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Global Economy Warm is facing challenges

May 15, 2020 01:53 Source: "China Social Sciences", May 15, 2020, No. 1926, author: This newspaper reporter Zhao Yuan

　　Recent，European Revival Development Bank (EBRD) released the "Regional Economic Outlook" report。Report prediction，2020 European Revival Development Bank region will shrink 3.5%，It is estimated that the economy will rebound 4.8% in 2021。Report Simultaneously，Affected by the epidemic of new crown pneumonia，The above forecast is facing uncertainty。

　　Facing economic downturn

　　Economy in the European Revitalization Development Bank area will almost face economic downturn in 2020。On average，In the region, the Central Asian economy was affected by factors such as the decline in commodity prices and remittance pressure in the region.，Its economic scale will shrink 1.2%，But it is expected to rebound 5.8%。

　　Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are using existing buffer measures to stimulate Bet365 app download economic development。But，Mongolia and Tajikistan and other countries are being dragged down due to their limited financial space and excessive debt burden。

　　In the Central European and Baltic State (CEB)，Strict epidemic prevention measures include large -scale shutdown enterprises and schools，The interrupt value chain is hindering production。Weaken external demand may further delay the economic recovery。The report is expected to decrease by 4.3%for output in the area in 2020，But in 2021, there will be a strong rebound of 4.5%。Report to point out，Poland is facing huge risks，It is expected that the epidemic will have a more serious impact on domestic companies and employment in Poland。Polish economy will shrink 3.5% in 2020，2021 will increase 4.0%。

　　Report proposed，Tightened by the global financial market、Facing the impact of strong pressure and decreased export demand in the domestic foreign exchange market，Eastern Europe and Caucasian countries may be seriously affected by the epidemic of new bet365 Play online games crown pneumonia。The price of commodities fell to Azerbaijan、Ukraine and Armenia and other metal exporting countries bring additional pressure，The decline in remittance expectations will affect family disposable income。The loss of tourism income will cause a major blow to the Georgia economy。In Ukraine，Due to public health measures to curb virus transmission，Decrease in demand at home and abroad，Losses caused by the manufacturing and service industry，It is estimated that the country's economy will shrink by 4.5%，2021 will rebound 5.0%。

　　Russia is facing the dual impact of global demand contraction and restricting the rupture of the oil production agreement，These two factors together lead to a sharp decline in oil prices，and slow down economic activities。The report is estimated that the Russian economy will shrink by 4.5%in 2020，2021 will rebound 4%。，Persia and Hezonovina、North Macedonia and Serbia's manufacturing are relatively large，It is expected to be affected bet365 best casino games by the global supply chain interruption。The economy of Albania and Heishan relies on tourism，Therefore, it will be seriously affected。

　　2020，Türkiye's economic growth may be seriously affected by the epidemic，It is estimated that the GDP in 2020 will shrink 3.5%，In 2021, a strong recovery will be 6.0%。But this prediction depends to a large extent on the duration and scope of social alienation measures to control the epidemic。

　　In the southern and eastern regions of the Mediterranean Sea，The negative impact of the epidemic situation is reflected in the two aspects of trapped in tourism and the decline in domestic demand，The decline in the demand of major trading partners and the slowdown in foreign direct investment inflows will also affect the regional economy。The report is expected that the region's economy will shrink by an average of 0.8%in 2020，Bounce 4.8%in 2021。Egypt's prosperity of its public construction projects and telecommunications industry，The economy will Bet365 app download continue to grow。It is expected that the Egyptian economy will increase by 0.5%in 2020，2021 will increase 5.2%。

　　Strengthen international economic cooperation

　　National Comprehensive Leading Indicators (CLIS) is an economic indicator that is widely used to predict the economic development trend of various countries in the next 6 months。Current，This indicator is also affected by the current epidemic uncertainty。The official website of the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization Recently published an article，In April, the comprehensive leading indicators of major countries decreased significantly，The blocking measures caused by the epidemic situation can be produced、Consumption and confidence have a significant impact。In China，Gradually unblocked in various cities，Complete advancement of re -production and production，The national comprehensive leading indicators in the industrial field present a positive trend。Report considered，For long -term economic output，Epidemic impact Bet365 app download is limited，Regional economic growth is expected to recover at the end of the third quarter。

　　The chief economist at the European Renaissance Development Bank Baya Javoshik believes, In the future, we should pay more attention to international cooperation，and fully understand the importance of improving economic toughness。Jaovheck said，Countries should actively carry out international cooperation，Promoting free trade，Difficulty when you hand in hand together，Create a better future。

Editor in charge: Changchang