There are differences in the global economic recovery
April 12, 2021 09:34 Source: "China Social Sciences", April 12, 2021, Issue 2144 Author: Reporter Yan Yong

The International Monetary Fund Organization recently released the latest issue of "World Economic Outlook Report",It is estimated that the global economy will increase by 6% in 2021,0.5 percentage points by raising from January,and global economic growth in 2022 will slow to 4.4%。2021,China's economy will have better performance,But the global economy will still face multiple challenges in the future。

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Report name,Global economic prospects are still highly uncertain。Current,There are differences in economic recovery in various countries and fields。Global economic prospects depends not only on the results of anti -epidemic in various countries,It also depends on the game effect of hedging epidemic in various countries。

Karen Dynan, a senior researcher at Peterson International Institute of International Economic Research, thinks,Recent global economic prospects forecast more optimistic than before,The reason is that vaccine development and vaccination speed Bet365 app download faster than expected,Fiscal support of various countries is also stronger than expected。So,2021 and 2022,Global will usher in a large rise in various economic activities。

In the aspect of the Organization of the International Monetary Fund, Tobias Adrian,The manifestation of China ’s response to the new crown pneumonia is impressive。He said,2020,GDP China has increased by 2.3%,It is expected that it will increase by 8.4%by the end of 2021,5.6%growth in 2022。This means,The impact of China's economy suffered a new crown pneumonia.。

Adrian compares the impact of this epidemic on the Chinese economy with the 2008 financial crisis。He thinks,China actively responds to the epidemic of new crown pneumonia,The economy has returned to normal level at mid 2020,Farly leading other countries in the world。China has adopted a more powerful epidemic prevention and control measures than other countries,This helps the rapid recovery of the Chinese economy。This is a major test after the Chinese economy in 2008 after the 2008 financial crisis,But China's performance is very commendable。

  Economic recovery unbalanced economic recovery

  International Monetary Fund Organization Forecast,2021 The US economy will increase by 6.4%,2022 will increase 3.5%。Federal government's $ 1.9 trillion rescue plan supports the growth of the US economy,At the same time,Accelerated vaccine also began to let more Americans return to the restaurant、Bar、Stores and airports。The economic growth rate of 19 member states in the euro zone will reach 4.4%in 2021,will reach 3.8%in 2022。It is expected that the economic growth rate of Japan in 2021 is 3.3%,2022 is 2.5%。

Gita Gopinath, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, said,The way to get rid of this public health crisis and economic crisis is becoming increasingly clear,But the situation of economic recovery of various countries may be unbalanced。Fast recovery of the US economy means,US dollar interest rate may rise in an "unexpected way",and make the global financial market turbulent,Make investors withdraw from some heavy innovation、Emerging markets with debt。In those poor countries that cannot afford the large -scale government stimulus plan and rely on tourism,,The economic rebound speed will be slow。The economic damage caused by the public health crisis is reversing global poverty reduction results,Compared with data before the epidemic of new crown pneumonia,Global extreme poor people in 2020 may increase 95 million people。Bet365 lotto review And,The epidemic has accelerated the improvement of automation and the development of e -commerce,Many jobs will no longer exist,But it also provides some new job opportunities。

From Dian's view,Different fiscal policies of various countries against the epidemic of new coronary pneumonia、Vaccine vaccination rate and potential factors will affect the economic growth rate of various countries。The United States will become a country with a faster growth rate in developed economies,and China and India will be among the best among emerging economies。Danan said,Part of the reason for the US economic recovery faster than Europe is that the former has a positive fiscal policy,and European financial response measures are small。Japan's decision to ban overseas tourists from participating in the Tokyo Olympics will hinder its economic recovery,The UK will also continue to be dragged down by the transition period of Brexit。China can take the lead in recovery in large emerging economies,The very important reason is that China effectively controlled the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020,The epidemic only caused indirect effect on China in 2020。Brazil is the only major economy that may occur in 2021,The continued spread of the new crown pneumonia bet365 Play online games has made the country's medical system overwhelmed,and cause heavy pressure to the economy。

  The global economy still faces multiple challenges

International Monetary Fund Organization Forecast,Expressing over time,The global economic rebound will gradually lose power,Return to the level of growth slightly higher than 3%before the new crown pneumonia epidemic.。Many countries will encounter development problems facing before the epidemic,That is the problem of population aging。

Report name,two years later,Global economic growth is expected to slow to 3.3%,This reflects the expected damage to the supply chain and its development potential,also includes developed economies and some emerging market economies,Negative effects caused by the slowdown of labor growth due to aging population。For countries that rely on tourism and commodity exports, as well as countries with limited space in the policy,Many of them enter the epidemic in the case of unstable financial situation,Lack of ability to take corresponding measures to cope with the aging of the population。Experts from the International Monetary Fund Organization believes,In the global epidemic,The loss of low -income people is even more serious。Where,Young people、Women、Education with relatively low education bet365 best casino games and the most impact of the impact of the relatively low education level,Equality of income is significantly intensified。other,Education inequality caused by epidemic may further expand income inequality。

As far as the US economy is concerned,Dian believes,Current,The unemployed population in the United States is mainly concentrated in low -income families,Before the labor market fully recovers,These people will not enjoy the dividends brought by economic recovery。From the macro level,The United States cannot rule out the possibility of "hard landing" in the economy,Long -term interest rates may increase、Asset prices fall、The economy is once again falling into the scene of recession。

Editor in charge: Cui Cen
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