A few years ago，Qingdao Municipal Procuratorate received a case。The general plot is，Someone refused to pay for the meal after the meal，Being stopped by the boss when leaving the restaurant；To escape，He picked up a wine bottle and injured the boss (later determined to be a minor injury by forensic medicine)；The boss immediately called the police，The police came and arrested this person。The case is very simple，But how to determine it has become a problem。In the review and prosecution stage，There are two opinions within the Procuratorate: one believes that it constitutes transformational bet365 offer，This means that the sentencing is likely to be more than three years；Another argument is that it should be punished as the crime of picking quarrels and provoking trouble，Because the circumstances are obviously minor，No need to prosecute。Qualitatively different，There is such a big gap in sentencing。

　The judicial resistance behind an ordinary bet365 offer case

Article 269 of the "Criminal bet365 offer" stipulates: "Committing theft、Fraud、Crime of robbery，To hide stolen goods、Resisting arrest or destroying evidence and using violence or threatening violence on the spot，Conviction and punishment in accordance with the provisions of Article 263 of this bet365 offer。”Forcibly eat the King’s meal and use violence afterwards，It does seem to meet the requirements for transformational robbery。However, in the eyes of many people，Eat the King’s Meal beforehand，Hit someone afterwards and caused minor injuries，Not a serious illegal act，Public security management penalties are enough。The reason why the second opinion advocates that it should be punished as the crime of picking quarrels and provoking trouble，Obviously because the investigators feel the same way - once it is classified as a transformational robbery，The starting sentence of three years is too harsh。

There will always be controversial cases encountered in the judicial process，The bet365 offer cannot exhaust the affairs of the world。But this case makes me particularly concerned，Intuition tells me，There may be a legislative error in Article 269 of the Criminal bet365 offer - there are systematic differences between transformational robbery and ordinary robbery，The same crime should not have been punished together。Although the constituent elements of the two crimes are exactly the same，They are all illegally seeking property and using violence，But transformational robbery is different from ordinary robbery，The former has a clear time limit between illegally obtaining property and using violence，This provides the victim with the opportunity to control their risk of physical harm。In other words，As long as the victim does not take any resistance measures，His body is safe，The loss is only property；Victims of ordinary robberies will not be so lucky，He had no opportunity to control the risk of physical harm，Even if you choose to escape、Submit or give up resistance，Still unsure of one’s personal safety。

If transformational robbery is a far safer crime than ordinary robbery，Then just for this reason，The legal punishment should be systematically lighter than that of ordinary robbery。Of course，This is just reasoning，How to verify this reasoning？The judgment of desirability cannot be verified from the front，I can only think of a side verification method: if transformation robbery is indeed less systematic than ordinary robbery，Then the judge will react during the sentencing process，To a certain extent, it deviates from the same sentence for the same crime as stipulated in Article 269 of the Criminal bet365 offer，Because the bet365 offer cannot completely tame the judge’s moral intuition。

One case cannot explain the problem，To verify the above reasoning，Need a sufficient number of samples and sufficiently detailed quantitative research。My colleague Associate Professor Wang Yue is good at various data analysis。After Wang Yue understood the logic of this argument，Work started quickly，She was viewing the China Judgment Documents Network，This is the largest judgment document database in China。Based on the population proportion of each province，She conducted a stratified random sampling of the first-instance verdicts of two crimes of robbery，A total of 2603 samples were formed，Among them，376 transformation samples，2227 ordinary samples。For completing our research，This number of samples is enough。Then，She used two methods: coarsening paired analysis and regression analysis to process these samples，The final statistical conclusion is very significant: other plots are roughly the same，Conversion robberies are reduced by 4 on average in non-probation cases compared to ordinary robberies.15 months sentence。What does this conclusion mean？Explanation that Article 269 of the Criminal bet365 offer has encountered certain judicial resistance。

So far，Empirical research itself only provides reasons to suspect legislative errors，It has not been proven that Article 269 of the Criminal bet365 offer is indeed a legislative error。Judicial resistance just means that this bet365 offer is not perfectly implemented，But maybe the judge is wrong。Simply put，Empirical research just marked this legal provision with a red alert，But continue to rule out the possibility of “false positive” alerts，We still need further thinking。Then another question surfaced: assuming that Article 269 of the "Criminal bet365 offer" is a legislative error，So what is the root cause of the error？

　　Out of the morphological characteristics of traditional criminal bet365 offer

​​The criminal bet365 offer treats transformational robbery as the same crime as ordinary robbery，Based on a basic assumption of criminal bet365 offer theory: if the key elements of two crimes are roughly the same，Then the guilt assessment and corresponding punishment for the two crimes should be roughly the same。Is there any problem with this assumption?？If the answer is no，Then our empirical research is even more significant，The research conclusion does not only point to a specific legislative error，And further points to the traditional criminal bet365 offer theory。

Of course，We cannot completely deny the hypothesis of criminal bet365 offer theory and it cannot be completely wrong，Otherwise the entire criminal justice system would have been in complete chaos。At best we can demonstrate that there are some inherent deficiencies in criminal bet365 offer theory，The probability of that assumption being wrong is very high。The advantages and disadvantages of theories are in a comparative sense，We want to demonstrate that traditional criminal bet365 offer theory is unsatisfactory，We need to take out the object of comparison。This means we need to come up with a competing theory，And this theory must also meet the following two conditions，At least one of them: one has stronger explanatory power，Less errors than traditional criminal bet365 offer theory；The second is simpler、Easier to operate。

In response to this theoretical challenge，We are based on the famous TFT rule in evolutionary game theory，By relaxing the assumptions、Add variable，Decodes human moral intuitions about guilt evaluation to a large extent，Then constructing a retribution model that can relatively accurately describe the appropriate crime and punishment。This model includes the possibility of crime、Crime success rate、Several variables such as the actual loss of crime and the probability of arrest。On the one hand，All concepts in criminal bet365 offer theory can be reduced to these four variables (we did a simple search)；On the other hand，By evaluating these variables，Can significantly optimize the quality of legal decisions (we also did a simple test)。To this point，We have actually proposed a theory that can compete with traditional criminal jurisprudence。

Look back，You can give a more in-depth explanation of the conclusions of the empirical research。Compared to ordinary robbery，Conversion robbery shows systematic differences in the above indicators。First，Conversion robbery is difficult to commit again - even if the potential criminal chooses to continue committing the crime，It is also difficult to meet the conversion conditions at the same time，Therefore the overall statistical frequency of crime should be significantly lower than that of ordinary robberies。Secondly，Because the victim can actually decide whether the crime will be converted or not，Therefore the probability of successful robbery should be lower than that of ordinary robbery。Finally，Under the condition that the victim has the opportunity to intervene in the criminal process，The detection probability of transformational robbery will definitely be significantly higher than that of ordinary robbery。Generally speaking，Even if in hindsight, the losses caused by a specific transformation robbery are no different from the robbery，It seems to be a relatively minor crime in advance。A puzzling problem in traditional criminal bet365 offer，Solved within our theoretical framework。Although the success of an example cannot prove the success of a theory，But our research provides a path to repeating similar success，This shows that the research itself is open。

We can continue to ask questions，If there are flaws in traditional criminal bet365 offer theory，Then what is the source of the defect？While exploring a competing theory，We also need to make a more in-depth analysis of its competitors—traditional criminal bet365 offer theory and its assumption of equal punishment for the same crime。We discovered and demonstrated，The main method of traditional criminal bet365 offer is to summarize the superficial characteristics of different crimes，They are called constituent elements，Different combinations of elements define different crime types，Traditional criminal bet365 offer has thus developed a methodology based on identification of elements。Although this method works - as long as the society is relatively stable，The combination of elements used to define a certain behavior pattern does not need to be modified frequently，The entire body of knowledge can look neat for hundreds of years - but due to the inherent shortcomings of induction and the fact that the objects of induction are only superficial characteristics of criminal behavior，Traditional criminal bet365 offer theory cannot escape the limitations of morphological thinking，Errors in legal decision-making are inevitable。The mistake of sharing the same punishment is similar to mistaking a dolphin for a fish。

In addition，The conceptual system of criminal bet365 offer also needs to be sorted out。Although criminal bet365 offer also relies on human moral intuition，But the variables could not be parsed，But just created some descriptive concepts。If intentional、Error、Planning、Impulse、Purpose、Motive、Criminal circumstances、Hazardous、Personal danger、Criminal legal concepts such as expectation，And philosophical concepts such as corrective justice and retributive justice，They all belong to the vague expression of "knowing it but not knowing why"。These concepts cannot be measured，Cannot be calculated either，The trouble caused by this is self-evident，Easy to cause misjudgment，Communication and arguments are inefficient。Replace these unmeasurable descriptive concepts with measurable variables，can alleviate the above problems to a great extent，Thus overcoming the inherent limitations of morphological thinking。

　Overlap of bet365 offer and Theoretical:Do bet365 offer with your eyes and heart

Given that the retributive model is more successful at decoding human moral intuitions，We put forward the corresponding methodological proposition: get rid of morphological thinking，From "requirement identification" to "variable evaluation"。If there was no such methodological turn，It is impossible for us to find that cases of violence caused by forcibly eating the King's meal are actually closer to bet365 offer，Although it looks more like a bet365 offer。It is even less likely to find that transformational bet365 offer is overall a safer crime than ordinary bet365 offer，Sentencing should systematically be lighter than for ordinary bet365 offer。

While exploring theory，The conclusion of the empirical study—Article 269 of the Criminal Code encountered judicial resistance—has also received a more in-depth explanation。Judicial resistance is the court system’s subconscious correction and rebound of legislative errors，The moral intuition of judges acts as a buffer or even a firewall when sentencing。Of course the judges understand，Regardless of the bet365 offer，Still based on legal theory，Conversion robbery should be punished with the same crime as ordinary robbery；But after learning more about the case，The judge’s moral intuition will be awakened by the details of the case。Within the scope of discretion，It can function independently of legal provisions and legal theories。The bet365 offer will not be thrown aside，But there are other factors that affect the judgment besides the bet365 offer。From another perspective，Legislative errors, like any mistakes, have additional costs，Even if it is just for cost control，Correction or mitigation of errors are inevitable options。Errors are hard to endure，Errors in legislation are difficult to perpetuate tenaciously in the judicial process。

Throughout the entire research process，We deeply feel it，Combining empirical research and theoretical exploration，Not only can the short and long complement each other，And they can support each other，Thereby creating a superimposed effect。On the one hand，Empirical research can provide irreplaceable discussion basis and analytical material for theoretical research，Overcome the "air-to-air" problem of theoretical research to a large extent。On the other hand，Theoretical exploration can amplify the value of empirical research，In turn, it can also make more in-depth research conclusions、More comprehensive explanation。Although we admit it，Even if empirical research and theoretical research are added together，It cannot be proved 100% that Article 269 of the Criminal bet365 offer is a legislative error。

To complete such bet365 offer，Preliminary knowledge accumulation and thinking reserve are indispensable，Inspiration only appears in the prepared mind。Although the order of our writing is empirical first and then theory，But the order of thinking is intertwined。If there is no theoretical intuition that has been formed long ago，It is impossible to discover the fact itself，It is even more impossible to analyze those data。A lot of data and facts are there，Like a mine rich in mineral deposits。To dig out mineral deposits from the mine，Relying only on eyes is not enough，Must have a brain。Only by looking carefully can we complete truly valuable empirical bet365 offer，If you have eyes but no intention, you can usually just turn a blind eye or turn a blind eye。

　(The author is the Dean of the bet365 offer School of Ocean University of China)