For a long time，"Reason" assumes that it is the basis for classic economics to analyze human behavior，Including the famous game theory。But，Digital of behavioral economics，Many human behavior does not seem to be rational，This is a question mark for the credibility of game theory。With the advancement of economics research，Whether there is an intermediate zone between the poles of the two human behaviors of rationality and irrationality，Can this middle zone better explain human behavior，urgently needed to give answers。Recent，Director of the Applied Cooperation Team of Slong Management College of Massachusetts Institute of Technology、Research scientist Erez Yoeli and the Department of Economics at Harvard University、Moshe Hoffman, a researcher at the Sloan Management Cooperation Team of MIT, found the middle zone between the classic economics "super rational" and the "super rationality" of behavior economics，Called "hidden game"。They summarize the relevant research and practical results as a new book "Hidden Game: The Amazing Power of Gaming Explanation of irrational human behavior"。This reporter interviewed two scholars around the theme of the book。

"China Social Sciences": What is the writing background of "Hidden Game"? What inspires you to explain all kinds of irrational ideas with gaming theory、Feeling and behavior?

Huffman: The story should start with my high school era。I grew up in the Judaism Corporation，But after reading the book of British evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins, he was separated from Judaism。In Doukins's masterpiece "selfish gene"，I first learned about the game theory，Game theory has a strong explanation for some weird animal behaviors，This makes me think about whether game theory can also explain human behavior。I even ask a high school counselor，Is it possible to learn similar content at university。Unfortunately，The answer of the counselor is that there is no such area。After ten years，I still did not give up using game theory to better understand human "quirk"。At that time, I taught the game theory course in another university in the United States，Try to apply game theory in a new way，But because of the chaos，Poor teaching effect。

Yuli: I learned game theory at the undergraduate and graduate stage，But I felt a little boring at the time，And Huffman's new application strongly attracted me，So we further developed Huffman's course and "sold" it to MIT。From 2013，Let's teach this course together。

Huffman: We compiled some classic game theory models，and designed some new models，As the basis of the content of the course。We also set up this course at Harvard University and Boston College。Every year we try to add new materials，and "test" with students，To improve the original material。Now，These experiences are summarized in "Hidden Game"。

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"China Social Sciences": What is the theoretical origin of game theory? Can I explain game theory and "hidden games" to non -economics readers?

Huffman: Game theory is a branch of modern mathematics，It considers the prediction and actual behavior of individuals in the game or game，Study their optimization strategy。The thinking of the game theory can be traced back to ancient times，Ancient Greek philosopher Plato described in the "Laacus" and "Council" described how the frontline soldiers chose to persist or retreat。The "Game of Game of Opportunities" published by Italian writer Gerolamo Cardano published in 1663 proposed some basic concepts of game theory。

19-20th century，French philosopher and mathematician Antoine Augustin Cournot、German mathematician Ernst Zermelo、French mathematician and politician Emir Borel (? 譩 Mile Borel)、Hungarian American mathematician and computer scientist John Von Neumann and other scholars about market monopoly、Chess、Hybrid strategy、Studies in the aspects of extremely small theorem，laid the foundation for modern game theory。1944，von Nokaman and German American economist Oskar Morgenster's "Game Theory and Economic Behavior" published，It marks the formal birth of game theory as an independent field。

Yuli: Game theory may not be as high as everyone imagined，Simply speaking，It involves "three parts" and "two assumptions"。"Three parts" are: participants or players、Different actions selected by the participants、Income。The first assumption is: the income depends on all the participants rather than the actions selected by a certain participant。The second assumption is: the participants are all selected in the optimal way。The core value of the game theory is to deal with the situation of the motivation of all parties。

Traditionally，Game theory can be used to study enterprises、Politician、Auction activities, etc.。Game theory can help people analyze various problems，For example，Whether the regulatory agency should allow enterprises to merge，Why small nuclear weapons factories may be more dangerous than large，Why do the auction house sometimes destroy the auction of unmanned auctions，Why do some people like to do handmade、Some people like to study the problem，Why the animal declares the territory。Although animals are different from humans，It is impossible to discuss strategies with the professional team in the conference room，But biological evolution helps them make the best decision。

Another way to optimize the strategy of human optimization is cultural evolution。Culture can be regarded as human being teaching、Imitation and other social communication forms、Information that has the ability to influence individual behavior。Evolution Theory is researching how creatures develop and change over time。Cultural evolution theory Consid by，Cultural changes (that is, belief、Knowledge、Customs、Skills、Attitude、Language, etc.) and biological/genetic evolution have similarity Bet365 lotto review in key terms。This helps to explain why people in some regions like spicy food or "alkaline" treatment of food，Why do some diet taboos are considered to avoid interesting problems such as toxic substances such as toxic substances。Our point is，Human taste/taste and belief most of them are not born at the level of biology，but learned。

"Hidden Game" mainly from the perspective of biological evolution and cultural evolution，explained how the optimal strategy is realized，This is the key to game theory。We use "hidden" to describe the game，Because many times people do not realize the evolution mechanism。For example，We use "hidden" to describe the game、Sweet、greasy food，Answer may just "feel good、Happy to taste "，But in fact, the evolution process creates a person's taste，salt、Sugar、Oils have long been scarce products in human living environment。，Symmetric face、Delica jaw、The wider hip joint is favored by "visual beauty"，But from the perspective of evolution，This is because people seek physical health、spouse with strong fertility。

　　"Hidden Game" forms diverse

"China Social Sciences": Can it pass some examples，Explain the theory of "Hidden Game"?

Huffman: In some places in the world，Men's long nails are very common，Especially pink long nails。If you ask why，They will say "so good -looking"。But in other regions, it seems，Men's long nails may not be attractive。We will know a little investigation，In the past，The person who stays with long nails is generally engaged in interior work、People who do not need to farm food，For example, secretary、Teacher、Government officials。These tasks will not damage nails，and respectfully in the local community。So，One of the reasons for retention long nails is that it indirectly reflects a person's occupation and social status。

Some people still choose to buy luxury goods when they can buy products with low price of products，This is a "high -cost signal"，That is to increase your charm by showing wealth，Although the cost is high。Other people take a low -key route，For example，We may not know that my colleagues who have been working together for a long time have graduated from well -known universities、Born in a wealthy family。Anti -intuitive is，Humidity may also be a high -cost signal。Because in the long run,，Not showing off can make yourself more loved by others。The signal that does not reveal the release of wealth is that I have many advantages: I am willing to hide some information about myself，I have enough good quality and I can be discovered; I do not mention my superior conditions to indicate that I do not need to use these conditions to leave a deep impression on others，Do not pursue and value these conditions to interact superficially。

High -cost signal theory originated from the "Cumulative Principles" proposed by Israel's evolutionary biologist Amotz Zahavi in ​​1975，Later, Alan Grafen, a professor of biology at Oxford University in Britain。According to this theory，High cost Bet365 app download gives signal honesty and reliability，Excessive cost of impersonation due to fake。People and other animals will show the personal characteristics of attracting others by sending high -cost signals。For example，The long tail of the male peacock is attractive to female peacocks。Because the long tail will make the peacock more easily killed，Smartly small peacocks are almost impossible to grow long tail，Therefore, long tail means strong body、More capable of avoiding predators，Long -tail peacock is more advantageous in sexual selection。Many game theory model display，After learning and evolution，The above situation will stay in Nash Balance: In the non -co -operating game of not less than two participants，If each participant knows the strategy of other participants，and no participants can increase their gains by unilaterally changing their strategies，that is to reach Nash Balance。

Another example，Some highly -party political news only presents one -sided information and speech，But still has a stable audience。The reason is that what is interested in the audience is not to discover the truth，Instead, the signal of a group member status，or persuading others to identify with their own camp is "a good side"。When a person believes in the tendency report，It becomes a reasoner with a specific motivation，The idea of ​​persuading others is internalized，Finally affect your beliefs。Most human behavior is caused by social pressure: or the impact of my behavior signal on others，Or the impact of others on this behavior on me through positive reinforcement。It is reinforcement refers to giving a certain behavior pleasant stimulation/reward，The probability of this behavior increased in similar environments。

Yuli: "Hidden Game" can reveal the real motivation behind some altruistic behavior，For example, environmental actions。Most people believe that this is to protect the environment，But at the subconscious level，It may also be because it is conducive to your own reputation。I found in a field experiment，When the openness of a certain selfless behavior increases，More people will participate。I suggest that the staff will be posted at the lobby，The results show，Compared to sending a mobilization letter directly，The number of applicants has increased。

Hoffman: A significant and visible good deeds can improve your public reputation，Establish a positive personal image。For highly social creatures like humans，Personal image is important。Honorary people are more trusted by others，It can form a stronger interpersonal relationship，Reach more cooperation。

Yuli: The theory of game can also explain why the implementation of social norms by implementing punishment is better than that in improper behavior。Although the punishment itself is costly，But it can curb improper behavior and repeat，Then reduce costs。If punishment is not implemented，Cooperation will fail，Entering a non -cooperative environment。This corresponding concept of Nash Balanced Nash Bet365 lotto review Balancing in the Corresponding to the theory of Game Theory: Every sub -game of the original game (part of the original game，can be analyzed as an independent game) all constitute Nash Balance。It is the refined refinement of Nash Balance in the dynamic game，Dynamic game refers to the order of the participants' actions，And the post actor understands the choice of the first actor。

　　Use classic theory with new ideas

"China Social Sciences": "Hidden Game" contains a large number of case studies，What tools and methods do you use to analyze these cases?

Huffman: We still use traditional game theory to analyze。This book contains some classic models，For example, a high -cost signal、Eagle pigeon game、Repeated prisoner's dilemma。Eagle pigeon game is John Maynard Smith, a British evolutionary biologist, and George Robert Price, a American group geneticist George Robert Price in 1973，It describes the strategy that may take when biological individual competition resources。The game of Eagle Pigeon reveals the evolutionary stability strategy，It is regarded as the formal birth of the theory of evolution game (the application of mathematics game theory in biology)。Repeated prisoners' dilemma refers to the same participants repeatedly repeated the classic prisoner's dilemma，The difference between the two is: in a single game，Participants only care about disposable income，For each participant personally，The optimal strategy is betrayal rather than cooperation; many games，Participants will consider long -term income，and have the opportunity to punish the other party's betrayal in the previous round，Cooperation may appear。"Hidden Game" also introduced some of the latest behavior research models，But still uses standard tools such as Nash Balancing to analyze。

Yuli: For many things that seem irrational at the beginning，If you dig a deeper step、Ask the right question，The sense of confusion will be significantly reduced。Game theory is just a mathematical tool that analyzes such scenarios: the correct action for me depends on the correct action for you，Vice vice versa。All models we use have this feature。The novelty of "Hidden Game" is to interpret the perspective: when people consciously calculate the optimal strategy，As a result, it is often poor and not persisted; on the contrary，Biological evolution and social learning shape people's intuition、Habit、Value、Enlightenment。Inspiring method means that when the human brain does not master all relevant information，For fast decision、Judgment、Psychological shortcuts used for solving problems。Social learning theory thinks，Social behavior is observed and imitated by others。Human evolution has produced taste、Belief、Ideology、Intuition，Help yourself to involve reputation、Signal、Group identity、persuasion or game of other things。In this perspective，We can use classic economics and gaming theory tools to crack behavior puzzles。

　Beyond the concept of "rationality" in traditional "rational"

"China Social Sciences": Is the definition of bet365 Play online games "rationality" from professional economists different from ordinary people? How to understand the "super rationality" of classic economics and the "super rational rationality" of behavioral economics?

Yuli: Broadly speaking，Rawnate refers to the use of logical thinking、Ability of conclusions based on knowledge。Professional economists usually define rationality as the pursuit of optimization of personal interests，But what is calculated as a personal interest is often unclear。The personal interests mentioned by economists sometimes only refer to material interests，Sometimes it refers to everything that makes people happy。People's definition of rationality may depend on the context，But most people agree: When a person's behavior lacks consistency，Or what you do cannot make yourself happy、When you have no help to yourself，This will make others puzzled。Economists and ordinary people will also talk about rationality in another sense: if a concept does not match the basic facts about the world，So it is non -rational。So，Believe that God's existence or negation climate change will be regarded by some people as irrational。

Classic economics includes classic game theory，On the premise of optimization of human beings: people are facing new information，Can use Bayesian theorem to update cognition，It can calculate the expected income of action and make a corresponding choice，Can solve complex equations，There is no self -control problem，You can also notice all relevant information。That is to say，Classic economics assumes that people know what the best way is and do this。Obviously，Many times people do not do so，and behavioral economics can explain irrational behavior。

For example，People will donate to charitable institutions out of the heart of him，But if people are good at optimizing，So the optimal choice is to donate to a charity with the best work effect。In fact，People will not examine the work effect of charity before donating。The key to this problem is，At least to a certain extent is stimulated by rewards and punishment。But，What behavior should be rewarded、What behavior should be punished，Social members may not have the same opinions。Donation to charity is worthy of praise，It is not difficult to obtain consensus at this point; how effective is the work of a charity，Different people have different judgments。So，People tend to praise the charity donation.，But it cannot really reward "more effective" donation。

　Continue to promote the development of game theory

"China Social Sciences": in the United States，Game theory is widely used in policy formulation and institutional decision -making? How does it work?

Huffman: The Cold War period，The United States and the Soviet Union have adopted the military strategy of "ensuring the destruction of each other。Countries with equivalent nuclear power，If one party initiates a nuclear attack，The other party will counterattack with equivalent or stronger forces，To upgrade the conflict，Eventually, the Bet365 lotto review two parties will be destroyed together。This is equivalent to a Nash Balance，No incentives for attacks on both sides。

Another type of well -known case is radio spectrum auction。The US Federal Communications Commission started in 1994，Gifts of the use of some frequency bands to the most bidder in a public bidding method。Auction is one of the typical practical scenarios of game theory，auctioneer、There is a complex game relationship between the bidder。American economist、Game theory expert Paul R. Milgrom and Robert B. Wilson due to improving theory of auction、Inventory of a new form of auction and won the 2020 Nobel Economics Award。They made outstanding contributions in the design of the radio spectrum auction mechanism of the Federal Communications Commission，This award is also known as another victory of game theory。

As for the application performance of game theory，There may be controversy。In our opinion，The application of game theory in the radio spectrum auction has good effects。but but，The game theory model of the US Federal Trade Commission has been predicted，The medical expenses of the hospital will not rise after the merger of the hospital，But the fact is that the medical expenses have risen after the merger。

Game theory provides an important guidance for the world in promoting altruisticism，We discussed this topic in detail in the new book on the execution of the new book。Yili also applied these insights to the purpose of encouraging charity donations in the research work of MIT、Energy and Water Resources Protection、Intervention measures in the intervention measures of the compliance of medication (the degree of the patient's correct advice) and other intervention measures。