Under the condition of information asymmetry，Signal transmission and interpretation is an important way for the country to understand each other。Since the 1990s，The punishment and restraint mechanism of domestic audiences becomes the focus of attention to the research of rationalist signals。Volunteer cost theory Based on cost constraint logic，Follow the "tie hands" effect afterwards。Based on this，Democratic confidentiality emphasizes the institutional constraints of domestic politics，It is believed that the restraint effect and confirmation effect of "democracy" will increase the credibility of the signal。Although the audience cost theory closely linked domestic politics and foreign decision -making，But there is a fuzzy connotation、Ignore psychological motivation and energy problems。Sensitivity differences in the cost of audience、Different sources of democratic accountability and institutional constraints have diversified types，Therefore, the cognitive factors and emotion drivers that need to be retrieved by the cost of the audience，Restore complex diplomatic interaction process。

　　bet365 live casino games  

To discuss communication difficulties under the conditional conditions of information，The 1990s，Professor James Fearon, a professor at Stanford University in the United States, put forward the theory of cost of audiences。This theory assumes，Leaders If you publicly violate the promise，The punishment from domestic audiences will be punished。For example，Criticism、Famous decline、Increase the opposition power、Forced to apologize and concessions or even encounter impeachment。Especially in countries with fierce competition in internal affairs，Domestic audiences are trusted signal devices to restrict leaders。Path of rationalism，The cost of audience cost bet365 Play online games increases the default price of leaders，helps to restrain the leaders adopt a word and deeds to keep the promise。On the issue of signal，Ferun distinguishes the cost of "before" and the "post -after -after" cost，and link the credibility and cost constraints。In these two signal costs，The theory of the audience cost theory mainly pays attention to the after -after punishment effect，That is the cost of "tie hands"，The logic lies in the post -after -to -afters of domestic audiences to force the leader to make a credible commitment。

A viewer with a signal may be diverse，Except for domestic audiences，There are also many international audiences，The conflict interpretation of the signal will also interfere with the signal transmission，Therefore, you need to understand the characteristics of audience cost logic from two aspects。On the one hand，The binding power of the audience is relative。For national leaders，Volkswagen's attention can be shaped。When you need to expand the attention of crisis，Leaders can actively publish messages to stimulate discussions; when you need to reduce crisis attention，Leaders can use information advantages to retain selection flexibility、Avoid audience punishment。So，Not all default can trigger the audience cost，Not all audience costs will be paid。On the other hand，The cost of audience cost is the complex interaction of multi -layer politics。Understand from the perspective of political survival theory，Domestic audiences can be divided into two parts: general voters and "victory alliance"，The punishment and restraint logic of these two audience types is also different。The "Victory Alliance" composed of the elite group directly restricts the external decision -making preference of the leader of the "democratic country"; the leader of "non -democratic countries" is easy to control and buy the elite group，Therefore, decision -making is more free and reckless，And the cost of audience changes with the change of the election cycle。

　　Democratic confidence is difficult to establish 

The relationship between bet365 live casino games the national political system and the cost mechanism of the audience，There are still many controversy in the academic world。American political scientist Kenneth Schultz opens from democratic politics.、Legality、Institutionalization and information Knowing characteristics，I summarizes the mechanism of constraint effect and confirmation effect，Use the case analysis method、Large sample statistics、Multiple methods such as experimental research method and game theory，Test the theory of democracy and credibility。Based on this，"Democracy" is considered an important leverage for regulating the credibility of international political signals。The so -called "democratic government" refers to a political checks and balance system based on election competition，In this system，The power of the opposition party has the motivation to openly reveal the information avoided by the government，The media has the power to report unknown information，Voters have the right to supervise politicians' words and deeds，The setting of these constrained systems objectively helps to relieve information asymmetry。Specifically，Democratic confidence -based model has the following two arguments。

Transparency increases credibility。"Democratic politics" to compete in a open manner can alleviate information asymmetry，This openness is reflected in four aspects。First，Public opinion supervision。Competition occurs in the public domain，Free media can ensure the flow of freedom of information，Even the information that the government wants to cover and conceal can spread and discuss，This provides full information for foreign observer。2，Legality。Democratic competition respects objections，It is legal to hold different opinions with the government。Candidates need to tolerate differences and abide by the principle of fairness，Voters choose from the public statement and action of voters。Third，institutionalization。The decision -making procedure of the democratic system is a restrained system based on the constitution bet365 best casino games and law，Ensure that multi -actors start cyclical competition under a relatively stable rule。Fourth，Information Knowledge。The government actively makes information disclosure，The opponent can obtain policy -related information。

Political competition generates trusted mechanism。Public political competition display two credible effects: restriction effect and confirmation effect。One，Constraction effect。The existence of the opposition makes the government more cautious when initiating an open commitment，When the public promises bring bad results, they will face the attack criticism of the opposition party; when the external threat is insufficient，The threat to resistance and challenge will be attacked by the opposition party。So，The best choice of the government is either a public commitment，Either to make the promise cannot be challenged。Its two，Confirmation effect。In addition to the pressure of public opinion and voters，"Democratic State" active opposition parties also have obvious conflicts with the government。As a second signal source，The position attitude of the opposition will confirm the credibility of the government signal。If the opposition party publicly supports the government's threat signal，This undoubtedly "confirmed" that the government's signal is true and credible。

Democratic Breakthrough Consid by，The incentive and restraint system of domestic political rules affects the credibility of the leader's promise。But whether there is a inevitable contact between the political system and the credibility，But there are many questions。Under certain conditions，"Democratic Country" audience cost lacks specific punishment mechanisms，so that "democratic countries" are not credible。and signal interaction requires understanding of both parties，Sometimes the leaders of "democratic countries" make commitments，Its opponents may not care about them，Then it is difficult to establish democracy and confidence。other，What type of foreign bet365 Play online games policy action will cause audience costs，Especially whether the public will punish leaders，The existing literature does not give a consensus conclusion。

　　"Afterwards" punishment is too high 

The "tied hands" effect of the cost of domestic audiences，It means that the actor cuts off his escape route，It is equivalent to making a promise that cannot be retreated。Therefore, show the expensive cost of "tie hands"，It is easy to make the other party believe in the authenticity of the promise。，Accountability itself requires cost investment，Only when the income of accountability is greater than the cost, the audience will invest time and energy to punish leaders。Ferun assumes that domestic political opponents or voters punish breach of contract，But because their behavior preferences are not uniform，Mobilization and unified audience are quite difficult。The cost of audience is a constraint applied afterwards，"Afterwards" punishment may be difficult to implement or excessive implementation costs。other，Whether the public is willing to punish the leader of the virtual momentum，Affected by many factors。

First，The audience is not a piece of iron plate。Diversity、Mixed and heterogeneous audience group，Its internal cohesion will affect the effect of signal transmission。When the audience is a piece of iron plate，The signal transmission is facing a powerful pressure group; when the audience is loosened，Signal transmitters are facing more complex situations。The more intense the debate of the political elite，The more likely it is, the more public attention，Volkswagen who gets enough information is more capable of punishing leaders，At this time, the stronger the binding power of the domestic audience。On the contrary，When the political elites are concluded，Focus event will not be too high，Then the decision -making space of the leader will actually increase，So the binding force of domestic audiences is weaker。

2，The audience's psychological motivation is complex and diverse。Political Psychological Studies bet365 best casino games emphasized，Political ideology will affect how individuals interpret diplomatic information。Take American politics as an example，When the leader faces different political values ​​and ideology audiences，"Tie Tie" effectiveness is different。Generally speaking，Republican President has more room for negotiating compromise plans，Because they may win the joint support of Democratic and Republican voters at the same time when they concession。On the contrary，Democratic President is subject to more restrictions，When they propose a compromise plan, get up to the party's voters at most，Republican Party will give fierce opposition。

third，Decision makers have the ability to avoid the cost of audience。Existing theory thinks，With the development of crisis，The leader is "locked" on the stubborn position，Can't get rid of it。Even if there is a mutually beneficial transaction，But due to the cost of audience cost，Both parties can not give up，War is inevitable。Actually，Decision makers in the international crisis can be blurred and flexible by maintaining words and deeds，To gain strategic advantages。Leaders can use audience costs to restrain their hands and feet when needed to improve negotiation chips，Avoid any words and deeds that may trigger this cost when not needed。Leaders may try to avoid public commitments，Choose a vague threat。

The theory of audience cost theory is the focus agenda of international political signal analysis，Its research issues and methods are also increasingly diverse。，Whether the public is willing to punish the futant leaders is affected by many factors，Only rely on the type of system to infer the cost of audience，Easy to deviate from experience and facts。In view of the audience cost is a constraint applied afterwards，Only after the crisis is upgraded, it can be displayed，Therefore, this means that there is a time difference between "before" and "afterwards"。New behaviorism of international relations shows，There is a difference in perception of the current and future bet365 best casino games actions of the actors，Out -dead decisions will have an irrational effect on preferences。More fine case studies will be needed in the future，At the same time, the introduction of statistical research and experimental survey methods to evaluate the cost of audience costs，Cause and effect in the process of identifying the process of complex diplomatic interaction。

　(This article is a major project of the National Social Science Fund "Study on the Establishment of Globalization of Globalization and Human Destiny in the Hundred Years of Changes" (21&ZD172) Pharmaceutical results)

(Author is an associate professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China)