Japanese economic bubble and "Asset -liability Table Tap"

Gu Chaoming explained the logic process of the economic recession after the breakdown of Japanese stocks and real estate bubbles since the 1990s after the 1990s.。In the case of a severe asset bubble，The contracted monetary policy of the Central Bank of Japan leads to breaking bubble。Asset prices plummeted so that corporate liabilities are greater than assets，The entire economy falls into the decline of the balance sheet，Enterprises have changed from profit maximization model to liability minimization mode，The government's fiscal policy of the government's failure to turn to expansion due to monetary policy。Push over time，Enterprise finally completes debt repayment，The decline of the balance sheet ends。But because the company still has conflict with debt，Economic activities are sluggish。

When demonstrating that the existence of "balance sheet decline" in Japan，Gu Chaoming mainly quoted the following examples Bet365 app download and data。First，Japan has fallen in real estate and stock prices since 1990，Leading wealth loss at 15 million yen，equivalent to the total domestic product of 3 years in Japan。Second，When the asset price plummeted，The loan amount used to buy these assets did not change，Large "holes"。third，Japanese companies have not only stopped applying for new loans since 1995，Regardless of the short -term interest rate of almost zero, the original loan is repaid。Due to busy repayment of debt，From the perspective of overall，By 1998, Japanese companies have become a net savings。

Gu Chaoming believes，The theory of "Liability Taleture" theory is a challenge to the current macroeconomics。He pointed out: "Economists never pay attention to the asset -liability statement of a single enterprise。None of the important macroeconomics textbooks have pointed out，Enterprises in the dilemma of the balance sheet will change to find liabilities to minimize。"He also believes:" The concept of the decline of the balance sheet spans the bottom line that Kanes cannot or is unwilling to cross，It recognizes the possibility of the company's pursuit of liabilities at some point。… From this to a comprehensive economic theory，Perhaps it is the 'Holy Grail' of Macroeconomics that we have pursued since the 1930s。” 

Analysis of the balance sheet is auxiliary rather than alternative

But，The analysis method of the balance sheet has many problems and deficiencies in itself。First，Analysis method of balance sheet is a micro analysis method，If it is used as a macroeconomic analysis method，There are individuals and total amount、Local and overall differences。Each enterprise has its own balance sheet，The asset -liability table of different enterprises is different，If the balance sheet of some enterprises is derived from the asset -liability statement of all enterprises，It is easy to occur in synthetic reasoning errors。Second，Analysis method of asset liabilities is an stock analysis method，Various assets and liabilities are all the stocks at a certain point。If you use it to analyze macroeconomic flow，Be careful to avoid logic errors。Later Keynesist economist Lei called residents and enterprises as private sector，He obtained from the analysis method of the balance sheet，The net liabilities of government departments are equal to the net assets of the private sector。This conclusion is right from the stock of a certain point point，But Lei from the device that must be used by government departments to create the surplus of the private sector，The horizontal financial wealth relationship between the private and government departments does not reflect the creation of their vertical financial bet365 best casino games wealth。third，The analysis method of the balance sheet lacks support for an accounting system。Thunder ideas existing residents、Enterprise、Government's total asset -liability form，Gu Chaoming also imagined that there is an asset -liability form with a total of the enterprise increased，But it's just a inference，It does not exist in the real economy。So，When analyzing the macroeconomic economy with the analysis of the balance sheet analysis method，often lack of support for actual statistical data。But when an economist adopts the total demand analysis method，The national economic accounting system can clearly reveal the components of the total demand, such as consumer demand、Investment demand、Government needs、The actual changes in the demand for net exports。This is the most important difference between the macroeconomic analysis method and the asset liability table analysis method。

Of course，Analysis method of balance sheet has its innovative significance。Macroeconomic analysis needs to be based on micro -economic analysis，Analysis method of asset -liabilities can be with other micro -economic analysis methods，Know certain macroeconomic phenomena from the economic behavior of the micro -subject。So，Analysis of the asset -liability table for macroeconomic analysis is the relationship of assistance，Not a relationship of opposition，Not to the relationship for alternative。

Theoretical defects of "The decline of the balance sheet"

At the same time，The theory of "Assets and Modes" proposed by Gu Chaoming has logical problems in several links。

First，Repair this link in the asset depreciation to the balance sheet，Gu Chaoming did not propose a clear definition of the restoration of the balance sheet。If you understand it as the adjustment of the company's debt items in the case of asset impairment，So at least two types of enterprises must be distinguished: one is an enterprise that deeply participate in stocks and real estate speculation，In the case of depreciation of stocks and real estate，You need to try to repay the expiration or the upcoming loan; the other is an enterprise that has not participated or involved in stock and real estate speculation，Motid financial assets and real estate value on the balance sheet，Corresponding to the owner's rights and interests，It does not necessarily affect liabilities。As for how to adjust assets and liabilities under actual situation，It will be selected by the enterprise，It is not an inevitable choice for "balance sheet repair"。So，Stocks and real estate depreciations on the impact of corporate balance sheets are very different，If you use a "balance sheet repair" with an unknown bet365 best casino games semantics，The behavior of the whole or most enterprises with the behavior of a certain type of enterprise，It is suspected of "synthetic reasoning fallacy"。

Regarding this problem, you may use actual statistical data to test。According to the estimation of Gu Chaoming， 1990-1994 Japanese stock and real estate prices declined, resulting in huge value loss，and the amount of value of these two types of value expands year by year。Because the bank was first impacted that year，Gu Chaoming's use of corporate loan rates to indicate the impact of the "balance sheet repair" is inaccurate，Because the company can turn to the currency market or the bond market to raise funds。Statistics based on the International Monetary Fund，The debt rate of Japanese non -financial enterprises (ie, corporate debt/GDP) from 134%in 1989 to 145%in 1994，Subsequently decrease。This means，5 years of the depreciation of stocks and real estate leads to the "balance sheet repair"，The relative debt scale of non -financial enterprises has been rising。

2，Repairing from the asset liability statement to the link of reducing borrowing from enterprises，Some companies involved in real estate speculation need to carry out the "balance sheet repair"，Repair the loan expired and it is difficult to borrow new loans，Total borrowing will be reduced，This situation is existing，But it may not be the main reason for the reduction of corporate loans。Under the circumstances where the economy is discovered or expected to fall into a decline，Enterprise's investment demand will be reduced，Under the influence of the shrinkage of total demand，The corresponding borrowing demand will also be reduced。Gu Chaoming still reluctant to borrow money or even repay in advance under interest rates for interest rates，I believe that the current macroeconomic analysis cannot be explained。Actually，When the enterprise is making investment decisions，Not only should we consider interest rates，Also consider the expected profit margin。If the expected profit margin is negative，Even if the interest rate is zero，It is also difficult to increase the investment and borrowing of enterprises。

third，"Maximizing Profit" and "Liability to the Minimum" is more explanatory? Gu Chaoming attaches great importance to the principle of "minimum debt"，It seems that through the "minimum liability" principle, you can touch the "Holy Grail" of macroeconomics。But the regrettable is，The concept of "minimum debt" 焉 unknown。For example，What is "the smallest"? Zero liabilities are minimum，Still liabilities that meet a certain condition to minimize，Or minimize the debt as much as possible? Gu Chaoming did not give bet365 Play online games a clear answer。Another example，In the 15 -year economic recession period after the Japanese economic bubble ruptured by Gu Chaoming，The debt rate of Japanese non -financial companies rose from 134%in 1989 to 145%in 1994，dropped to 99%in 2004，Ascend to 107%in 2009，Then drop to 94%in 2015，How can this reflect the principle of "minimizing debt"? on the contrary，The principle of "maximizing profit" explains the situation of corporate borrowing fluctuations。The principle of "maximizing profit" is also the principle of minimizing loss，refers to the ability to maximize profits or minimize losses under the conditions of the corporate income equal to marginal cost (MR = mc)。After the breakdown of the Japanese economic bubble，For companies that can still make profits，To achieve the maximum profit，It may increase debt and investment; for companies that encounter losses，To achieve the minimum loss，It may shrink debts and investment; for bankruptcy companies，Only auction assets repay debt。The impact of corporate behavior on the macro economy depends on the net results of various microeconomic activities，If the latter two situations occupy a considerable proportion，The contraction of the scale of corporate liabilities is not surprising。

Fourth，Is the total demand contraction or the "minimum debt" leads to economic recession? Gu Chaoming explained that the logic of the economic recession caused by the breakdown of the Japanese economic bubble was: asset depreciation → the repairs of the balance sheet → the minimum of the corporate turnover liabilities → the economy fell into decline。Actually，Japanese stocks and real estate prices have fallen from 1990，The growth rate of the final consumption demand of residents has declined significantly since 1991，but still a positive number; residential investment、Equipment investment、Inventory investment growth rates became negative in 1992; the actual domestic GDP growth rate decreased from 3.4%in 1991 to 0.8%of 1992、1993-0.5%、0.9%in 1994，The economy gradually falls into recession。But the debt rate of Japanese non -financial companies has risen from 139%in 1990 to 145%in 1994，It did not begin to decline until 1995。Visible，Japan's economic recession is caused by multiple reasons: the impairment of residential assets or the expected expectations of residential assets will reduce consumption demand，The sharp decline in real estate prices caused a decline in real estate investment，The outbreak of the bank crisis caused the loss of residents and enterprises and caused bank credit contraction，The decrease in profit margins in the company leads to a decrease in investment demand，etc.。Of course，Enterprise Bet365 app download "Assets Liability Table Repair" will also lead to a reduction in corporate debt contraction and investment demand，This impact may be very large in some cases。So，Analysis of the asset -liability table can explain the economic recession from one perspective or one aspect，But the so -called "balance sheet decline" is not the main cause of economic recession caused by economic bubble rupture。

Gu Chaoming believes，The balance sheet is the blind spot of the current macroeconomic analysis，Because the latter is built on the assumption of the asset -liability statement of each enterprise。Indeed，The current macroeconomic analysis rarely pays attention to the impact of corporate behavior on the macro economy from the perspective of the balance sheet，This is the contribution of some economists including Gu Chaoming。but，Keynes mainly studies the economic equilibrium that is less than full employment，How can it assume that the balance sheet of each enterprise is healthy?

　　"China Plan" dedicated to the Chinese situation

Recent，Gu Chaoming recruited Japan's "Decays of Assets Liabilities"，Analysis of China's economic situation，Then it caused heated discussion in all sectors of China。In recent years，There is a certain bubble in my country's real estate market，Similar to the real estate market before the Japanese economic bubble ruptured in 1989。But it should be pointed out，my country's situation is different from the original Japan。First，In the formation stage of real estate bubble，The Chinese government has not led the real estate price to rise too quickly，Always adopted various policies and measures to suppress the expansion of the real estate market foam。Under the strong regulation of the government，my country's real estate price has remained relatively stable since 2017。At the same time，At present, there is no bubble in my country's stock market.。Second，Real estate development、Construction and operation involved the real estate industry and some construction industries，In addition to the construction of a house, the construction industry also includes construction related infrastructure。In 1995，The proportion of the added value of the Japanese construction industry and the real estate industry is 8.6%and 11.3%of the domestic GDP, respectively，19.9%; in 2022，The proportion of the added value of my country's construction and real estate industry in the GDP is 6.9%and 6.1%, respectively，Total 13.0%。Even after the large -scale development of real estate will enter a stable period，The impact on my country's macro economy is also relatively small。third，my country ’s per capita per capita domestic product in 2022 is 12741 US dollars，Far Bet365 lotto review below Japan's per capita domestic GDP of $ 2,5900。With the growth of my country's per capita GDP，The income of residents continues to increase，Resident consumption power and consumer demand will also increase significantly，There is still a lot of demand space for my country's economic development。Fourth，Under the socialist market economy system，The Chinese government has always played a key role，Strong macro -control ability to the economy，The ability to prevent the systemic risk represented by real estate bubbles on the national economy is adversely affected。Especially the recently held the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has clearly requested to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas，and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market as the top priority of the current and next work，This has laid a solid foundation for promoting the continuous recovery of my country's economy。

　　(The author is a professor at the School of Economics and Industry Administration of Beijing Normal University)