In recent years，Some scholars said，The breakthrough of scientific development and technological progress is weakened today，The contribution of scientific and technological innovation to economic growth and the improvement of human living standards is not as breathtaking as in the past。Even some research -oriented conclusions: the cost of scientific discovery is getting higher and higher，The difficulty of achieving revolutionary results is getting bigger and bigger。For related questions，The reporter interviewed Mikko Packalen, associate professor of Economics, Canada University of Economics,。

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"Journal of Social Sciences": You and Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medical at Stanford University in the United States, mentioned the Stagnation and Scientific Incentives，One of the reasons for the stagnation of scientific thought is improper scientific research incentive mechanism。Please introduce the core content of this research。

Park Allen: In the past half a century，Citation rate has become the main indicator of the contribution of scientific research，This leads to the behavior of scientists and the rewards of scientists towards gradual science。Progressive science focuses on improving the established conclusions rather than exploring new ideas，It is not useless，But when this type of science is excessively favored，Scientists' attention and inquiry willingness of new ideas will decrease，The emergence of major breakthroughs will stagnate。The life cycle of scientific research contains three stages: exploration、Breakthrough、Progressive development。Due to the slow development of scientific research at the bud stage，Early exploration work usually has a little influence，It is difficult to get a high reference rate，But it laid a necessary foundation for future breakthrough progress。Bet365 app download Our research shows from an empirical perspective，Novelty and influence are related but different measures，If novel indicators are included in scientific research evaluation，More pioneering、Bold research may increase。

"Journal of Social Sciences": Nicholas Bloom, a professor of economics at Stanford University in the United States (Nicholas Bloom)、Professor John Van Reenn, a professor of management and economics at the MIT of Massachusetts Institute of Technology、Product、Announcement after studying it，It is getting more and more difficult to produce new scientific results。From the 1930s to the first ten years of the 21st century，The full factor productivity of the US economy decreases slightly，But the number of effective scientific researchers has increased by more than 20 times。What do you think about this?

Parker Allen: a certain degree of scientific research productivity fluctuation is not surprising，but decades of landslides are not accidental。This indicates that the process of transformation of scientific research investment into actual useful new knowledge has suffered systemic failure。Decrease in scientific research productivity may not mean that innovation is becoming more and more difficult，Maybe there are still many major mysteries to be unveiled，It's just that people's exploration methods are wrong; maybe today's scientists and innovators have the direction of energy and half a century、Different from a century ago。Incentive factors change，behavior will change with it，This is suitable for everyone。With scientific research and innovative investment increasingly inclined scientific science，Scientists and innovators will be weakened for the motivation for "high -risk exploration" to invest。

A variety of factors cause "scientific stagnation"

"China Social Sciences": Except for improper incentive mechanism，What are the reasons for "scientific stagnation"?

Park Allen: The first reason is the aging of scientific researchers。Study shows，The average age of scientists today is much higher than decades ago。On the one hand, it is related to the general population trend，On the other hand, it is related bet365 Play online games to the cancellation of the compulsory retirement age of universities and scientific research institutions。At the same time，Experienced researchers are also favored by scientific research funders。On average，A greater scientist's acceptance of new ideas is lower。I and Battaria and I analyzed more than 20 million biomedical papers in another study，The probability of young scientists trying new ideas is indeed greater。but，As far as I know，China's scientific community has not been impacted by population aging。China Scientific Research Investment has grown rapidly in decades ago，The younger scientific research labor force is an important reason why Chinese scientific research can enter the forefront of the world so quickly，The enthusiasm of Chinese young scientists to explore and try new ideas is very high。

The second reason is that people have achieved breakthrough beliefs。Innovation is becoming more and more difficult.，As a result, people are unwilling to explore and support bold new research directions。The process of making breakthrough results may be "timeout"，This is the expected，But how to deal with this situation is the key。In my opinion，Before having absolute conclusive evidence，It should not be believed，Because these assumptions will inevitably realize。

The third reason is the popularity of social media。On social media，The value of a person is largely reflected as the "fan" quantity，The view that contrary to the mainstream consensus will be laughed at，Leading "fan" loss。This drives scientists to associate with the public，Enter "Popular"、A mature field，instead of carrying out a more novel research。The idea of ​​making yourself popular is harmful to science，Because of the most valuable scientific progress often comes from researchers who have been working hard for many years。For example，If a scientist discovered some kind of mystery or formed a huge potential insight，But there was almost no peer believed at first，So he can only gradually prove that he is the right。I am worried that social media seduce young scientists to be keen on topics that are expected to make themselves bet365 best casino games quickly fame，Abandoning the exploration of the new field。

"China Social Sciences": Is scientific stagnation and scientific research talent cultivation?

Park Allen: I think，The current scientific talent training mode is defective。First，Independent graduate career starts too late。Due to the current average age of scientists，The content they teach to the students may be outdated。And those who can apply for scientific research funds are usually older scholars rather than doctoral students or in the early stages of their career，Young scholars have a small decision on research topics。Another，Now the age of doctoral education is very long，As a result, young scholars spent too long before they really started their independent scientific research career。If young scholars have more "freedom of funding"，And without waiting in his 30s to take an independent scientific research road，So they may dare to adventure when choosing the research content、More exploration spirit。

Next，Lack of education for scientific progress。Our scientific education does not pay much attention to explaining to students how long the scientific breakthrough process in history is，So，Students' opening sex for those who laid the foundation for the great breakthrough、Exploratory research lacks attention。French scientist Emmanuelle Charpentier and American scientist Jennifer Doudna, one of the sharp tools in genetic technology "CRISPR/CAS9 Gene Editing Technology" for discovering genetic technology "" Graduated the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2020。In fact，The study of the gene began in the late 1980s，But the breakthrough progress did not achieve in the first ten years of the 21st century，The outstanding contributions of Schal's unusons and Moralna are based on the joint efforts of a large number of scientists in the past few decades。

"China Social Sciences": What do you think of companies to promote scientific progress、What is the role played by spreading emerging technologies?

Park Allen: In history，Enterprises have made important contributions to scientific progress，But in recent decades, large companies have reduced their investment in science。Studies based on scholars such as Sharon Belenzon, a professor of strategic research at Duke University Fulk bet365 Play online games Business School in the United States，1980-2007 The number of papers published by scientific researchers in large enterprises in many industries decreased，But the patent increase declared by the enterprise。Obviously，Large enterprises tend to pay attention to the "golden eggs" (reflected as patents) instead of "scientific research ability)，And a short -term gradual innovation that does not require large -scale scientific investment。I think，This performance of an enterprise is the lack of natural and pioneering natural results in the scientific community now。If scientists develop more opening sex、Explorest research，Enterprises will also be more motivated to increase scientific research，and provide funds for the research that set up bridges between basic scientific discovery and actual applications。

The participation of an enterprise is very important for scientific development，Because its profit -making motivation is around the research direction of the academic world to a certain extent。First，The reward of scientific research results in the business community depends on the actual actual output effect，Research that brings great actual value may not be able to win the reward in the academic world (high reference rate、Praise of peers)。If there is no reward from the business community，These studies are likely to be abandoned by scientists at first。Next，If scientific research is all shifted to a topic that does not help actual applications，Enterprises will no longer support the corresponding areas or graduates in these fields。

　Anti -scientific pessimism

"China Social Sciences": Now，We have advanced research equipment、Laboratory，The education level of the public has also increased significantly。Although the scientific research funding of various countries is different，But overall，Economic conditions are significantly improved from the 20th century or even longer.。But，New scientific thought seems to be increasingly difficult to appear。Whether there is a certain law: scientific progress to a certain stage，The difficulty and cost of discovering the new ideas have begun to rise sharply?

Bet365 lotto review Parker Allen: A significant decline in scientific research and productivity is a fact。In a narrow sense,，Science and innovation stagnation，But this may be because people find that the method of inquiry is wrong。Scientific cause has expanded on a large scale，The mechanism that supports scientific research and innovation has not kept this change in time，There is no enough driving force for scientists and innovators to choose bold、It may fail but may also bring important breakthrough research directions。People should be cautious to treat the increasing difficulty of science。If scientists generally believe that it is almost impossible to reveal the major mystery，It is likely to reduce attempts，The willingness to fund the research on bold and unknown research on enterprises and scientific research funding will also weaken，Assuming will become reality。

One reason we must resist scientific pessimism is that there are many arguments in history that "important scientific discoveries are poor"，But this is not the case。For example，The discovery of the New World in the Americas broke the scientific pessimism of Europeans for centuries.，The subsequent scientific revolution has greatly enhanced human understanding of nature。At the end of the 19th century，Some well -known physicists claim that the mysteries of major science have been revealed by all，The creation of the theory and quantum mechanics in the short after that proves this judgment prematurely。

Of course，We cannot rule out the possibility of the depletion of human new ideas at a certain moment，But before yielding to pessimistic attitude，You should try to reverse the situation of science and innovation stagnation through multiple channels。Future，We should take the formulation and implementation of various types of measures aimed at re -igniting science and innovative fires as a global goal，Can't help but fall。

"China Social Sciences": at the actual level，What measures can scientific research and funding institutions take to promote the development of scientific science?

Park Allen: I think，You can start from the following aspects。First，Reduce the scientific research incentive bet365 Play online games mechanism，Increases the importance and rewards of novelty scientific research。Next，Provide more funds for young scientists with potential and shorten the time of doctoral education，Make young scientists have the conditions to carry out independent research earlier。Last，Discussion on how scientists use social media how to take into account the goal of popularizing knowledge，Avoiding fast -name on a negative incentive for young scientists。