After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,The effectiveness of traditional monetary app bet365 download continues to decline,The "New Consensus" monetary app bet365 download framework has been criticized and reflected on by the mainstream macroeconomics community。Under the influence of crisis,Major developed economies face slow short-term effects of fiscal policies、The zero lower bound rigidity of conventional monetary app bet365 download、The triple constraints of the macro-prudential framework on the debt ceiling。Therefore,Central banks in various countries have generally adopted various unconventional monetary policies,Specifically, it is to respond to financial market dysfunction by strengthening liquidity support and large-scale asset purchases,The purpose is to maintain financial stability in the short term and restore real economic growth in the medium to long term,Structural monetary app bet365 download plays an important role。The evolution of structural monetary app bet365 download is closely related to the new development of post-crisis monetary app bet365 download theory,At the same time, it also further enriches the theoretical connotation and logical framework of monetary app bet365 download。
The “New Consensus” Monetary app bet365 download Framework and Theoretical Basis of Structural Monetary app bet365 download
The 1980s and 1990s were the period of the “Great Moderation” of the Western economy,During this period,Major developed economies led by the United States show “low inflation、Good trend of high growth,Experienced a prosperity cycle of nearly 20 years。The continued improvement of the economy has accelerated the integrated development of macroeconomic theory,New Keynesianism and Monetarist Criticism of Each Other、Accept and promote,The "new consensus" of macroeconomics has been formed。The core of the “new consensus” monetary app bet365 download theoretical framework is the inflation targeting system represented by the Taylor rule,Achieve the single goal of suppressing inflation through the single tool of base interest rate,Interest rate plays a key role in the operational framework of monetary app bet365 download。The transmission mechanism is,The central bank affects the interest rate level of the financial market by adjusting short-term interest rates,Then it is transmitted to medium and long-term interest rates,It will affect asset prices、Credit and exchange rates, etc.,Ultimately reflected at the level of total demand in the real economy。
Under this framework,On the one hand, the central bank’s excessive focus on the ultimate goal of monetary app bet365 download has led to a weakening of its focus on intermediary goals;On the other hand, the function of fiscal app bet365 download has been weakened,Significant decline in status。Therefore,The overall significance of monetary app bet365 download and macroeconomic app bet365 download has been further strengthened,Various structural problems in the economic system,In particular, the issues of the intermediary objectives and transmission mechanism of monetary app bet365 download are hidden invisibly。
The outbreak of the financial crisis not only caused great damage to the financial system and economic system,It also had a serious impact on the “new consensus” monetary app bet365 download theoretical framework。The "single target-single tool" operational framework cannot effectively deal with the risks of the financial system and the transformation of the economic structure after the crisis,The goal of financial stability was rediscovered and became an important app bet365 download basis。Academic circles generally believe that,It is precisely the traditional monetary app bet365 download theory that ignores structural factors such as financial intermediaries and financial frictions,That led to the crisis and the failure of traditional monetary app bet365 download。Therefore,Monetary app bet365 download faces how to incorporate financial frictions into benchmark models、How to re-understand the role of fiscal app bet365 download and debt app bet365 download,And how to carry out effective financial supervision and a series of new challenges。The traditional aggregate monetary app bet365 download is particularly weak in dealing with new challenges and problems,This theoretically provides a basis for the central bank to implement structural monetary app bet365 download。
Definition of structural monetary app bet365 download,The academic community has not yet reached a consensus。Traditional theory generally believes that,Fiscal app bet365 download affects a certain department or industry,Has a structural effect;Monetary app bet365 download affects the overall macroeconomy by adjusting price and quantity tools,So it is a total quantity app bet365 download,No structural characteristics。But some scholars believe that it is incomplete to define structural monetary app bet365 download only from the difference between traditional fiscal app bet365 download and monetary app bet365 download,If considering the operational tools of monetary app bet365 download、Micro-level aspects such as transmission mechanism and implementation objects,Then traditional monetary app bet365 download will logically produce structural effects。For example,Because different micro entities have different demands for credit,The impact of monetary app bet365 download is asymmetric,Therefore any monetary app bet365 download has structural characteristics。
The evolutionary logic of structural monetary app bet365 download after the 2008 financial crisis
Before and after the 2008 crisis,The monetary policies of developed economies and emerging economies have evolved from “conventional monetary app bet365 download – unconventional monetary app bet365 download – structural monetary app bet365 download”。Under the impact of crisis,Traditional aggregate monetary app bet365 download tools such as open market operations、Deposit reserves、Rediscount and refinancing, etc.,Although it can alleviate the macroeconomic liquidity problem in aggregate,However, during the crisis period, the high risk expectations and low willingness to lend of commercial banks have not changed,Financing constraints in the real economy remain tight。New research findings,The structural mismatch between monetary app bet365 download and the financial system is an important reason for the financial crisis,Facing the constraints of credit crunch and lower interest rate limit,The conventional monetary app bet365 download framework is malfunctioning。Therefore,During crisis response,The central banks of developed economies, represented by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have successively changed their traditional monetary app bet365 download operating frameworks,Turn to implement various innovative “unconventional” monetary app bet365 download tools,such as asset purchase、Quantitative Easing、Negative interest rate、Forward guidance, etc.,To make up for the shortcomings of conventional monetary app bet365 download。
In practice,Central banks of various countries, especially in response to liquidity traps and credit traps caused by obstruction of the monetary app bet365 download transmission mechanism,Adopted various unconventional structural tools。For example, the Federal Reserve is trying to restore normal credit mechanisms among financial institutions,Launch of term securities lending facility、Commercial Paper Financing Instrument、Term asset-backed securities loan facilities and other measures,ECB’s Targeted Long-term Refinancing Operations、The Bank of England’s financing-for-loan program and the Bank of Japan’s stimulus bank lending facilities are all such tools。The implementation mechanism of these innovative structural monetary policies,It is the use of directional tools to provide liquidity support for specific financial sectors or real industries,Improving short-term market liquidity through structural regulation。The purpose is to solve the problem of excessive financing costs in some areas of the real economy due to the "structural liquidity gap",Support credit to the real economy sector。Empirical research findings of some scholars,Operations such as Fed asset purchases and targeted credit support during the crisis lowered interest rates on long-term bonds and MBS to some extent,Therefore, it affirms the effectiveness of the central bank in providing targeted liquidity support to financial institutions and commercial banks。
Compared with traditional monetary app bet365 download,The advantages of innovative structural monetary app bet365 download are: first,Effectively avoids the "zero interest rate lower bound" aggregate rule restrictions and liquidity trap problems,Improving the market structure through direct regulation of long-term lending rates;Secondly,In response to the deteriorating market sentiment and declining investor confidence,Providing liquidity through targeted direction plays a "stimulant" role in guiding capital flows and boosting market expectations;Finally,Effectively balances the long-standing structural problems such as the transmission mechanism,A coordinated equilibrium has been reached between the financial system and the real economy。
New Directions in Structural Monetary app bet365 download Theory Research
Since 2013,In order to improve the flexibility and pertinence of app bet365 download tools,In the context of the decline in effectiveness of traditional monetary app bet365 download,Continuously innovate existing monetary app bet365 download tools,further enriches the theoretical connotation of structural monetary app bet365 download。In conventional deposit and loan base interest rates、Based on traditional tools such as deposit reserve ratio and forward and reverse repurchase,Asymmetric RRR cuts were adopted one after another、Short-term Liquidity Adjustment Facility (SLO)、Standing Lending Facility (SLF)、Medium-term lending facility (MLF and TMLF)、Mortgage Supplementary Loan (PSL) and Refinancing、Rediscount and other structural monetary app bet365 download tools。Under the overall positioning of "stable" monetary app bet365 download,“Unconventional” structural monetary app bet365 download stabilizes market liquidity、Building an interest rate corridor、Guide market interest rates and support the real economy,In particular, it has played a positive role in directional support for agriculture, rural areas and rural areas and the development of small and micro enterprises。The practice of structural monetary app bet365 download has improved the central bank’s monetary app bet365 download toolbox,It also provides new perspectives and experience for the development of monetary app bet365 download theory。At the theoretical and app bet365 download level,The following issues need to be studied in depth,Thus building a theoretical basis for better implementation of structural monetary app bet365 download。
First, on the role and significance of structural monetary app bet365 download in the transformation of monetary app bet365 download framework。current,China’s monetary app bet365 download framework is in a period of transition from quantity-based regulation to price-based regulation,The central bank is committed to constructing an “interest rate corridor” mechanism,Gradually improve the price-based regulation system based on interest rate marketization。The "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" proposed "improving the operational objectives of monetary app bet365 download、Regulatory framework and transmission mechanism,Building a target interest rate and interest rate corridor mechanism,The basic idea of promoting the transformation of monetary app bet365 download from quantity-based to price-based”,The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China further proposed “improving the dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary app bet365 download and macro-prudential app bet365 download,Deepening the market-oriented reform of interest rates and exchange rates”,further determines the overall goal for the transformation of China’s monetary app bet365 download framework。Under the "dual pillar" system,How structural monetary app bet365 download adapts to multiple effective goals,And promote the transformation of the monetary app bet365 download framework through adjustments and innovations in operational tools and transmission mechanisms,It is an important proposition that requires further in-depth study。
The second is about the positioning of structural monetary app bet365 download and its coordination with other economic policies。After the crisis,The structural unconventional monetary policies implemented by developed countries in Europe and the United States are aimed at easing the market liquidity crunch,Restore financial market functions,It is a crisis rescue method。The structural monetary app bet365 download implemented by China is positioned to provide a targeted solution mechanism for the structural contradictions of the real economy in specific areas,It is proactive directional control,Even become a "routine" operation。But from the perspective of monetary app bet365 download positioning,Frequently use such structural instruments with numerous instruments and complex terms,Has a negative effect on managing market expectations,Conflict with monetary app bet365 download objectives。At the theoretical and app bet365 download level,The monetary authorities need to consider and study the issue of normalization of structural monetary app bet365 download,Focus on solving the negative effects of "structural" distortions and "directional dependence" in the operation process,Correctly handle the conflict of structural monetary app bet365 download "intervention in the market"。Although the central bank is responsible for monetary app bet365 download,However, the problem of structural adjustment of the real economy cannot be solved by the central bank alone。Therefore the central bank should consider constructing a traditional monetary app bet365 download、Macro-prudential app bet365 download、Fiscal app bet365 download、Tax app bet365 download and other incentive-compatible directional regulatory framework,Especially in differentiated credit、Policies such as targeted RRR cuts are in progress,To further study how to take necessary supporting measures,To reduce the uncertainty of app bet365 download transmission。
The third is the relationship between structural monetary app bet365 download and financial supply-side reform。In the context of deepening supply-side structural reform,How to make good use of structural monetary app bet365 download tools,Give full play to the role of "precise drip irrigation" of prudent monetary app bet365 download,Thus promoting and deepening the structural reform of the financial supply side,Is important for monetary app bet365 download adjustment and reform,It is also an important content of the current and future monetary app bet365 download operations at the theoretical and app bet365 download research level。Especially in terms of credit support and direct financing issues for private enterprises and small and micro enterprises, as well as key areas and weak links in national economic development,There is also huge room for further innovation and improvement in structural monetary app bet365 download,The implementation effect of structural monetary app bet365 download also needs to be more scientifically evaluated and studied。
(Author’s affiliation: School of Economics, Renmin University of China、National Institute of Development and Strategy)
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