Since this year,Faced with complex and severe challenges at home and abroad,Many main macro indicators in China have resumed to get better,High -quality development steadily advance,shows the strong economic development toughness and potential。Main international institutions have raised China's economic growth expectations,Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released the latest economic outlook report on November 29,It is expected to be 2023,China's economy will increase 5.2%,higher than last expectations。Around China's economic development trend and future trend,This reporter sorted out multiple related reports,and interviewed the Professor of Mexico University of Economics (UNAM) Professor Enrique Dussel Peters。
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Peter said,and 2023 4、May Comparison,The recent improvement of China's economy has improved,The positive trend of economic development may promote China's GDP growth in 2023 to about 5%,or even higher。Specific to the industry,Manufacturing、The vitality of the service industry is significantly enhanced,The proportion of GDP in China has increased。
Peter thinks,China's manufacturing performance is very eye -catching,Especially high -tech manufacturing industries such as computers and communication equipment。China's automobile export bet365 best casino games growth rate is also very eye -catching,China Automobile Industry Association data display,January to October 2023,China ’s cars export a total of 3.9 million vehicles,Fast increase year -on -year。China's new energy vehicle competitiveness will also further expand export increases,In his opinion,These are important factor to understand the positive and good future economy in China。He believes,Next, the Chinese manufacturing industry will be more stable,Even there is even greater growth。
Peter mentioned,The real estate industry is still the most noteworthy part of the Chinese economy。Recent,The People's Bank of China released a column of "Continuous Deepening interest rate marketization reform",It is clearly proposed to continue to increase the degree of marketization of mortgage interest rates,Be better to support rigid and improved housing demand。He said,In terms of real estate sales,Strike speculation speculation、Protecting policies and other policies will continue to have an impact in the next few years。Reduce the interest rate of the stock mortgage、Relaxing the qualifications of house purchase is expected to inject new impetus into China's real estate industry and the Chinese economy。
World Bank Report mentioned,China's economic characteristics are high level of savings、High investment level (measured by capital formation),and the level of consumption expenditure is relatively low。Peter said,Compared with other large economies,China can choose to promote economic growth by cultivating and expanding the domestic consumer market。
bet365 live casino games Peter said,In the new growth point of the Chinese economy,Solar battery、New Energy Vehicle、Chip and other high -tech industries have left a deep impression on people。As the Chinese government emphasizes,Growth not only depends on the quantity,It depends on the quality,Among them, it includes improving the contribution rate of high -tech industries to economic growth。In the field of semiconductor and other fields,The Chinese government encourages independent research and development,Implement import substitution,and establish an artificial intelligence supply chain system。Where,Chinese Enterprise SMIC and Huawei have achieved very positive results,Huawei mobile phone with the latest Kirin 9000S chip launched by Huawei is an excellent example。At the same time,In other parts of the global value chain,Chinese companies are also close to the advanced level of global innovation,Or has become a global leader。Peter said,But you still need to pay attention,Competition between Western companies and Chinese companies still exists,These will be international trade、Foreign direct investment,and academic exchanges and information flow have a profound impact。
Innovative efforts have seen results
China actively responds to many challenges,Promote economic transformation and industrial structure upgrade,China's economic growth has gradually shifted to domestic demand -driven and innovative pull mode。Senior Researcher of the Institute of Brousal Europe and the Global Economic Research Institute Alicia García Herrero and research bet365 live casino games analyst Robin Schindowski (Robin Schindowski) evaluated China in recent research. The level of economic development and innovation。Elero and Schwinzki mentioned,Innovation is the development and application of ideas and technology,These ideas and technologies can improve products、Improve service quality,and improve production efficiency。In a standard growth model,Technical factors determine different inputs (labor force、Capital, etc.) The output level that can be achieved by specific combinations)。Economists have already realized the endogenous characteristics of technological changes,It produces an interested investment decision in the economy in the economy,Including R & D Resources、Policy support、Human Capital, etc.,These inputs are subsequently converted into output,Usually measured by the number and quality of scientific publications and patents。
Studies by Elero and Schwinsky show,In the field of scientific publications,China's efforts to shrink with the gap between Western countries have seen results。The number of references through evaluation,Especially the number of influential references can evaluate the quality of these scientific publications。According to data from the Institute of Science and Technology and Academic Policy (Nistep),The number of Chinese scholars' papers is referenced by 1%。The results of patent are another indicator of innovation,Elero and Schwinsky also paid attention to the results of China's patent declaration。They found,The patent authorization of the State Intellectual bet365 live casino games Property Office of the China State Intellectual Property Office has increased。The number of Chinese patents awarded by the US Patent Trademark (USPTO) also increased。They said,The number of patents in China has reached the level of Germany and South Korea。
The transformation of results provides stamina
Elero and Schwinsky think,China's economy is at a crossroad,Limited growth in high investment drivers、The trend of population aging is obvious under the background,China proposed a new economic growth model,That is, consumer demand and independent innovation are the two pillars to further promote economic development,Only economic growth model with innovation as the core can improve structural deceleration status。Therefore,China is actively promoting technological innovation,Continuously increase investment in R & D and human capital。They said,The Chinese government emphasizes that innovation is not only for development,It is to achieve high -quality economic growth。
The 20 major reports of the Communist Party of China pointed out,"Adhere to the core position of innovation in the overall situation of modern construction in my country"。In the past 20 years,China's R & D expenditure accounts for steadily increased by GDP。2022,China's total investment in R & D exceeded 3 trillion yuan,reached 3078.29 billion yuan,increased by 10.1%over the previous year,Continue the rapid growth momentum,Input intensity level is ranked 13th in the world,between the EU (2.2%) and the average level of OECD countries (2.7%),The gap with OECD countries has further reduced。
Elero and Schwinzki mentioned,Bet365 lotto review China has made significant progress in research and development and innovation capabilities。You can say it for sure,China's scientific research quality and patent quantity have been greatly improved。Whether it is scientific publication or patent results,These are all innovative "intermediate targets",Only when these intermediate targets are transformed into actual results (such as net added value in the industry),Only completed the innovation task,Economy will develop prosperity。From the initial idea to becoming "intermediate target",Obtain actual results,Each step in this process is restricted by various factors,These factors may accelerate or hinder the progress of innovation,Among them, policy、Law、The external environment of the country is located。Elero and Schwinsky think,How about China's future economic prospects,Whether it can relieve structural deceleration,It will depend on whether China's efforts in innovation can provide sufficient "stamina"。
To measure the economic results of innovation can be from productivity、Elementary elements of people's living standards,But this process is not easy。Elero and Schwinzky have tried a standard that easier to measure innovative results,That is the added value of goods and services。Economic Organization data display,From 2005 to 2018,Among most economies with trade with China,China's exports of domestic added value have significantly increased,China ’s exports to ASEAN countries and Japan have increased significantly。Comprehensive these data Bet365 lotto review indicate that China has moved to the upstream of the global value chain,The results of its technology research and development have entered the commercial conversion stage。
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