Autumn and Winter 2022，Energy crisis caused by geopolitical conflicts in Europe is increasing; plus inflation、Price rise，Protesting and strikes of European countries take this one after another。A large number of scholars in various countries have explored the direction and potential consequences of the energy crisis in 2023。It is worth noting that，This energy crisis may not only give birth to global energy territories and changes in the energy industry of various countries，It may also affect climate action，and will affect the world economy for a long time。This also indicates，Global scientific researchers should include the energy crisis in the topic list of key tracking research in 2023，and provide a scientific basis for policy formulation。

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December 2022，Dean of the School of Public Policy, University of Elford University in Germany、Professor Andreas Goldthau and senior researcher at the Brucer Research Institute of Belgian think tank、Researcher Simo Tagliapietra (Simone Tagliapietra)，Published an article on the website of "Nature" magazine "Energy Crisis: 5 questions that must be answered in 2023"。They think，With Russia and Europe continued to confront energy in energy affairs，New energy partnership is being formed，EU began to add other natural gas production countries (such as Norwegian、Algeria、The United States) and the import quantity of the LPG producer (Africa and the Middle East)。October 2021 to October 2022，The EU's crude oil imported from Russia decreased from 7 million tons to 5 million tons，EU and Britain's natural gas imported from Russia decreased from 11.2 billion cubic meters to 2.3 billion cubic meters。

Facing energy supply tight，Europe may improve energy efficiency，Turn to green alternative energy，Transfer the energy dense industry to other countries，This will make Europe's natural gas consumption decline。East Asian countries are ready to reduce dependence on expensive liquefaction natural gas; and the United States is developing domestic renewable energy and fossil fuel energy，The effect of responding to energy conflict and volatility of energy price。

Due to the unstable supply of natural gas and oil，Other energy solutions are particularly valued，Especially green hydrogen energy。Green hydrogen energy refers to the hydrogen prepared by electric electrolytes transformed by renewable energy，Because the carbon emissions from production to consumption is almost zero, it is called "green hydrogen"。August 2022，Canada and Germany signed a joint intention of establishing the Gede's "hydrogen energy alliance"; the alliance aims to establish a cross -Atlantic hydrogen energy supply corridor，By 2025, Canada exports to Germany to clean hydrogen energy。

The EU is taking it with Algeria、Nigeria、The focus of energy trade between African countries such as Namibia and other African countries transfer to green hydrogen energy and power diversified conversion technology。Poor conversion of electricity bet365 Play online games refers to the transformation of renewable energy (such as wind and solar energy) to hydrogen energy，The green methanol that can be transformed into a higher energy efficiency and more easy to store and transportation in the unit。

The report released by the British Economist Think Tank "2023 Energy Outlook: Surong the Energy Crisis" is called，Due to the slowdown of global economic growth、High energy prices，Economist think tank industry analysis covers the total energy consumption in 2023, which is expected to increase by only 1.3%，World Energy Consumption will grow weak for the second consecutive year。European natural gas consumption is expected to continue to decline，Maintenance of North America is stable; Asian demand rises，By 2027, it may surpass North America to become the world's largest natural gas market。Energy supply may also decrease。Russian oil and natural gas exports are expected to be further reduced，Members of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 10 other major oil -producing countries (both collectively referred to as "OPEC+") may reduce production capacity to prevent too much oil price。

　　Energy industry tends to reconstruct

　　Analysis of Goldham and Tarah Pieterra，High energy prices and tight supply may trigger industrial reorganization，and this industrial reorganization includes changes in the production process and location。This process will be long -term，But the industrial structure adjustment has been a few years in advance of the decarburizer，The effect has been appeared。Some energy dense industries (such as aluminum、Fertilizer and other chemicals) Beginning to the United States、Middle East and other energy prices with lower energy prices，Other industries are innovating。For example，European steel manufacturers began to invest in green hydrogen energy，and cooperate with the energy company to build a large -scale wind energy hydrogen -making facility。"Green Iron and Steel" used with renewable energy forging、"Green Aluminum" produced by low -carbon methods，Began to be applied to the production of automotive chassis and tires by automobile manufacturers。

Look at it for a long time，Iron、Aluminum、Electricity multi -conversion technology facilities will be more and more located in the sun、Wind、Hydropower、Areas with abundant biofuels，North Africa、Western Australia、North Sea coast、Some areas of the Middle East may become a new economic engine，Elderly manufacturers close to the terminal of natural gas transportation pipelines or coal mines may lose their competitive advantage。In a developed country，De -industrialization is considered a huge threat due to impact employment and economic growth，This may exacerbate the social tension and affect the decarburization process。

Goldhao ​​and Talia Pieterra called on researchers to contribute wisdom to the new business model，To help the heavy industry quickly adjust when there is still competitiveness in competitiveness，These models need to be able to quickly update with the changes of the situation and practice.。For example，Petrochemical smelting factory if you want to obtain long -term development，It is necessary to use bet365 live casino games low -carbon liquid fuel for commercial production as soon as possible。People have not clarified the supply chain of green technology in the future，The production and transportation cost of green energy needs to be calculated。

Final，The speed and form of industrial green transformation will depend on how countries organize production、Labor and state intervention (such as government subsidies)。United States、UK and other free market countries may get out of the era of fossil fuels through fundamental innovation，But how do they deal with coal、Iron、Chemical industry and other traditional industries? Germany、France and other communityist economies are good at promoting gradual industrial changes through cooperation with public institutions and union organizations，But the old industry may become a burden，Does maintaining its survival slowly delay economic growth? Researchers should help the government judge which industries are worthy of subsidies，Which industrial prospects are dim，How to motivate energy transformation。

　　Energy Transformation Facing Node

Goldhao ​​and Talia Pieterra believes，Whether the world can quickly embark on green energy road is a key question in 2023。Whether the investment of natural gas infrastructure turns to coal or renewable energy，Deeply affect the carbon budget。Carbon budget refers to under the premise of having the opportunity to avoid the hazards of climate change，Carbon dioxide volume that can still be emitted in the world。

The rise in the price of oil and natural gas may promote the installation of solar panels for families and enterprises、Solar heat pump to reduce energy expenditure，Many Europeans have done this in 2022。The EU accelerated at the end of 2022, which accelerated the award of the permit of sustainable energy project，Simplified rules and regulations for building renovation to improve energy utilization efficiency。The United States passed the "Inflation Act Act" in August 2022，The content includes investment 369 billion US dollars to reduce domestic carbon emissions、Promote the production of domestic clean energy technology。Scientific researchers need to observe whether these policies can be transformed in economic and political adversity.。

"Energy Outlook of 2023" report prediction，As the policy is increasingly focused on energy security，2023 Coal consumption may rise for the third consecutive year，Although the rise is not large。Drought、heat waves、Hurricane and other extreme weather events will cause greater pressure to the energy system。Drought severe interference hydropower，and hydropower is an important way for low -carbon power production，60%of Brazilian power production comes from hydropower。The heat wave will push high power demand，Affecting the productivity of the power plant，Hurricane will destroy energy infrastructure。Considering the frequency of extreme weather events predicted by meteorologists will rise，The global short -term power crisis in 2023 may increase，Some countries may have to use fossil fuels to deal with crisis。

Goldhao ​​and Talia Pieterra Reminder，countries with key metal and mineral reserves are also worthy of attention，They may not be able to "take the fishing profit"。Resource competition may cause Bet365 app download conflict，Foreign currency exports may inhibit domestic economic growth。Scientific researchers need to evaluate the impact of green miningism on the economy and society of middle -income and low -income countries。miningism refers to the export as the main purpose，Natural resources with a large number of unscrusnted or limited machining (mineral、Petroleum、cultivated land、Forestry、Fishery resources, etc.)。Green miningism is like the "greening" of miningism: developed countries in the name of climate change，Densely mining resources in underdeveloped areas、Destrey the right of local carbon emissions，to increase your capital accumulation。

other，It should also pay close attention to the trend of the gap between the low -carbon leader and the latter。2021，Only 8%of global clean energy investment flows to developing countries and emerging economies (except China)。If investors bypass the energy system dominated by coal，Many middle -income and low -income countries will continue to fall behind in the process of industrialization。Developed countries have not fully reached a commitment to the UN Green Climate Fund，The international community should provide more economic support for developing countries in developing countries。For example，Putting the income obtained by carbon taxes through carbon taxes in a climate fund pool，According to the climate commitment of various countries，Funds are allocated to middle -income and low -income countries。

Goldhao ​​and Talia Pieterra emphasized，Final，The essence of low -carbon transformation is a political choice -regarding it as a need to develop a bank、Financial institutions、Government of developed countries and developing countries joined forces to deal with global common challenges，Still a winner、Loser、The consequences of winning or losing (including the deterioration of the prospects of the country that failed to attract clean capital)? This，Scientific researchers need to provide evidence to decision makers。

　　Beware of the energy crisis to drag the economy

From the opinion of Goldhao ​​and Tariap Pietera，2023，The trend of de -globalization and economic nationalism will be clearer。Some economists think，"Backshore" will make the market fragmentation，Slow slowly global energy transformation。"Backshore" relative to offshore，Refers to transferring production activities from overseas back to China，Especially manufacturing。Scientific researchers should also pay attention to the direction of global labor division of labor。Global labor division of labor drives the development of clean energy technology，A significant reduction in the cost of solar panels，This is American Innovation、Chinese manufacturing investment、Common result of European subsidies。If countries only start from competition，Personal circulation or is broken。

In recent years，European countries have made financial intervention that far exceeds the degree of crisis management of the energy market。Since the global energy price rises in September 2021，EU and British governments provide more than 700 billion euros for energy subsidies provided by families and enterprises，Some energy companies in Germany and France are nationalized。Bet365 lotto review April 2022，EU Energy Platform Establishment，The purpose is to use the existing coordination mechanism to ensure the EU energy supply，Platform currently focuses on the demand aggregation and joint procurement of the demand for the application of natural gas reserve in the winter of 2023-2024。Scientific researchers need to observe，Is these temporary individuals or long -term re -direction; compared to top -down government planning，Is the open global market more powerful driving the effective allocation of scarce resources。

Energy crisis is deepening the inequality between the country and within one country。Low -income countries and low -income families have the biggest hit by the sharp rise in energy prices，Medium -to -high -income countries are not spared to difficulty，UK、Germany、France、Czech Republic、Austria、Italy broke out of protest energy prices soaring、People with rising living costs。Energy crisis may still overflow as a financial or debt crisis。A fragile economy may have industrial contraction，and the government's support for the difficulty in the difficulty of the industry may increase the overdue financial resources and foreign exchange reserves，The possibility of increasing financial risk rating。Scientific researchers must evaluate the energy crisis to the loan policy、Development policy、The influence of multilateral assistance，Reveal energy poverty、Energy price shock、The threat of inflation caused by energy conflict on social cohesion and political stability。

　　Energy crisis may endanger climate action

Goldhao ​​and Talia Pieterra said，Western developed countries' response to the energy crisis ordered middle and low -income countries。The gap in Russian export energy with coal is began to fill the Russian export energy with coal，But calling on poor countries to do their best to decarbarize，It can not help but look hypocritical。With the budget loss，Developed countries will further lag behind their climate financing goals。Divide countries into the global climate action of different countries into different trading groups.，may cause tension between the relationship between wealthy countries and poor countries。

"Energy Outlook 2023" report pointed out，Developing countries may face climate financing difficulties。Unstable economic and geopolitical environment、Extreme weather incidents frequently，It may cause public opinion in Europe and the United States，It is believed that the climate adaptation fund should first meet domestic needs rather than assist other countries。This will make it difficult for developing countries to obtain meaningful energy transformation funds commitment from developed countries，Slow speed of getting rid of high carbon energy，Energy transformation gap between developing countries and developed countries expands。

Goldhao ​​and Talia Pieterra said，Political Science、Economics and other social science scholars need to identify which bilateral、Multilateral and regional mechanisms are most suitable for promoting the promise of the Paris Agreement.、Ability construction、Ability construction，and re -examine the carbon border adjustment measures。Carbon border regulation refers to a country or region that strictly implements the carbon emission reduction policy，High -carbon products required to pay or refund bet365 Play online games the corresponding taxes or carbon quotas。

The 27th UN Climate Change Conference held in November 2022 Agree to set up a fund mechanism，Compensation and damage caused by the disaster caused by the climate。The design of the fund needs to be studied，What form is taken，What kind of activity supports，What method does a wealthy country、Under what conditions to invest in。If these problems are not handled properly，The tension between countries will increase，Cover climate conversation，Human beings will have a small climate and action time will be further lost。

　The fossil fuel industry shall bear greater responsibility

January 2023，The journal "Environmental Research Communication" published by the British Physical Society Press published a professor at the Geographical System of Oxford University in the United Kingdom、The Director of the Proposal of Targeta of Oxford University Melis Allen and the PhD student Stuart Jenkins, the Department of Physics, "The Producer of the Fossil Fuel Industry"。Article Title，Energy policy is now facing triple challenges: enhances toughness，Ensure that the supply of fossils and non -stone energy supply is safe; minimize the impact on consumer energy prices; as consistent with the climate target stipulated in the Paris Agreement。

but but，Energy prices and high profits of energy producers are also an opportunity: Applying the producer responsibility system to the fossil fuel industry，It is expected to resolve the conflict between energy security and climate policy with affordable costs。Producer's responsibility extension refers to extending the resource and environmental responsibilities that the producer assumes its products from production to product design、Circulation Consumption、Recycling、Waste disposal and other full life cycles。This concept was first proposed by Thomas Lindhqvist, a senior lecturer at the Rongde University of Sweden.。

Allen and others said，In a short time，United States、If the British and European countries want to increase domestic fossil fuel production、Reinforcement to Russia's export natural gas from Qatar and Australia and other countries is imported from countries such as Qatar and Australia，It should be cooperated with bold new policies to avoid the use of fossil fuel further leading to global warming。Large -scale model analysis indicates，Compared with traditional ways such as carbon fixed price，Extension system and carbon dioxide geological storage of producer responsibility、Combination of natural solutions，Can achieve net zero at a similar or lower cost。This also means，The main beneficiary of the high price of fossil fuel -the fossil fuel industry itself，It will play a role in dealing with climate challenges，and reduce the risk of asset stranding。

Net zero refers to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to near zero as much as possible，Any remaining emissions can be re -absorbed from the atmosphere，For example, re -absorbed by the ocean and forests。Nature -based solutions refer to the use of ecosystems and services provided to cope with climate change、Social challenges such as food security or natural disasters; natural solutions can usually be used with other types of protection measures。Strand assets refers to bet365 best casino games accidents or premature records for accidents、Declars or transformed assets that are damaged and transformed into liabilities。In the late 1980s，Climate and sustainable problems Researchers start to realize，Environmental policies and rules and regulations may have a negative impact on the value or profitability of fossil fuel companies，Starting from the 21st century。Starting from the 21st century，This influence spread further。

Allen and others pointed out，Producer's responsibility extension system and traditional climate policy designed to reduce the demand for fossil fuel，instead of replacing traditional policies，The best effect。It is important to transform to non -chemical energy energy，But it will not make the world completely out of fossil fuel。The goal of the producer responsibility extension system is to target the supply level，Before the complete completion of the energy transformation of non -chemical stone，Reduce the catastrophic consequences of continuing to use fossil fuel。"By combining the producer responsibility extension system with other climate solutions，We can take meaningful climate action while protecting energy safety，This is extremely important at present -many countries have clearly raised the priority of energy security to above the climate action。"Jenkens said。

Goldhao ​​and Talia Pieterra concluded，Energy crisis is both a challenge or an opportunity，At the beginning of the new year，Scientific researchers should be committed to giving reference answers to protect the green transformation of energy。