How to strengthen the coordination and cooperation of countercyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies,Keep the bottom line of preventing systemic risks,Is an important issue that needs to be solved urgently。bet365 games are important investment and financing institutions at the national level,Both policy and market aspects,It is also a supporting extension of fiscal policy,It is also the transmission channel of monetary policy,Has unique advantages in coordinating fiscal and monetary policies。Facing increasing uncertainty at home and abroad,Difficulties and challenges in the increasingly complex economic and financial environment,bet365 games should strengthen countercyclical adjustments,Share financial pressure,Improving the transmission efficiency of monetary policy,Promote social funds to invest in new infrastructure construction、New urbanization construction and transportation、Water conservancy and other major engineering construction fields,Stimulate new momentum of endogenous economic growth。
Current,The macroeconomic situation is not optimistic,Internal shocks and external shocks are intertwined,Brings huge challenges to my country’s fiscal and monetary bet365 games choices。A series of fiscal and monetary bet365 games “combinations” launched in the first half of 2020,Effectively alleviated the negative impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on our country’s economy,But there are also some problems that need to be solved during the implementation process。
First,There are structural contradictions in the process of "widening credit"。Since this year,The People’s Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio three times and arranged a special re-lending and re-discount quota,Release 3.55 trillion yuan is used to support epidemic prevention and control。Inter-bank money market interest rates hit a new low at the end of May,The growth rate of social financing scale has increased from 10% at the beginning of the year.7% up to 12 at the end of May.5%。The monetary bet365 games has basically realized the "wide monetary bet365 games"、The bet365 games goal of “widening credit”。However,Some structural contradictions also emerged in the process of "widening credit",Such as investment、Consumption、Industrial added value、PPI and other indicators are not ideal,Indicates that the effective demand for financing is still not strong。State-owned enterprises、The growth rate of fixed asset investment of real estate companies has rebounded rapidly,The growth rate of fixed asset investment of private small and micro enterprises severely affected by the epidemic has rebounded slowly。In addition,Since May,Second-hand housing transaction prices in some cities have begun to rise,The scale of corporate structural deposits continues to increase,The stock market is rising strongly,There are signs of idling funds。The emergence of these problems all reflects that the transmission channels of monetary bet365 games to the real economy, especially key areas and weak links, still need to be cleared。
Secondly,Conflict and contradiction between internal equilibrium and external equilibrium goals。A flexible exchange rate mechanism is a stabilizer to respond to external shocks and achieve internal and external balance,We must coordinate the balance between internal equilibrium and external equilibrium,Need to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level。First half of this year,Affected by the epidemic,Countries have a sharp increase in demand for US dollar liquidity,Causing a “dollar shortage” in the international market,The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar shows a volatile and depreciating trend。The uncertainty faced by the exchange rate restricts the flexibility of monetary bet365 games adjustment。As for the domestic aspect,The issuance of special national bonds and local bonds is rigid,Require monetary bet365 games to create a good liquidity environment for government bond issuance。Contradiction between external impact and internal rigid demand,Making it more difficult to coordinate fiscal and monetary policies at the operational level。
Finally,The contradiction between countercyclical adjustment and risk prevention and control。In recent years,my country’s government and corporate debt ratios are at a relatively high level among developing countries,The sudden epidemic brought the early prudent deleveraging to an end,Turn to support small and micro private enterprises that have been greatly affected by the epidemic。Affected by the economic downturn、Land revenue decreases、Tax reduction and fee reduction and other multiple impacts,Our government’s fiscal revenue is growing slowly,Negative growth under the impact of the epidemic,The expansion of fiscal spending has caused the government sector’s leverage ratio to rise again。At the same time,Fiscal bet365 games transmission channels are limited,There are shortcomings in identifying market information。Commercial banks provide the necessary liquidity to rescue small, medium and micro enterprises with the support of monetary bet365 games,And bear the resulting credit risk。Can monetary bet365 games preferences cover the risk losses borne by banks,Uncertainty remains,Restricts the implementation effect of the bet365 games。Moderate countercyclical adjustments can help prevent and control risks to a certain extent,But excessive countercyclical adjustment will increase risks。The contradictory relationship between counter-cyclicality and risk control,Requesting the implementation of countercyclical adjustment policies,Whether from the macro level or the micro level,Both need to be promoted prudently。
The sources of contradictions in the countercyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies,It depends on the types of policy transmission channels、Level、The structure still has defects,While repairing market failures,It may also lead to market distortion of resource allocation,Harm the sustainable development of the economy。The inherent countercyclicality in the operating mechanism of bet365 games determines that they are an important transmission channel for countercyclical adjustment policies。September 2019,The Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting,Emphasis on “giving full play to the countercyclical regulatory role of policy financial institutions in economic transformation and upgrading and high-quality development”。This shows that bet365 games are indispensable in the implementation of countercyclical adjustment policies,We must pay attention to the outstanding role of small and medium-sized banks in supporting private small and micro enterprises,We must also pay attention to the importance of bet365 games in supporting infrastructure construction。
bet365 games must grasp the central task of countercyclical adjustment,Highlight functional advantages,Promote the optimization and upgrading of economic structure,Maximize the effectiveness of countercyclical adjustment。First, highlight functional advantages,Intensify countercyclical adjustment。The operating mechanism of bet365 games contains countercyclicality。Looking from the liability side of bet365 games,Under the economic downturn,Commercial banks choose asset-light、Capital-light business model,Driving increased investment demand,Reduce the financing costs of bet365 games。From the asset side,bet365 games invest in domestic infrastructure、Foreign trade development and "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" are the business scope,Highly overlaps with the key areas of countercyclical adjustment,To protect people’s basic life、Absorbing employment、Stable investment is of great significance。In addition,bet365 games carry out long-term bank-government cooperation,Have unique information advantages in related fields,In the context of credit contraction,By building a credit structure and risk sharing mechanism,Effectively control credit risk。The unique operating mechanism and operating characteristics of bet365 games determine that they should play a pioneering and exemplary role in countercyclical adjustment。
The second is to maintain a moderate total amount,Structural optimization。In terms of business scope,The functional boundaries of bet365 games are subject to policies and regulations、Sustainable business principles、Limited by multiple factors such as risk compensation mechanism,Need to make dynamic adjustments according to economic development。In scale,bet365 games must control the scale and pace of capital investment,Strictly follow the total monetary policy control requirements。At the micro-operation level,Pay attention to the safety and liquidity of operations,Enhance the authenticity of the project、Compliance Review,While exerting its countercyclical adjustment function,Keep the bottom line of preventing systemic risks。We should adhere to the starting point of maintaining capital and making small profits while transferring profits to entities,Attach importance to loan projects to promote consumption、Promote employment、Promote the comprehensive benefits of industrial upgrading,Continuously optimize the loan structure,Realizing the unification of economic and social benefits。
The third is to focus on “two new and one important”,Promote high-quality development。The 2020 Government Work Report proposes to expand effective investment,Focus on supporting the "two new and one heavy" construction that not only promotes consumption and benefits people's livelihood, but also adjusts the structure to increase stamina。The “two new and one important” support areas highly overlap with the functional scope of bet365 games,Is an important focus for bet365 games to play a countercyclical adjustment role,These areas have huge investment、Long term、Uncertain income and other characteristics,It is often an area where commercial banks are less involved。bet365 games have been working hard in the “two new and one important” fields for a long time,Has information advantage、Customer resources and rich experience。In emerging industries,We must play a leading role,Do a good job in market construction in emerging fields and provide financing support,Select and cultivate a group of competitive high-tech enterprises。In the field of traditional infrastructure,Innovation in investment and loan linkage should be combined with actual conditions、New model of cooperation between government and social capital,Guide and drive social capital to participate in the construction of “two new and one important”。We must actively respond to government needs,Strengthen bank-government cooperation,Provide matching funds for key projects supported by local debt funds,Form effective coordination with fiscal policy。We must actively seek support from the central bank’s targeted monetary policy,Leverage bet365 games’ investment areas to be precise、The advantages of strict capital supervision,Enable structural monetary policy tools to achieve precise docking of "two new and one heavy",Improving the transmission efficiency of monetary policy。
(Author’s unit: School of Finance, Renmin University of bet365 games)
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