"Indian Economic Framework" faces multiple uncertainty
August 15, 2022 09:41 Source: "China Social Sciences", August 15, 2022, Issue 2470 author: This reporter Bai Le

July 26,"India -Pacific Economic Framework" (IPEF) Ministry of Economic and Trade's Ministry of Economic and Trade will be held online。Since the US Biden Government officially announced in May 2022, it has officially announced the launch of IPEF,This plan has been questioned by multiple parties。Scholars generally think,IPEF is the essence of the United States to try to integrate the Asia -Pacific region in the economic field,However, its clauses have significant exclusiveness,accused of "symbolic meaning is much greater than the real policy significance"。The negotiation is opaque、The details are unclear、Vague content, unknown, etc.,Trust the frame in the Asia -Pacific region directly decreases。"Return to Asia" and "Asia -Pacific Reinstances" from the Obama administration ",to the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" of the Trump administration,IPEF launched by the Biden government inherited the former "Political Heritage Site",Although the US policy in the Asia -Pacific region is constantly changing in terms of wording and expression,The essence and intention behind it has never changed。So,What is the background of IPEF? What are the "congenital defects" of this framework?,The reporter interviewed relevant scholars。

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International News website teller report called,Obama used the "Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement" (TPP) as part of the "Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement" (TPP)。But 5 years ago,The Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Asia Pacific、TPP Agreement signed by 12 countries in North America and South America,The agreement was previously criticized by the American protectionist political camp。With the exit of the United States,The rest of the member states continue to launch the "Comprehensive and Progressive Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement" (CPTPP),This agreement is also one of the world's largest multilateral trade agreements。Since then,The "tentacles" of the United States in the Asia -Pacific region have retracted。Now,The United States attempts to use IPEF to break its long -term absent situation in the region,I want to be under its dominant framework,Handling important economic and trade affairs related to the area,Control the economic flow of the area more。

US trade representative Dai Qi has publicly said,IPEF will show the "firm commitment" of the United States as a national partner in the region,to curb China's "growing influence" bet365 live casino games in the region。For this,Geipania Political Consultant Malaysia、Bunn Nagara, a honorary researcher at Perak State Research Institute, said in an interview with reporters,The main purpose of IPEF is to help the United States get more substantial interests in the Asia -Pacific region,and fight against China's rise。The rapid development of China in recent years has made the United States feel uneasy,and this exactly indicates that the unpopular and lack of confidence in the deep inside of the United States。"As the only superpower today、The largest economy in the world,The United States should have been committed to continuing to improve its domestic productivity and national competitiveness,Produced more high quality for the global market、Low -cost products,and return to the traditional American values ​​such as diligent work and honest life。The United States does not need to ‘reconnect’ or ‘return’ Asia,Because it has never moved its figure out of Asia。"Nagara said。

Dong Chunling, an associate researcher at the American Research Institute of the Chinese Institute of Modern International Relations, said in an interview with a reporter,IPEF launched by the United States has double meaning,On the one hand, it is to make up for the economic shortcomings of the previous government's "Indo -Pacific Strategy",The "Indo -Pacific Strategy" proposed by Trump has laid the basic framework for the United States to curb the suppression of China to some extent,But the investment in the economic field is obviously insufficient,Bayeng government's IPEF tried to make up for this。On the other hand,IPEF to suppress China is very obvious,Rather than called the trade agreement,It is better to regard it as a new tool for the geographical strategy of the United States。The United States has always hoped to be able to check and balance,Restricting China's geopolitical influence。In recent years,The United States curbs the suppression of China and continues to deepen,IPEF's meaning of hedging in China's "Belt and Road" is also very obvious。

Professor Marcos Cordeiro Pires, Professor,Since 2011,The United States re -adjusts strategy to China,Give up "contact strategy",Instead, "curb policy"。Current,IPEF proposed by the United States can be regarded as a replica TPP,It is intended to get out of China from the core value chain of the Asia -Pacific core。But,What must be pointed out is,Washington Elite's anxiety about China's development,It is rising to the level of danger。In recent years,The aggressiveness of the United States is increasing,The conspiracy Bet365 app download to destroy China's peaceful development is also increasing,This is due to its concerns about its rapidly narrowing technical gap between China and the United States to a certain extent。Recent,China SMIC has successfully produced a 7 -nanometer chip that spans two generations of technology,The news shocked international media。To relieve "strategic anxiety",The United States has taken a series of measures to intervene in geopolitical politics in the Asia -Pacific region,For example, incite Indian riots、Invasion of the South China Sea for the so -called "freedom of navigation" action、Affection for Chinese chips and semiconductor sales、pressure to third -party countries to oppose Huawei's promotion 5G technology。But,The strategy of isolated China in the United States often end in failure,Because China is the main trading partner of most countries in the Asia -Pacific region,and the United States cannot weaken these countries' dependence on the Chinese market。Compared with the United States and other Western countries,China provides more cooperation opportunities for countries in the region。

In Nagara's view,IPEF is still under development,Not yet formed,It is difficult to determine the full picture of its future。But now looking at,IPEF's political meaning is more than economic content。Although the name of the iPef contains the word "economy",But the lack of substantial economic terms。Prester also expressed similar views。He pointed out,IPEF lacks economic goals,More geopolitical goals,This is its main defect。The logic of market operation is to pursue higher efficiency、lower cost and higher productivity,This is the general trend of globalization。But,American protectionism、Geopolital Attempt and hegemony goal is destroying this logic。Driver of the mentality of hegemony,The United States is always trying to provide the so -called "solution" to other countries and regions,However, in essence, only the United States can benefit from it。As early as the 1990s,The United States has proposed the establishment of the "American Free Trade Zone",However, due to the lack of corresponding economic open proposals,The establishment of the trading area has always stayed at the framework and the imagination level。This idea has experienced a long decade after negotiation,Due to repeated obstruction and eventually disillusionment。

  "Lack of US market access" was questioned

Some analysts say,IPEF protocol lacks "bones and flesh",It is the main disadvantage of "channels for entering the US market" and a plan to reduce tariffs。The United States eagerly wants member states bet365 live casino games to accept and abide by its rigorous workers、Environment、Technology、Intellectual property regulations,3813_3831。

According to the British "Financial Times" report,The United States began to negotiate with the Asia -Pacific countries at the end of 2021。But the Biden team has been difficult to persuade Southeast Asian countries and India to join IPEF from the beginning。Some people familiar with relevant discussions said,Some countries are unwilling to join,It is because they think that adding IPEF is not much value。Since the framework does not include the opportunity to allow other member states to enter the US market,its attractiveness is greatly reduced。

Dong Chunling told reporters,Although the United States is generally a country with a lower tariff,But in agriculture、Textiles and clothing, such as Southeast Asia and India, areas with comparative advantages in Southeast Asia and India have strict trade protection measures,The political power behind the US interest group behind it is quite powerful,Many measures have special parliamentary legislation protection,It is difficult for other countries to enter the US market through the IPEF protocol。

According to the White House statement,IPEF includes four pillar areas: fairness and elastic trade,Supply Chain Elasticity,Infrastructure and clean energy,Tax reform and anti -corruption。Countries only need to join one of the pillars and participate in the discussion,can become the initial member country。,The United States announced,In addition to the existing member states,This framework will continue to be open to new participants。International Trade Expert Bryan Mercurio (Bryan Mercurio) once pointed out,If you carefully analyze the four major pillars of the IPEF, you will be discovered,It actually requires partners to change their original laws and regulations or operation methods。Asian partners really want trade,They want the US market access,and IPEF's trade terms lacks effective mechanisms。

The first phase of the US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) discussed on IPEF discussions,IPEF seems to provide a "soft law" framework with great flexibility,But only allow member states to reach the same rules with the few rules with individual fields。The real purpose of this "soft law" framework is to enhance the influence of the United States in the region,in order to provide a seemingly legal excuse for the intervention measures it takes。

  far from RCEP's results is far from the effect

IPEF member states include 7 ASEAN member states,This has a lot of overlapping with RCEP member states。Some key areas proposed by IPEF,Including labor bet365 best casino games standards、Green Energy and Supply Chain, etc.,Also overlapped with RCEP。Therefore,About the comparison of the two to become a topic of enthusiastic about the international relations of the international relations。

Many analysis articles point out,Even the country that has been determined to participate in the IPEF negotiation,It is impossible to determine whether it will be signed in the end,Especially the ASEAN countries are not enthusiastic about this framework。"Financial Times" posted a post,"Under the background of large trade agreements such as RCEP in China and related countries,IPEF looks powerless。It makes Asian countries think,Why do you want to participate in it "。

Pires talks,RCEP, which is also an Economic Agreement in the Asia -Pacific region, has gradually become the dividends since the effectiveness.,brought real economic benefits to ASEAN and other Asia -Pacific countries。RCEP realized its initial promise,significantly improved the degree of trade facilitation,Help member states further integrate into the Asia -Pacific supply chain。With the rules of RCEP, further strengthening,The increase in trade flow will be the general trend。RCEP will create new opportunities for all participants,Consolidating the status of the Asia -Pacific region as the world economic center,help Asia to overcome the wounds caused by Western imperialism to the region in the past 200 years。But,IPEF proposed by the United States not only does not build a new economic paradigm,Instead, it has created obstacles for the improvement of the status of member states in the Asia -Pacific development process。

Nagara said,Under the situation where the ASEAN countries are more cautious about IPEF,RCEP obviously has an IPEF indispensable advantage。RCEP is the promotion of Asian development proposed by ASEAN、A serious regional economic agreement that realizes mutual benefit and win -win results,Not targeting any country,It is not just a political tool for benefiting one country。The terms and conditions on the qualifications of RCEP are very clear,Involved in trade、Investment、Tariffs and market access。But,In ipf,These key contents are blurred。"ASEAN countries hope to know what shared benefits can IPEF bring to it,How to get these interests。But,They have not seen the benefits that they can get from it,Therefore, except for some polite diplomatic reviews,I don't have much interest in ipf。If this framework just wants to win the support of the United States for countries,or the signing of the relevant agreement needs to pay too high,For example, bet365 Play online games requiring countries to stop or reduce trade with China,I believe many countries will choose to refuse or exit。If the United States really wants to fight for external support for IPEF,More effort must be made,Let the iPef provide more opportunities and advantages for member states。At the same time,IPEF should also reduce politics,It should not be used as a tool that restricts the development of China or any other country。”

"Like Malaysia and other countries in ASEAN,Welcome to more international cooperation、Trade and investment。If you add any organization, you can benefit from it,Malaysia will be positive for this。But if you join, it will bring risks or cost high,Malaysia will give up。So far,Malaysia and other ASEAN countries are still waiting for more information about IPEF,As its purpose、Member requirements and the risks and expenses involved。"Nagara Supplement Road。

  Domestic political contradictions add uncertainty

In the background of IPEF facing many external obstacles,The current political and economic status of the United States is full of variables adding many unknown numbers。The results of the midterm election are unpredictable、Powerence of populism、The people have a lot of grievances、Factors such as weak economic decline,It means that IPEF will face huge uncertainty。Some scholars point out,IPEF's proposal,It is the result of the incredible contradiction in China to the international transfer to the international level。

Nagara said,"Before IPEF concept,Biden also proposed the so -called "Rebuilding Beautiful Future" program that helps the world economy from the new crown pneumonia epidemic。But,No one determines what requirements of the plan,What impact will it affect member states。It goes to the end before it can further develop,can be described as a flash of flowers。and now IPEF was born again,Similarly,What does unknown know what IPEF can do? "。"It is still difficult for us to describe IPEF,Because the United States itself does not know how the framework should be established。The Bayeng government still seems to be exploring,This is to a certain extent to indicate to Congress and the US public,He is taking action,instead of slacking government affairs。"Nagara said。

Prez said,Long -term look,IPEF is destined to end with failure,On the one hand,The domestic protective trend of protectionism in the United States will continue to prevent the framework member of the framework from entering the US market。On the other hand,The U.S. Democratic Party and the Republican Party have always been difficult to reach a consensus on the issue of "providing Bet365 lotto review funds for overseas plans"。Biden's previous "Rebuilding a Better Future" plan died,To a certain extent, it is also due to the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement on overseas project resources,Destruction of the relevant bills,IPEF also faces such problems。

Prester supplement said,Inside the American society is surrounding the huge infrastructure of the United States、​​There is also huge differences in the development of low -carbon economy and eliminating social inequality。Between maintaining global hegemony and solving domestic contradictions that may trigger civil war,The United States needs to make a weighing balance。

Nagara summarized to,Any country if you only want to get international support from other countries,But unwilling to give the other party sufficient return,It will be destined to be difficult to succeed。Under the increasingly competitive international environment,Each country has more options。Today's world economy has become an organic unity、The overall connected,The interruption or damage of any part of the part will cause adverse effects on all parts and the entire system。Always,Asian countries long for regional peace and prosperity,They want to cooperate with all other countries,instead of passively involved in any new Cold War。

Editor in charge: Cui Cen
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