Some Western media and think tanks judge the Chinese economy like a pendulum，Frequent quickly placed from one end to the other。Experts are still arguing about China's rise and "threat"，The saying of "China's Miracle End" has recently appeared。This view is considered，Structural defects in China's economy，These defects are pushing China to the direction of long -term stagnation of economic development。The long -term growth rate of China's economy will "return to the average level of developing countries"，It is impossible to surpass the United States around 2030 as previously predicted。

These views are not not challenged。For example，Senior Researcher at the Institute of International Economics of the American Think Tank、Chinese economic expert Nicholas R. Lardy questioned the effectiveness of these assertions，It is believed that the periodic spiral decline is predicted according to the current economic performance to be too early，or it is wrong at all。Martin Wolf, chief economic commentator of the Financial Times, also said，Although facing challenges，China's economy still has many advantages，Especially with huge human capital and advanced science and technology，Not urgently announced that the Chinese economy has reached its peak。

In fact，If these experts can carefully study related data without political purposes，They will make a more optimistic assessment of the Chinese economy。China's economy is steadily recovering，Long -term prospects are still optimistic。Although there is no shortage of challenges，But China's economy has great advantages and toughness，And the Chinese government has sufficient policy tools to promote economic advancement。

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From the latest Chinese economic data，In the third quarter of 2023, domestic GDP (GDP) increased by 4.9%year -on -year，higher than 4.5%of the market expectations; 1.3%month -on -month increase，0.8 percentage points accelerated from the second quarter。In the first three quarters of 2023, GDP reached 91302.7 billion yuan (about 12.5 trillion US dollars，Conversion of exchange rates at 1 USD = 7.3 yuan)，GDP increased at a health level of 5.2% year -on -year; compared to the same period last year，China GDP increases by about 580.8 billion US dollars。That is to say，In the first three quarters of 2023，China's GDP increases higher than 2022, the annual economic aggregate of the two countries, Norway and Belgium (579.3 billion US dollars and US $ 57.86 billion)。

From the perspective of the supply end，In the first three quarters of 2023, the added value of industrial industries above designated size increased by 4%year -on -year，The added value Bet365 lotto review of industries above designated size in September actually increased by 4.5%year -on -year，Explain that industrial growth is accelerating。More importantly，The output of solar cells in the first three quarters increased by 63.2%，The output of new energy vehicles increased by 33.7%。This indicates，Industrial production while healthy recovery，Industry upgrade is also accelerating。The added value of the service industry increased by 6%，This pair of employment and income growth and travel、Transportation and hotel services to meet consumer needs is very important。Information transmission、The added value of the software and information technology service industry increased by 12.1%，Explain that the technical content of the service industry is also rapidly increasing。The booming development of the information industry will provide great help for other industries and overall economic development。

From the perspective of demand，National fixed asset investment in the first three quarters of 2023 increased by 3.1%year -on -year。Although the real estate industry is still being adjusted，National real estate development investment decreased by 9.1%，But infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment have increased by 6.2%, respectively。High -tech industrial investment continues to grow rapidly，Investment of high -tech manufacturing and high -tech service industries increased by 11.3%respectively、11.8%。If you deduct real estate investment，private investment increased by 9.1%，Explain that private investors' confidence and investment willingness of the economy have been steadily increased。This strongly refutes some Western experts "Guojin people retreat，The false judgments of the fallen cliff fall "。

From the perspective of consumer demand for residents，Consumption growth is significantly accelerated，Total retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters of 2023 increased by 6.8%year -on -year，The growth rate of exceeding GDP and fixed asset investment。The accelerated trend of consumption growth is also further reflected in the retail data in September。September，The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.5%year -on -year，0.9 percentage points accelerated from last month。Another，Eleven Golden Week，About 826 million domestic travel travel，increased by 4.1%from 2019，Realizing domestic tourism income of 753.43 billion yuan，1.5%increase from 2019。This can be seen，Consumer confidence accelerates recovery，Effectively enhanced the motivation of consumption growth。

From the perspective of foreign trade，Exports in the first three quarters of 2023 exports 176025 billion yuan，increased by 0.6%; imports 13199.6 billion yuan，decrease 1.2%。Import and export is offset，Trade surplus 4402.9 billion yuan。The main reason for the slowdown in export growth is the bet365 best casino games sluggish demand and the rise of protectionism。International Monetary Fund (IMF) data display，The newly introduced trade barriers to various countries have increased significantly since 2019，It reached nearly 3,000 items in 2022。IMF forecast 2023 Global trade will only increase by 0.9%。In this international environment，Domestic and international dual -loop strategy is particularly important。China must speed up the construction of a national unified market，Use the incentive policy to expand the effective domestic demand，It is necessary to assist export companies to improve export capabilities，Improve the export competitiveness of products and services。It is worth noting that，From January to July, China Automobile Export 2.533 million vehicles，increase 67.9%。China Automobile Industry Association expects，2023 Chinese automobile exports will exceed 4 million vehicles，Among them, new energy vehicles are stable over 1 million vehicles。This is China's industry upgrade、Milestone moved to high -end value chain。At the same time，The production and export of Chinese electric vehicles helps to accelerate green transformation in other countries and regions in the world。

　Real estate gradually stabilizes and a new growth engine 

Some Western critics say that China is on the "edge of financial collapse" because of "real estate bubbles"。This interpretation is wrong。It is true，The real estate industry must cool down、Clear，China has proposed the positioning and "three red lines" policy for "housing and living"。The slowdown in the current real estate industry is a thoughtful choice。The real estate industry is experiencing a adjustment process，During this period，Real estate developers need to complete unfinished projects，Promoting deleveraging and integrating in the industry。This may bring economic interests to some investors and creditors，But helps to curb systemic financial risks。The reason is，First，The bank's direct financing of the real estate developer only accounts for a small part of the bank's loan balance; the second，In China，Buyers usually pay a certain percentage of down payment，Not easily breach of contracts in arrears of loans; third，Different from Japan that year，Chinese companies are not wide、Use real estate as a mortgage loan; fourth，Unlike the 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis，China's real estate industry does not have large -scale finance、bondization; fifth，The debt in the real estate industry is mainly debt，The People's Bank of China and state -owned asset management companies have the ability to provide the bank with the necessary liquidity and capital support at any time。

Various evidence indicates，The possibility of huge losses in the real estate industry in China or the possibility of extensive Bet365 app download financial crisis is extremely small。Under the promotion of the supply side and demand side policy in the future，The real estate industry will gradually stabilize。In terms of supply，As described above，Credit will still flow to real estate developers to complete its unfinished housing projects。The construction of the affordable housing and the urban village reconstruction plan will also add power to the real estate industry。In terms of demand，Recent policies，If the ratio of the down payment ratio is relaxed、Dowards the mortgage interest rate、New regulations for tax refund of house purchase deeds，All will help encourage the demand for house purchase。Of course，Due to the slowdown in urbanization and population growth，The scale of the real estate industry is difficult to return to the level of the peak period。A major challenge facing China's economy in the future is to find a large -scale investment that replaces the growth engine to replace the real estate industry。And this growth engine should be concentrated in the following two aspects。

First，As President Xi Jinping and the Chinese government have been emphasized for a long time，China must promote innovation driver、Development led by advanced productivity。In recent years，China R & D funding has maintained a faster growth，2022 National investment research and experimental development funds 3078.29 billion yuan，2.54%of GDP。Driven by the "Made in China 2025" strategy，With the support of government investment guidance funds and private investment funds，China's investment and production in science and technology continues to flourish。China is currently artificial intelligence、5G communication technology、Quantum computing and other strategic technologies are leading positions。China has also accelerated the leap -forward transformation from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing"。In recent years，With the decline in real estate development investment，Financial resources are guided to the industrial department more，Continue to provide support for industrial production and innovation。，Public investment in the construction of new infrastructure construction such as 5G and other governments will continue to promote the development of the high -tech industry，and play a guidance role for private investment scientific and technological innovation、Give full play to the effect。

Private equity and private credit also play an important role in guiding investment into high -tech industries and providing financing。Policy support in current technology financing，Including providing convenience for the issuance of bonds in high -tech industry、Improve supervision and promote the healthy development of private equity investment funds and venture capital，will help inspire private bet365 live casino games capital to enter high -tech industries。，Although the overall growth trend of foreign direct investment (FDI) slows down，But the introduction of high -tech industries in the first half of 2023 increased by 7.9%，High -tech manufacturing investment increased by 28.8%，This is the result of the common effect of promoting factor and pulling factors。On the one hand，Foreign investors are optimistic about the prospects of Chinese science and technology，I have the motivation to seek a generous investment opportunity。On the other hand，China has launched a statement and policy that welcomes foreign investment。For example，The State Council issued the "Opinions on Further Optimizing the Environment of Foreign Investment and Increases Foreign Investment"，Proposed 24 policies and measures in 6 aspects，Continue to attract foreign investors into the ideal investment direction and field。FDI can not only provide capital，More importantly, it can provide technical transfer and overflow effect，It played a beneficial effect on the development of Chinese scientific and technological innovation。

Next，Since 2010，China's economy embarks on the journey of demand and re -balance。Fixed asset investment is still an important part of demand，But in view of the increase in investment，Need to balance it through a certain form of final needs，Whether it is family or government consumption，Still net export。As the Chinese people become richer，Add weak external demand，China needs to expand domestic consumption demand。Actually，2010-2021，China's family consumption growth rate is faster than GDP growth，The average contribution rate to GDP growth exceeds 57%(the average contribution rate of investment is about 42%，The average contribution rate of net exports is about 1%)。But，The new crown epidemic and closed control measures affect consumer confidence，The adjustment of the property market and weaken the wealth effect，Consumption demand is challenged。Therefore，It is imperative to introduce valid economic policies to support the consumption of residents。

　　Increased consumption from the long run 

President Xi Jinping pointed out，Establish and improve the long -term mechanism of expanding the consumption of residents，Make residents with stable income and consume、No worry about consumption、The consumer environment is excellent to gain a strong wish for consumption。Western scholars proposed to use cash to stimulate consumption，Some places in China have indeed launched consumer vouchers，But cash issuance is not a way to continuously effectively stimulate consumption。Because，If you cannot improve consumer confidence and income，Temporary cash issued is likely to be deposited for emergency needs，or，Once the cash Bet365 app download issued is exhausted，Consumers immediately reduce consumption。Therefore，Consider the long -term consumption of residents。

First，Encourage and provide conditions for the private sector to create more employment opportunities，and increase the salary level。The Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting the Development of the Private Economy in July 2023 put forward 31 measures in 8 aspects，will help inspire entrepreneurs' spirit，Create more opportunities for employment and income growth。，Protecting workers (especially workers in the platform economy) and policies to increase wage standards will also help income and consumption growth。

Second，The central government can launch a comprehensive employment security plan，by the central financial fund，Create employment opportunities locally。These tasks may be "inaccurate" for the private sector，But they have social value，You can hire young people, especially college students who just graduated，Provide training，Cultivate work skills、Add work experience，To help them transition to work when they have a suitable private job opportunity。Comprehensive employment guarantee can not only promote the full use of human capital、Create social value，can also make employment、Income and consumption form a virtuous cycle。Compared with cash issuance，The cost of funds of the comprehensive employment security plan is actually lower。And，Due to strong targeted，The efficiency of fiscal expenditure used to ensure comprehensive employment will be higher。That is to say，Fund flows to those who really need them、People who tend to consume rather than savings。The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2022 points out，Continue to implement positive fiscal policy and stable monetary policy。，The comprehensive employment security plan also indirectly reduces the unemployment insurance and subsidies、Demand for welfare expenditures such as low -income group subsidies，The net demand for finance is lower than the surface looks lower。Last，Public employment opportunities to create commodities and services needed for society，Increased supply will inhibit inflation pressure。In short，The central government has sufficient financial space to fund the comprehensive employment security plan。

third，Local fiscal expenditure plays an important role in promoting the stable and healthy development of the economy and ensuring people's livelihood。The central government can consider increasing the fiscal transfer payment of the local government，The ability to enhance local governments to carry out counter -cyclical expenditures and pay debt。The central government's regulation of local government debt is not only feasible，and it is conducive to the improvement of the government's overall bet365 Play online games debt structure。Of course，Local governments must strictly perform financial responsibilities in accordance with regulations，Balanced revenue and expenditure，Effective management debt。Strictly implement the linkage of local government debt (including explicit and hidden debt) and local government officials and evaluations.，Can play a certain role of supervision and checks and balance。

To sum up analysis，China's economy is stabilizing and recovering。Although there are challenges，China's economic market is still steadily rising，At the same time, the government also has sufficient policy tools to guide and support economic development。The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank's expected GDP growth rate in China in 2023 are 5.4%and 5.1%，The expected goal of 5%of the year's annual growth of the Chinese economy is in line with。This can be seen，Strange observation and research will make people confident in China's economic prospects，and the sensational "Chinese Economic End Conclusion" that are heard from some Western media and think tanks are very different。China will continue to firm determination、Practical forging ahead，Development open、tolerance、High -quality、Modern economy with sustainable development。

　　(The author is a professor of economics at the University of Wramt University in the United States)