The 60th Munich Safety Conference (hereinafter referred to as the "Mu'an Association") was held in Munich, Germany, February 16-18。An important window for observing international security and politics，Mian will be known as the "Davos Forum in the field of defense" in the West。The "Munich Safety Report 2024 Munich Safety Report in 2024:" Double Lose "? "Overall presents a pessimistic tone，Reflected the situation of international security、Geopolitics status and concerns about future world economic prospects。

To interpret the relevant signals released by the Mu'an Association and the deep session of the refraction behind it，Our reporter interviewed Josef Mahoney Professor Josef Mahoney at the School of Political and International Relations of East China Normal University and Sun Chenghao, a assistant researcher at the Tsinghua University Strategy and Security Research Center of Tsinghua University who went to Germany to participate in this session。Two scholars made an in -depth analysis of how to avoid the international cooperation "double losses" mentioned above。They agree with，Now the international security situation facing countries around the world is still difficult，The construction of a benign optimization international order is still long -distance，and China plays a pivotal role in international security and peaceful construction。

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"China Social Sciences": As a participant in Mu'an this year，What do you think is compared to previous，What are the highlights of this year's Mu Anhui? What are the key issues in the meeting?，What kind of results have been achieved?

Sun Chenghao:I observed this session at the scene。I think，Compared with previous sessions，The biggest highlight of this session is that China's participation has increased，Some European countries have improved the atmosphere of China。Member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China、Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a keynote speech "China Special"，and the former deputy minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Fu Ying, participated in the two forums of the "Enhancement Defense: Influence: Safety in Indo -Pacific Region".，This is enough to prove that the outside world's attention to China is extremely high。From the content of the meeting，Although some European and American representatives still try to view China from the perspective of ideological confrontation，But the negative public opinion on China has declined compared to the previous session。other，The number of Chinese scholars this year has increased compared to previous years.，Chinese scholars, including me, actively participate in various sub -forums，Make a Chinese voice at the venue，Promote the understanding of the Chinese policy of all parties。

I think，The key issues of this session include the Ukrainian crisis、Pakistani conflict、Southern Global、European and American relations、Europe's own bet365 best casino games prospects。On the issue of crisis in Ukraine，Europe and the United States still try to pass the signal of unity，Aevant each other，support Ukraine，But unfortunately, all parties did not propose a practical solution at the meeting，This also means that the ceasefire and stop war in the short term are still facing a large challenge。On the issue of Palestine's Israeli conflict，Although Europe and the United States are very concerned，But the Mu'an meeting has not arranged too many sub -forums to discuss this issue。I think the organizer of the conference is intentional，to cover up the differences in this issue within Europe and Europe and the United States。Talking about Pakistani conflict，Most people in Europe and America have expressed their support to support the "two countries"，But also expresses the helplessness that does not support this plan for the Israeli government。On the issue of relations between Europe and the United States，Most European and American participants emphasize stability and unity across the Atlantic Ocean，But it is difficult to hide the anxiety that Trump may be elected president again。Especially many European representatives believe that the possibility of Trump's rolling soil will bring a significant impact on European and American relations。

　　"China Social Sciences": from 2020，The report issued by the Organizing Committee generally presents a pessimistic tone，2020、2022、The report of the 2023 report is based on the theme of "Western De lack", "Get rid of helplessness" and "correctionism"，Report this year to focus on "double loses"。How to view this year's theme?

Sun Chenghao:First，The report of the Muanhui has its own characteristics，That is, the organizing committee each year was released two or three days before the meeting，The main purpose is to provide the "target" for discussion for the meeting。In the process of participating in this Mu'an meeting，I deeply feel the discussion enthusiasm brought by the "double loses" as the keywords of each field，Regardless of regional security，Still emerging technical challenges such as artificial intelligence，Many scholars are focusing on this theme。but but，Facing the international political reality of the game of the great power，Scholars of various countries are also exploring the disadvantages of over -emphasis on "relative benefits"，I hope to avoid "double losses" and even "more loses" endings。

Next，This year's report fully reflects Europe's anxiety and confusion about the current international situation and its own prospects。The report precisely depicts the current European mentality，Increasingly tense in the geopolitical situation、When economic uncertainty continues to increase，Europe believes that many countries no longer pay attention to the absolute benefits of global cooperation，Instead, it is more and more worried that your relative return is lower than other countries，This may lead to the "double loses" situation，That is to destroy cooperation，It also destroys the international order that is still desirable。Under this situation，Cross -Atlantic partners and their ambitious countries face extremely difficult Bet365 lotto review situations，Must make a balance and choice。On the one hand，They must prepare for the more intense geopolitical environment，In this environment，Relatively returns thinking is inevitable。On the other hand，It is necessary to try its best to restore the so-called positive (poseTive-Sum) cooperation，Otherwise, it will be difficult to achieve more tolerant global growth and solving urgent global problems。

Last，It should be noted that the title of this year's report adds a question mark on the term "double loses"，Explanation does not think this is an inevitable ending。Mu An will also make me feel the reflection on a series of problems in European countries，What should I do to avoid "double loses"。For example，If the world returns to the era of "big country competition"，How will the European Union that emphasizes standardized power will be self -world in the world? If global cooperation、Multilateralism is impacted by "big country competition"，What kind of plan should the European Union take? If the United States continues to increase strategic competition in China，Should Europe have its own more independent policy to China? How should Europe strengthen contact with the "Global Southern" countries?

　　Maini:"Double Lost" is such a pessimistic expression，Makes people can't help thinking about the intention behind the theme of the meeting and the reality。This theme seems to be a theme of a big opera，Title with German with German、English with subtitle，Hightone represents anxiety，The audience yawn。At the same time，The audience yawn，View phone，and Nietzsche seems to laugh in the grave。

　　"Politicization" causedCultural disorders in Western countries

"China Social Sciences": 2024 Munich Security Index provides in -depth analysis of Western countries such as G7 member states for its future。Survey results show，Most respondents show pessimistic expectations，Especially the American people show strong concerns about domestic development prospects，Where，"Politicization" high residence "worry list"。How do you think about these two?

Sun Chenghao:Western people, this kind of dark expectation of the development prospects of their own country, is expected to be due to the following factors that are related to each other。First, the situation of continuous geopolitical tensions、Unrefined conflicts and non -traditional security threats that have emerged have exacerbated the sense of instability and insecurity of the Western people。Second is the general concern of the economy，Including income inequality、In unstable work, the impact of the global economic trends such as unstable work and automation and climate change，Added the Western people's concerns about the future。Third, the extensive socio -economic consequences caused by the previous epidemic affected the views of the Western people，Make it consider the country and the country、The mutual dependence between people becomes more vulnerable，This also exacerbates its uncertainty and pessimistic emotions for the future。

The factors that lead to political polarization in the United States mainly come from its domestic contradictions。One is political differences。Bet365 app download The increasing ideology among the American party is increasing the phenomenon of polarization。More and more problems are determined by the clear party terms，Makes compromise and establish consensus difficulty。Second is economic inequality。In the United States，Economic gap and inequality have exacerbated political polarization，Dissatisfaction with the status quo and unfairness of the country has encouraged the support of the populist movement，and deepen the differences in socio -economic class。Third is the relationship between race and social tension。This kind of tense relationship，Add police violence、Systematic inequality and cultural conflict have exacerbated American social polarization。Fourth is the polarization of the main political institutions。Systematic inequality and cultural conflict have exacerbated American social polarization，It hinders the effort that has obstacled political differences and found things in common in key issues。

　Maini:Now in the United States，People generally hold a pessimistic mentality，Think that your country is going to decline。And in fact is true。Many indicators about social development indicate，A series of signs of recession in the United States began in the 1970s and 1980s。In the United States at the time，The interests of the middle class began to be eroded，Trade unions representing the working class are gradually being marginalized。Out of the consideration of safeguarding economic interests rather than public interests，Politicians of the two major political parties in the United States are fiscal deficit、Financial "de -control" and tax reduction and exemptions are increasingly intensified，American politics has carried out long -term "tug -of -war" in the field of social issues。Various disadvantages that American society is gradually exposed. In 2001, the "September 11" incident and the 2008 financial crisis became more prominent。For example，More and more Americans are facing the soaring medical care and education costs，The overall service level of these industries is constantly declining; the phenomenon of "hollow" in the infrastructure field is increasingly dependent on the manipulation of the US dollar as a worldwide "privilege currency"，So as to provide funds for its huge overseas military expenditure，To support the increasingly weak post -Cold War hegemony。

The above phenomenon has contributed to a Western country culture that has contributed to internal cultural warfare and governance dysfunction，This culture is led by the private intentions of some special interest groups，and the two parties who are angry with one anger, blame the external threat from other countries on the culprit。Poverty rate in Western countries、suicide rate and murder rate continues to soar。More and more Americans become a chaos、A mixture of anger and indifferent self -frustration。They will kiss the gun they hold before going to bed at night，Ready to shoot from others and shoot them by themselves。

　　Fighting camp confrontation cannot deal with global challenges

"China Social Sciences": 2024 Mu'an report mentioned，Now，The spirit of international cooperation is being eroded，More and more countries focus on protecting their own interests，Even at the cost of destroying the international order, it is at the expense of it。What kind of evaluation of these two?

Sun Chenghao:Now，Under the environment where geopolitics and continues to exist in the continued existence of economic uncertainty，Many countries, especially some Western powers, are re -evaluating their roles and strategies on the global stage，Prefer to consider your own interests，This reflects a worrying mode。Some western powers tend to take more internalization、More self -interesting ways to safeguard your own interests。

But，This method focuses on protecting national interests or even at the cost of undermining the foundation of international order，will bring major risks。The erosion of international cooperation and the disregard of the established norms and institutions will further intensify the tension，Increase the possibility of conflict。other，If countries put their narrow interests above the collective action，May weaken the effectiveness of multilateral institutions and diplomatic mechanisms，Further exacerbate global instability，Destroy the prospects of the peaceful resolution of the dispute。

But，The report of the Mu'an meeting, although I saw the above problems，but failed to propose an effective solution，This seems to find the lesion but can not be prescribed by the prescription。In view of climate change、Global challenges such as terrorism and epidemics，Line with ideology、Fighting camp confrontation cannot cope with these challenges，This requires collective action at the international level。Countries must formulate effective policies to respond to security threats，Enhance economic toughness and promote tolerance; we must also realize，To restore confidence in global stability and prosperity，Enhanced international cooperation and dialogue is important。This needs to reiterate international cooperation、Dialogue and diplomacy value，Also requires all stakeholders to make commitments，Adhere to the principle of multilateralism，Promoting multinational understanding。

　　Maini:Today the United States cannot accept China's rise frankly，It is impossible to face the concept of multilateralism and a more polarized world，and see it as the end of the US hegemony。For the United States, which depends on the use of military and financial hegemony and its national strength is becoming more fragile，China's rise and the rise of any other country，All are an unbearable risk。So，It decides to take double standards for China，For example，claiming that China is may may be engaged in spy activities。But，The United States has been discovered many times to conduct spy activities on its allies。

At the same time，No matter what achievements China achieved，For example, make progress in improving management or national defense facilities，The United States will try to trigger the so -called "fear"。Especially those issues involving Chinese internal security and sovereignty，The United States often uses this to create international public opinion differences。But，What did the United Bet365 lotto review States do in Iraq and Central Asia? How does it assassinate Iran's leaders，How does it implement "vaccine diplomacy"? Actually，Whether it is past or present，can all list countless international illegal acts in the United States。But，These behaviors seem to be just a cloud of smoke for the United States，Just shake your fingers gently，NATO、"Five Eye Alliance" and Europe will immediately respond。

Now，This strategy continues，This can once again hear from US Secretary of State Brillin in the Mu'an Association's remarks。He talked about in his speech: "In the international system，If you don’t sit on the table，You will appear on the menu。"while encouraging the selection stations of various countries，The United States has repeatedly discredited China as the biggest threat in the world。In fact，The biggest threat in the United States is it itself，Many Americans understand this to some extent。Western allies in the United States also understand this，But they are still trapped in finance、In the trap of security and ideology, unable to relieve，More and more allies are dragged into the new recreational era dominated by the United States，This has led to many countries that also face similar political bipolar differentiation and social dysfunction with the United States。It can be said，Western allies in the United States have fallen into a weak and weak dependence relationship。

　　The international security situation is still not optimistic

"China Social Sciences": From the perspective of the two positions，What challenges are still facing the current overall international security situation?

Sun Chenghao:The current situation of international security is complex and changing，Still facing many challenges。The main challenges are three: First, the strategic competition of China set off in the United States has led to the increasingly obvious trend of campization。The United States regards China as the largest strategic competitor，"Winning" China as the key goal for the next ten years，At the same time，The Bayeng government hopes to cooperate with the Western League's accompaniment to increase the pressure on China。This approach forces some countries to choose the side team，It will destroy the global cooperation atmosphere，As a result, the international security situation is more severe。

Second, the phenomenon of economic security and ideology is more prominent。Europe and the United States jointly promote the "de -risk" strategy，Pursuing absolute security in the economic field，Destroy global division of labor and supply chain，Damage to the development rights of other countries，More risks that constitute global economic development。

Third, traditional security and non -traditional security challenges are superimposed。On the one hand，Ukraine crisis、Palestinian -Israeli conflict delay more，impact area and global stability，Weaken mutual trust and cooperation motivation。On the other hand，Grain Safety、Grain Safety、Terrorism、Popular disease、Safety risks in non -traditional fields such as artificial intelligence are still prominent，Need to cooperate with countries around the world、Common response。bet365 best casino games At the same time，Western countries such as the United States should adjust their mentality to China，Stop using the "big country competition" thinking to deal with China，Accept the development reality of China's rise，Otherwise, it will not only be unfavorable to the relationship between the two parties，It also damages the interests of countries around the world。

　　Maini:Now，Many international researchers believe that the international security situation is still not optimistic。We must admit，The global climate crisis continues to deteriorate。The possibility of the outbreak of new epidemic diseases or other black swan incidents，The international community is still not fully prepared。It can be said，Some conflicts will still exist for a long time and will deteriorate for a long time。Differential differences between the global northern and "Southern Global" are leading to increasing political instability。According to the prediction of global economic growth and global inflation,，Some economists think，The global economic recession situation in 2024 will continue。At the same time，An American that is severely divided internally will face the scenes staged by Trump and Biden for the "rematch"，and the ending of this scene will stir the United States and other parts of the world。

In short，We live in an era of global anxiety。In this era，Only a few key countries including China are talking about and promoting practical global solutions。For example，How to build the "Belt and Road" initiative、Global Development initiative、Global Security initiative、Global civilization initiative, etc. to promote global economic growth and green transformation。Unfortunate is，These efforts are doing their best to destroy and demonize by the United States。