"Outline of the Implementation of the Construction of Social Construction (2020-2025)" pointed out，The rule of law society is the foundation for building a country in rule of law，The social construction of the rule of law is an important part of the modernization of the national governance system and governance capabilities。In the acceleration of the construction of the society of rule of law，The law is certain、Generalality、Troubleshooting and other features，Getting on the guidance、Forecast、Evaluation and other functions，Provide relatively stable standardized expectations and behavior expectations。Chinese and foreign theory and practical circles about legal certainty and predictive functions can be described as sweaty cows，Reached more overlapping consensus。But the judge's prediction and judgment of the results of the case (hereinafter referred to as the "prediction") of the case (hereinafter referred to as the "prediction")，But less in -depth discussion。It is undeniable，Highly complex society in today's functional differentiation，The judicial decision -making system is in the core area of ​​the entire legal system，Uncertainty and systemic decision -making risks in the society of rule of law。Judge's pre -judgment determination can cross intricate judicial decisions，To a certain extent, it meets the fair expectations and multiple high -quality judicial needs of the people in the new era of the people in the new era.，Correspondingly，Promote the trust of the public's trust in justice and their own law -abiding consciousness。

Usually under the circumstances，The judge has a general understanding of the case in the face of the case, especially in the pre -court stage，All information processing is processed、Calculation of psychological characteristics，Build a case story of a "format tower"，Preliminary prediction assessment on the results of the referee is right and wrong。This manifestation is a tentative hypothetical Bet365 lotto review conclusion，It represents the psychological expectations and direction of the judge's final result of the referee，For example, the prediction view of the judge in the criminal case on the results of the conviction and quantification results。Professor Bai Jianjun has conducted an empirical analysis of the sample in the sample of 320,000 criminal judgments (referring to the charges of charged and its corresponding legal consequences)，The tentative conclusion of conviction comes from the asymmetry of evidence information、Activity suggestion、Control forces comparison of disparity、The prosecution of the primary selection of the case。At the same time，Based on the collective experience of the judge, he also analyzed the significance of predictability of sentencing results: with more than 140,000 cases of traffic accidents as samples，Determine on the sentencing of its sentencing，The sentencing model established based on this can be used for sentencing forecast，Promoting judicial justice，Improve legal supervision and trial management level。

The function of the judge's prediction of certainty is mainly reflected as: during the trial，Judges can better exercise the right to explain the right to law and legal issues、Establishing and establishing the focus of controversy、Questions for processes and facts, and evidence review and evaluation。Today's emerging information technology such as the Internet is deeply integrated into the construction of the rule of law society，That is, gradually entering the era of intelligent digital，Application big data statistical analysis model to quantify prediction case referee results，The prediction of prediction is certain。American realist jurist Lu Yilin's relative certainty for this prediction，Also known as "Estimated"。Of course，You should also see the big data computing model or the artificial intelligence algorithm model to make the prediction more certain，Algorithm opaque、Difficult explanation、Discrimination and other "black box" problems，Data -dependent human -computer interaction decision and prejudice bet365 Play online games fallacy in data ourselves，Makes intelligent prediction more difficult to control。

The Outline of the Implementation of the Construction of the Law of the Law (2020-2025) "proposed，Promote big data、Scientific and technological innovation achievements such as artificial intelligence and other judicial work deep integration，Improve the "Internet+Litigation" mode，Strengthening the construction of litigation service facilities，Comprehensive construction of intensive efficiency、Diverse solution to income、Points of the people and the people、Smart Precision、Open Interaction、Modern litigation service system with blending shared。my country's accelerated socialist socialist society，It is performed in the judicial scene as network、Sunshine、Intelligent Court of Smart Court，This is the way to provide more convenient litigation services and solution for the people。The construction of the Smart Court depends on the application of artificial intelligence technology in the field of judicial trial，Provides new opportunities for the determination of judges from the micro field。For example，In the construction of the Smart Court, the computing model established by the judge using the big data platform，Paper information on massive cases (such as the prosecution、Answers、Materials such as pre -court and trial transcripts) for in -depth mining and extraction of full samples is text analysis technology，Automatically generate and intelligent push case prediction results。This prediction not only increases the degree of certainty，and more accurate。

Analysis of the above indicates，The judge predicted in the construction of the social construction of the rule of law is relatively certain，But this is a hypothetical conclusion or even a vague attitude or position，Itself has abolition，Can be corrected or even overturned。From the logical order of legal methods，Judges generally find the assumption of conclusion，Perform sufficient internal and external certificates for inspection。From the dual processing model of cognitive psychology，Judge first obtained the preliminary surface conclusion Bet365 app download of the case through the system 1 (experience -intuition processing mechanism)，Then go through system two (rational -analysis mechanism) to conduct a substantial supervision of pre -judgment、Debugging and correction。The rich judges who have a rich trial practice have formed a more accurate sense of legal skills，Use the predicted conclusion obtained by the system，It is more quickly and reliable。But this does not become a superb business judge to give up the reason for the final referee conclusion。In the final analysis, it is still in the final analysis of the argumentation obligation that can be abolished with the argument that the judge should afford.。It can be said，The judge predicts a certain side，At the same time, we must make a certain re -inspection improvement on the pre -judgment，Small group decision -making methods such as collegiate panels，Judges will conduct discussions and exchanges on the review of evidence information，Even changing personal predictions and forming new factual evidence confidence，But it is difficult to say that the change of prediction is your own defect or dilemma encountered。Because the judge's prediction of the referee thinking cannot make the evaluation of good, bad and bad，From the perspective of cognitive psychology，Anyone's stimulation of information materials，Both will instinctively respond to。Analysis from the perspective of Ying Ran，The general thinking process of the judge's judgment is: pre -judgment in front of the court according to intuition，Then reflect on the balance between the facts of the case and the normative purpose of the trial，The final judgment will revise prediction and conclusions。instead of illegal law, the judge believes that the judge is just a virtual or lie in accordance with the law，Its "pre -pre -first，Reverse reasoning of reasonable or legitimate "is the essence of the referee。

The real dilemma in the construction of the society of rule of law is to become absolutely thoroughly thoroughly thoroughly complete，The prediction of the referee results into a final judgment result，And completely ignore it that it deserves Bet365 lotto review to be controlled by rational verification and deviation，There is a possibility that may be faked abolition。Take criminal case as an example，Under the background of the transfer system in my country，The judge had been in contact and studied the investigation agency、All case paper record materials formed by the public prosecution agency。The dossier transmitted by the submitted transfer is a written evidence material formed by the investigation stage (mainly here) and the prosecutor's litigation procedure and verification of the case formed by the procuratorial organs when reviewing and prosecution，The main records are not conducive to the suspect、Photo evidence materials of the defendant。This way the judge can easily fall into the pre -enrollment misunderstanding to the defendant in front of the court，It is believed that the investigation organs and procuratorial organs generally will not make mistakes in cases，Forms confidence in the transmitted written dose of the transmitted (not decided first)，In the next court survey、In the debate, due to existing nature、Anchor effect、Lost and disgust、Excessive self -confidence、Inspirational psychological prejudice effects such as later seeing Mingzhi，Judges are more questions about verifying predictions，Finding the "confirmation" habit of finding the facts is just the mutual form of evidence between the evidence and information recorded in the record of the dossier，Even the pre -judgment conclusion is even directly regarded as the final referee，Therefore, trials often focus on guilty、Evidence of sin，Selective ignore or even hidden、Discarding evidence of innocence or lighter crime，Reasonable opinions on neglecting the defense lawyer，Conferry of the defendant's court's confession，This "prediction -confirmation" thinking has obvious one -way features。Experimental measurement also found，Judge who has read the investigation case before the court，It is more inclined to make a guilty judgment than those who have not read，and basically tend to adopt the dossier transcript material of the guilty Bet365 lotto review court before the court。

The prediction of the judge above the judge's prediction in the dilemma encountered in the society of the rule of law in my country，The key stubborn illness reflecting the substantial reform of the court trial is the trial cognitive structure of "dossier transcript centralism"，The source of the structure is the linear process structure centered on the strong investigation as the centered on。This not only represents the judges who are analyzed above, blindly and optimisticly adhere to the pre -judgment of the scroll，And in the trial, the high structuralness of the judge depends on the so -called "facts" carried by various written evidence and the composition of document materials，Taking this as the main review and judgment object and admission to the case basis。In short，The firming prediction formed by the transcript of the case volume has a substantial decisive effect on the results of the referee，The judgment becomes a copy of the conclusion of the prediction，Therefore, the blur of the trial process is caused、flowing in ritual performance，Public review of the content of the dossier and the conclusion of the investigation、Confirmation program。

When it is found to find the crux of the jurisdiction in the construction of a judge in the construction of the rule of law in the rule of law，The key to the corresponding "prescription" is to gradually promote the transformation from the dossier center to the trial center，Explore comprehensive supporting collaborative path changes，Reshape the trial cognitive structure，Realizing the substantialization of trials。For details，The judge itself must reflect on the prediction of pre -judgment of the court，Control correction prediction that may cause cognitive bias，Persist in innocent positive、Suspicious crimes have no principles; establish a modern multi -level three -dimensional evidence review system structure system，Comprehensively implement the principle of evidence referee and litigation evidence rules，Promote key witnesses to fully appear，Enhanced the regulation of factual tailoring and strengthening the facts of the case、Evidence reasoning; moderate bet365 best casino games separation of investigation and review of pre -review judges、Trial Judge，Strictly restricted the transfer of the case of the case and the use of the use of its use in principle; comprehensively guarantee the parties' questions、debate、Defense、Quality Certificate、The right to judge such as right and other fairies，Program relief ways to give valid rights，A programming sanctions mechanism that strengthens or restricts the rights of parties; strengthen judicial power、Effective restrictions on the right to investigate the right to investigations，Standardized investigation behavior, etc.。

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(Author Unit: School of Law School of Zhejiang University of Technology)