Recent，Gu Chaoming, chief economist of the Institute of Nomura Comprehensive Research Institute, has aroused heated discussion among the parties。He said publicly at the end of June，If the real estate bubble is broken，China may face the risk of decline in the balance sheet。For this risk，The "prescription" issued by Gu Chaoming is，Don't waste time in the reform of monetary policy and structural reform，Instead, it is necessary to make fiscal policy greatly。

So，What is the decline of the balance sheet? Gu Chaoming pointed out in his book "Great Recession: The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics"，This recession usually occurs after severe asset price bubbles。Due to the expansion of a country's enterprises，I bought a lot of assets in debt，With the damage of the asset price bubble，The value of the liabilities of these corporate balance sheets is unchanged，and the value of the asset side is seriously shrinking，Make the enterprise facing the situation of inconsistent debt。But，There is no problem with the production and operation of these companies，can still get normal operating income。Therefore，The production and operation goals of these enterprises will be changed from "maximum profit" to "liability minimize"，Use subsequent operating income to repay the previous liabilities。If a large number of companies take this line as，will lead to synthesis fallavation，That is, the demand for borrowing of the enterprise department is shrinking、Currency multiplier drops sharply，Then there is a continuous negative gap in the total demand。If there is no government Bet365 lotto review at this time, it provides additional demand through expansion fiscal policy，Then this economy will fall into the protracted decline。The above recession is a typical balance sheet decline。

Why can't the monetary policy respond to the decline of the balance sheet? This is because，If the company's operating target has changed from profit maximum to liability，So before the company repaid the previous liabilities，Even if the borrowing interest rate drops to zero，The company has no motivation to borrow new debt，It means that the conduction mechanism of monetary policy is basically invalid。Gu Chaoming pointed out，This is actually the micro foundation of Kanes's so -called "liquidity trap"。

How can we get out of the balance sheet? Gu Chaoming thinks，Fiscal policy must play the only important role。When all enterprises are committed to repayment of debts and even negative total demand gaps，The government must make a shot to make up for this lack of mouth，to avoid a significant decline in economic growth。This means that a government must raise funds through the issuance of government bonds，Then implement expansion fiscal policy。From the perspective of increasing effective demand，Increasing fiscal expenditure is more important than tax reduction，Because tax cuts may increase the family's increase in savings instead of consumption。

Facing the complex and severe international situation and the arduous and heavy domestic reform, development and stability tasks，China GDP increased by 5.5%year -on -year in the first half of 2023，Economic presentation rises to a good situation，But still facing greater pressure。First，Inflation indicators are obviously down，The pressure of currency tightening gradually increases。June bet365 Play online games 2023，Resident consumer price index (CPI) growth rate is 0.0%，Producer price index (PPI) growth rate is only -5.4%year-on-year，and the latter has been growing negatively for 9 consecutive months。2，The pressure of unemployment of young people。June 2023，The unemployment rate of the whole society is 5.2%，Among them, the unemployment rate of young people aged 16-24 reached 21.3%，Creating historic peak。third，Consumption、Investment and export "Trovy Carriage" performance is not as good as expected。June 2023，The total retail sales growth rate of consumer goods is 3.1%year -on -year，significantly below 12.7%below May; the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment is 3.8%，Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment is only -7.9%，and the latter has grown negatively for 14 consecutive months; the export volume and imports of US dollars in US dollars are -12.4%and -6.8%, respectively.。fourth，Full performance of financial indicators。Narrow currency supply (M1) in June 2023 was only 3.1%year -on -year，This is the lowest point since January 2022。False concern，Although the current foundation of China's continued recovery and development is still unstable，but did not face the decline of the balance sheet。

First，The decline of the balance sheet is usually caused by a serious asset price bubble，and China has not experienced significant asset price bubbles so far。The rupture of the Japanese economic bubble originated from the double frustration of the real estate market price and the stock price。But the current Chinese real estate price and stock price do not have the basis for significant declines。For the Chinese real estate market，a、The real estate market in the second -tier bet365 live casino games cities still face strong real needs，The current policy of restrictions on loans is not completely canceled。As for three、Real Estate Market in the fourth -tier cities，If a creative policy is adopted to meet the housing needs of migrant workers entering the city，can effectively alleviate the pressure that is too required。For example，Local governments by cost bonus，Buy a commercial house from the developer，Then convert it into low -rent housing and public rental housing，It can digest the inventory of commercial housing，You can also meet the housing needs of migrant workers and young people without having to be constructed。Of course，It is worth noting that it is，Since 2021，A series of new real estate regulatory policies (for the "three red lines" policy for the real estate developer's balance sheet、Strengthening the centralized management of commercial bank loans, etc.) Some are too severe，The recent adjustment of the Chinese government will adjust it，It is a very wise behavior。

Next，From the perspective of perspective，Chinese enterprise departments have not fallen into the long -lasting "deleveraging" process。From the end of 2008 to the end of March 2023，The leverage ratio of China's non -financial enterprise sector rose from 95.2%to 167.0%。Although this indicator dropped from 165.3%in June 2020 to 154.1%in December 2021，But from early 2022 to the present，Show continuously rising again。Indeed，Compared to state -owned enterprises，The leverage rate of private enterprises has declined in recent years，But this is not that all private enterprises are unwilling to borrow。For example，Restrictions on the "Three Red Line" policy of the balance sheet，China's real estate development bet365 best casino games enterprises have encountered financing difficulties since 2021，Private enterprises are the main forces of Chinese real estate developers。In other words，It is the industry regulatory policy that limits private enterprises financing，instead of private enterprises actively "deleveraging"。

again，The current Chinese economy has not fallen into the so -called "liquidity trap"，Loose monetary policy still has higher policy effectiveness。The so -called liquidity trap，refers to how the central bank cuts interest rates，Residents are not willing to consume，Enterprises are unwilling to invest。But this is not established in China。On the one hand，The reason why the residential department has a large number of early repayment phenomena，It is precisely because the current new mortgage interest rate is significantly lower than the past stock mortgage interest rate，As a result, residents have "borrowed new and old"。On the other hand，Considering that the current PPI growth rate is lower than -5%，It means that the real interest rate of corporate financing is close to 10%。In this case，To encourage enterprises to invest，The central bank must significantly reduce the nominal interest rate。In fact，Due to the long -term prudent monetary policy of the central bank，At present, there is sufficient space for the implementation of China's loose monetary policy，This is the case, regardless of the reduction or interest rate cuts。

To sum up，In the first place in China, there is no serious asset price bubble burst，Second, the Chinese corporate department has not fallen into the continuous "deleveraging" process，Three Lai China Economy has not faced liquidity traps。Analysis of China's development with the so -called "balance Bet365 app download sheet decline" theory，and take the opportunity to "sing down" the Chinese economy，It is not objective and not comprehensive enough，How can the effect of the "prescription" from this is worthy of vigilance。

Current，China's economic growth faces two aspects of challenges。First, it is difficult to follow with the aging population and the traditional dependent investment and export to drive economic growth，The potential growth of China's economic potential continues to decline; the second is the short -term impact caused by increasing uncertain factors at home and abroad，Make China's economic growth rate significantly lower than potential growth，Continuous negative output gaps have appeared。The aforementioned inflation is low and the unemployment rate is high，is the obvious manifestation of negative output gaps。How to deal with the above challenges? on the one hand，The Chinese government must boost the Chinese economy by starting a new round of reform and opening up，Efforts to increase the potential economic growth。Related structural reforms include, but not limited to: unswervingly implement "two unshakable"，Encourage the development of the private economy; promote free flow of various elements in China，Shape the national unified market; promote education、Medical、Reform of public services such as pensions，Improve the willingness to fertility for young people; more fully utilize the demographic dividend in the context of the dividend of the population; achieve high levels of opening to the outside world under the premise of controlling risks;。On the other hand，The Chinese government should appropriately increase the expansion of fiscal and monetary policy，Eliminate negative output gaps as bet365 best casino games soon as possible。Strengthen the coordination and linkage of fiscal policy and monetary policy，Let fiscal policy play more positive and important characters。

　　(The author is deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher)