Establish a mathematical model and perform data analysis based on this，It is a research method currently widely used in the fields of scientific research。Questions about how to weigh the complexity and accuracy of the model，University of Birmingham University Geography、Deputy Professor of the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Arnald Puy and the University of Bergen's University of Science and Humanities and Humanities Center, Andrea Saltelli，Recently published a discussion article entitled "Models with higher effective dimensions to produce more uncertain estimates" in the American journal "Scientific Progress"。This article is proposed，Too much pursuit of improving model complexity may make Bet365 app download the model output more inaccurate results，Then it limits its role in helping policy decision -making。

 

Pu Yi told reporters，Turn the model of the model as a means to obtain more accurate data，Not only may not achieve the target，It may also make the estimate more vague。In the past few decades，In order to keep synchronization with new scientific discoveries，About hydrological process、Climate change、Mathematical models of problems such as epidemic dissemination become more and more complicated。Based on such a hypothesis: adding details will make these models better reflect the potential mechanism of the process involved，So as to guide more accurate estimates or predictions。but，It is very difficult to explore new parameters or mechanisms in a way that is clear to no measurement error，Following it is often new uncertainty。other，More than one mathematical method can be used to refer to the change process of new discovery，For the bet365 live casino games same mechanism，It can be formally described in the mathematical sense in the mathematical sense with several different but also established alternatives。

 

Pu Yi said，The show of their research results，More complex models are prone to produce more uncertain estimates，This is because they usually have higher effective dimensions。This means that there are more parameters that bring uncertainty to the model output，and more active high -level effects。So，He suggests，When researchers expand a model to contain more details，It is necessary to consider the uncertainty brought by the new parameter or mechanism。These new uncertainties are superimposed on the existing uncertainty，This produces a very complicated、​​Model with greater uncertainty。

 

Sal Terry talked to reporters，From the perspective of helping policy decision -making，If a model helps society to better understand a problem and choose a suitable action route to cope with this challenge，bet365 best casino games So this model is effective。Models can send reminders on the expected impact and consequences of epidemic disease，Can evaluate whether a certain resource will be exhausted in the foreseeable future，It can also be used to explore the advantages and disadvantages of some emerging technology。Considering the size and complexity of the model is to ensure its accuracy (real prediction) and accuracy (small error)。When the model is extremely large and complicated，Its prediction will have strong uncertainty，Although this change is generally difficult to detect for the onlookers。From the opinion of Sal Teli，When mathematics and researchers are too ambitious for ambitions，It will constitute a dangerous combination: the modeling person is eager to create a more detailed model，But this requires them to make their own uncertain choice。Final，Uncertainty accumulates，Make a seemingly objective and accurate huge model Bet365 app download unsatisfactory in prediction。People other than modelers usually do not know how to conclude how it is obtained，What are the uncertain factors，What alternative conclusions can also be drawn。If the model does not have a good prediction ability，And social members and their representatives choose to trust the model，and make decisions with the model as the reference and basis，Naturally, there will be unsatisfactory results。

 

Pu Yi said，Uncertainty is difficult to be completely eliminated，Brave admitting polysexual、The existence of fuzzy and unknown situation helps to improve the knowledge production process。Otherwise，The knowledge created by scientific research may not only be untenable，It may also provide a narrow vision when people try to understand the complex challenges of the future。Sal Terley emphasized，Respect for science and its achievements，does not mean that any output in the scientific community is free to release。bet365 Play online games Whether researchers or ordinary people，You should adhere to a more cautious attitude。The establishment and analysis of the model requires strict review，Voice inside the scientific community and the public opinion involved in the policy related to the model needs to be heard。