer institutions。At the same time，Experienced researchers are more favored by research funders。On average，Older scientists are less receptive to new ideas。In another study, Bhattacharya and I analyzed more than 20 million biomedical papers and found that，Young scientists are indeed more likely to try new ideas。However，As far as I know，Chinese scientific community has not been affected by the aging population。The rapid growth of China’s bet365 offer investment began decades ago，The younger bet365 offer workforce is an important reason why China’s bet365 offer level has entered the forefront of the world so quickly，China’s young scientists are very motivated to explore and try new ideas。

The second reason is that people’s belief in achieving breakthroughs wanes。The idea that innovation is becoming increasingly difficult is quickly becoming popular，Resulting in a reluctance to explore and fund bold new research directions。The process of achieving breakthrough results may "timeout"，This is expected，But how to deal with this situation is the key。In my opinion，Until we have absolutely conclusive evidence，Don’t believe in assumptions such as “bet365 offer is becoming increasingly difficult”，Because these assumptions will inevitably fulfill themselves。

The third reason is the popularity of social media。On social media，A person’s value is largely reflected in the number of “fans”，Publishing opinions that go against the mainstream consensus will lead to ridicule，Resulting in the loss of “fans”。This drives scientists to echo the public opinion，Enter "popular"、A mature field，Instead of conducting more novel research。The idea of ​​becoming popular is harmful to science，Because the most valuable bet365 offer advances often come from researchers who have worked hard in obscurity for many years。For example，If a scientist discovers a mystery or develops an insight with great potential，But initially few peers believed it，Then he can only gradually prove that he is right。I worry that social media is tempting young scientists to become obsessed with topics that promise quick fame，Abandon exploratory research in new fields。

"China Social Sciences Journal": Is scientific development related to the way of cultivating bet365 offer capabilities？

Parker Allen: I think，The current scientific talent training model has flaws。First，Independent research career starts too late。Because the average age of current scientists is older，The content they teach their students may be outdated。And those who can apply for research funding are usually older scholars rather than doctoral students or researchers in the early stages of their careers，Young scholars have little power to decide on research topics。Also，Nowadays, the number of years of doctoral education is very long，Leading young scholars to take too long before truly starting their independent scientific careers。If young scholars had more “funding freedom”，And you don’t have to wait until your 30s to embark on an independent bet365 offer path，Then they may be more adventurous in choosing what to study、More exploring spirit。

Secondly，Lack of education on the process of bet365 offer progress。Our science education does not pay much attention to explaining to students how long the process of bet365 offer breakthroughs in history has been，Therefore，Students’ openness to those that lay the foundation for great breakthroughs、Lack of attention to exploratory research。French scientist Emmanuelle Charpentier (Emmanuelle Charpentier) and American scientist Jennifer Doudna (Jennifer Doudna) are famous for their discovery of one of the sharpest tools in genetic technology, "CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing technology" Awarded the 2020 Nobel Prize in Chemistry。In fact，Research on this gene began in the late 1980s，But breakthrough progress was achieved at the beginning of the first decade of the 21st century，The outstanding contributions of Charpentier and Doudna are based on the joint efforts of a large number of scientists over the past few decades。

《China Social Sciences Journal》: What do you think about the role of enterprises in promoting bet365 offer progress、The role of spreading emerging technologies？

Parker Allen: In History，Enterprises have made important contributions to scientific progress，But big business investment in science has declined in recent decades。According to research by scholars such as Sharon Belenzon, professor of strategic studies at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business，The number of papers published by scientific researchers from large companies in multiple industries decreased from 1980 to 2007，But the number of patents filed by enterprises increased。Obviously，Large companies tend to value the "golden eggs" of science (embodied in patents) rather than the "goose that lays the golden eggs" itself (bet365 offer capabilities)，Also prefers short-term incremental innovations that do not require large-scale scientific investment。I think，This kind of performance of enterprises is the natural result of the current lack of truly groundbreaking exploration in the scientific community。If scientists carry out more openness、Exploratory research，Companies will also have more incentive to increase investment in bet365 offer，And fund research that bridges basic scientific discoveries with practical applications。

Enterprise participation is important for scientific development，Because its profit motive controls the research direction of academia to a certain extent。First，The business community’s rewards for bet365 offer results depend on the final actual output impact，Research that brings great practical value may not win awards from the academic community (high citation rate、Praise from peers)。If there are no rewards from the corporate world，These studies are likely to be abandoned by scientists initially。Secondly，If all bet365 offer turns to topics that are not helpful for practical applications，Companies will no longer fund the corresponding fields or hire graduates in these fields。

　Resist bet365 offer pessimism

《China Social Sciences Journal》: Today，We have advanced research equipment、Lab，The education level of the people has also improved significantly。Although bet365 offer funding varies from country to country，But overall，Economic conditions have improved significantly compared with the 20th century and even longer ago。However，New scientific ideas seem to be less and less likely to appear。Is there a certain pattern: science progresses to a certain stage，The difficulty and cost of discovering new ideas begins to rise dramatically？

Parker Allen: The significant decline in bet365 offer productivity is a fact。In a narrow sense，Science and innovation have stalled，But this may be because people discovered that the inquiry was being conducted in the wrong way。Science has expanded massively，The mechanism supporting bet365 offer and innovation has not yet caught up with this change in time，Nor does it give scientists and innovators enough drive to choose bold、Research directions that may fail but may also lead to important breakthroughs。One should be cautious about the assumption that science is getting harder。If scientists generally believe that it is almost impossible to uncover major mysteries，It is very likely to try less，Enterprises and research funding agencies will also be less willing to fund research that boldly ventures into unknown areas，Hypothesis will become reality。

One reason why we must resist bet365 offer pessimism is that there is no shortage of arguments in history that "important bet365 offer discoveries have been exhausted"，But that’s not the case。For example，The discovery of the New World in America broke the bet365 offer pessimism of Europeans in previous centuries，The subsequent bet365 offer revolution greatly enhanced mankind’s understanding of nature。Late 19th century，Some well-known physicists claim that all major bet365 offer mysteries have been revealed，The creation of the theory of relativity and quantum mechanics soon proved that this conclusion was premature。

Of course，We cannot rule out the possibility that at some point humanity will run out of new ideas，But before giving in to pessimism，We should try to reverse the stagnation of bet365 offer and innovation through various ways。Future，We should make it a global goal to develop and implement initiatives that rekindle bet365 offer and innovation，Cannot surrender without a fight。

"Chinese Social Sciences Journal": At the practical level，What measures can bet365 offer and funding agencies take to promote the development of exploratory science？

Parker Allen: I think，You can start from the following aspects。First，Redesigning the bet365 offer incentive mechanism，Increase attention and rewards for the novelty of bet365 offer。Secondly，More funding for promising young scientists and shorter doctoral education years，To equip young scientists with the conditions to carry out independent research earlier。Finally，Discuss how scientists can balance the goal of popularizing knowledge when using social media，Avoiding rapid fame has a negative motivating effect on young scientists。