Forecast market is more credible
August 24, 2020 09:23 Source: "China Social Sciences" August 24, 2020 Total 1995 Author: Wang Youran/Compilation

  Bet365 app download According to the official website of the riverside branch of the University of the United States August 19th,The school's associate professor of management, Boris Maciejovsky, and the latest research of David Budescu, a professor of psychological measurement and quantitative psychology at Ford Ham University of Ford Ham, discovered,People think that the transparency of group decisions is higher、More trustworthy,Suspicious attitude to the algorithm,Therefore, it is more willing to make decisions through groups instead of predicting the market。Prediction Market (Prediction Market) is a place where the prediction of future events (such as elections or awards) is a place where the transaction objects。

In this article entitled "Too Much Trust in Group Decisions: Uncon Hidden Profiles and Markets),The author mentioned,The predicted market is predicted by collecting and integrating a large number of participants,The accuracy of decision -making based on this prediction is high。Comparison of comparison,Groups are usually smaller,Contains more homogeneous information and knowledge,It is also easier to be manipulated。Conflict between members bet365 best casino games of the group、Organization and personal goals inconsistent、persuasive consultation or voting may cause poor group decision -making。But,The predicted market is not generally used by large organizations,Macinovsky and Budsku analyzed the cause through experiments。

In an experiment,Participants need to choose a management personnel in a face -to -face group or online forecast market,The information of the candidate mastered by all the participants is the same。Researchers allocate different roles and economic rewards to members of the group,Forecast market members have only been assigned different economic rewards。Experimental results indicate,When the rewards and interests owned by members of the Bet365 lotto review group,The decisions they make are better than the forecast market; when there is a conflict between the interests between members of the group,The decision made by them is not as predicted to the market。but,Groups still gain more trust,The negative impact of conflicts between members of group members on the quality of decision -making is ignored。Participants of another experiment have participated in a large -scale prediction project,Sometimes relying on groups and sometimes rely on predicting market decisions。This experimental results show,People think that their most familiar group forms are more transparent than forecasting markets、Fair、Honesty。but but,The bet365 best casino games trust in the forecast market will increase with increased experience。

Researchers think,It is difficult for people to trust the abstract mechanism of predicting the market at the beginning,Although it is more reliable、less affected by prejudice。but but,After forming use habits,People will trust the forecast market more,Make it a useful decision tool。

 (Wang Youran/Compilation)

Editor in charge: Wang Ning
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