Announcement of the Seventh Census Data，Satisfy the long -awaited waiting for the academic community and the public。But some data meet public expectations，Some data are highly expected and caused a common discussion。How to understand the census data? How to analyze and judge the future trend of the Chinese population from these census data?。

　bet365 best casino games The reduction rate of fertility and population reaches the peak

Generally speaking，Census cost is high，and the cost of sampling survey is relatively low。So，countries around the world are tracked the trend of population changes，A sampling survey is carried out every year or every few years，Population census every 10 years。my country conducts a 1 ‰ population sample survey once a year，1%population sample survey every 5 years，Population census every 10 years。Data obtained by the public every year，It is the 1 ‰ population sample survey data released by the State Bureau of Statistics，This will give basic changes in the annual statistical bulletin，and the changes in the previous years of changing trend estimation and adjustment sample survey of the population data of the year。In the past 10 years，Because the number of newborns announced each year tends to decrease in fluctuations，Therefore, the government reforms the original family planning policy in a timely manner，In 2013, through a separate two -child policy，Passing the general two -child policy in 2015。But the results of the 1 ‰ population sample survey in recent years show that the institutional dividend of each reform will only release about 1-2 years。Data display，The number of new births every year continues to decline: 17.86 million people born in 2016; 17.23 million people born in 2017; 15.23 million births in 2018; 14.65 million births in 2019; 2020 -according to the seventh -seventh Data Data，Only 12 million people were born。

But the total number of people's census has reduced the value of the total number of census in the sixth census，Compared with the "harmony" of the newborn population in the past 10 years, a lot of more "harmonious" is more。The total population of 2019 published in accordance with the statistical bulletin was 1.400 billion。In the case of nearly 10 million deaths in recent years，The census found that the total population in 2020 was 1.411 billion -this means that more than 11 million people in 2020 than 2019。

The public has gradually formed a thinking set in the trend displayed by the public's 1 ‰ population sample survey data。The academic community is based on the 1 ‰ population sample survey data in the last 10 years -especially based on the annual birth rate and mortality rate.，The inevitable conclusion from this is: the population growth rate is declining rapidly。The data obtained by the seventh census supports the birth rate of the birth rate to decrease，But the total population is higher than public expectations。Because of the total population of 1.411 billion，Data published by the National Bureau of Statistics before the 2019 epidemic，It is also inconsistent with the data calculated by the number of newborn registrations announced by the public security department in 2020，It is also inconsistent with many predicted data。Bet365 app download The heated discussions caused by these inconsistent expectations are understandable。

Accelerate in population flow、The total population of the flowing population has risen for a long time、The phenomenon of separation of households is normal，The quality of the 1 ‰ population sample survey data per year must be lower than the quality of the population census data。Generally speaking，Within the error rate announced by the State Bureau of Statistics，The usual method is to re -revise the sampling survey data with the census data。It should be said，In all data，Population data is the most accurate data。In all population data，Census data is the most accurate data。The quality of census data obtained based on the settlement society is definitely higher than the census data quality based on relocating society。Because of this，As long as the population flow accelerates，As long as the separation rate of people is increasing，The quality of the census data of the house or the census of the house will also be questioned。Despite this，The quality obtained from the census is still much higher than the data quality obtained from sample surveys。

This means，The total number of Chinese population and regional distribution data obtained from the census data，Is a data that should be accepted。Although the data has more than 11 million more than the 1 ‰ sample survey，But the decline in birth rate、The aging acceleration situation is clear。In the Popular Pyramid，If the proportion of the elderly population tends to rise，The mortality rate will also rise。If the population of the age of marriage tends to decrease -the population of adult women with a strong period of fertility will decrease，The number of marriage pairs every year will also decrease，As a result, the number of marriage and living people in the year will also decrease。For example，The number of residents registered in the Mainland in 2013 was 13.41 million pairs，and the number of registered marriages in mainland residents in 2019 dropped to 9.22 million pairs。

In this case，The process of the number of birth population and the number of deaths is approaching the number of deaths，is the process of peak population。The population born in 2020 is only 12 million，But the number of deaths has exceeded 10 million，This shows that China's total population is tending to reach the peak。After the population reaches its peak,，If the annual death population is greater than the birth population of each year，The total population will decrease。If the number of births per year is close to the number of deaths,，will be in a state of continuous hovering，But the big trend is that Dafeng will decline after Dafeng。This means，At the end of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" or the early stage of "Fifteenth Five -Year Plan"，China is likely to usher in the peak population。Based on the total estimation of 1.411 billion yuan，The peak value is likely to be within 1.42 billion。

　　Three turning points of the population: industrial upgrade and work of work

Compared with the Sixth Population Census，The laborer population shows the seventh population census data，that is, the population between 16-59 is 890 million，The proportion is 63.35%，6.79%than "Liu Pu"。How to understand this data?

Population data，Especially the age structure data of the population，Is a children's population、The percentage structure Bet365 app download formed compared with the queue of the labor age and the elderly population。A decrease in the proportion of population in the labor age，On the one hand, the impact of the number of population 60 and above due to the extension of the life expectancy of the elderly population，On the other hand, it is also affected by the increase in the proportion of children's population。So，Someone explained that the increase in the increase in the increase in the growth of the birth policy reform and the increase in the proportion of the labor age population，This is incomplete。In the case of the existing age of the labor age but the mortality of the population in this age,，A inevitable result brought by population aging，is the decline in the proportion of the working age population。When discussing the change of population structure，Cai Yan proposed two turning point theory。I add a turning point here，Form three turning point hypothesia。

First，Dafeng and turning of the total number of labor age population，is the first turning point for the change of population structure。Before that，Population dividend is mainly reflected in the continuous increase of the total number of labor age population and the proportion of the total population of labor，The sum of the proportion of aging population and the proportion of children's population continues to decline: the greater the proportion of the labor age population，The higher the income，The cost of the family sector used to accumulate and improve consumption will rise，Economic growth momentum is enough。my country's labor age population，From 2013，It is decreasing at a rate decrease of 2 million to 4 million per year。This directly triggers the problem of "migrant workers" and "difficult recruitment"。Coupled with the continuous expansion of reproduction，Gradually exhausted the rural labor storage pool。Slows on the growth rate of wages of labor -intensive enterprises、Slow improvement of labor conditions, etc., improved the ability of workers to bargain，enable workers to choose employment areas and enterprises in the way of "vote in foot"，The demand of employment positions forced enterprises to improve the production flow line，Improve labor efficiency，Increase the density of technology and capital。

2，Dafeng and turning of the total population of labor participation，is the second turning point for the changes in the population structure。In population transformation，The decline in the proportion of the working age population，It will inevitably cause changes in the proportion structure of labor participation，Forced the labor participation population to decline after Dafeng -both declined，It is also a decline in proportion。Generally speaking，The decline in the proportion of labor participation population is often earlier than the decline in the total number of labor participation population，That is, regardless of whether the population is 16-64 years old is calculated (the number of jobs+the number of jobs is currently looking for)/(16-64 -year -old population) × 100%)，still uses the population 16-59 as a denominator (the number of people+the number of employees is currently looking for)/(16-59 years old) × 100%)，The proportion of labor participation population will decline in the labor market's demand for skilled talents。For example，This ratio has dropped from about 71%of "Six Pu" to about 67%of "Qi Pu"。

In recent years，The number of labor participation Bet365 app download population has also entered a decreasing channel。This means，During the population change process，We will first usher in a decrease in the number of labor age population，After a process of disappearing and long，It will be transferred to the decreasing process of labor participation population。A decrease in the people participating in the population，On the one hand, it depends on the net decrease in the number of people's age population，On the other hand, it also depends on the structural change of the labor market。Increase with labor productivity、Improvement of production automation，and the rapid strengthening of the technical density of the production process，The speed of the machine substitution is accelerated。This increases the employment pressure of low -manpower capital workers，Human capital requirements for increasing labor from the demand side，Objectively extend the time of labor receiving education、delayed the employment age of workers in the production process，Fine professionalism of labor position。During the rapid technical upgrade process，After the laborer participated in the labor for a period of time，Do not have to re -study or receive skills training。All this will reduce the labor participation rate of the actual labor process，In the process of extension of the educational period of the labor population and the extension of the training time，If the legal retirement age does not change，The labor participation rate of the working age population will inevitably decrease，The probability of withdrawing from the labor market that is older and simple -working and simple labor will increase。

third，Dafeng and turning of the total population number，is the third turning point of the changes in the population structure。The decrease in the decrease in the labor population and the decline in the proportion affects the turning and decline of the proportion of labor participation and total amount，and the first two gather together，It also promoted the peak and turning of the total population as soon as possible，That is, the total population will be in a drop channel。For example, the total population of Japan、The total population of Germany enters the decline channel after Dafeng。In a non -immigrant country，This trend is almost inevitable。According to my country's current population situation，From 2025-2027, it will change from Dafeng to the decline channel。The lower the labor participation rate，It is required to advance the negative impact of technological progress to make up for the decline in labor participation rate。If the development speed of science and technology can not keep up with the aging speed of the population，Production formed under a certain labor population and the structure of the support population、accumulation、Consumption and other relationships，will be the first to produce a change formed by the change of population structure，Forced the entire society to form a new distribution structure under the new population structure。

In short，Under the influence of the transformation of society，The greater the fluctuation of the labor market，The lower the labor participation rate，After leaving the job, the difficulty of finding the next job will be more difficult。Of course，If technological innovation stops or improves slowly，The use of low -manpower capital positions for high -manpower capital workers will occur，Waste bet365 live casino games phenomenon for forming human resources，Reduce higher education yields。In the channel where the labor population tends to decline，If the upgrade of the production process is slow，The probability of finding a job based on the influence of the supply and demand relationship will be greater，High -man -human capital people will take longer to find the next job。Overall，Accompanied by modernization，The requirements of high -man -human capital workers will increase the quality of work，This will generally increase the labor rate in the labor market。The original industrialization was a laborer with low human capital，But if the labor force of high human capital is delayed to sign the contract, or you cannot make a determination to sign a contract，Or simply voluntarily prevail，The whole society will open the prelude to the industrialization。For example, the person in 2020 has reached more than 200 million。In the population of only about 770 million in the population，Linking workers' population reaches 200 million，This should be the transition speed of the structure of the labor position cannot keep up with the friction phenomenon of the change of the labor market。

The less the labor participation population，The higher the population support ratio。In this case，You cannot just rely on pensions to solve the problem of pension，You cannot rely on the financial support of young and educated to solve all problems。Under the background of the growth rate of fiscal revenue, the growth rate of fiscal revenue，Only use training to enhance human capital，Or improve the labor environment with technology -intensive and capital -intensive labor、Increase the income level of the labor population，Only by fully solving the problem of rapid decline in labor participation rate。Of course，Delay the retirement age in the construction of the system，It can also consolidate the labor participation rate to a certain extent。But can the market accept the elderly workers，It also needs to launch a certain social protection policy，Promote the change of seduction system。

During the reduction of labor participation rates，Difficulties in recruitment will exist for a long time。In the pursuit of a better life，The requirements for people's high -quality employment positions are becoming more and more clear，The speed of improvement of production technology is difficult to meet the employment requirements of the business population，The changes in the demand -side structure of the employment position requires companies to strengthen innovation，Improve labor conditions during the improvement of labor productivity、Short labor time，Promote the optimization of the labor market from the supply side reform。China's next 15 and 30 years of development，All will show this strong change trend。That is to say，The process of industrial upgrading and the change of labor structure will be developed simultaneously。

　Household -scale miniaturization and individual society:Family fragility and social protection

Seventh population census discovery，The family of the family in China has been reduced to 2.62 people，3.1 people from "Liu Pu" decreased by 0.48 people。Reduce the size of the household，To a certain extent reflects the reduction of the family。But the size of the household reflects the residence of the population during the census，And the aging and declining childization support this change in bet365 best casino games the family department。

Dolochrilation has been ahead of the "empty nest period" of the adult couple，also reduced the family kinship network formed based on blood relationship。Of course，At the same time，The family network formed by the marriage relationship has also narrowed。This not only decreases the liquid of Li's doctrine formed based on acquaintance society，And also reduced the social capital of blood relatives and in -law families。From the moment the children leave their parents to choose to live alone，The support system formed based on the settings of traditional society is disintegrated。In the movement of movement，We should build and strengthen the support system for mobile society more realistic，Through the contract of society、Rule of rule of law to reduce social transaction costs，To maximize the various risks faced by family survival -preventing the fragile trend of the family。

During the modernization process，Family miniaturization and individualization of society will continue。

First，The proportion of aging increased the population of widowed and cohabitants。The phenomenon of divorce of the elderly will become increasingly prominent。In the process of supporting children and their spouses in the process of supporting children and their spouses, and in the process of forming a new livelihood，Parents will form a unity mechanism under the principle of altruism，Reduce the conflict between the spouse's mutual mutual mutual。The stronger the economy and education function of the family，The higher the degree of unity between family members。Under the influence of early nest period，If the economic and educational support from the elderly parents in the family is weakened，The long -term empty nest will highlight the conflict between the elderly couple，The phenomenon of divorce and remarriage of the elderly is gradually displayed，Children's coordination and integration function of children will be reduced，The phenomenon of living together will also be expressed with the change of the marriage relationship of the elderly。But the old cohabitation is no longer the kind of long -term cohabitation of traditional society，It may be a short -term cohabitation that occurs intermittently，It is the kind of mutual aid cohabitation that does not involve the distribution of family property and personal income。

2，Delay of the first marriage age。The average first marriage age of the Chinese people，Men have been postponed to an average of about 27 years old，Women are postponed to an average of about 25 years old。In some big cities、In almost all the large cities and oversized cities，The age of the first marriage has been postponed to the average male over 30 years old、Women average 28-29 years old。The late marriage, the late，The more single residential households, the more you are，The smaller the size of the household。

third，Active or passive non -marriage population increase。The change of lifestyle and values ​​brought by urbanization，Makes more and more people choose to actively live single or passive single life。The value concept of non -marriage life is accepted by society，There are more people who actively singles，Those who are passive because of love or family life will become more and more。Employment of the two places after social flow or marriage，The so -called "double city" Bet365 app download residence，or "two marriages" that are currently becoming trend in some places，It will also increase the proportion of the population of life alone。

Fourth，Divorce rate increases。In the last 40 years，my country's divorce rate tends to rise。In the modernization process of all industrialized countries，The divorce rate will increase rapidly in the later stage of industrialization，and maintain a high situation for a long time。The higher the divorce rate，The more single -parent families are，The smaller the size of the family households。

aging aging、Polo -child、Social flow、Marriage disintegration、Extension of life expectancy and expansion of single life opportunities，and the influence of social choices as a lifestyle，While expanding the ratio of single living to life，It also makes the entire society show a strong individualization trend。This will gradually change the type of family existence。The proportion of single -parent families will increase，The life of the child and his own biological father or the life of his own biological mother will become the norm。Family of non -fixed members、Short -term cohabitation family、Typical core families and incomplete families，All will constitute the individual power of society。

The individualization process of society，Increasing the protection pressure of individuals and families in the society。Only establish a very dense social insurance system and social support system，Increase community construction and improve the volunteer service system，Construction of social organization methods based on digital society，Strengthen the connection between the individual and society，Only in the process of individualization of society can be enhanced by the sense of gain of each social member、A sense of happiness and security，Let the people share modern results。

　　(The author is the Dean of the Institute of Social Development Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher)