According to the research report of the World Bank,In more than half a century since World War II,Many Ratin America and Southeast Asian countries have successfully achieved economic growth,But always in the middle income stage,The ranks of not entering the high income threshold and entering developed countries。This phenomenon is summarized as "secondary income trap"。According to the division standard of the World Bank,China has entered a middle -income stage in 2010。,China's economic development has entered a new normal,Growth from high speed to medium and high speed,This has stimulated the thinking of the academic community about whether China may fall into the middle income trap。Scholars decrease from capital yield、Population dividends disappear、Regional development imbalance、Insufficient accumulation of human capital、Relators of independent innovation ability is relatively weak,Analysis of the challenges faced by China's economy spanning the "secondary income trap"。Research indicates,System is the fundamental reason to determine the performance of a country's long -term economic growth。Bonus bonus through excavation system,Inject new vitality into economic growth,It can provide an important guarantee for successful leapfrog "secondary income trap"。
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According to the definition of Nous,The system refers to the design of people、The formal and informal rules of the interactive relationship between people。According to the general economic theory,Economic growth is manifested as the continuous improvement of per capita income,This depends on the investment bet365 best casino games of human capital and material capital and technological progress in a broad sense,improvement of economic efficiency caused by various factors。but,Due to the decreased law of capital marginal income,Continuous growth can only rely on technological progress brought by innovation。Regardless of factor input or technological progress,It's just the direct cause of economic growth。The speed and direction of factor input and technological progress are determined by the incentives and constraints faced by the economic subject,and these incentives and constraints are essentially determined by the institutional arrangement of this economy。
The formation of "medium income trap" is directly related to the system。After entering the middle income stage,With the increase of income level,The comparative advantage of a country and the post -development advantage will change significantly。The rise in labor costs causes the original low -end manufacturing industry of the middle -income economy to lose cost advantage,Faced with fierce competition from low -income countries; at the same time, during the process of rising to high -end climbing to the industrial chain and value chain,Facing the squeezing of high -income countries that master a large number of patents and advanced technologies。So,It must be used through technical improvement and industrial upgrade to resolve the pressure of rising costs。With the improvement of income and technical level,The post -development advantage of the middle -income economy has also changed significantly,The source of technological progress shifts from the resource reoperation to innovation,The type of technological progress shifted from adaptive innovation based on learning and imitation to independent innovation based on original creation。The transformation of industrial upgrading and technological progress bet365 Play online games model is the key to the economy from high -speed growth to high -quality development,But this is not naturally possible,The support of both software and hardware infrastructure and public products requires extensive software and hardware infrastructure,such as road communication、Education Medical、The legal system and the unified and standardized market,It also needs to solve social problems due to structural adjustment,If the income is uneven、Regional imbalance、Trade friction and poverty unemployment。A country only has an institutional framework that is suitable for economic development,Only to meet the above conditions,Realize the transformation of the development method and the continuous economic growth,Successful crossing the "Secondary Income Trap"。
but,The system is precisely the shortcomings of most developing countries,It is the bad institutional quality that put some middle -income economies into the "secondary income trap"。The quality of the system refers to the extent that the rules set by the system can provide appropriate incentives and constraints,Opportunity behavior to inhibit various subjects,Makes the cost income it faces consistent with the overall cost of society。In practice,Some research institutions have set up different indicators,Collect the main and objective data of various countries,Quantitative institutional quality。Prove to experience,Many developing countries can achieve economic take -off by virtue of some special favorable conditions,If you have some kind of natural resources、favorable trade conditions or international environment、Flow of international capital。However, once you enter the middle income stage,When these favorable conditions change or are not enough to support continuous economic growth,Corresponding countries bet365 best casino games often have economic stagnation,Even cause social turmoil,so as to fall into the "trap"。There are only a small number of middle -income economies with high quality quality,The continuous adjustment of the system and policy,Solution or relieve the various economic and social contradictions and problems that occur with the increase in income,It becomes one of the few examples that span the "medium income trap"。
The adaptive efficiency of the system is effectively improved
With the change of income level,Industrial structure of a country、Technical type、Growth method,and the infrastructure of the software and hardware that are compatible with and the social problems accompanied by each other will continue to change。This is why the effective policies and strategies have worked in the economic take -off stage,It may become an obstacle to further development during the middle income stage,Therefore, it is not applicable to a "perfect" system that is unchanged in different development stages and historical backgrounds。On the contrary,Because the problem to solve is constantly changing,Only the system that is compatible with the development stage of the country and has strong elasticity,is the truly effective and appropriate system,To achieve sustainable economic development。
Improve the adaptability of the system,You need to start from two dimensions,That is the national ability and the level of rule of law,Noss will summarize it as "the dilemma of the country"。On the one hand,Only with strong national ability,can effectively provide infrastructure and public products necessary for development,Including a stable social order,Definition of property rights、Protection and implementation,This is the basic condition of the market mechanism function。On the other hand,It also needs a certain level of rule of law,Establish bet365 Play online games the necessary and effective rules and procedures for the correct use of its functions for the country and the government。Economic and social contradictions that need to be resolved、Conflict and problems changes,It can be appropriately adjusted to the national and government functions in accordance with these rules and procedures,With strong national capabilities as guarantee,Provide effective solutions,Therefore, the adaptability efficiency of the system。
What needs attention is,In most original capitalist countries,The enhancement of national capabilities and the level of rule of law are usually in the same historical process。So,Economists often only pay attention to the improvement of the level of rule of law on the key role of long -term development,and the role of national capabilities in development is more questionable。but,From the experience of developing countries, especially East Asian countries,Powerful national abilities play an extremely important role in the process of economic take -off,This point is for many Southeast Asia currently at the current low -income level、South Asian and African countries still have the meaning of reference。Of course,You should also see,In many middle -income countries,The lag of the level of rule of law has led to a serious economic and social crisis,The lesson is also extremely painful。
Deep excavation system dividends
At different historical stages,Due to the population bonus brought by the changes in population structure and the technical dividend brought by the post -issuing advantages,All made important contributions to supporting my country's economic growth,For a long time in the future,Institutional dividend will also play this role。
Data that measures the status of the economic and social system in a series indicates,The quality of my country's system has increased significantly Bet365 app download in the past 40 years,But compared with some developed countries and some East Asian economies that have successfully crossed the "secondary income traps",There is still a large gap。"Worldwide Gover Indicators" prepared by World Bank in 2017 as an example,Among 173 economies,my country's overall score ranking 100th,Roughly as Vietnam in Southeast Asia、Morocco in Africa and Dominica in Latin America are at a similar level。In the six sub -item indicators,China has a higher score in government efficiency and regulatory quality in representing national capabilities,But the index representing the level of the rule of law is low。So,The level of improvement of the rule of law is important to the improvement of my country's overall system quality。
other,From the experience of various countries,The following aspects are also conducive to promoting the improvement of the quality of the system。First is to form a general compliance with the Constitution。Constitution stipulates the fundamental system of a country,It is the fundamental rule of establishing and changing other systems。The respect and obedience of all members of the society for the Constitution,Make the system's operation and improvement.,to improve the adaptability efficiency of the system due to time。Second, the top -level design is widely combined with the public with the public。The system is a specification for all subjective behaviors,Involved the vital interests of all subjects,Therefore, effective institutional changes not only require the guidance and promotion of the decision -making layer,It also needs to establish an effective communication mechanism,Make the public's interests and opinions reflect。Third is to achieve more fair income and wealth distribution。The more fair allocation status helps to form a social environment that Bet365 app download promotes the improvement of the system。
(This article is the special fund project of the central university's basic scientific research business fee project "Theoretical controversy of major economic issues in China" (63182003) phase results)
(Author Unit: Coordinated Innovation Center of Socialist Economic Construction Socialist Economic Construction of Nankai University)
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