1987，Professor Paul Kennedy, a professor at the History Department of Yale University, published its famous work "The Rise and Loss of the Great Power: The Rise AND FALL of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Mility Conflict from 1500 to 2000，The following is referred to as "The rise and fall of the Great Power")。The book uses global grand vision、Fastened profound insights、Rich and informative historical analysis is refreshing，Once published, it has caused a sensation in the international academic and political circles，So far translated into 23 languages。Kennedy publicly said，2022，He will revise and add a new chapter for "The rise and fall of the great power"。At the same time，Today's international system is facing extensive and profound adjustments，International political scholars still the power of the great power involved in this book and the international power more for the power。So，What kind of academic judgment is the prediction of the big country in Kennedy's writing? How should we rethink the contemporary significance of "The rise and fall of the Great Power"?，The reporter sorted out the views of the relevant academic community and interviewed foreign scholars。

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Kennedy reviewed the evolution of the national strength and the change of the world pattern between 1500 and 2000 in the works。In the last chapter，He predicts the United States、Soviet、China、Japan and Western Europe will become the five major power centers of the 21st century。Where，The prediction of the United States will be "relatively declining" by the United States, which has attracted great attention from the US Congress at that time，Also controversial Kennedy。In an interview with the media，Kennedy once responded to，Judging the rise and fall of a country should be based on 50 years、A major trend of 100 years or even 150 years。The United States will not decline or collapse immediately，but a series of problems caused by excessive expansion, if it continues，The United States will become relatively declining。

Kennedy still said to this day，The main point of this book "The economic foundation of the great power and the relative status that affects it" does not need to be changed。Kennedy thinks，Investment with sufficient resources to maintain economic growth，can maintain the status of a strong country。As Bet365 lotto review he wrote in the book: "The transfer of economic power foreshadows the rise of new powers。”

Another core argument of Kennedy is: economic potential determines military power，And the interactive relationship between the two。He pointed out，"Wealth is usually the basis for supporting military forces，To obtain and defend wealth，Always require military power "。During the relative decline, the big country realized that I was going downhill.，It will notice the "unsafe" of the international environment，It will notice the "unsafe" of the international environment，Therefore, the resources created by economic investment or productive wealth will decline。When the non -productive military force is tilted too seriously on the day，The domestic economy will inevitably be dragged down，Eventually weakening the overall strength of the country。So，Kennedy Summary Road，Continuous expansion of foreign strategy leads to rising military expenses，Finally, the national economic foundation is overwhelmed，is the beginning of a long -term decline in a big country。Also based on this，Kennedy made the prediction of the United States that will move towards relatively decline。

　　The warning of "National Excessive Expansion" is still meaningful

In the book，Kennedy questioned some countries' acts of large -scale military intervention in other countries: What are the costs of these military operations? What can this country be buried?，and eventually weaken instead of strengthening national security? Kennedy Explanation，The potential benefits obtained by expanding external expansion，It is likely to be offset by the huge cost of it for it。If this country is in a period of economic relative recession，This dilemma will become more serious。This warning of Kennedy，Many scholars recognize the same attitude。

Professor Robert Toplin of the University of North Carolina, the University of North Carolina, wrote，"The danger of excessive expansion of the country，It still has important practical significance so far "is the main argument proposed by Paul Kennedy in the book" The rise and fall of the great power "。

Writing Topin，2080s，​​The American people are worried about the defense budget of continuous expansion during President Reagan's administration，Kennedy's works are born in such a domestic background。The argument of this book aroused great interest in American readers，Especially the interpretation of the correlation between the economy and the military has resonated with a large number of American people。But "The rise and fall of the Great Power" was published shortly after bet365 best casino games the publication，The interest of the American public about this book is a significant decline。The reason is，1989 The Germans pushed down the Berlin Wall，1991 Soviet disintegration。The momentum of the strong development of the US economy makes Kennedy's prediction of "American decline" less convincing，Many people call him "bad prophet"。At the end of the 1990s，Budget surplus in the U.S. government -American people are looking forward to national progress with hope，not decline。

，Today in the 21st century，The American people are in a pessimistic mood that is difficult to eliminate。Top Lin wrote，People know，The US economy has lost its traction，The deficit is showing a spiral rising。and Kennedy's remarks in 1987 seemed quite insightful at this time。Topin mentioned，US military expenditure occupies nearly half of the world，The U.S. Army is currently stationed in more than 150 countries。Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard University Linda Bilms, Professor of Political Science at Harvard University, put forward，Military investment in the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan is nearly 10 times the first Gulf War，1/3 more than the Vietnamese war，It is 2 times when the United States participated in the First World War。"New York Times" comment，This war harmed the interests of Americans，seriously affects the US economy。

Alfred W. McCoy, an expert in the History of the World Empire, has analyzed a series of "Shadow War" launched by the United States to maintain its expansion hegemony after the Cold War。He thinks，Except hundreds of military bases surround the world，A fearful nuclear weapon reserves、Large -scale air maritime power and overseas garrison，U.S. monitoring global monitoring through the National Security Agency、The Secret Action of the Central Intelligence Bureau on other mainland、Network War、Control election, etc.，Build a powerful secret war weapon。

Kennedy warning in the book，"The decision makers of Washington must face an embarrassing and lasting fact，The sum of the United States' global interests and obligations，The ability to defend these interests and obligations at the same time as much as the United States "。Except the United States，Kennedy also used a considerable pen and ink to describe the process in the 1930s and 1940s.，3998_4018。Some scholars think，De、Starting from war，Also fell into decline due to war。So，It is not advisable to solve the shortage of domestic resources with military expansion。This view is in line with the Bet365 app download "danger of excessive expansion" proposed by Kennedy。

As Kennedy emphasized，Leaders in any country should realize the interaction between military strategy and economic development。"If the policy formulation of a country exceeds the ability to carry the material resources，From the long run，This country will not be so safe。"The conclusion still seems to have great warning significance today。

　　Some viewpoints of Kennedy need to be re -discussed

At the same time of affirming the strategic thoughts and academic value of "The rise and fall of the Great Power"，Many scholars think，Kennedy's thoughts can finally get rid of the traditional historic framework。As a historian，Kennedy's judgment of international relations is based on the world's historical perspective rather than the international system itself。Kennedy's death and decline of the world's major countries、Reflection of the lesson of failure and loss of success or failure，More is a "law summarized from historical events"。

Kennedy wrote in the book: "A troubled long -term war is the test gold stone that tests the strength of both parties ...，In a long -term war between a large country (usually the alliance)，Victory often belongs to a solid one party with a solid economic foundation，or the party that is still wealthy last。Many facts described in this book will be proof，This important point of view is ironic，But it is correct。""，George Washington University Eliot International Affairs School of International Affairs, Professor Rongxiu, Henry R. NAU, published "Why the Vulnerability of the Great Country in Paul Kennedy's Pens"，Even though Kennedy emphasizes the importance of "wealth" in the rise and fall of the country，But the general economic cycle theory is not proposed in the book; even though he emphasizes that "the country's victory in the war" is an important factor in considering the rise of a large country，But what kind of social system or government organization has not explained is the most effective for helping a country win in the war.。As a historian，Kennedy advocates the facts and abandon the theory，Just summarize some "general effective conclusions" by inspecting historical records，And he acknowledged that this conclusion cannot be applied to all situations，Do not rule out that there is a case that happens。As Kennedy pointed out，"Although we can attribute the causes of some wars (such as World War II) to the decision maker's fear of the comparison of the power of the world，But this conclusion does not help explain the American Independence War, which began in 1775、The French Bet365 lotto review Revolutionary War in 1792 and the Crimean War in 1853 "。

，Kennedy emphasized，The rise and fall of the big country is relative，Depending on the comparison of the strength of the strength of other countries in the international environment。He quoted European Reward supporters Philipp Wilhelm Von Hornick in the book: "Whether a country is currently rich and strong or not depends on its own power And wealth，It mainly depends on the size of the power of neighboring countries and the amount of wealth。"Kennedy further pointed out，The Netherlands in the middle of the 18th century must be richer than 100 years ago，But it is no longer a powerful country，Because neighboring France and Britain have more strength and wealth than it。France in 1914 is undoubtedly stronger than France in 1850，But compare with strong Germany，France is slightly inferior。Compared with the heyday (the middle of the Victorian era)，Britain now has much more wealth，The weapon power of its army is much greater。But these are meaningless，Because its product output has dropped from 25%of the global total output to about 3%。If a country is stronger than neighboring countries，Its life is better; if a country is weaker than neighboring countries，It will encounter trouble。

This argument for Kennedy，Some scholars think，Kennedy's horizontal comparison of the strength of the country's strength，and weakened the "natural decline" factor caused by the decline in the decline of the great power。Life and death of a country、The reincarnation reincarnation will also follow a certain natural law，This law except depends on the external pressure applied by other countries，It depends on the maintenance of its own strength。If a country can store the country's strength for a long time，then you can be evergreen in the four seasons; but if you let the defeated national governance，will inevitably embark on the road of decline。Kennedy, in "The rise and fall of the Great Power", of course, the Soviet Union may face a recession，But he never expected that the Soviet Union would collapse in just a few years。He thinks，Even if the Soviet Union declines，It will also end in the form of a arms race or the war of great powers。But in fact，The disintegration of the Soviet Union is the extermination of the great power that occurred under peaceful conditions。The institutional rigidity caused by a highly closed planned economy，It is still an economic crisis caused by excessive development of the arms industry and heavy industry，Or social turmoil caused by error Bet365 lotto review political trends，Both explanation，The fundamental factor of pushing this former prosperous country on despair is natural decline，The "decline in competition" caused by the competing force of the cold war is just a help factor。As Chinese international strategic researchers Huang Renwei said，"The Soviet Union was the vast number of states、A large country with rich resources，Itself has the potential advantage of the rise as the world's great powers。And its surroundings are not threatened by a strong country ... The failure of the Soviet Union lies in the internal cause，It has not been defeated by the World War，But was dragged down in institutional competition "。

Talk about this，Henry R. Nuo told reporters，Kennedy ignored the internal institutional factors，In addition to the advanced nature of the system itself，It also includes domestic political identity、Common values、Social cohesion, etc.。Kennedy is a realist，Mainly viewing world power from the perspective of struggle。In fact，The "power coin" side is the ability of the country to have weapons and wealth，On the other side is the ability of the country to motivate citizens and encourage them to use national power。Lack of second point，Can't be established in the first point。But，Kennedy's judgment on the dimension of international life ignored the other side of the coin。Henry R. Nuo Explanation，After 1970，The relative military strength of the Soviet Union and the United States has changed very little，But the difference is，Domestic political acceptance and citizens' support for government power have changed。After the "trouble of trouble" from the late 1960s to the 1970s，American citizens regain confidence in the domestic political and market systems in the early 1990s。and Soviet citizens' fantasies about their domestic system gradually disillusioned，Eventually rejected the right to use military self -defense for the Soviet government。From this point of view，The collapse of the Soviet domestic political identity is an important factor。

Academician of the National Academy of Britain、Professor Michael Braddick, a professor at the Department of History of Shefield University, explained to reporters，The political system needs to rely on "legitimacy" rather than "coercion forced" to raise government funds and mobilize political will。A regime that is simply relying on compulsory means is fragile，Is it easy to be emptied，It is easy to suddenly be on the verge of collapse。"Legality" needs to mobilize the public's wide support bet365 best casino games and participation of politics。History，The demise of the Ottoman Empire and the disintegration of the Soviet Union are largely due to this failure。

Bladik added，Kennedy's works have some very enlightened perspectives，Macro historical evidence in the development of the world can also prove the correctness of some of his remarks。But，Some viewpoints of this book need to be re -discussed。Economy and military play a very important role in determining the dominance of national power，But it is not the only factor that defines the strength of the great power。The dominant position of the United States in the 20th century and today, except for its economic and military strength，It also benefits from the relationship between the coinage tax and the US dollar、Core technology (this factor is getting more important)、National Strategy、Cultural influence、The degree of language of language in the world。Another，Soft factors such as national credibility should also be included。For example，The United States is facing questioning hypocrisy in today's international system、Unreliable problems，This is also a negative effect on the national power of the United States。So，Kennedy's point of view needs to be re -explained from a broad angle。