Existing research has designed a number of indicators to measure economic development，If GDP、Employment rate and industrial output value。But currently，It Bet365 lotto review is difficult to clearly predict whether the state is entering the economic recession period。Blane Kelly, a professor of finance at Yale University Business School, discussed a possible source of information in the latest study: News report。In order to study a large amount of fragmented information about the status of economic status in media reports, it can be converted into a new economic indicator，and predict the future economic trend，Researchers collected about 763,000 articles published on the Wall Street Journal from 1984 to 2017。Researchers calculate the number of appeared in each article through software，Then use machine learning algorithm to determine the terms that often appear with specific words，and classify and develop these terms。GreenSpan、bet365 best casino games Yellen (Yellen)、Federal Fund interest rate、The theme of the special terms such as improving interest rates is "Federal Reserve"。Another，There is also medical insurance、Natural disaster、Airlines、Election and other topics。

 

Next，Researchers detected the "News attention" of each theme，That is the text ratio of the theme in the Wall Street Journal，This can analyze how the news attention to a certain theme weakens with time.。Pay attention to specific themes through quantitative media，Researchers discovered，News attention indicators seem to be closely connected with existing economic indicators，When the attention of the "economic recession" topic increases，Industrial production growth and employment growth often decrease。When the stock market income fluctuates，bet365 live casino games accompanied by themes such as "recession" and "problem"。

 

After verifying the new indicators can be associated with other existing indicators，Researchers further explore whether the indicator can help the future performance of the economy。They analyzed whether the news attention of "economic recession" is related to the industrial production and employment changes in the next three years。Analysis results show，With the increase of the "economic recession" news,，From a long period of time，Industrial production has reduced 1.99%after 17 months，The employment rate fell 0.92%after 20 months。Short -term predictions are also very effective，2 months after the news of the news rose，Industrial production has been reduced by about 0.3%。

 

This research team also designed a method to determine the article that policy bet365 best casino games makers need to read。For example，When the software predicts that the employment rate will decline within the next few months，Plugs out the article "The Wall Street Journal" that pays most attention to the theme of "recession"。In this way, decision makers can avoid looking for information in a large number of reports，Directly obtain the most relevant report。Leland Bybee, a Ph.D. in Yale University Business School, said，This method extracts really important things，Equivalent to provide a auxiliary tool for processing information。

 

　　（Practicing Zhi Leisure/Compilation）