The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly stated,Accelerate the construction of a domestic circulation as the main body、A new development pattern in which domestic and international dual cycles promote each other。The RMB bet365 ohio promo code is the key link for smooth internal and external circulation。Therefore,The People's Bank of China has clearly declared that it will enhance the flexibility of the RMB bet365 ohio promo code,Promote the reform of the RMB bet365 ohio promo code formation mechanism,To more effectively function as an automatic stabilizer of the bet365 ohio promo code。
How to enhance the flexibility of the RMB bet365 ohio promo code?How to build and exert its automatic stabilizer function?Coefficient of variation display that eliminates dimensional influence,After two bet365 ohio promo code system reforms,The changes in the domestic foreign bet365 ohio promo code have generally been consistent with the average levels of major international currencies such as Europe and the United States;But the coefficient of variation of returns is much lower than that of the international market,May be closely related to the elasticity quality of the RMB bet365 ohio promo code。From global experience,Effectively enhancing the flexibility of the RMB bet365 ohio promo code requires balancing the following four aspects。
The bet365 ohio promo code level and bet365 ohio promo code elasticity of exchange reform goals
Developing countries attach great importance to finding the equilibrium bet365 ohio promo code level of their own currencies。They try to simulate and predict their country’s equilibrium bet365 ohio promo code by building models using a series of economic variables and historical empirical data,In order to better safeguard the country’s economic interests in the process of globalization,The reason may be related to the fact that academic circles are concerned about the overdetermination of bet365 ohio promo code levels and insufficient bet365 ohio promo code flexibility。Purchasing Power Parity Theory、Balance of Payments、Interest rate parity theory、Asset market theory and others are classic theories on how currency bet365 ohio promo code levels are determined,Provides us with empirical judgment,That is, there is indeed an equilibrium bet365 ohio promo code for any currency。But due to the complex factors that determine the equilibrium bet365 ohio promo code,Not only numerous but also time-varying,Therefore the equilibrium bet365 ohio promo code is also changing。
bet365 ohio promo code flexibility is different,It is an intrinsic property of the movement of the equilibrium bet365 ohio promo code level,With automatic stabilization function。The objective existence plays an important and fundamental role in a country's participation in the international optimal allocation of economic resources。However, two conditions are required for this elastic effect to work: first, the elastic limit。Exceed this limit,It is difficult for a country’s equilibrium bet365 ohio promo code to automatically stabilize。Second, it is not subject to external interference,That is, the external force exerted on the bet365 ohio promo code can exactly offset the damping force。To take advantage of the automatic stabilization function of bet365 ohio promo code flexibility,It is necessary to create and maintain these two necessary conditions。
For this reason,Place bet365 ohio promo code flexibility in a more important position than bet365 ohio promo code level,Realizing a shift in focus from pursuing a balanced bet365 ohio promo code to enhancing bet365 ohio promo code flexibility,To alleviate the trouble of always finding the equilibrium bet365 ohio promo code。Looking at the history of bet365 ohio promo code changes,Although the RMB bet365 ohio promo code level against the US dollar will drop from 6 in a few months in 2022.3 changes to 7.3 hours,China’s economy can still withstand changes in bet365 ohio promo code levels due to its strong resilience,But in order to better play the role of bet365 ohio promo code as an automatic stabilizer in the development of the national economy,We must firmly pursue the path of enhancing the flexibility of the RMB bet365 ohio promo code,In order to guide the optimal allocation of resources in the domestic and international dual cycles with higher quality。
Single indicator and multi-dimensional elasticity measurement
Many developing countries are accustomed to using single indicators such as changes in bet365 ohio promo code levels to measure and compare bet365 ohio promo code elasticity,Few economies measure their bet365 ohio promo code elasticity in multiple dimensions。The reason may be related to the many and complicated measurement methods of bet365 ohio promo code elasticity in academia、There is no unified standard about it。Currently,The academic community has reached a consensus on the concept and connotation of bet365 ohio promo code flexibility,That is, MacKinnon’s definition: bet365 ohio promo code elasticity is the variability of the bet365 ohio promo code。Many scholars try to measure bet365 ohio promo code elasticity from different aspects,Designing variance based on statistics and econometrics、Standard deviation、Conditional heteroskedasticity、Root mean square error and many other indicators and methods for measuring bet365 ohio promo code elasticity。
Originally, these methods pointed out the direction for developing countries to enhance bet365 ohio promo code flexibility,But in practice, relevant countries avoid important matters and ignore minor matters、Just as the name implies,Think bet365 ohio promo code flexibility means relaxing restrictions,The elasticity is the amount of change in the bet365 ohio promo code level。In fact,bet365 ohio promo code elasticity is like motion in physics,It is a special movement in which the equilibrium bet365 ohio promo code can be automatically stabilized。Indicators for measuring motion in physics are multi-dimensional,Displacement and distance exist、Different levels such as speed and velocity。Same,Indicators measuring bet365 ohio promo code elasticity should also be multi-level,It is necessary to have indicators that reflect changes in bet365 ohio promo code levels,There must also be indicators that reflect changes in bet365 ohio promo code changes and bet365 ohio promo code changes。Otherwise,It is difficult to accurately grasp the development level of a country’s bet365 ohio promo code flexibility by only using a single indicator to measure and evaluate bet365 ohio promo code flexibility。
For this reason,We must learn to use multiple dimensions to achieve all aspects、Assess and test the development level of domestic RMB bet365 ohio promo code flexibility from multiple perspectives。Abandon the practice of using only a single indicator to measure bet365 ohio promo code elasticity,Move to multi-level、Multidimensional、Comprehensive indicators。On this basis,Find the gaps and shortcomings that restrict domestic bet365 ohio promo code flexibility through international comparison。
Flexibility:Administrative intervention and market mechanism
The bet365 ohio promo code flexibility depends on the formation of its internal elasticity mechanism。But the relevant literature still only focuses on the analysis of intervention mechanisms,All analyze foreign exchange reserves from the perspective of central bank intervention、The impact mechanism of policy tools such as money supply and interest rates on bet365 ohio promo code flexibility。As mentioned before,There are many factors that affect a country’s bet365 ohio promo code flexibility,The elasticity similar to a spring is limited by the material、Thickness、Length and shape, etc.,Not only affected by central bank intervention factors,There are also factors from economic fundamentals、An organic combination of market factors and a series of mechanisms,Can be called the three major mechanisms of bet365 ohio promo code flexibility。Their mechanisms of action on bet365 ohio promo code elasticity are different,Non-exclusive and irreplaceable,Together constitute the dynamic bet365 ohio promo code elasticity determination system。The fundamental mechanism reflects the impact of bet365 ohio promo code changes on a country’s economy、Response mechanism to changes in trade and international capital flows,Is the basis for determining bet365 ohio promo code flexibility。The market mechanism reflects the reaction mechanism of bet365 ohio promo code changes to changes in domestic and foreign foreign exchange markets,Reflects the premise for the formation of bet365 ohio promo code flexibility。The intervention mechanism refers to the bet365 ohio promo code flexibility on related macro-control variables such as money supply、Reaction mechanism of changes in interest rates and foreign exchange reserves,Follow Hooke’s Law,Reflects the bet365 ohio promo code control method and control efficiency。Only when the three are organically unified can a country's foreign bet365 ohio promo code produce an automatic stabilizer function。
However,The bet365 ohio promo code flexibility mechanism of most developing countries is quite fragile,The reason is that the fixed bet365 ohio promo code system was basically implemented before,Peg the local currency to a certain foreign currency value, so there is no flexibility in the local currency bet365 ohio promo code。After the implementation of the managed floating bet365 ohio promo code system,Although some countries have gradually relaxed restrictions on bet365 ohio promo code fluctuations of their currencies relative to major foreign currencies,But the micro-foundation of local currency fluctuations is still fragile,The micro-level motivation for bet365 ohio promo code flexibility is still insufficient。This is an attempt by some scholars to construct elasticity indicators based on the concept of economic elasticity to evaluate a country's elasticity mechanism,The reason why the results always hit a wall。So,Some developing countries implement managed floating bet365 ohio promo code systems,In order to strengthen the prevention of risks of bet365 ohio promo code changes on the basis of enhancing bet365 ohio promo code flexibility。However, some strategies in practice make it necessary to continue to adopt the practice of fixed bet365 ohio promo code period,The bet365 ohio promo code level is still converted according to the bet365 ohio promo code of a certain currency (group);bet365 ohio promo code fluctuations still come from the administrative power of regulatory authorities。The results always show huge deviations when the bet365 ohio promo code changes to a certain extent,Having to carry out further human intervention。
For this reason,Pay attention to the construction of flexible mechanisms,Reduce reliance on administrative intervention mechanisms,Realize the transition to indirect regulation as soon as possible。The development of bet365 ohio promo code flexibility depends on the formation of three major elastic mechanisms,Among them, the market mechanism is the most basic。In the process of building a market mechanism,Cannot be limited to relying on the anchor effect (or basket effect) to determine the domestic bet365 ohio promo code level,The focus should be on cultivating the self-regulation mechanism of the domestic foreign exchange market to promote the formation of a dynamic mechanism for bet365 ohio promo code flexibility as soon as possible。
Resilience building: dollar elasticity and non-dollar elasticity
China’s domestic bet365 ohio promo code system reform originated on July 21, 2005,It has experienced two important stages of development so far。The first phase is from July 21, 2005 to August 10, 2015,The main feature is to quickly relax the floating limit of non-US dollar exchange rates to ±3%,Later, the US dollar range limit will be gradually relaxed to ±2%,Hope to enhance bet365 ohio promo code flexibility。The second phase is from August 11, 2015 to present,Mainly strengthening the market maker system,Focus on cultivating the US dollar bet365 ohio promo code formation mechanism。Obviously,There is still a big gap between the current specific bet365 ohio promo code flexibility mechanism construction and the requirements for building a new development pattern。
Most developing countries are willing to borrow the anchor effect research method,Use freely convertible third-country currencies (especially the U.S. dollar) to measure the international impact of the local currency,Or calculate the value of the local currency against the US dollar through the currency basket。Few developing countries have developed a flexible bet365 ohio promo code mechanism based on the characteristics of their own economic transformation。In fact,Most developing countries’ foreign exchange markets are not only lagging behind in overall development,And the pace of foreign exchange bet365 ohio promo code reform is not synchronized。The central bank must grasp the flexibility of the local currency bet365 ohio promo code,Cannot just focus on the US dollar and ignore the variability of non-USD exchange rates。
For this reason,To eliminate the bias of ignoring the elasticity of non-USD exchange rates,Elevating the flexibility of domestic major non-US dollar foreign exchange rates to a position as important as the US dollar。As a big country,China’s economic development faces different countries around the world,Diversified international bet365 ohio promo code flexibility is an important guarantee for all-round sharing of international economic benefits。At the same time,As a developing country,my country is enhancing the flexibility of the RMB bet365 ohio promo code,We cannot only focus on the US dollar and ignore the bet365 ohio promo code flexibility of non-US dollars,Both types of foreign exchange bet365 ohio promo code flexibility should be fully developed。
(The author is a professor at the Department of International Finance, Fudan University;Researcher at the Institute of Applied Economics, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)
Friendly links:
Website registration number: Beijing Public Network Security No. 11010502030146 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology:
All rights reserved by China Social Sciences Magazine. No reproduction or use without permission is allowed
Chief editor’s email: zzszbj@126.com Contact information of this website: 010-85886809 Address: Floor 11-12, Building 1, No. 15 Guanghua Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing Postal Code: 100026
>