，The "rational man" assumption is the basis for classical economics to analyze human behavior，Including famous bet365 tennis bet。However，Behavioral economics shows，Many human behaviors seem irrational，This puts a question mark on the credibility of bet365 tennis bet。With the advancement of economic research，Is there a middle ground between the two extremes of human behavior, rationality and irrationality，Whether this middle ground might better explain human behavior，Urgent need for answers from academia。Recent，Director of the Application Partnership Team at MIT Sloan School of Management、Erez Yoeli, Research Scientist and Visiting Faculty, Department of Economics, Harvard University、Moshe Hoffman, a researcher in the Applied Collaboration Group at MIT Sloan School of Management, has found a middle ground between the "hyperrationality" of classical economics and the "hyperirrationality" of behavioral economics，Call it the “hidden game”。They summarized the relevant research and practical results into a new book "Hidden Game: The Surprising Power of bet365 tennis bet to Explain Irrational Human Behavior"。Our reporter interviewed two scholars around the theme of the book。

"China Social Sciences Journal": What is the writing background of "The Hidden Game"？What inspired you to use bet365 tennis bet to explain various irrational ideas、Feelings and Behavior？

Hoffman: The story starts from my high school days。I grew up in an Orthodox Jewish community，But left Judaism after reading a book by British evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins。In Dawkins' famous work "The Selfish Gene"，I learned about bet365 tennis bet for the first time，bet365 tennis bet has a strong explanation for some weird animal behaviors，This made me think about whether bet365 tennis bet can also explain human behavior。I even asked the high school counselor，Is it possible to study similar content at university。What a pity，The counselor’s answer is that such a field does not exist yet。Ten years later，I still haven’t given up on using bet365 tennis bet to better understand human “quirks”。I was teaching a bet365 tennis bet course at another university in the United States，Try to apply bet365 tennis bet in new ways，But due to confusion，Poor teaching effect。

Yuli: I studied bet365 tennis bet both as an undergraduate and as a graduate student，But it felt a bit boring at the time，And Hoffman’s new application strongly attracted me，So we further developed Hoffman’s course and “sold” it to MIT。From 2013，We teach this course together。

Hoffman: We compiled some classic bet365 tennis bet models，And designed some new models，As the basis of course content。We also offer this course at Harvard University and Boston College。Every year we try to add new materials，And conduct "tests" with students，To improve the original material。Now，These experiences are summarized in "The Hidden Game"。

　bet365 tennis bet helps achieve optimal strategies

《Chinese Social Sciences Journal》: What is the theoretical origin of bet365 tennis bet？Can you explain bet365 tennis bet and "hidden games" to readers who are not majoring in economics？

Hoffman: bet365 tennis bet is a branch of modern mathematics，It considers the predicted and actual behavior of individuals in a game or session，And study their optimization strategies。The prototype of bet365 tennis bet can be traced back to ancient times，The ancient Greek philosopher Plato described in "Laches" and "Symposium" how frontline soldiers decided to hold on or retreat。The Italian polymath Gerolamo Cardano's "On Games of Chance" published in 1663 proposed some basic ideas of bet365 tennis bet。

19th-20th century，French philosopher and mathematician Antoine Augustin Cournot、German mathematician Ernst Zermelo、French mathematician and politician Emile Borrell (?譩mile Borel）、Hungarian-American mathematician and computer scientist John von Neumann and other scholars about market monopoly、Chess、Mixed Strategy、Research on Minimax Theorem and other aspects，Laid the foundation for modern bet365 tennis bet。1944，The book "bet365 tennis bet and Economic Behavior" co-authored by von Neumann and German-American economist Oskar Morgenstern was published，Marks the official birth of bet365 tennis bet as an independent field。

Yuli: bet365 tennis bet may not be as advanced as everyone thinks，Simply speaking，It involves "three parts" and "two assumptions"。The "three parts" are: participants or players、Different actions chosen by participants、Profit。The first assumption is that the payoff depends on the actions chosen by all participants rather than by any one participant。The second assumption is that participants choose actions in an optimal way。The core value of bet365 tennis bet is to deal with the situation where the motivations of all parties are intertwined。

Traditionally，bet365 tennis bet can be used to study enterprises、Politician、Auction activities, etc.。bet365 tennis bet can help people analyze various problems，For example，Should regulatory agencies allow business mergers，Why small nuclear weapons factories may be more dangerous than large ones，Why auction houses sometimes destroy lots that no one bids on，Why some people like to do handicrafts、Some people like to delve into problems，Why animals declare territory。Although animals are different from humans，It is impossible to discuss strategies with a professional team in a conference room，But biological evolution helps it make optimal decisions。

Another way for humans to optimize strategies is cultural evolution。Culture can be seen as humans teaching、Obtained from imitation and other forms of social communication、Information that has the ability to influence individual behavior。The bet365 tennis bet of evolution studies how living things develop and change over time。Cultural evolution bet365 tennis bet believes，Cultural changes (i.e. beliefs、Knowledge、Custom、Skills、Attitude、Changes in language, etc.) are similar in key ways to biological/genetic evolution。This helps explain why people in certain regions enjoy spicy food or "alkalize" their food，Interesting questions about why certain dietary taboos are thought to prevent pregnant women from absorbing toxic substances。Our view is，Human tastes/tastes and beliefs are mostly not biologically innate，It’s learned。

"The Hidden Game" is mainly from the perspective of biological evolution and cultural evolution，Explains how the optimal strategy is implemented，This is the key to bet365 tennis bet。We use "hidden" to describe the game，It’s because many times people don’t realize that the evolutionary mechanism is at work。For example，If you ask people why they like salty taste、Sweetness、Greasy food，The answer may just be "I think it tastes good、Happy to eat”，But in fact, the evolutionary process shapes people’s taste，Salt、Sugar、Oil has been a scarce commodity in the human living environment for a long time。Another example，Symmetric face、Chiseled chin、Wider hip joints are favored for their “visual beauty”，But from an evolutionary perspective，This is because people seek good health、A fertile spouse。

　　“bet365 tennis bet games” come in many forms

"Chinese Social Sciences Journal": Can you pass some examples，Detailed explanation of the "hidden bet365 tennis bet" theory？

Hoffman: In some parts of the world，It is very common for men to have long nails，Especially the long pink nails。If you ask why，They will say "It looks good"。But in the eyes of bet365 tennis bet in other areas，I’m afraid it’s not attractive for men to have long nails。We will know after a little research，In the past，bet365 tennis bet with long nails usually work indoors、bet365 tennis bet who don’t need to cultivate food，For example secretary、Teacher、Government officials。These tasks will not damage your nails，And respected in the local community。Therefore，One of the reasons for growing long nails is that it indirectly reflects a person’s career and social status。

Some bet365 tennis bet still choose to buy luxury goods when they can buy high-quality and low-priced goods，This is a "high-cost signal"，That is, increasing one’s charm by displaying wealth，Even though it’s expensive。Others take the low-key route，For example，We may not know that our colleagues who have worked with us for a long time graduated from well-known universities、Born from a wealthy family。Counter-intuitive，Humility may also be a costly signal。Because in the long run，Not showing off can make you more popular with others。Not revealing wealth is a signal that you have many advantages: I am willing to hide some information about myself，I am confident that I have enough good qualities to be discovered；Not mentioning my advantages is a way of showing that I don’t need to use them to impress others，Nor pursue superficial interactions with bet365 tennis bet who value these conditions。

The high-cost signal theory originated from the “decumulation principle” proposed by Israeli evolutionary biologist Amotz Zahavi in ​​1975，Later perfected by Alan Grafen, professor of biology at Oxford University, UK。According to this theory，High cost gives the signal honesty and reliability，Because the cost of counterfeiting is too high。Humans and other animals emit costly signals to display personal characteristics that attract others。For example，The long tail of a male peacock is attractive to female peacocks。Because a long tail makes peacocks easier to hunt，It is almost impossible for a peacock with a weak body to grow a long tail，So a long tail means a strong body、Better able to avoid predators，Peacocks with long tails have an advantage in sexual selection。Many bet365 tennis bet models show，After learning and evolving，The above situation will stay in Nash equilibrium: in a non-cooperative game with no less than two players，If each player knows the strategies of other players，And no participant can increase profits by unilaterally changing his strategy，That is to achieve Nash equilibrium。

Another example，Some highly partisan political news only presents one-sided information and remarks，But still has a stable audience。The reason is that its audience is not interested in discovering the truth，Rather signals group membership，Or to convince others that one’s camp is the “good side”。When a person believes a tendentious report，Become a reasoner with specific motives，The idea of ​​persuading others is internalized，Ultimately affects one's own beliefs in a hidden way。Most human behavior is the result of social pressure: or the impact of my behavioral signals on others，Or the impact others have on me through positive reinforcement of these behaviors。Positive reinforcement refers to giving a pleasant stimulus/reward to a certain behavior，The probability of bet365 tennis bet behavior occurring in similar circumstances increases。

Yuli: “Hidden bet365 tennis bet” can reveal the true motivations behind certain altruistic behaviors，For example, environmental protection activities。Most people believe that this is done to protect the environment，But on a subconscious level，Maybe it’s because it’s good for your reputation。I discovered in a field experiment，When the publicity of a selfless act increases，More people will participate。I recommend that staff post the list of people participating in building energy conservation activities in the lobby，Result display，Compared to sending a mobilization letter directly，The number of applicants has increased。

Hoffman: Visible good deeds can enhance one’s public credibility，Establish a positive personal image。For highly social creatures like humans，Personal image is crucial。bet365 tennis bet with a good reputation are more trusted by others，Can form stronger relationships，Reach more cooperation。

Uli: bet365 tennis bet can also explain why it is better to enforce social norms through punishment than to condone inappropriate behavior。Although punishment itself also has costs，But it can prevent inappropriate behavior from being repeated，Thus reducing costs。If no punishment is implemented，Cooperation will fail，Entering a non-cooperative environment。This corresponds to the concept of subgame perfect Nash equilibrium in bet365 tennis bet: each subgame of the original game (part of the original game，can be analyzed as an independent game) all constitute a Nash equilibrium。It is the refinement of Nash equilibrium in dynamic games，Dynamic game refers to the time sequence of the actions of the participants，The last mover understands the choice of the first mover。

　　Use classic theories with bet365 tennis bet ideas

"China Social Sciences Journal": "Hidden bet365 tennis bet" contains a large number of case studies，What specific tools and methods did you use to analyze these cases？

Hoffman: We still use traditional bet365 tennis bet to analyze。This book contains some classic models，Example high cost signal、Eagle and Dove Game、Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma。The hawk-dove game was proposed by British evolutionary biologist John Maynard Smith and American population geneticist George Robert Price in 1973，It describes the strategies that organisms may adopt when competing for resources。The hawk-dove game reveals evolutionarily stable strategies，Regarded as a sign of the official birth of evolutionary bet365 tennis bet (the application of mathematical bet365 tennis bet in biology)。The repeated prisoner's dilemma refers to the same players repeating the classic prisoner's dilemma multiple times，The difference between the two is: in a single game，Participants only care about one-time gains，Personally for each participant，The optimal strategy is defection rather than cooperation；Multiple games，Participants will consider long-term benefits，And have the opportunity to punish the opponent for betrayal in the previous round，Cooperation is therefore possible。"Hidden Game" also introduces some of the latest behavioral research models，But still use standard tools such as Nash equilibrium to analyze。

Yuri: For many things that seem irrational at first glance，If you dig deeper、Ask the right questions，The confusion will be significantly reduced。bet365 tennis bet is nothing but a mathematical tool for analyzing situations like this: the right move for me depends on the right move for you，Vice versa。Every model we use has this feature。The novelty of "The Hidden Game" lies in the interpretation perspective: when people consciously calculate the optimal strategy，The results are often poor and not followed through；Opposite，Biological evolution and social learning shape people’s intuition、Habit、Values、Heuristic。Heuristics refers to when the human brain does not have all relevant information，For quick decision making、Judgment、Mental shortcuts used to solve problems。Social learning theory says，Social behavior is learned by observing and imitating others。Humans have evolved taste、Faith、Ideology、Intuition，To help yourself with your reputation、Signal、Group identity、Game of persuasion or other things。From this perspective，We were able to use the tools of classical economics and bet365 tennis bet to solve behavioral puzzles。

　Beyond the traditional concept of "bet365 tennis bet"

"China Social Sciences Journal": Do professional economists' definition of "rationality" differ from that of ordinary bet365 tennis bet？How to understand the “hyperrationality” of classical economics and the “hyperirrationality” of behavioral economics？

Yuri: Broadly speaking，Rationality refers to the use of logical thinking、The ability to draw conclusions based on knowledge。Professional economists usually define rationality as the pursuit of optimizing personal interests，But what counts as personal benefit is often unclear。What economists call personal interests sometimes only refers to material interests，Sometimes refers to anything that makes bet365 tennis bet happy。bet365 tennis bet’s definition of rationality may depend on context，But most bet365 tennis bet would agree on this: when a person’s behavior lacks consistency，Or what you do does not make you happy、When it is not helpful to you，This will be confusing to others。Economists and ordinary bet365 tennis bet also talk about rationality in another sense: if an idea is inconsistent with basic facts about the world，Then it is irrational。Therefore，Believing in the existence of God or denying climate change would be considered irrational by some。

Classical economics includes classical bet365 tennis bet，Based on the premise that humans are good at optimization: when people face new information，Be able to use Bayes’ theorem to update cognition，Be able to calculate the expected benefits of an action and make choices accordingly，Can solve complex equations，No self-control problem，Also notice all relevant information。In other words，Classical economics assumes that people know what the best course of action is and will do it。Obviously，Many times people don’t act this way，Behavioral economics can explain irrational behavior。

For example，bet365 tennis bet donate to charities out of altruism，But if bet365 tennis bet are good at optimization，Then the best option is to donate to the charity that works best。In fact，bet365 tennis bet don’t check the effectiveness of charities before donating。The key to this problem is，Altruism is motivated, at least in part, by rewards and punishments。However，What behavior should be rewarded、What behavior should be punished，Members of society may not have the same opinions。Donating to charity is commendable，It is not difficult to reach consensus on this point；How well does a charity work?，Different bet365 tennis bet have different judgments。Therefore，bet365 tennis bet tend to praise charitable donations，But there is no way to truly reward “more effective” donations。

　Continue to promote the development of bet365 tennis bet

《Chinese Social Sciences Journal》: In the United States，Is bet365 tennis bet widely used in policy making and institutional decision-making？How effective is it？What suggestions do you have for advancing the research and application of bet365 tennis bet to improve policy making and practice？

Hoffman: Cold War Period，The United States and the Soviet Union adopted a military strategy of "mutually assured destruction"。Between countries with comparable nuclear power，If one party launches a nuclear attack，The other side will counterattack with equal or stronger force，Causing conflict to escalate，In the end, both parties will be destroyed together。bet365 tennis bet is equivalent to a Nash equilibrium，Neither side has incentives to attack。

Another well-known case is the radio spectrum auction。U.S. Federal Communications Commission since 1994，A license to use certain frequency bands will be awarded to the highest bidder through open bidding。Auction is one of the typical practical application scenarios of bet365 tennis bet，Auctioneer、There is a complex game relationship between bidders。American Economist、bet365 tennis bet expert Paul R. Milgrom (Paul R. Milgrom) and Robert B. Wilson (Robert B. Wilson) for improving auction theory、Won the 2020 Nobel Prize in Economics for inventing a new auction format。They made outstanding contributions in the design of the Federal Communications Commission’s radio spectrum auction mechanism，This award is also hailed as another victory for bet365 tennis bet。

As for the application performance of bet365 tennis bet，Potential dispute。In our opinion，The application of bet365 tennis bet in radio spectrum auctions has achieved good results。However，The U.S. Federal Trade Commission’s bet365 tennis bet model predicted，Medical expenses will not increase after hospital merger，But the fact is that medical expenses have increased after the merger。

bet365 tennis bet provides important guidance in promoting altruism to make the world a better place，We explore this topic in detail in a chapter on code enforcement in our new book。Uli has also applied these insights to encourage charitable giving in his research work at MIT、Energy and Water Conservation、Intervention measures such as medication compliance (the degree to which patients correctly take medications as prescribed by the doctor) are being designed。