■bet365 promo codes Interviewee/Photo provided

　　　　，bet365 promo codes collect and analyze data to reveal the patterns and laws behind social phenomena，And propose solutions to social problems。Because of this，Causal inference，That is, find out the relationship between the input conditions (causes) and output actions (results) of the model，Occupying the mainstream in social science research。Since the outbreak of COVID-19，Scholars from various countries have expressed their speculations on the "new normal" of the world after the epidemic，Experts who study human behavior and human society are beginning to publish insights into the epidemic and its social impact in journals，And propose governance countermeasures。Soon，These prospects have triggered the academic community’s concept of “prediction” in the field of social sciences、Discussion of application and value。Can social science accurately predict social changes？What problems does the quality of prediction results reveal in social science experiments？How to improve the accuracy of social science predictions through interdisciplinary collaboration？Revolving around the above issues，Our reporter interviewed Igor Grossmann, associate professor of the Department of Psychology at the University of Waterloo in Canada。

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Current，The world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century，Growing global uncertainty。bet365 promo codes’s accurate prediction of future change trends，Will improve people’s quality of life，Promote national development。In interview，Grossman listed the macro effects of accurate predictions from the following aspects。On a social level，Accurate predictions from bet365 promo codes can facilitate policy making、Preventing public health risks and responding to disasters，Enhance society’s ability to withstand disasters，Speed ​​up recovery。Highly accurate predictions can also foster public trust in bet365 promo codes，Help them make informed decisions about their personal actions or choices，Thereby enhancing the well-being of individuals and communities。From a financial perspective，Accurate predictions can guide resource allocation，Minimize wasteful spending，And stimulate economic growth。For example，Accurately predicting changes in the job market enables targeted education investments，Provide necessary skills training for the future workforce，Achieve economic prosperity。In addition，Improving prediction accuracy in areas such as public health can also help improve prevention、Effectiveness in monitoring and controlling disease outbreaks，Saving huge amounts of money for the country。

To test the ability and accuracy of bet365 promo codes to predict social changes，Grossman and his team formed the "Forecasting Collaborative"，Conducted the largest forecasting campaign ever。From behavioral science、Researchers in the fields of social science and data science participated in two “prediction competitions”。Their life satisfaction、Social media sentiment、Gender-occupational and racial bias、Ideological preference、12 common social science research fields such as subjective well-being predict the future development trend of American society。In the first competition，86 teams predicted their values ​​for the next 12 months (May 2020-April 2021) based on 39 months of historical data (January 2017-March 2020)。6 months later，120 teams conducted the second round of predictions based on a total of 45 months of updated historical data (January 2017-September 2020)。

Discovered by Grossman et al.，bet365 promo codes are poor at predicting real-world trends during the epidemic。Contest results display，In most areas，bet365 promo codes’ predictions of social change are either as accurate as those of non-expert groups，Or worse。At the same time，bet365 promo codes’ predictions are often worse than those produced by simple statistical models。Grossman told reporters，There are many reasons why bet365 promo codes do poorly in forecasting，For example, lack of training of computational models，Ignore time series data，Confusion analysis levels，etc.。In addition，Some researchers habitually use deeply personal preference、“Pet theory” with only one or two key factors，Ignore that the real world is determined by the interaction of multiple factors。Other people only provide specific judgments and explanations on the specific magnitude of changes，Lack of “risk” prediction capabilities beyond narrative explanation。Again，Experts are overly obsessed with laboratory experiments，That is, creating experimental conditions in a controlled environment，To separate specific variables，Accurately measure and observe the impact of specific factors on results。Considering that controlled environments do not accurately reflect the complexity and dynamics of the real world，Grossman recommends that researchers pay attention to experimental methods with higher ecological validity。In fields such as psychology and social sciences，Ecological validity refers to the extent to which research results can be generalized and applied to real-life situations。

Grossman pointed out，The current performance of bet365 promo codes in forecasting，There is a big gap compared with their authoritative interpretations of different social phenomena。But，It should not be concluded that prediction is meaningless in the social sciences。Meanwhile，The scientific community should be more rigorous、Work harder to measure and understand the ability and limitations of the social sciences to predict the future。Grossman proposes three suggestions for improving the accuracy of predictions by bet365 promo codes based on the results of the Forecast Collaboration competition。First，Let experts who specialize in a certain field predict the development trend of that field，To obtain more accurate predictions。For example，If someone is an expert on depression，He/she should be better at predicting social trends in depression。Second，Research teams that carry out multidisciplinary cooperation have better prediction results than single-disciplinary teams。In terms of experimental operations，Those groups using simpler models and historical forecast data，Their predictions tend to be better than those of groups that do not use such models or data。Third，bet365 promo codes can also develop reliable data sources and extend the forecast time span，Further improve the accuracy of social prediction。

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　　■The world urgently needs a large-scale scientific team，As well as bringing together people from different fields、Experts and scholars in different branches，Carry out cross-disciplinary research from a broad perspective，Solving the problem of prediction accuracy in bet365 promo codes sciences。Image source: CFP

Grossman talks，Social science has certain limitations in predicting upcoming trends or events in the real world。Part of the reason is，The emergence of social phenomena is not due to certain properties that play a decisive role。Opposite，They follow a random process，Its complexity goes beyond the few parameters usually considered by bet365 promo codes and policymakers。so far，There are only a few researchers who agree with this view。Some bet365 promo codes、Policymakers and the public generally believe，Just find the right theory or predictor，All social problems are theoretically predictable。Technically，The series of causal models that bet365 promo codes are accustomed to using may not be accurate enough，Unable to provide prediction results with practical use。For example，The model can only predict the direction of the trend，Cannot specify its magnitude。Only by recognizing these limiting factors，bet365 promo codes can better plan solutions when faced with evolving social problems，And take appropriate precautions。

On the one hand，Social sciences still have a lot of room for improvement in predicting social changes。On the other hand，Some scholars start from the definition of prediction，Discussed the role of prediction in improving theoretical experiments in social sciences。Mark Verhagen, a postdoctoral researcher at the School of Population Sciences, University of Oxford, UK, pointed out in the article "A Pragmatist's Guide to Using Forecasts in the Social Sciences"，Academic circles seem to believe that the explanatory and predictive nature of social science are incompatible with each other。This view leads researchers to have to choose between two methods，And formulate different data processing according to the choice、Model construction and post-prediction diagnosis process。This means，In specific experiments，bet365 promo codes tend to use the explanatory power of social science。Discovered by Verhagen，From 2010 to 2021，Published in all six famous economic journals、In papers in political and social science journals，Only 5% of abstracts mentioned the verb and noun forms of “prediction”。Among the articles mentioning these two words，Only 13% of articles predict the outcome variable。

Verhagen advocates that bet365 promo codes organically combine the two analytical perspectives of "explanation" and "prediction"。There are three major advantages to integrating prediction into the empirical workflow of bet365 promo codes。First，As a benchmark tool，Forecasting can standardize the comparison of different types of models。Comparing the predictive capabilities of different models，Researchers can evaluate the suitability and complexity of models from different paradigms，Find the optimal model complexity level，Enable the model to accurately fit the data。Secondly，As a descriptive tool，Predictions will help researchers gain insights into model fit。Verhagen said，It is very important to establish a conceptual system around the accuracy of predictions。If the model’s predictive power is significantly lower than expected，Researchers need to reflect，Have they ignored important determinants in the model？Does the functional form preferred by researchers capture the mechanism of action？This type of reflection helps researchers further fine-tune the model，Driving project progress while improving forecasting。Finally，Predictions help researchers understand the behavior of complex models。By intervening on variables，Observe its impact on the prediction results，Researchers can more accurately grasp the coefficient estimates in the model、The role and impact of each variable in the model，Thereby enhancing the interpretability of the model。

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In addition to discussing the nature of bet365 promo codes predictions and methods to improve accuracy，Some scholars are already taking action to increase the academic community’s attention to and participation in prediction。Stefano DellaVigna, a professor at the School of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, led the team to develop the "bet365 promo codes Forecasting Platform"。As a free online tool，The platform aims to systematically collect and evaluate a range of peer-provided information、Outcome predictions for untested social programs。Delavinha expressed，Collecting peer prediction data of an experiment on a large scale can help researchers develop policies and projects that are more in line with the current situation of society。For example，A bet365 promo codes research team prepares to implement a series of interventions，To improve the quality of education in some rural areas of Kenya。Researchers have planned a total of 5 implementable solutions，But there are only funds available for the operation of 3 plans。If there is no reliable historical data，Researchers have to take great risks to make choices。With a public platform like "bet365 promo codes Forecasting Platform"，Researchers can compare their own predictions of the effectiveness of different programs with those of their peers，Thus improving the accuracy of predictions。Delavinha expressed，Knowing the predictions of peers on experimental plans is as good as obtaining feedback from preliminary experiments。This is of great help to researchers in improving the design of experiments。According to this，The experimental plan the researchers finally selected also had a smaller error，Make better decisions。

Grossman told reporters，Many scholars have realized that，To better grasp complex bet365 promo codes phenomena，Everyone in the team needs to abandon a single "pet theory"，Challenging the limitations of a single bet365 promo codes and cultural environment。The world urgently needs a large-scale scientific team，As well as bringing together people from different fields、Experts and scholars in different branches，To enhance understanding of major scientific issues。From a broad perspective，There are many benefits to conducting cross-disciplinary research，For example, developing comprehensive research methods，Provide more comprehensive、Solutions to real-life problems from multiple perspectives，Reduce repeated experiments and waste of resources，Improve the efficiency and quality of scientific research。In this context，Universities and scientific research institutions should adopt a multi-pronged approach，Cultivating a culture of interdisciplinary research，To improve the influence of the discipline，Promote academic progress。