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　　■ July 24, 2019 local time，Incheon，Korean people protest against Japan's export control。Picture Source: CFP

G20 Group (G20) Osaka Summit just ended，Japan announced the export control of key raw material products: "fluoride amine", "light -carved glue" and "high -purity hydrogen fluoride" exported to South Korea.，Remove South Korea from the "whitelist" of the export target country。This round of "semiconductor friction" reflects the sharpness of Japan and South Korea's contradictions，It is difficult to calm the short -term，Not only does it impact on the global value chain，And it will cause direct damage to the stability and cooperation in Northeast Asia。

　　Political factors are "semiconductor friction" pusher

Current，Semiconductor has become a pillar industry in Korea。Since the 1970s，South Korea from funds、Technology、Talents and other aspects of focusing on supporting the semiconductor industry，Including the introduction of advanced production technology from Europe, America and Japan，And thereby forming a close cooperation and deep integration development pattern of Japan and South Korea in the relevant technology industry field。After the 1990s，The world market share of Japanese semiconductor products has gradually been replaced by South Korea and Taiwan, China，But still in the upper reaches of the semiconductor industry chain，Especially in semiconductor raw materials、Manufacturing equipment and other aspects are always leading positions。The above three key raw materials are examples，Japanese capacity occupies 90%of the world。South Korea, which is in the middle reaches of the industrial chain, has high international competitiveness of the industry，But there is deep dependence on Japan，Need to import raw materials and equipment from Japan to maintain production。According to statistics from the Japanese trade revitalization agency，January to May this year，Korean companies imported the above three materials from Japan to $ 140 million，Dependence reaches 91.9%, respectively、46.3%and 93.7%。

Japan claims to implement export control on South Korea based on safety -based considerations，bet365 Play online games The relevant materials that believe that the export of Korean exports may be used to make the military purpose that harmed Japanese national security such as biochemical weapons，To strengthen export censorship。The Japanese side also announced a total of 156 cases of "South Korea illegal export semiconductor raw materials"。But actually，Promoting Japan's determination to do anything about South Korea is political factors。In 2017, President Wen Zaiyin overturned the "comfort women agreement" in South Korea; the Supreme Court of South Korea was sentenced to a decision on the war of labor claims during the war.，Seal Japanese enterprises in Korean assets as compensation for workers and their families; relations between the two countries have declined all the way。Japan's dissatisfaction with South Korea continues to ferment，Promote Abe's cabinet to solve political problems with economic means，To force the Korean side to be sample。

The timing selection of the Japanese party announced the implementation of the control，highlight the domestic political purpose of this move。In late July, a regular election of the Senate in Japan，Economic and People's livelihood is the focus of attention of voters，It also affects the Liberal Democratic Party、The key to the election of the Gongming Party Governance Alliance。But from the recent situation，In the first two quarters of this year, the Japanese economy has been pulled in a troide -driving carriage，Enterprise equipment investment、Consumption appears fatigue; under the Federal Reserve interest rate cutting expectations，The Japanese yen begins to enter the appreciation channel; the consumption tax increase implemented in October will play a role in worse。Add Sino -US trade friction，Increased uncertainty risks faced by the Japanese economy，This rising cycle is likely to end in advance。Previously rumored that Prime Minister Abe in Japan had considered disbanding the House of Representatives in advance，Hold the same day with the Senate，It also confirms from the side that the Japanese official's pessimistic expectations of the mid -term economic trend。In this background，For South Korea, it is tough to transfer voters，Costing the emotion of "hate Korean"，Improve election victory。

　　Refuse the deeper contradictions of Japan and South Korea and the change of regional situation

Japan ’s demonstration against South Korea is bet365 live casino games the result of the continuous intensification of deep contradictions between the two countries in the new situation，With certain inevitability。Japan and South Korea have been resentful for a long time: After 1910 "Japan and South Korea Merge Treaty"，Japan has performed 35 years of colonial rule on the Korean Peninsula，In 1965, the two countries signed the "Basic Treaty of Japan and South Korea"、After the normalization of diplomatic relations，Around history、Differences and oppositions of the Sea Territory Controversy have never been interrupted。After the end of the Cold War, the easing and eastern relationship between the East and the West has gradually reduced the binding power of the United States on its allies，Japan and South Korea's contradictions are further prominent，Contradictions and differences around the protruding sensitive problems are intensifying。On the issue of claims of the people，Japanese side believes that the "Japan and South Korea Request Agreement" in 1965 has solved all compensation problems。Abe said to the media after the announcement of the export control of South Korea，This matter is related to "the agreement between the country"。The meaning of words，is accusing the Korean side of not complying as the "national agreement"。Korean left political forces believe that the "request rights agreement" solves only state compensation，Supporting positions on folk claims。Japan and South Korea's national contradictions are also intertwined with domestic contradictions in Korea。Park Geun -hye government, representing the conservative forces of South Korea, signed the "comfort women agreement" with the Japanese side、"Military Intelligence Protection Agreement"，Domestic political rebound，Then promote the subsequent adjustment of the Wen Zaiyin government to Japan。The current Korean government is comforting woman、Labor claiming issues are tough on Japan，Won the support of the public。

The development and evolution of contradictions between Japan and South Korea is also vividly reflected in the "mutual" mode of the official documents of the two countries。South Korea positioned Japan as "an important neighbor country with common values" from 2014 to 2016，But the 2017 version of "Diplomacy White Paper" deleted related expressions。2018 version of "Defense White Paper" has also deleted the expression of the previous "South Korea and Japan bet365 Play online games has the basic value of free democracy and the basic value of the market economy"。Corresponding to this，2018 version of Japan's "Diplomacy Blue Book" deleted the word "important neighboring country" as "important neighbors" as "important neighboring countries with strategic interests"。2019 version of "Diplomacy Blue Book" further，Delete 2016、2017 edition "on the basis of mutual trust，Development ambitions to the relationship between the two countries in the new era "，I believe that Japanese -South Korean relations are "in a very severe situation"; on the issue of controversial island "Bamboo Island" (South Korea called "Dok Island")，Settlement of "illegal occupation of South Korea"，Strongly protesting South Korea conducted military training around its surroundings; for the first time, it is described in a special form.，Two pages of special description on the "comfort woman" question。

，In the change of the geopolitical situation in Northeast Asia since 2018，Japan and South Korea are dripping away，Different policy differences in the DPRK。Korean side strives to realize the "peace coexistence" and "common prosperity" of South -South relations by improving the relationship between Korea and North Korea，Abe Cabinet has always taken the North Korean nuclear guide problem，Promote Japan's security strategic transformation with "North Korean threat"，By "abduction problem", condense domestic nationalism。Facing the Korean North Korean、Evasion of US -DPRK relations，Japan insists on "extreme pressure" forcing North Korea to accept "thorough、Unreachable and verified abandoned nuclear "。From the perspective of the Japanese side，Wen Zaiyin's government's policy on North Korea has undoubtedly produced a huge "flush" role in Japan's policy on North Korea。Japan is marginalized during the peace process of the Korean Peninsula，Surrounding diplomacy is frustrated，Area isolated in the area，From this to Han Sheng's incompetent grievances。

　　Japanese export control is bound to hurt yourself

Japanese export control measures will undoubtedly have a strong lethality for South Korea，Once the control is long -term，Korean semiconductor industry is bound to be seriously impacted。At present, the inventory of similar raw materials in Korea can be maintained for about 1 month，The inventory of the finished product can be maintained for 3 months，The two are added for the longest only 4 months。This means that bet365 Play online games as long as the Japanese refuse to relax the control，After 4 months, Korean corporate inventory will "play all the food"，The semiconductor industry is facing the risk of quickly paralysis。Although Japan occupies the upper hand，But from the long run、Deep see the same loss is not small。South Korea is the third largest trading partner in Japan，Economic and trade in the two countries is interdependent，Japan's control of South Korea will inevitably hurt itself。

First，Control measures will cause impact on Japanese companies producing related raw materials，Extracting its cost burden and reducing equipment investment expectations，Causes domestic demand and export synchronization to be damaged。and，Under the background of the deep integration of the global value chain system，The parts required by Japanese high -tech companies not only come from Japan，It also needs to import semiconductor chips and electronic display screens from South Korea，The production of electronic components of Korean enterprises is blocked，It will also cause difficulty in purchasing Japanese companies。

Next，Loss of situations and international credibility in Japan。Japanese and Korean relations worsening，The relationship between the Japanese and North Korea will continue the frozen period。Japan's pretext to comply with the UN Security Council's sanction of North Korean resolutions to implement export control on South Korea，It is believed that the products made in South Korea's use of related materials may enter North Korea。Subsequent，North Korea ’s Labor Party’ s report “Labor News” continuously published social editorial，condemn Japan's "Increasing economic pressure on South Korea"，"Travel on the interests of our nation"，Is the "Millennium Enemies" of the Korean nation。The prospect of the "unconditional talks" of the leaders of the two countries proposed by the Japanese DPRK has become more far away。For Han Shiqiang, the image of the "free trade flag bearer" that Japan has made efforts in recent years has reduced a lot of points。The Japanese side argued that this time was just canceling the export preferential treatment of similar products in Korea，Not within the jurisdiction of the WTO Law，But Japan as the host just promoted the G20 summit to publish "Osaka Declaration"，As a country expressed that it will maintain a multilateral mechanism、Adhere to the principles of free trade，Turn your face to take bet365 best casino games unilateral export control measures，It is difficult to avoid the adverse effects of international public opinion。

Paves in Northeast Asia's reconciliation cooperation

Japan and South Korea are all traded，"Semiconductor friction" will not expand infinitely，It does not rule out that the Japanese posture is moderately alleviated after the Senate election，But friction will not calm down simply，Relations between the two countries are difficult to improve in the short term。The reason is that the contradictions between Japanese and Korean are based on national emotional opposition，Involved in historical grievances、Territory dispute、National and regional policy direction，Pan root wrong，Not easy to solve。Second, the United States does not intentionally intervene。Obama During the Obama period, the United States tried to mediate Japanese and Korean relations，Promote the establishment of the "US -Japan -Korea Three -Side Alliance"。March 2014，President Obama directly involved in Japan and South Korea's relations during the Hague nuclear safety summit，The leaders of the two countries have achieved their first meeting since the United States Embassy in the United States。Japan and South Korea signed the "Comfort Women Agreement" in 2015、Signed the Military Intelligence Protection Agreement in 2016，There are shadows in the United States behind it。But the Trump administration pursues the principle of unilateralism，Focus on the Peninsula Policy in the North，Vision Japan and South Korea friction as "Cup Medium Storm"，Interest of intermediary mediation。

Japanese and Korean relations deadlock not only impacts the global value chain，and will block Northeast Asian regional cooperation。China, Japan, and South Korea, the total economic volume of the three countries accounted for more than 23%in the world，equivalent to the United States，But the proportion of trade in East Asia is low。In 2002, China proposed the concept of China, Japan and South Korea's free trade zone，A total of 15 rounds of negotiations have been conducted since 2013，But stranded for several degrees due to political reasons。2018 negotiations appear turning，Three parties agree to accelerate the process，Strive to achieve "comprehensive、High level、A free trade agreement with mutual benefit and own value "。During the Osaka Summit，Sino -Japanese leaders reached a 10 -point consensus，Among them, "common maintenance of multilateralism and Bet365 app download free trade system，Actively lead regional integration，Promote the construction of an open world economy，Promote the common development of countries around the world "，"Accelerate the process of promoting the negotiation process of the China -Japan -Korea Free Trade Agreement，​​Strive to complete the negotiation of regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement during the year "。But if Japan and South Korea relations have deteriorated for a long time，It will inevitably affect the harmony and stability of Northeast Asia，Then it affects China -Japan and South Korea negotiations，Learn the extension of signing the goal of signing the free trade agreement。

　　(The author is the director of the Japan Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences、Researcher; Associate Researcher of the Japanese Institute of Japanese Academy of Social Sciences)