Under the condition of information asymmetry，Signal transmission and interpretation are important ways for countries to understand each other’s intentions。Since the 1990s，The punishment and restraint mechanism of domestic audiences has become the focus of rationalist signal research。bet365 promo codes theory is based on cost constraint logic，Pay attention to the post-event “hand-tying” effect。Based on this，The democratic credibility theory emphasizes the institutional constraints of domestic politics，Believe that the constraint effect and confirmation effect of "democratic regime" will enhance the credibility of signals。Although bet365 promo codes theory closely links domestic politics with foreign policy decision-making，But the connotation is ambiguous、Ignoring issues such as psychological motivation and initiative。Differences in sensitivity of audience costs、There are multiple types of source differences and institutional constraints of democratic accountability，Therefore, it is necessary to find the cognitive factors and emotional drivers of bet365 promo codes，Restore the complex diplomatic interaction process。

　　bet365 promo codes under the rationalist path

To explore communication problems under conditions of information asymmetry，1990s，Professor James Fearon of Stanford University in the United States proposed the bet365 promo codes theory。This theory assumes，If a leader openly breaks his promise，will be punished by domestic audiences。For example，Subject to criticism、Falling reputation、Increase the strength of the opposition、Forced to apologize and make concessions and even face impeachment。Especially in countries with fierce internal competition，The domestic audience is a credible signaling device that restrains leaders。The rationalist path believes，Audience costs increase leaders’ default costs，Words and actions that help discipline leaders into keeping their promises。On the signaling issue，Phelan distinguishes between “before” costs and “after” costs，And link credibility to cost constraints。Among the two signaling costs，bet365 promo codes theory mainly focuses on the ex post penalty effect，That is, the cost of "tying hands"，The logic is that subsequent punishment by domestic audiences will force leaders to make credible promises。

The audience of a signal may be diverse，Except domestic viewers，There are also many international audiences，Their conflicting interpretations of signals can also interfere with signal transmission，Therefore, it is necessary to understand the characteristics of bet365 promo codes logic from two aspects。On the one hand，The binding force of the audience is relative。For national leaders，Public attention can be shaped。When it is necessary to expand crisis attention，Leaders can proactively publish messages to stimulate discussions；When it is necessary to reduce crisis attention，Leaders can use information advantages to retain flexibility of choice、Avoid audience penalty。Therefore，Not all defaults trigger audience costs，Not all audience costs will be paid。On the other hand，bet365 promo codes is a complex interaction of multiple layers of politics。Understanding from the perspective of political survival theory，The domestic audience can be divided into two parts: general voters and the "winning alliance"，The punishment constraint logic of these two audience types is also different。The "winning alliance" composed of elite groups directly constrains the foreign decision-making preferences of leaders of "democratic countries"；The leaders of “non-democratic countries” can easily control and bribe elite groups，So decisions are made more freely and recklessly，And audience costs change with election cycles。

　　The theory of bet365 promo codes credibility is difficult to establish

About the relationship between the national political system and the bet365 promo codes mechanism，There are still many controversies in academia。American political scientist Kenneth Schultz’s view on the openness of democratic political competition、Legality、Institutionalization and information-informed characteristics，Summarize the mechanism of constraint effect and confirmation effect，And use case analysis method、Large sample statistics、Multiple methods such as experimental research methods and game theory，Tested the Credible Advantage Theory of Democracy。Based on this，“Democratic regime” is regarded as an important lever to adjust the credibility of international political signals。The so-called "democracy" refers to a system of political checks and balances based on electoral competition，In this system，Opposition parties have incentives to publicly reveal information that the government has avoided，The media is motivated to report unknown information，Voters have the right to supervise the words and deeds of politicians，These restrictive institutional settings objectively help alleviate information asymmetry。Specifically，The democratic credibility model has the following two arguments。

Transparency increases credibility。“bet365 promo codes politics” competition in an open manner can alleviate the problem of information asymmetry，This openness is reflected in four aspects。First，Public opinion supervision。Competition takes place in the public domain，Free media can ensure the free flow of information，Even information that the government wants to cover up and conceal can be disseminated and discussed，This provides foreign observers with a sufficient source of information。Second，Legality。bet365 promo codes competition respects dissent，It is legal to disagree with the government。Candidates need to tolerate differences and abide by the principle of fairness，Voters make choices based on candidates’ public statements and actions。Third，Institutionalization。The decision-making process of a bet365 promo codes system is a binding system based on the constitution and law，Ensure that multiple actors compete periodically under a relatively stable set of rules。Fourth，Informed。The government takes the initiative to disclose information，Opposition parties can obtain policy-related information。

Political competition creates credible mechanisms。Open political competition exhibits two credibility effects: constraint effect and confirmation effect。One，Constraint effect。The presence of opposition parties requires the government to be more cautious when launching public commitments，When public promises lead to bad results, you will face attacks and criticism from the opposition party；It is easy to encounter resistance when the external threat is insufficient，Threatened by resistance and challenge and attacked by the opposition party。Therefore，The government’s best option is to either make no public commitment，Or let the promise be unchallenged。Part 2，Confirmation effect。In addition to public opinion and voter pressure，The active opposition parties in "bet365 promo codes countries" also have obvious conflicts of interest with the government。As a second signal source，The position and attitude of the opposition party will confirm the credibility of the government’s signal。If the opposition parties openly support the government’s threatening signal，This undoubtedly “confirms” that the government’s signal is authentic and credible。

Democratic credibility theory，The incentive and constraint system of domestic political rules affects the credibility of leaders’ external commitments。But is there an inevitable connection between political system and credibility，But there are many questions。Under certain conditions，The bet365 promo codes of "democratic countries" lacks a specific penalty mechanism，Thus making "democratic countries" untrustworthy。And signal interaction requires understanding by both parties，Sometimes even if leaders of “democracies” make promises，Their opponents may also ignore them，Then the theory of democratic credibility is difficult to establish。In addition，For what types of foreign policy actions incur audience costs，Especially whether the public will punish leaders，The existing literature does not give a consistent conclusion。

　　The bet365 promo codes of implementing “post-facto” punishment is too high

The “hand-tying” effect of domestic audience costs，means the actor cuts off his own escape route，It is equivalent to making a promise that cannot be retreated。Thus showing the expensive cost of "tying hands"，Easy to make the other party believe in the authenticity of the promise。However，Accountability itself requires cost investment，Audiences will invest time and energy in punishing leaders only if the benefits of accountability outweigh the costs。Phelan assumes that domestic political opponents or voters punish breaches，But because their behavioral preferences are not unified，Mobilizing and unifying an audience is quite difficult。bet365 promo codes is a constraint imposed after the fact，“After the fact” punishment may be difficult or cost-prohibitive to implement。In addition，Is the public willing to punish leaders who bluff?，Affected by many factors。

First，The bet365 promo codes is not monolithic。Multiple、Mixed and heterogeneous bet365 promo codes group，Their internal cohesion will affect the effect of signal transmission。When the bet365 promo codes is monolithic，Signaling faces a powerful pressure group；When the bet365 promo codes is at a loss，The signal transmitter faces a more complicated situation。The debate among political elites becomes more intense，The more likely it is to attract public attention，The public with sufficient information is more capable of punishing leaders，At this time, the binding force of domestic audiences will become stronger。Opposite，When political elites converge on one another，Focus events will not receive too much attention，Then the leader’s decision-making space will actually increase，In this way, the binding force of domestic audiences will be weaker。

Second，The psychological motivations of the bet365 promo codes are complex and diverse。Political Psychology Research Emphasis，Political ideology affects how individuals interpret diplomatic messages。Take American politics as an example，When leaders face audiences with different political values ​​and ideologies，The effect of "tying hands" is different。Generally speaking，Republican president has greater leeway in negotiating compromises，Because they may win the support of both Democratic and Republican voters when they give in。Opposite，Democratic presidents are more constrained，When they propose a compromise, they gain the most support from voters in their own party，Republicans will give fierce opposition。

　Third，Decision makers have the initiative to avoid audience costs。Existing theories believe，As the crisis develops，Leaders are “locked” into stubborn positions，Can’t get out。Even if there is a mutually beneficial transaction objectively，But due to bet365 promo codes constraints，Neither side can give in，War is inevitable。actually，Decision makers in international crises can do this by remaining vague and flexible，Gain strategic advantage。Leaders can use audience costs to tie their hands and increase their negotiating leverage when necessary，Avoid taking any words or actions that may trigger this cost when it is not necessary。Leaders may try to avoid public commitment，Choose vague threats instead。

bet365 promo codes theory is the focus of the international political signal analysis agenda，The research topics and methods are becoming increasingly diverse。However，The public’s willingness to punish leaders who bluff is affected by many factors，Infer the bet365 promo codes based only on the system type，Easy to deviate from empirical facts。Given that bet365 promo codes is a constraint imposed ex post，Only displayed after the crisis escalates，So this means there is a time difference between "before" and "after"。Research on new behaviorism in international relations shows，There is a difference in actors’ perception of current and future actions，Intertemporal decision-making can have irrational effects on preferences。More detailed case studies are needed in the future，Introduce statistical research and experimental survey methods to evaluate the constraint effect of audience costs，To identify causal connections in the process of complex diplomatic interactions。

　(bet365 promo codes article is part of the National Social Science Fund’s major project “Research on the Approach to Globalization and the Construction of a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind under the Century of Change” (21&ZD172) phased results)

(The author is an associate professor at the School of bet365 promo codes, Renmin University of China)