[United States] Lucas Rentschler、[United States] Christopher J. DAWE/Wen Yang Lanlan/Translation

Repeatedness is one of the basic requirements of scientific experiments。In the field of natural science，The repetitiveness of the experiment should be accurate，Meeting the same conditions, the same results; life sciences related to people、Medicine、Psychology、behavioral science and other fields，Experimental repetitiveness should also meet a certain probability，Otherwise, the conclusion obtained according to the experiment does not have universality。However, in recent years，Many original experiments cannot be repeated by other scholars，Become a lonely example。Due to the difficulty of this reappearing research results，Therefore, the "duplicate crisis" has appeared，Cervical degree of the results of the results of the results of the research、The effectiveness of the current scientific research methods and the academic publishing supervision mechanism proposed challenges。Repeated crisis exceeds the category of simple statistical abnormalities，The dilemma behind it threatens the basis Bet365 app download of scientific research and knowledge progress。

Repeated crisis damages people's trust in scientific research，After all, only when the results are reliable，Application in the real world is meaningful。To cope with the duplicate crisis、The credibility of reconstruction science，Urgent needs to be statistics、Reform of research methods and transparency，Establish a set of strict and general applicability standards。

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Social scientists often use the experiments of human participants to study behavior problems，Different from the observation method，Such experiments often infer the impact by introducing conditions to one group of participants。For example，Researchers provide incentive information to a group of participants，and compare their performance in the task with the control group that has not received bet365 live casino games special encouragement。As long as all the variables of the two groups of participants are the same，The difference between them can be attributed to changes brought about by the introduction of the introduction。On the one hand，Experimental methods can clarify which intervention measures are affecting real human behavior，Establish a cause and effect in a more certain way，instead of summarizing the correlation in the observation data。On the other hand，Use experimental methods to study human behavior，A carefully designed reliable experiment should be reproducible，To ensure that the relevant discovery is not caused by accident。The charm of the experiment comes from the rigor of analysis，Also from ensuring the reliable results of the results。

However, in recent years，The increasing obvious is，A considerable part of the experimental results cannot withstand strict re -inspection，This trend has shadowed the reliability of experimental research。Psychology is a significant example of this problem，Some scholar studies discovered，Only 39%of psychological research results were successfully reproduced in the experiment。

Unfortunate is，Repeated crisis does not only exist in the field of psychology，Research indicates，This is a common problem。In the field of economics，Researchers try to repeat the 18 experimental research results published in two top journals，Only 61%of the result was successfully reproduced。The inconsistency of the experimental results not only causes people to doubt the results of the research，also indicates that there are broader systemic problems in the scientific research process。In an important area such as economics，Nearly 40%of the research results cannot be repeated，Must attract high attention。If the results of the peer evaluation are more reliable than throwing coins，Then there must be serious problems。

In some areas，Repeated crisis and even more serious。Marketing is one of the areas with the lowest recurrence rate，The failure rate reached 89%，Its proportion is significantly higher than psychology and economics。This shocking number highlights the urgent necessity of reform，Social science researchers must face Bet365 app download up to repeat crisis，Use more transparent and strict methods，to restore confidence in scientific research。

It is critical to recognize the value and dilemma of repetitive research。At present, it seems，Lack of necessary incentive mechanisms to encourage scholars to conduct such research，There is a gap in people's understanding of the duplicate crisis。Although the severity of the crisis is different due to the field，But it has become a common problem，and spread to all areas of social sciences，Urgently need to find a more systematic method to cope with related challenges。

　"Positive Bad" is an important reason

To solve the problems related to the duplicate crisis，It is necessary to discuss the reasons it produces，Explanation why many studies that have been strictly evaluated cannot be successfully reproduced。

An important driving factor for repeating crisis is how to select works in academic journals。Journal reviews are more inclined to choose those that may cause attention、Research results of changing people's views on related issues or subverting traditional concepts，Research on a novel or positive result of preference，Research that often ignores those who cannot produce significant statistical results or are just repetitive attempts。This preferences leading to the representative loss of research，Excessive emphasis on positive discovery，but may be valuable but less sensational research is marginalized。At the same time，This "publishing bias" also hinders repeated research in the field of social sciences，Because of the possibility of publishing the results of such research in top journals。

"Positive Bad" problem directly affects the enthusiasm of the work of social science workers。The competitive pattern of academic circles is often described as "either posted，Either Destiny "，The pressure to achieve breakthrough results is huge。Drive by career development，Researchers may give priority to the more eye -catching discovery，instead of the method reliability、Repeated research。This is not conducive to maintaining the integrity Bet365 app download of scientific research，Because the pursuit of publishing may cover up the pursuit of scientific Bet365 lotto review truth。In fact，Researchers may only publish the research results they think are novel or surprising，This is sometimes called "file drawer problem"。

，In order to get novel results and publish it smoothly，Some researchers also have "P value hackers" (also known as "P value tampering", "P value operation", etc.)。"P value hacker" refers to manipulating data，Until discovered the results of statistical significance，This process is usually at the cost of sacrifice accuracy and reliability。P value hacker changed the real research focus, that is, based on data observation rather than departing from assumptions，As a result, the research results are potentially misleading or untenable。This approach distorts the scientific research process，Published on the pursuit of real scientific inquiry。

Another problem worthy of attention is the general low statistical effect。To make the experiment successfully detect the real problem，Researchers must collect enough data。，Currently people do not particularly emphasize this。On the contrary，The focus of the research is whether the result is statistically significant。Insufficient samples may cause the detection of real problems is not accurate，The conclusions that you get often cannot withstand further review。When repeated research attempts，Due to these initial problems，Usually the original result cannot be reproduced。，As mentioned earlier，Researchers have no motivation to conduct repeated research。

　Repeat crisis damage science and credibility

Repeated crisis is not only academic debate，and is a severe challenge，It not only destroys the scientific nature of academic literature，also affects the policy effectiveness supported by the literature and the public's trust in social science research。Repeatedness is an important sign of scientific reliability，But is now psychological、Economics、Political Science and marketing systematically invalidity，shakes the scientific publication and funds、Concepts of prestige and actual application。

For a long time，People have always advocated formulating policies based on scientific surveys。The scientific research results published in the bet365 best casino games top journal have always been regarded as a gold standard，Provide information support for data -driven policy，Repeated crisis of social sciences has caused people's concerns，People have questioned their reliability。So，You need to take a more cautious approach when formulating a policy。

At the same time，We need to re -evaluate policies implemented based on early social science research。If the basic research of information providing information for these policies is defective or cannot be repeated，It means that these policies may be based on unstable basis。This situation requires decision makers to re -evaluate the policy，and revise it if necessary。

academic and public also need to be conscious、Criticized the research results。Research method、The overall repetitive attitude of the sample volume and the result of the result，This is important to understanding social science research more accurately。

More importantly，Repeat crisis remind us to fundamentally adjust the development method and reward mechanism of social science research，Re -evaluate the academic incentive method，Promote repeated practice，Provide the public with more transparent、The easier to obtain knowledge communication channel，To restore people's trust in the results of social science research and ensure the correlation and utility of their social applications。

　　Start with fundamental issues to reform

Given the wide range of crisis and wide，Need to start with fundamental questions，instead of doing something that treats the standard and not the root cause。instead of doing something that treats the standard and not the root cause，Mechanical adjustment of cooperative knowledge construction，Around the transparency protocol、Repeated examination、Incentive structural adjustment and method training, etc.。For example，Before the experiment starts，To the independent third party，If an open scientific framework，Pre -registration research Question、Experimental Design and Analysis Plan。Pre -registration research details can limit the analysis flexibility of researchers，to reduce the non -repeatability。

At the same time，Allow bet365 live casino games the public to understand the experiment -related agreement、Details such as software and data，Strengthen the discovery and exposure mechanism of establishing malfeasance。Many publishers have developed a transparent inspection list before submission。Open data and material certification badges also help people to change scientific research culture。，Research funders are increasingly seeing the value of repeated research，Try to re -evaluate their past investment。Some funders who are in a special status can improve duplication by distributing some budgets to verification research，Trend reliability as a priority，instead of considering the matters afterwards。

To solve the problem of "publish bias"，Academic journals can consider the implementation of the results of the results of the implementation of the results of the results，Evaluate research without knowing the results，The rigor and methodology of research on research。This change will reduce the importance of novel results，The quality of the selection of standards to the research design and analysis will be selected，Standards that help improve scientific research、Enhance the credibility of the research results。

Researchers need to emphasize transparency、Scientific research ethics、The academic environment of methodology and open scientific principles。So，We need to build a framework with the reality that "research often walks into the dead alley"，instead of making chasing and publishing the most concerned about researchers。Training for the history of scientific philosophy、Self -correction process of learning science may also be a way，It may help relieve the duplicate crisis。

Repeated crisis reduces the value of different academic literature and the effectiveness of real policies related to it，Destroy the public's trust in social science research。Reality research results were once considered to be the cornerstone of high -quality research，But now facing challenges in many influential areas。Even so，We can still improve transparency、Make adjustment of methodology and incentive structure。

If we face the problem、System that changes the light quality of the weight，It is still possible to realize the self -correction Bet365 app download of scientific research in the long knowledge accumulation。，To do this，It must be publicly acknowledged that there is a phenomenon of misleading positive results、Potential issues of waste and policy，Otherwise，More and more people will come forward to accuse social science research arbitrarily filtering "noise"。To make scientific progress be built in more ethics、More sustainable，It must be acknowledged that the reasons for the duplicate crisis，and solve related problems。

　　(The author is a senior researcher at the Development and Opportunities Research Center of Utah, Utah; Ph.D.