As an independent social science，The discipline of bet365 joining bonus code aims to explain various phenomena of interaction between states、Result，Especially those phenomena with regularity，Why do wars recur、The formation and role of international organizations、The establishment and disintegration of the alliance, etc.。Generally believed，The core issue of bet365 joining bonus code research is the issue of war and peace，Because war is the ultimate form of conflict，Understanding the root causes of war，It is possible to lead to cooperation and peace。Answer to this question，Traditional historical research、International Law Studies、Philosophical research is all involved，But not until after World War I，bet365 joining bonus code has just begun to become a specialized field and specialized discipline。This is because of the huge casualties and destruction caused by the world war，Making countries hope for a system、Scientific understanding of the root causes of conflicts and even wars between countries，Thus proposing feasible、Scientific theoretical knowledge and solutions。The establishment and development of bet365 joining bonus code theory is based on this reality。

　　The development direction and paradigm of bet365 joining bonus code

The research object of bet365 joining bonus code actually involves two levels: international results and foreign policy，This leads to two directions in its theorization，That is, bet365 joining bonus code theory and foreign policy theory。bet365 joining bonus code theory is universal knowledge in the field of bet365 joining bonus code。Since sovereign states are the main actors in the international system，And largely monopolizes the use of violence，Therefore, the essence of bet365 joining bonus code theory is international political theory，That is, analyzing the political games and political cooperation between countries，And start from this to understand various international politics、Economic and social phenomena。From the perspective of conflict and cooperation，When conflicts between countries reach the extreme, war may occur，When cooperation reaches the extreme, integration and complete unification may occur。The object of explanation by bet365 joining bonus code theory is the interaction between countries and its results，The process and results of these interactions do not depend on the strength and policies of a certain country。This means，bet365 joining bonus code is not equal to foreign policy，bet365 joining bonus code theory is not equal to foreign policy theory。The development and changes of bet365 joining bonus code，It depends more on some structural factors，For example, the comparison of power between different countries、The regulatory role of international systems and international organizations、Conflict and consistency of interests and policies of various countries, etc.。

Foreign policy theory generally points to why a certain foreign policy appears。Developments and changes in foreign policy，Not only affected by various structural factors of the international system，It is also affected by the domestic situation of each country and the power game in the decision-making process。Because it involves two levels，It becomes very difficult to develop a universally applicable explanatory foreign policy theory。Therefore，bet365 joining bonus code theories are mostly structural theories at the system level，Foreign policy analysis tends to combine the two levels of international system and domestic politics。Of course, there are also some foreign policy theories at the purely international system level or purely domestic level。bet365 joining bonus code theory and foreign policy theory both belong to the theoretical knowledge construction of the bet365 joining bonus code discipline，Only the objects of interpretation are different。

The Western bet365 joining bonus code academic community has formed a realism-based approach、Three major paradigms: liberalism and constructivism，These paradigms cover both bet365 joining bonus code theory and foreign policy theory。Chinese bet365 joining bonus code scholars have done a lot of meaningful theoretical construction work，formed some representative theoretical results。If you want to answer the question where is the growth point of theoretical knowledge in the discipline of bet365 joining bonus code，A common misunderstanding must be clarified first，That is, explanatory and normative theories are diametrically opposed to each other，Then discuss the achievements and shortcomings of existing theoretical construction。

　　The construction of social science bet365 joining bonus code: explanatory and normative

According to the general social science methodology，The theoretical construction of the discipline of bet365 joining bonus code needs to meet certain standards，For example, discovering a regular problem that requires causal explanation，The concepts used should be observable、measured，So that causal relationships between variables can be established，And a theory should include the causal mechanism between independent variables and dependent variables。bet365 joining bonus code scholars represented by Kenneth Waltz believe that，bet365 joining bonus code theory is the explanation of regular phenomena in the field of bet365 joining bonus code，But for the same phenomenon，There can be different theoretical explanations。If a certain theory has strong explanatory power for most phenomena，Then it is a good theory。But，bet365 joining bonus code scholars generally admit that，There is no single theory that can “conquer the world”。In many cases，Scholars need to combine different theories to explain，Some theories can contribute the main factors in the explanatory framework，While other theories contribute secondary factors in the explanatory framework。But anyway，Theory is used to explain problems，The strength of the explanatory power determines the quality of the theory，This has become the basic standard for evaluating various bet365 joining bonus code theories。

In fact，There is no “pure” explanatory theory。Both realism and liberalism are theories based on the premise that the state has basic rationality，Social constructionism often emphasizes understanding rather than explanation。Overemphasis on interpretive standards，It will bring some negative effects to the theoretical development of the discipline of bet365 joining bonus code。On the one hand，Due to the emphasis on the explanatory nature of bet365 joining bonus code theory，The development of normative theory has not received enough attention。Most of the existing normative theories come from political philosophy、Inferred from the perspective of ethics，Has strong idealism，Therefore it is not taken seriously。Actually，Normative theory should be the next stage of explanatory theoretical research，After an in-depth explanation of existing bet365 joining bonus code issues，Targeted and feasible solutions should be proposed，Thus making the world a better place。For example，For liberals，They should pay more attention to the design of international institutions，Research on what kind of system design is adopted，Can mobilize the enthusiasm of different actors in different fields，Participate in global governance together，We cannot be satisfied with just explaining the general functions that international institutions can play。For realists，Of course they emphasize the restrictive role of power structure in interactions between countries，But this does not mean that realism cannot propose any constructive solutions for the progress of international politics。Realists on offensive weapons、Research on defensive weapons and offensive and defensive balance，It is possible to contribute in this regard by committing countries to defensive rather than offensive weapons，can alleviate the security dilemma，Improve the security level of your own country without compromising the security of other countries。Although the power structure between countries cannot be artificially designed，But realism emphasizes the cost of war、Advocating prudent diplomacy，No doubt it will help reduce the occurrence of war。

On the other hand，It is actually very difficult to construct a foreign policy theory with universal explanatory power，It’s also unnecessary。The formulation of foreign policy is essentially a domestic political process，Therefore，The emergence of a certain foreign policy，It is not necessarily caused by the pressure of the bet365 joining bonus code system，In most cases, it is deeply affected by domestic politics and personal factors of leaders。If you want to develop a foreign policy theory with universal explanatory power，It is necessary to integrate the factors of the bet365 joining bonus code system and domestic politics，Become a new core concept；Even if two of the factors can be integrated，Because there are too many factors involved，The explanatory power of this new concept is still very limited。Neoclassical realist foreign policy theory has made a good attempt in this regard，But there is still no core concept that is widely accepted by everyone。For the theoretical construction of foreign policy，In fact, what is more meaningful is a theory that pays equal attention to explanatory and normative properties，That is, what kind of foreign policy should a country adopt under different environmental conditions、How to determine your allies and opponents，To achieve the desired goal。Irrational foreign policy may be affected by various complex factors，It is difficult to theorize them uniformly。Focusing on how rational foreign policy emerges，It can provide guidance for the foreign policies of various countries。The normative foreign policy theory referred to here is not based on universal moral principles，But based on the assumption of a rational state、Based on the objective reality of the bet365 joining bonus code system。

　Existing bet365 joining bonus code theories and possible growth points

From an ontological point of view，Realism、Liberalism and constructivism represent the three ontological dimensions of the construction of bet365 joining bonus code theory。Realism emphasizes the role of material factors，The theory takes strength structure as the core concept，Emphasis on the restrictive role of power distribution between different countries in the interaction between countries，Therefore it is a heavy materialism。Of course，Realism does not deny that conceptual factors may also play an important role，But it emphasizes that material factors are more important than conceptual factors。As Robert Gilpin, the master of realism, said: “Just look at the importance of religion in international affairs，We will be able to understand the meaning of concepts。”Liberalism is a “moderate” materialism，Emphasizes the restrictive role of international institutions and domestic institutions on interactions between countries。Traditional liberals believe，Democracies will not fight among themselves，Because leaders are restricted by the democratic system；Neoliberals think，International institutions can independently provide some international public goods、Promote cooperation。If matter is objective reality，Then the system emphasized by liberalism is also an objective reality，It’s just that the “hardness” is inferior to realism。Constructivism is a mild form of materialism，Believe that conceptual factors are more important than material factors，Because in most cases，Ideas give a certain meaning to existing material structures，Thereby shaping the interactions between countries and their outcomes。In constructivist bet365 joining bonus code theory，National Identity、International norms are objective and real things，You can go and observe、Cognition and understanding，So it is not complete idealism。

Realism、Liberalism and constructivism have exhausted the three dimensions of empirical research on bet365 joining bonus code: strength、Systems and concepts。Although some geopolitical scholars may think，Geographical factors are more important than strength factors，Or at least equally important，But they also belong to the ontology of materialism。For example，Although the relationship theory of bet365 joining bonus code expert Qin Yaqing proposes a new element-"relationality"，But this concept still essentially belongs to the theoretical paradigm of constructivism。From this perspective，bet365 joining bonus code theory wants to achieve a “paradigm revolution”，Very difficult in the short term，Unless there is a qualitative change in the international system，If multinational corporations replace sovereign states and become actors in the international system。Marxist bet365 joining bonus code Theory and Dependency Theory、World system theory also involves the operation of the international system，But they should be included in the study of world politics，Because they are mostly macroscopic、Discussion on how the world economic structure affects the operation of international politics，Emphasis on the deep background of the operation of international politics，Rather than an bet365 joining bonus code theory that directly explains conflict and cooperation between states。Critical theory and postmodernism emphasize the deconstruction of discourse and theory、Emphasis on the non-objectivity of knowledge，They hardly provide definitive knowledge for the discipline of bet365 joining bonus code。

On the basis of existing bet365 joining bonus code theory，There are the following two possible knowledge growth points in China’s bet365 joining bonus code discipline。On the one hand，China’s bet365 joining bonus code discipline can further focus on the study of middle-level theories。Middle-level theories of bet365 joining bonus code generally focus on a certain issue area of ​​bet365 joining bonus code，Like a deterrent、Alliance、International Organization、Development assistance, etc.。For these specific issue areas，A more specific middle-level bet365 joining bonus code theory can be developed，For example, why some international organizations are disintegrating、Why some regional cooperation have a high level of institutionalization but a low level of actual integration。In fact，Chinese bet365 joining bonus code researchers have made a lot of developments in middle-range theory，Especially reflected in the many excellent doctoral theses every year。By applying macro-level explanatory bet365 joining bonus code theory to specific issue areas，Instead of staying at the paradigm level of discussion and criticism，Contributes to the advancement of knowledge and effective academic exchanges between China and the West。

On the other hand，Based on many existing explanatory bet365 joining bonus code theories，Chinese bet365 joining bonus code researchers can further conduct normative research。These studies should provide more concrete solutions for promoting international cooperation。Of course，Existing interpretive research itself actually has normative goals，eg realism、While liberalism and constructivism explain the sources of instability in the international system, they also have some normative inferences - such as the "bipolar stability theory" of structural realism、Liberalism emphasizes the establishment of a more effective international system，But，Normative bet365 joining bonus code theory still has a lot of room for development，And it can be more targeted。How should the EU’s integration institutional system be further improved？How to achieve peaceful coexistence among different civilizations？There is a contradiction between the pursuit of profits by multinational pharmaceutical companies and the improvement of medical standards in many developing countries，World Health Organization、How should sovereign states and multinational corporations coordinate？In these normative studies，The most important thing is to design a suitable solution to the problem、Specific plans that can mobilize different actors to take positive actions，Existing macro strategic considerations，There are also micro system and policy designs。

　Existing bet365 joining bonus code theories and possible growth points

　　relative to bet365 joining bonus code theory，Foreign policy theory is less developed，But not entirely without progress。The difficulty in foreign policy theory is the conceptualization of national interests。Realism、There is no big difference between liberalism and constructivism on the content of national interests，But the problem is，National Security、Economic Development、International influence and other specific national interests，How did the ordering lead to the final foreign policy in reality，This is inherently difficult to theorize。Generally speaking，Need to examine both the international system and domestic politics at the same time，Put it all together，It is possible to fully explain the emergence of certain specific foreign policies。In the vast majority of cases，The pressure of the international system does not directly determine foreign policy。Facing the same pressure from the international system，Different countries may make completely different choices。

In the existing Western foreign policy theory，Offensive realism is more worth mentioning、Three schools of defensive realism and neoclassical realism。Offensive realism and defensive realism are essentially both explanatory and normative theories，The former believes that in anarchy，If a big country wants to gain security, it must continuously increase its strength、Become a regional hegemon，The latter believes that the current bet365 joining bonus code system has undergone many profound changes，The emergence of nuclear weapons、Economic interdependence、Nationalist sentiments make it more difficult for big countries to expand abroad，Defensive measures rather than offensive measures are more conducive to maintaining the country's national security。Both normative theories see some aspects of the reality of the bet365 joining bonus code system，But also because it focuses too much on certain aspects，So its normative claims can easily cause controversy。A purely offensive or defensive foreign policy is not necessarily rational，Instead, we need to examine the positions of different countries in the bet365 joining bonus code system and the constraints they face。Similarly，The "moral realism" proposed by Professor Yan Xuetong is also a normative foreign policy theory，Believe that realism should not exclude morality，Adhering to moral principles will help rising countries gain more bet365 joining bonus code support、Successfully replaced the original hegemonic country。

Neoclassical realism is a foreign policy theory that focuses on interpretation，That is, it is believed that the country may expand abroad under different conditions，It is also possible to adopt a defensive posture，This fundamentally depends on the national strength that each government can use，It may also depend on how leaders view the distribution of power in the bet365 joining bonus code system。No matter the power the government can use，It is still the distribution of strength in the eyes of leaders，All help us understand why countries adopt different rankings of national interests under different conditions。But，It also has obvious limitations，Because this new concept composed of two factors is still just an oversimplification of the many factors that influence foreign policy making。For example，Fareed Zakaria believes that the United States waited until the end of the 19th century to begin colonial expansion，It’s because the previous government was too weak、Not enough strength，But this does not explain the United States’ acquisition of the Philippines、Why did the foreign colonial process stall after Guam。Because the formulation of foreign policy is affected by too many factors，It is difficult for a theory with a relatively single core concept to have universal explanatory power。

Facing this problem，Different bet365 joining bonus code scholars still try to propose different core concepts，Create a diversified foreign policy theory，We can rely on and integrate these different theories when conducting empirical analysis。Although the explanatory power of each theory may be limited，But different theories can complement each other。There is no need for scholars to insist on proving that their theories can explain all events。In the process of constructing theory，If you want to make your theory more targeted，First of all, countries should be classified according to certain standards，Then develop corresponding explanatory foreign policy theories for different types of countries。One of the difficulties faced here is，Whether it is necessary to define relevant types of national interests，And establish a causal relationship between national interests and foreign policy。If there is a clear definition of national interest，Then it cannot be a theory that can explain both rational foreign policy and irrational foreign policy，Because irrational foreign policy must deviate from the country’s national interests。It is possible to establish a universally applicable framework for foreign policy analysis，But it is very difficult to establish a universally applicable foreign policy theory。

The question that purely explanatory foreign policy bet365 joining bonus code needs to answer is: how do various foreign policies come into being？The question to be answered by a foreign policy bet365 joining bonus code that pays equal attention to both explanatory and normative aspects is: for different types of countries，What should a rational foreign policy look like？Take Qin Yaqing’s hegemonic support bet365 joining bonus code as an example，This bet365 joining bonus code only targets hegemonic countries，Defining the interests of a hegemonic country as hegemonic power status，The power gap between the hegemonic country and the hegemonic country becomes the basic basis for judging the strategic interest relationship between the hegemonic country and other countries。This bet365 joining bonus code is the unity of explanatory and normative，It can explain the rational foreign policies of hegemonic countries，It can also be used as a guiding principle for the foreign policy of a hegemonic country，But this bet365 joining bonus code cannot explain those foreign policies that are considered "irrational" by this bet365 joining bonus code，That is, the gap in strength between a certain country and the hegemon is very small，But the hegemonic country did not take measures to contain and suppress it。Path based on rationalism，On the basis of reasonably defining national interests，Establish a bet365 joining bonus code that pays equal attention to explanatory and normative aspects，Relative to the pursuit of establishing a bet365 joining bonus code with universal explanatory power，More reasonable and advantageous: first，Compared to understanding irrational foreign policy，What we need to pay more attention to is how to reasonably define national interests；Second，Because there are too many sources of irrational policies，It may not be possible to theorize of general significance；Third，Foreign policy bet365 joining bonus code based on the rationalist approach can keep the bet365 joining bonus code from being overly complicated，Keep it simple。

(The author is a professor at the School of bet365 joining bonus code, Renmin University of China)