Current，"Model" has become a concept that the public often contacts，Prediction in economic prediction、Traffic Traffic Plan、Weather forecast、User portrait、In various information such as the analysis of the securities market，"Model" is a frequent word。Especially after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia，Public sector and private sectors rely on the infectious disease model to make decisions to varying degrees。It can be said，Whether in scientific research、Public policy field，Still in people’s daily life，Models occupy an increasingly important position。

　　Bet365 lotto review

According to the Dean of the Graduate School of Education and Human Development of George Washington University、Professor Michael J. Feuer of Education Policy Introduction，The model is the formal of complex phenomena、Logical mathematics or statistical representation，The purpose is to guide rational action or provide useful information for decision makers。The design purpose of many models is based on detailed instructions for the current situation、Fundamental behavior theory、Assumptions or known relationships between related parameters to predict trends and results。For example，Population growth model can combine multiple factors, etc. to estimate the life bet365 Play online games span of the population under specific conditions。

A model contains probability elements。For example，Under the premise of unchanged quality，A consumer who wants to rationally allocate resources is more likely to buy certain products or services when the price is reduced。This intuitive and obvious relationship between the price and consumption is the core element of economics theory and empirical measurement economics，It associates human behavior and organizational behavior theory with inference and prediction statistical methods。

Another type of model from mathematical planning and operational science aims to guide decisions based on known parameters。For example，To minimize the production cost of one piece of clothing under the limitation of the quality and material quality。This model provides a clear goal to provide algorithm optimal solution，They tend to be standardized rather than descriptive，That is to specify action rather than describing、Forecast、Explain the behavior observed，The equations and analysis methods in which more dependencies are relying on the relationship between parameters rather than probability assumptions。

There is also a model based on the assumptions of human will to study the expectations and results caused by personal choices。For example，Game theory and the famous "prisoner's dilemma" greatly promoted the progress of traditional economics theory of choice and competition，It affects the organization design、bet365 live casino games Supervision、Public policy formulation。The basic logic here is not the principle of mathematics or statistics，Instead, starting from the autonomous action of the individual may produce the basic concept of collective externality，Estimated the scale and distribution of these externalities，and design a solution to reduce negative externality，This requires formalized model construction and empirical test。

other，Under many daily scenarios，People use informal、Use the model by default; or，Reasonable Thinners use "Psychological Model"。For example，People will observe the weather conditions、Weather forecast message push、Past experience、Travel plan and other factors to decide whether to bring an umbrella。

　　The model is not "omnipotent"

Fayer talks，The model itself is not perfect。At the same time，Human behavior is often not dominated by formal calculation results，The response in the face of risks and even superstition to supernatural phenomena will drive people to make a move that does not meet the strict rational standards，Inschers、Self -doubt and other emotions may deviate from the "positive track" at the technical level。Therefore，It is necessary to use it carefully to use the model。

Fayer said，For any model，Modeller chooses which variables to be included in the consideration to a certain extent with randomness。The existence of error may run through the description of complex phenomena、Explanation、Forecast in any link。

Fayer continues to talk about，In Merit Economics，Bet365 lotto review You need to estimate the specific impact of a change of one or a series of independent variables on a clear result。In a model with calculation of parameters as the main task，Error may originated from the choice of variables and uncertainty in the potential relationship，errors in the policy model are also related to the basic reality in behavioral science and social sciences。Scientific experiments to reduce or eliminate the effects of external factors through strict control，But such a laboratory environment and operation plan cannot or it is difficult to introduce complex、In the scene of unstable human response。It aims to make more reliable efforts on the quantitative level of behavior and social relationships that bring huge methodology progress，But it has also caused people to overestimate the accuracy of these studies。

Cause and causality are also two concepts that are often confused，It is not because there is a correlation between the two variables that there is a causal relationship between them。For example，We cannot just be based on children who often watch TV.，It is concluded that watching TV will aggravate the tendency of children's violence，Because children with a strong tendency to watch more possibilities are more likely to watch TV。Establishing causality needs to be used to determine the role of various factors，Random control experiments are regarded by many people as "gold standard"，But its economic and time cost is higher，Sometimes there are ethical risks。

Bet365 app download Founding Director of the American Social Theory Promotion Foundation、Part -time professor at Capella University Steven E. Wallis said，A reasonable design can provide more accurate reality、More practical "View"，Thinking as an individual and group、Forecast、Reference for decision -making and action。But，Most models are biased towards simplified and linear，Unable to reflect complicated、Unicom of each other、Systemic real world。Another，Models are often created by experts in a single field，But solving complex problems in the real world often requires multi -disciplinary knowledge、Experts or public participation in multiple regions and countries are required。If a model is just the "work" of a few scholars in the "ivory tower"，It is likely to be weak; too simple、Full structures often cause unexpected problems，This is sometimes more serious than the problem it should be solved。

　　Give full play to the role of the model

Wloris said，Each model can partially reflects reality and provides useful knowledge。But because of the lack of understanding of the model of the model、No participation in design，Policy makers and the public sometimes ignore or do not trust the model，Basic principle of popularizing the model to them、Uses and usage methods can increase their acceptance of the model and make the optimal decision with the help of the model。Scientific researchers can start with the following two aspects to improve model research and design，to make the model fully bet365 best casino games give full play to the auxiliary policy、Guide the role of individual and group behavior。

First，Strengthen the connection between scientific research and policy formulation。Many scientific research results are not known or understood by policy makers，The reason is that policy makers do not have enough time to study academic works。Next，Model represents data、Structure、Related three dimensions of knowledge collection，Therefore, the policy model needs to be based on larger data、Expand the source range of the input information、Improve the model structure。Current，Scientific researchers can use some newly developed methods to strictly perform the model、Objective assessment and improvement。

From Fayer's view，People are building、Use、When evaluating the model, you need to consider the simplicity of the model、The generality contains the subtle difference、Between the ability of detail information。The model's effectiveness of the conclusion is affected by many factors，such as data quality，Assuming whether it is rigorous and powerful，Follow the preferences of intuition or analytical thinking，How do people deal with prejudice in decision -making、Values ​​and beliefs。Although there are defects and limitations in the model，Proper use of model decision tools still have important value。