1987，Paul Kennedy, a professor of history at Yale University in the United States, published his famous work "The Rise and Fall bet365 apuestas Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict, 1500-2000" Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000，hereinafter referred to as "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers") book。The book takes a global perspective、Fascinating insights、The rich and detailed analysis of historical data is refreshing，As soon as it was published, it caused a sensation in the international academic and political circles，Has been translated into 23 languages ​​so far。Kennedy publicly stated，2022，He will revise and add new chapters to "The Rise and Fall bet365 apuestas Great Powers"。At the same time，Today, when the international system is facing extensive and profound adjustments，International politics scholars are still talking about the rise and decline of great power strength and the replacement of international power involved in this book。Then，What kind of academic judgment is Kennedy’s prediction bet365 apuestas direction of a great power based on?？How to rethink the contemporary significance of "The Rise and Fall bet365 apuestas Great Powers"？What are the determining factors for the rise and decline of a country？To explore the above issues，The reporter sorted out relevant academic views and interviewed foreign scholars。

　　Prediction that the United bet365 apuestas toward “relative decline”

In his work, Kennedy examines the evolution bet365 apuestas national power of great powers and the changes in the world pattern from 1500 to 2000。In the last chapter，He predicted America、Soviet Union、China、Japan and Western Europe will become the five major power centers in the 21st century。Among them，The prediction that the United States will move toward "relative decline" received great attention from the U.S. Congress at that time，Also made Kennedy controversial。In an interview with the media，Kennedy responded，Judging the rise and fall of a country should be based on 50 years、A major trend in 100 or even 150 years。The United States will not decline or collapse immediately，But if the series of problems caused by over-expansion continue，The United States will become relatively declining。

Kennedy still says，The main point bet365 apuestas book "the economic foundation of a big country determines and affects its relative status" does not need to be changed。Kennedy thinks，Invest enough resources to maintain economic growth，In order to maintain the status of a powerful country。As he wrote in his book: "The shift in economic power heralds the rise of new powers。”

Another core argument of Kennedy is: Economic potential determines military power，And there is an interactive relationship between the two。He pointed out，“Wealth is usually the basis for supporting military power，To acquire and defend wealth，Military power is always needed”。After a great power realizes its decline in a period of relative decline，will become increasingly aware bet365 apuestas “insecurity” bet365 apuestas international environment，And instinctively spend more money on defense and security，As a result, resources available for economic investment or productive wealth creation will decline。When the balance tilts too seriously toward unproductive military power，The domestic economy will inevitably be dragged down，Ultimately weaken the overall strength bet365 apuestas country。Therefore，Kennedy concluded，Continuous expansion of foreign strategies leads to rising military expenditures，Ultimately, the country’s economic foundation was overwhelmed，It is the beginning of a long-term decline of a great country。It is precisely based on this，Kennedy made a prediction that the United States will move towards relative decline。

　　Warnings about “state overreach” bet365 apuestas have meaning

bet365 apuestas book，Kennedy questioned the behavior of some countries in large-scale military intervention in other countries: What are the costs of these military actions？What can this country afford？Will costly military operations result in huge deficits，And ultimately weaken rather than strengthen national security？Kennedy explained，Potential benefits from external expansion，Most likely offset by the huge price paid for it。If this country is in a period of relative economic recession，This dilemma will become more serious。This warning for Kennedy，Many scholars agree。

Robert Toplin, Emeritus Professor of History at the University of North Carolina, USA, wrote an article，“The danger of state overextension，It still has important practical significance today" is the main argument put forward by Paul Kennedy in the book "The Rise and Fall bet365 apuestas Great Powers"。

Toplin wrote，1980s，American people are worried about the ballooning defense budget under President Reagan，Kennedy’s works came out in this domestic context。The book’s arguments aroused great interest among American readers，Especially the explanation bet365 apuestas correlation between economy and military has resonated with a large number of American people。But soon after the publication of "The Rise and Fall bet365 apuestas Great Powers"，The American public's interest in this book has declined significantly。The reason is，The Germans tore down the Berlin Wall in 1989，The disintegration bet365 apuestas Soviet Union in 1991。The strong development bet365 apuestas U.S. economy makes Kennedy’s prediction of “American decline” look less convincing，Many people call him a "bad prophet"。Late 1990s，The U.S. government has a budget surplus—the American people are looking forward to the country’s progress with great hope，Instead of decline。

However，Today in the 21st century，The American people have once again fallen into a pessimistic mood that is difficult to eliminate。Toplin wrote，People know it，The U.S. economy has lost traction，The deficit is spiraling。And Kennedy’s remarks as early as 1987 seemed quite insightful at this time。Toplin mentioned，The United States accounts for nearly half bet365 apuestas world’s military spending，U.S. troops are currently stationed in more than 150 countries。Nobel Prize winner in economics Joseph Stiglitz (Joseph Stiglitz) and Harvard University political science professor Linda Bilms (Linda Bilms) proposed in the book，The U.S. military investment in Iraq and Afghanistan was nearly 10 times that bet365 apuestas first Gulf War，1/3 more than the Vietnam War，Twice as much as when the United States entered World War I。The New York Times commented，This war harmed the interests of Americans，Seriously affecting the US economy。

Alfred W, an expert on the history of world empires.McCoy (Alfred W. McCoy) once analyzed a series of "shadow wars" launched by the United States after the Cold War to maintain its expansionary hegemony。He thinks，In addition to hundreds of bet365 apuestas bases around the world，The formidable stockpile of nuclear weapons、Large-scale air and maritime forces and overseas garrisons，The United States monitors the world through the National Security Agency、CIA covert operations on other continents、Cyber ​​War、Manipulation of elections, etc.，Constructed a powerful secret war weapon。

Kennedy warned in his book，“Washington policymakers must face an embarrassing and enduring fact，The sum bet365 apuestas United States’ global interests and obligations，Far greater than the United States’ ability to simultaneously defend these interests and obligations”。Except the United States，Kennedy also used considerable ink to describe the process of Germany and Japan becoming world powers through military expansion in the 1930s and 1940s，And call the two militarized "revisionist" countries。Some scholars believe，Germany、Japan started with war，Fell into decline again due to war。Therefore，It is not advisable to use military expansion to solve domestic resource shortages。This view is consistent with Kennedy’s “danger of national overreach”。

As Kennedy emphasized，The leaders of any country should be aware bet365 apuestas interaction between military strategy and economic development。“If a country’s policy formulation exceeds the capacity of its material resources，In the long run，This country will be less safe。”This conclusion still has great warning significance today。

　　Some of bet365 apuestas views need to be re-discussed

While affirming the strategic thinking and academic value of "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers"，Many scholars believe that，Kennedy’s thoughts cannot escape the traditional historical framework after all。As a historian，Kennedy’s judgment on international relations is based on the world historical perspective rather than the international system itself。Kennedy’s views on the rise and fall of major powers bet365 apuestas world、Reflections on experiences and lessons learned from successes and failures，It’s more of a “law summed up from historical events”。

Kennedy wrote in the book: "A long and vexing war is a litmus test bet365 apuestas strength of both sides... There is no doubt that，In a long war between great powers (usually alliances)，Victory often belongs to the side with a solid economic foundation，Maybe it belongs to the party that still has financial resources in the end。Many bet365 apuestas facts described in this book will prove，This important point is ironic，But it is correct。”To this，Henry R. Professor Emeritus, Eliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University.Henry R. Nau) published an article "Why Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of Great Powers Has Flaws" stated，Even though Kennedy emphasized the importance of "financial resources" in the rise and fall of a country，But no universal business cycle theory is proposed in the book；Even though he emphasized that "a country's victory in a war" is an important factor in considering the rise of a great power，But it has not been explained what kind of social system or government organization is the most effective in helping a country win in a war。As a historian，Kennedy advocates facts and abandons theories，Just summarize some "generally valid conclusions" by examining historical records，And he admits that this conclusion cannot be applied in all situations，It is not ruled out that there may be an incident。As Kennedy pointed out，“Although we can attribute the occurrence of some wars (such as World War II) to the fact that policymakers are afraid of changes in the balance of power in the world，But this conclusion does not help explain the American Revolutionary War that began in 1775、The French Revolutionary War of 1792 and the Crimean War of 1853"。

In addition，Kennedy emphasized，The rise and fall of great powers is relative，Depending on the comparison bet365 apuestas rise and fall of strength with other countries in the international environment。In his book, he quoted the famous saying of Philipp Wilhelm von Hornick, a supporter of European mercantilism: "Whether a country is currently rich or powerful does not depend on the power it possesses. and wealth，It mainly depends on the strength and wealth bet365 apuestas neighboring countries。”Kennedy further pointed out，The Netherlands in the mid-18th century was definitely richer than 100 years ago，But it is no longer a great power，Because neighboring France and Britain have more power and wealth than it。France in 1914 was undoubtedly stronger than France in 1850，But compared with the powerful Germany，France is slightly inferior。Compared to the heyday (mid-Victorian era)，Britain now has far more wealth，The weapons their army possesses are also much more powerful。But these are meaningless，Because its product output has dropped from 25% bet365 apuestas global total to about 3%。If a country is stronger than its neighbors，It’s life will be easier；If a country is weaker than its neighbors，It will be in trouble。

Regarding Kennedy’s argument，Some scholars believe，Kennedy is too focused on the horizontal comparison bet365 apuestas strength of major powers，And weaken the "natural decline" factors caused by the decline of national power of big countries。The survival of a country、The cycle of rise and fall will also follow certain natural laws，This law depends not only on the external pressure exerted by other countries，It depends more on maintaining your own strength。If a country can store its national strength for a long time，It can be evergreen all year round；But if we allow decadent national governance，It will inevitably embark on the road of decline。Kennedy certainly predicted that the Soviet Union might face decline in "The Rise and Fall bet365 apuestas Great Powers"，But he never expected that the Soviet Union would collapse in just a few years。He thinks，Even if the Soviet Union declines，It will also end in the form of an arms race or a great power war。But in fact，The disintegration bet365 apuestas Soviet Union was the destruction of a great power under peaceful conditions。Whether it is the rigid system caused by the highly closed planned economy，It is still an economic crisis caused by the over-development of arms industry and heavy industry，Or social unrest caused by wrong political trends，All fully explained，The fundamental factor that pushed this once prosperous country onto the path of despair is natural decline，And the “decline in competition” caused by the Cold War power confrontation is only a boosting factor。As Chinese International Strategic Studies scholar Huang Renwei said，“The Soviet Union is a vast country、A big country rich in resources，It has the potential advantage to become a world power。And there is no threat from powerful countries around it...The failure bet365 apuestas Soviet Union was mainly due to internal factors，It was not defeated by the world war，But it was dragged down in the institutional competition”。

Talking about this，Henry R. Nuo told reporters，Kennedy ignored the country’s internal institutional factors，These factors are in addition to the advanced nature bet365 apuestas system itself，Also includes domestic political identity、Shared values、Social cohesion, etc.。Kennedy was a realist，View the change of world power mainly from the perspective of struggle。In fact，One side bet365 apuestas "power coin" is the country's ability to possess weapons and wealth，The other side is the state’s ability to inspire citizens’ confidence and encourage them to use state power。Lack of second point，The first point cannot be established。However，Kennedy’s assessment bet365 apuestas dimensions of international life ignores the other side bet365 apuestas coin。Henry R. No explained，After 1970，The relative military strength bet365 apuestas Soviet Union and the United States has changed little，But the difference is，The domestic political acceptance and citizens’ support for government power in the two countries have changed。After going through the “Trouble Times” from the late 1960s to the 1970s，American citizens regained confidence in domestic political and market systems in the early 1990s。Soviet citizens were gradually disillusioned with their domestic system，Finally rejected the Soviet government’s right to use force in self-defense。From this point of view，The collapse of domestic political identity in the Soviet Union is an important factor。

Academician bet365 apuestas British National Academy、Michael Braddick, professor of history at the University of Sheffield, explained to reporters，The political system needs to rely on "legitimacy" rather than "coercion" to raise government funds and mobilize domestic political will。A regime that relies solely on coercion is fragile，It is easy to be hollowed out，It is easy to suddenly be on the verge of collapse。And "legitimacy" requires mobilizing widespread public support and participation in politics。History，The demise bet365 apuestas Ottoman Empire and the disintegration bet365 apuestas Soviet Union were largely due to this failure。

Braddick added，Kennedy’s work has some very revealing ideas，The macro-historical evidence in the development bet365 apuestas world can also prove the correctness of some of his remarks。However，Some points in the book need to be re-discussed。Economy and military play a very important role in determining the dominance of national power，But it is not the only factor that defines the strength of a great power。The United States’ dominance in the 20th century and today comes not only from its economic and military strength，Also benefits from the relationship between seigniorage and the US dollar、Core technology (this factor becomes increasingly important)、National strategic capabilities、Cultural influence、The popularity of language in the world, etc.。Also，Soft factors such as national credibility should also be included。For example，The United States is faced with being questioned about its hypocrisy in today’s international system、Unreliability and other issues，This is also a negative impact on the national strength bet365 apuestas United States。Therefore，Kennedy’s views need to be reinterpreted from a broad perspective。