The rating agency's judgment of credit willingness and credit ability of the rating agency to perform debt liability and credit ability，It is a key indicator of international investors' reference。Recent，A economics research team led by the University of Cambridge, England, used an artificial intelligence model to simulate the impact of climate change on sovereign credit rating，and issued relevant reports。Report display，Unless it takes action to reduce carbon emissions，Otherwise, the sovereign credit rating of many economies may fall in the next 10 years。

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The research object of this research is the future sovereign credit rating of 108 countries，Forecast results cover the next 10 years、30 years、50 years and the end of the 21st century。Research indicates，Under the circumstances of the Paris Agreement，If the global temperature rises within 2 ° C，The sovereign credit rating of each economy will not be short -term due to climate change，The long -term impact of global bet365 live casino games warming will also be controlled at the lowest level。If measures are not taken to curb greenhouse gas emissions，So by 2030，Average rating of 63 countries will decrease at least 1 level。If you do not perform a significant emission reduction，to the end of the 21st century，Average rating of 80 countries will decrease by 2.48 levels，India and Canada's rating will drop 5 levels。

The decline in credit rating caused by climate change will cause interest to pay additional sovereign debt in the parties，And this is just a small part of economic consequences caused by unlimited carbon emissions in the next 80 years。until 2100，The world may cause 137 billion to $ 205 billion in losses every year。

This artificial intelligence model predicting the sovereign credit rating of various countries is generated by the rating of a large international rating company in 2015-2020。Researchers combine these data with the assessment of the climate economic model and the evaluation of natural disaster risks，Get a series of "Climate Intelligence" credit rating in a series of global warming situations。Researchers said their predictions were "extremely conservative"，Because this data only tracks the rise of temperature。bet365 live casino games When their model is included in the climate change that changes over time，When the various extreme weather events we are witnessing，The phenomenon of decline in credit rating and increasing related costs becomes more and more serious。

Research participants、Researcher Kamiar Mohaddes, a researcher at the School of Management of Cambridge University, said，If the current carbon emissions trajectory is maintained，The sovereign credit rating of most countries in the sample will be reduced by 2030，The sovereign credit rating of almost all countries will decline in 2100。Although it is difficult to comply with the Paris Agreement，But the prediction indicates，Strict climate policy will significantly reduce the impact on rating。

　　Rating agencies need to pay more attention to climate change

Researchers said，Green Financial Index currently，such as "Environment、Social and Governance "(ESG) rating，There is a phenomenon of disconnection from science。

Research participants、Matthew Agarwala, a researcher at the Institute of Public Policy of Cambridge University, said，ESG rating market is expected to exceed $ 1 billion this year，But it lacks the basis of climate science。The threat to the national economy is getting greater and greater with the change Bet365 lotto review of climate change，Debors of various countries will become more difficult，The cost will also be higher。

Agavara said，Linking climate science with indicators that have been embedded in the financial system，It can evaluate climate risk without damage to scientific credibility and economic effectiveness。

From the long run，Climate change may bring huge challenges to the sovereign credit rating of the global economy and economies。This prediction is not worrying about the sky。Comparison of comparison，From January 2020 to the present，The economic turmoil caused by the popularity of the new crown pneumonia caused the rating of 48 sovereign countries to be reduced by the three major rating agencies。Agavala talk about，The fiscal consequences caused by the epidemic have made the financial minister of many countries panic，They should seize this opportunity now，Investment in decarburization and environmental recovery projects that can stimulate economic growth，To prevent climate change from further impacting public finances。

　　The importance of long -term evaluation is increasingly prominent

This study indicates，Even if the goal set by the Paris Agreement is achieved as scheduled，bet365 live casino games Global sovereign debt will still be affected by long -term climate change。until 2100，Global sovereign credit rating may be reduced by an average of 0.65 levels，The annual interest expenditure of sovereign debt will increase up to $ 33 billion。

The research team also calculated the decline in sovereign credit rating to the chain effect of company rating and debt in 28 countries。They found，Under the "Paris Agreement" framework，until 2100，End cost of global companies will be as high as $ 12 billion，If you do not take action to reduce carbon emissions，This amount will be as high as $ 62 billion。

Research participants、Former S & P chief sovereign rating officer Moritz Kraemer said，The prediction of the sovereign debt for the rating agency is rarely exceeded 3 years。Investors are holding government bonds that are getting longer and longer。The short -term evaluation of the rating agency did not provide investors with a reliable standard for measuring credit risk exposure，And this risk exposure may continue until the next 100 years。

Kremo said，We need to establish a credit rating system with a long -term vision，and the latest climate science is important to achieve this goal。The research team said，They follow the "First Principles"，Financial practices that bet365 live casino games are close to climate science and real world as much as possible。

Matt Burke, a researcher at the Institute of Public Policy of Cambridge University, said，Artificial intelligence may completely change our climate risk assessment and environment、Method of social governance rating，But we must ensure that the foundation of the evidence can be triad。

According to this study，For developing countries with lower credit rating, countries are expected to be more seriously affected by climate change，and the country with a higher scoring may face more serious credit rating down，This is also in line with the essence of sovereign rating。