No container，No globalization。The author of "Container Change the World"，American economist Marc Levinson with a container as the core，Analysis of the foundation of economic globalization -modern transportation system。Recent，This reporter interviewed Lenneson on issues related to globalization。

　bet365 live casino games

"China Social Sciences": in the historical long river of human development，Globalization presents different staged features。Please talk about the evolution of globalization and related characteristics。

Lvinson:I think，Globalization began around 1830，That is the birth of industrial capitalism。Industrial Capitalism has driven international trade、The rapid growth of international investment and international loans。Globalization of this period is characterized by most economic activities with Europe as the center，other countries provide raw materials to European manufacturers，and borrow from European bankers and investors。The first globalization process ended with the outbreak of the First World War in 1914。

After two World War and Great Depression,，In the late 1940s，The world economy gradually recovers，international agreements that are designed to reduce tariffs and stabilize currency，Conditions for the second globalization。The second globalization is characterized by the increase in the trade of oil and industrial finished products，By the 1960s，The trade of these products accounts for more than half of international trade。The basic mode of the second globalization is similar to the first time，That is, most industrial finished products are produced by developed countries such as Europe and the United States。This period，The main role of many developing countries in international trade is to provide raw materials to developed countries，M & A buy its export product。These developing countries believe that international trade has exploitation，Low willingness to participate bet365 best casino games in globalization。The second globalization process ends with the debt crisis in many developing countries in the 1980s。

The third globalization appeared around 1987，different from the previous two times。The uniqueness of the third globalization is to create a complex international supply chain。Due to container transportation、The cost of electronic communication and computer technology is reduced，Manufacturers can be based on the production cost of various countries or regions，Flexible arrangement of parts of parts，Then transport all parts to other places for unified processing。This is a new way of production organization，greatly increased the growth rate of international trade。In this process，Most trade does not involve the final product，Instead, in the form of intermediate products such as chemicals and industrial components，Transfer from a factory from one country to a factory in another country。but but，The new method of industrial production also causes adverse effects to some groups。Economic law is this，Even if most people benefit from it，There are always some people's lives that have bet365 Play online games become worse for this。For example，When people start using smartphones，Millions of telephone connectors lost work，You must find new occupations。

　　Changes in the value of global supply chain

"China Social Sciences": With the further development of economic globalization，The global supply chain is also evolving。Please evaluate the changes in global supply chain value and its impact on globalization。

Lvinson:From the current point of view，The value of the global supply chain has not decreased。But，In the past 10 years，The growth rate of international trade is indeed slowed down。In my opinion，One of the main reasons to cause this is，In the past, some companies will produce industrial production from Europe、North America and Japan's factories transfer to East Asia and Southeast Asia，Promoting the rapid growth of trade。Once this transition is over，International trade growth rate will slow down。other，Another factor is，The price of many industrial finished products is declining，This is the case before the supply chain interrupted by the new crown pneumonia。That is to say，A exit container full of TVs today may not be as valuable as 20 years ago。

　　Globalization enters the new era

"China Social Sciences": in your 2020 book "Outside Box: How Globalization How Globalization does from mobile items to spreading ideas"，mentioned that globalization is entering a new era，Compared to the circulation of items，The flow of thought is obviously more important。Can you please explain this view?

Lvinson:The new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused an obstacle to the circulation of international goods。I expected，In the post -epidemic era，The growth rate of cargo trade will not be too fast。Reasons for the reason，There are three points: First of all，Unless it is outside，Most countries in the world are facing increasingly serious aging problems，The elderly often use a larger percentage of income to buy services，and less share for purchasing products。Next，The development of technology is reducing people's demand for multiple products。For example，The emergence of music stream media has caused CD and CD players to lose a lot of markets。Last，Many companies realize that some risks originated from too long supply chain，Therefore。

At the same time，The growth of intangible product bet365 best casino games trade including services and digital products is very fast。Most of these transactions involve digital exchange that statistical data cannot capture，Because the buyer and the seller did not generate a transaction record during this process。For example，An investment bank hire employees to deal with the account of London banker，Digital information needs to move from Britain to India，Back to Britain，But the official trade statistics will not record this digital exchange process。I think，We are entering the fourth globalization stage。At this stage，Service、The flow of thought will continue to grow rapidly，The movement of the container filled with the cargo becomes less important。