Since 2008，my country's macro leverage rate continues to rise，As of the end of March 2019，The total leverage rate of the three departments has reached 248.83%。How to stabilize leverage、Risk reduction，Make sure the financial system is stable，Become a question that is widely followed again。

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Under the contemporary currency financial system with credit currency as the main body，Currency is the liabilities of the coin -issuing authorities (generally central banks); and the central bank is with national credit，The guarantee for its currency value and circulation through financial legislation，So，Credit Credit Currency Credit，In the final analysis, it is reflected in national credit，Its essence is the liabilities of the state (more precisely the central government)。Compared to government bonds，The debt attributes of currencies do not show it most of the time，The reason lies in its concealment: the public debt pays to the interest to pay interest，Otherwise it is default (default)，This is common sense of contemporary economics。and the issuance of currency issuances does not have a hard constraint for its issuer (central bank) or guarantor (central government)，Of course, the super -scale expansion that can be issued by currency issuance in the short term to replace the lack of government expenditure，instead of being restrained by the size of the public debt，From the long term, it will form a currency over issue，If the real economy fails to have a corresponding length of growth，The disastrous high -speed inflation will be unavoidable。For this，The financial systems of various countries are all restricted to the central bank's currency issuance scale，It is particularly important that it is necessary bet365 Play online games to effectively avoid the government's overdraft of the central bank。

other，The economic growth driven by the demand side will always be restricted by the law of reduced marginal return: investment is a decrease in marginal output、Consumption is a decreasing marginal utility、Exit is a decrease in consumer marginal utility outside the country (border)。After the economic development reaches a certain level and the international trade reaches a certain scale，Update and upgrade the supply side brought by the lack of technological progress，The low and continuous economic growth rate of economic growth will be unavoidable。In this background，Demand conversion economic policy (whether it is a fiscal policy of tax reduction or a traditional monetary policy that reduces the benchmark interest rate), the driving force for economic growth will also tend to weaken margin。Policies are increasingly invalidated overweight economic growth，Directly leading to an increase in unemployment rate and expanding social welfare expenditure，In turn, forcing the government to do something to improve the status quo，This has caused major economies to expand government liabilities or quantitative loose roads.。

In terms of credit currency is essentially a hidden government liabilities with national credit，Quantitative easing and direct expansion of government liabilities are essentially the same，can be regarded as "leverage"。No matter what method, add leverage to the economy，In the short term，Can directly create exogenous consumer demand，Stimulate economic recovery。More importantly，For a long time，Through viscosity price and viscosity salary，A large amount of capital accumulation will be formed on the supply side，Can be used for high investment threshold、R with low probability of return&D investment，Therefore, continuous capital investment has been continuously invested on technological changes and industrial upgrades。bet365 best casino games Brief words，Add leverage to the economy in the background of a credit currency，It is better to continue to invest with national credit on technological innovation and supply -side upgrade。Once the technical leap and industrial upgrade really occur，Then the ability of emerging industries to accommodate capital has risen significantly，The leverage added to the past is digested by the real economy，Economy realizes the steady stability at a higher technical level;，Technical jump cannot be achieved，The leverage added in the past will squeeze out the real economy，Different debt externalization to debt crisis pressure，hidden debt (currency over issuance) becomes a pressure to continue inflation。

According to the above -mentioned ruler，It can roughly measure the situation of major economies in major economies。Europe by expanding government liabilities and quantitative release of liquidity，More flowing to the consumer field of social welfare -driven。Look at it for a long time，Because there is no technical change and industrial upgrade, the economy's capital absorption capacity，The dilemma of the increase in government debt and inflation alternately and strengthen each other is the inevitable result of its leverage。Japan continues to increase financial support for physical enterprises through the main bank framework，Abe continues to expand government liabilities after taking office。Different from Europe，The relatively closed financial market makes most of the financial debt in Japan digest internally，Effectively avoided debt crisis in the short term。Through the implementation of several rounds of quantitative easing policy，Although the United States has promoted its own economic recovery，But leading to a large amount of capital outflow，To a large extent, it offsets its efforts to transfusion to domestic supply side。

　Selection of deleveraging and stable leverage

The two theoretical results brought by the technical transition as described earlier are not clear bet365 live casino games and clear，In practice，From technological innovation to emerging industries to become a driving force for economic growth，Not only does it need to go through a longer period of time stagnation，And whether the technical transition can ultimately depends on the common effect of many non -economic factors。Many epoch -making technological innovation did not bring leap -forward development to its economic mother，The reason is that there are many other factors that do not cooperate，"The Mystery of Li Joseph" is one of them。Even if you only consider the time stagnation factors，The general stability that maintains the economy does not fall into the debt crisis or malignant inflation dilemma for continuous expanding leverage，Itself is one of the prerequisites for technological transition and industrial upgrade to be finally realized。Therefore，When the overall leverage reaches a certain scale，Take appropriate measures to remove leverage (or at least stable leverage)，Not only the need to reduce the risk of debt crisis，It is also the meaning of weighing short -term stability and long -term growth.。In other words，Before the realization of technological transition and industrial upgrade，If you do not take appropriate measures to take the initiative to remove leverage or stabilize leverage，Then the economy's capital absorption capacity is approximately squeezed out of the foam，So as passive deleveraging，The outbreak of the debt crisis or the formation of the vicious inflation situation。

But，In the background of the credit currency system，Whether it is explicit or hidden leverage，All have self -derived、The characteristics of increasingly expanded: The cost of stable debt in explicit debt，If the stock cannot be resolved，This cost will become a debt increase over stack; hidden debt will have inflation inertia，If the inflation expectations of the micro -subject cannot be fundamentally changed，then the currency authorities can only be bet365 live casino games forced to maintain or even further push the high inflation rate to hedge，thereby causing malignant inflation。The so -called stability，refers to basically digesting the cost of stability or keeping inflation expectations、Controlling debt increase does not increase its excessive growth，to ensure that the real economy is not affected by the financial end，Won a longer time window for technological innovation and industrial upgrading。Generally speaking，Debt compression to deleveraging，Either tightening fiscal policy (for explicit debt) through tax increases and reduction，Either realized the tightening monetary policy (for hidden debt) through the contraction of credit，In the end, they will act on the real economy，Inhibitory needs，Weaken growth power。Especially when the real economy is still in a weak stage or on the way to recovery，Excessive deleveraging measures may make the real economy worsening，and weaken the anti -risk ability of the micro -subject。From this perspective，Whether the deleveraging lift is feasible，High dependence on the economic cycle location where this process is located: only the period of continuous economic continues to prosper，Delinery is a option; when the economic downturn or just recovered，Stable leverage may be the only choice。

Based on this, it can analyze the past periods of major economies in the world and the current situation currently facing。In the secondary loan crisis (2007-2008)，The United States has experienced a fierce passive deleveraging process。and 2003-2006，The average annual GDP growth rate in the United States reaches more than 3%，in the stage of economic prosperity。After the crisis broke out，The Fed has implemented four -wheeled quantitative loose (QE)，Its essence is to enlarge the short -term leverage，Relax lever (debt) that has broken due to hidden leverage (currency) to break due to crisis。，The Fed seeks QE withdrawal，Special Global Global bet365 live casino games Status、Removal Trump's continuous expansion fiscal policy and trade protection policy，Conditions for their monetary policy to return to normal。The debt crisis that Europe trapped after 2009 is also a fierce passive deleveraging attempt。Facing the different economic conditions、Fiscal policies are all countries in the euro area，The European Central Bank is difficult to take care of Zhouquan，Therefore, it is impossible to achieve a complete alternative of hidden lever as the United States; the European debt crisis is accepted by debt reorganization and extension，The leverage rate does not have a substantial decline。Japan's explicit leverage rate has always ranked first in the world，Abe continued to promote loose monetary policy after taking office，While promoting economic recovery on the demand side，It also stacked hidden lever increases that were already at a high leverage rate。The trend of the continuous depreciation of the yen obviously helpless capital inflow and technological innovation。From this sense，The so -called "Abe Economics" is actually at the cost of sacrificing the possibility of long -term supply side transition，In exchange for short -term demand -driven economic recovery。Fortunately，Japan's unique main banking system allows its explicit debt to obtain a mechanism for sealing or even debt -to -equity to remove，The end result is that the central bank has indirectly controlled many industrial enterprises through the controlling bank and financial institutions。This is the same as forming a unique central bank oligarchy，Avoid the intense passive deleveraging process of the United States and Europe。

Current，Under the normal economic normal，To maintain or even increase the possibility of technical transition，You need to maintain a longer -term、Loose fiscal and monetary policy environment，Loose fiscal and monetary policy environment，Is a practical countermeasure。bet365 best casino games The pressure on the micro -subject to resolve the rise in debt，We must vigorously promote the structural reform of the financial supply side，Reshape the layout and function of the financial industry，Methods through debt -to -equity swaps，​​Effectively stabilize the leverage when ensuring that the liquidity is relatively abundant。

　(The author is a professor at the School of Economics of Xiamen University)