The study of coalition presidentialism is one of the major themes in Brazilian political research。Since the start of re-democratization in 1985，The federal presidential bet365 new user promo becomes the core design of Brazil’s political bet365 new user promo，Played a key role in maintaining political stability and ensuring the operation of the bet365 new user promo。In the past ten years，Economic stagnation、Frequent protests and serious corruption scandals have highlighted the limitations of this institutional arrangement。Can the federal presidential bet365 new user promo maintain smooth operation in the future and whether Brazilian political reform can gain new impetus，Both are worthy of further observation and research。

　　Why did the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo appear

Brazil’s redemocratization process since its launch in 1985，The fragmented political party structure results in the president’s party always being in the minority in Congress。Presidents must build and maintain a multi-party governing coalition，In order to obtain majority support in Congress，Thus ensuring bet365 new user promo operation and political stability。Brazilian scholar Sergio Ablanches was the first to use the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo to define this core feature of the country's political bet365 new user promo in 1988。From now on，This term is widely used in academic circles。

The coalition presidential bet365 new user promo is a form of multi-party presidential bet365 new user promo。Before the rise of the third wave of “democratization”，Only a few examples of multi-party presidential systems exist in the world。With the arrival of the third wave of "democratization"，Multiparty presidential systems in Latin American countries、Asian countries (Indonesia) and African countries (such as Kenya、Benin and Malawi) adopted。But，The feasibility has been questioned by the academic community。In the opinion of many scholars，The institutional combination of the presidential bet365 new user promo and the multi-party bet365 new user promo is bound to amplify the inherent "risks" of the presidential bet365 new user promo，Intensifying the confrontation between the executive and legislative branches，It is likely to be the cause of the collapse of the emerging democratic bet365 new user promo。

Brazil’s solid performance during the Cardoso government (1995-2003) and the Lula government (2003-2011) reversed the outside world’s pessimistic view of the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo。The Cardoso government is the first stabilizing multi-party coalition government since the country’s re-democratization，The Lula government has also been successful in this regard。These circumstances have led some scholars to develop a more optimistic view of the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo/multi-party presidential bet365 new user promo。Some scholars pointed out based on Brazil’s experience，The multi-party presidential bet365 new user promo can maintain stable operation and durability；Presidential countries have the possibility of forming a coalition government similar to (European) parliamentary countries；The president can be like the prime minister，Gain sufficient support in Congress by forming a party alliance。

Since 2000，Scholars from various countries focus on how countries such as Brazil build and manage multi-party governing coalitions。Some scholars pointed out，The prerequisite for building a multi-party alliance under the presidential bet365 new user promo is that the president has sufficient power and resources，In exchange for the support of other political parties。The President of Brazil has exactly such a "toolbox"，That is, diversified institutional tools and abundant financial resources，Able to attract other political parties and political factions。Brazil’s current democratic bet365 new user promo is the longest-lasting democratic bet365 new user promo in the country’s history。In the opinion of many scholars，This should be attributed to the role of the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo。This institutional arrangement can prevent the president or political parties from abusing power；Joint governance can bring about political moderation and stability；Informal political transaction mechanism helps the government resolve internal conflicts within the bet365 new user promo in a more stable manner。

Despite this，Brazil’s federal presidential bet365 new user promo still faces deep-rooted doubts。Whenever there is an economic downturn or political instability in the country，Sceptics will reiterate this view: the institutional combination of presidential bet365 new user promo and multi-party bet365 new user promo cannot bring about good national governance。In their opinion，Coalition presidential bet365 new user promo can bring political stability to Brazil，At the expense of the already fragile horizontal accountability；The president relies too much on favors to govern，The lack of stability in his ruling position；It is difficult for the political bet365 new user promo to form a synergy，Inability to promote major reforms。

　　The challenge of multi-party governing bet365 new user promo

In terms of nature，Coalitional presidentialism is an informal bet365 new user promo derived from electoral rules and presidential powers，It is a reflection of Brazilian politics on the institutional dilemma caused by the coexistence of the presidential bet365 new user promo and the fragmented party bet365 new user promo，That is, the president’s party is always in the minority in Congress。Its basic function is to handle the relationship between the executive branch and the legislative branch，That is, enabling the president to obtain the majority support in Congress necessary to govern。

Compared with other multi-party presidential systems，The necessity of building a multi-party governing bet365 new user promo in Brazil is particularly prominent。This is first of all because，The country’s parliament is one of the most fragmented in the world。Since 1990，No single party can win more than 25% of the seats in the House of Representatives。Secondly，Brazil’s historical experience shows，When the president’s party or bet365 new user promo of parties is in the congressional minority，Not only is it difficult for the president to effectively govern the country，It is even difficult to complete the term。

In the process of building and managing a multi-party governing bet365 new user promo，The Brazilian president can rely on ideology、Political ideas attract support from some parties，In more cases, political deals rely on a series of special "products": one is "alliance products"，Mainly government ministerial positions and other important positions appointed by the president，Set the bottom line for party alliance；The second is "exchange products"，Senior executive positions that include budgetary terms and political appointments，Mainly used to bear the costs of current actions。“Exchange products” are the “lubricant” of the multi-party ruling bet365 new user promo。The President of Brazil cannot rely on the members of Congress in the ruling bet365 new user promo to vote for him like the President of the United States。Once faced with a vote on a major motion，The president must build a support base in Congress bit by bit，Rely on "exchange products" for support tickets。The "monthly fee case" that broke out in 2005 fully reflects this relationship between the Brazilian president and the political parties that are members of the ruling bet365 new user promo。

Brazil’s multi-party governing bet365 new user promo has the following two characteristics。One，In terms of scale，Presidents from Cardoso to Temer have built a very large governing bet365 new user promo。August 2016，President Temer established a 21-party bet365 new user promo，This is the ruling bet365 new user promo with the largest number of members since Brazil’s re-democratization。Part 2，The member parties of the alliance often have significant differences in ideological positions。During the Lula and Rousseff governments，The ruling bet365 new user promo is composed of left and right parties，With very significant ideological heterogeneity。

The fragility of Brazil’s multi-party governing bet365 new user promo is caused by three aspects，First，The greater the number of member parties，The more difficult it becomes for alliances to carry out joint actions。Second，The greater the ideological differences between member parties，The more difficult it becomes for coalitions to reach consensus on the government’s agenda。Third，If the alliance gives a member an excessively high proportion of rewards，Ask the President to inject additional resources，To satisfy those members who receive less in return。

Brazil’s passive situation in the past decade or so highlights the limitations of the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo。It is concentrated in the following three aspects: first，The cooperative relationship between the President and Congress is deeply patronizing，Having harmed the responsibility of national policies and the overall interests of society。Second，Cooperation between the President and Congress relies on a set of informal rules，Creates space for power rent-seeking and corruption。Third，The Brazilian political bet365 new user promo with the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo as its core contains a large number of party "vetoes"，Make it difficult to implement reforms that would disturb the status quo。

　　bet365 new user promo Dilemma and the Future

On whether the federal presidential bet365 new user promo has come to an end in Brazil，No conclusion has been reached yet。In view of the flaws and shortcomings of the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo，There have been constant calls for the implementation of a parliamentary bet365 new user promo in Brazil in recent years。But these claims lack social consensus，Difficult to put into practice。As far as the current situation is concerned，Relying on political reform to improve the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo is still a more realistic option。

Such a political reform will be extremely ambitious，It is bound to touch many important areas of the Brazilian political bet365 new user promo。To make the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo operate smoothly，The country needs to reform the party bet365 new user promo and electoral bet365 new user promo。For the party bet365 new user promo、The reform of the electoral bet365 new user promo will inevitably involve the reform of another important political bet365 new user promo - federalism。Brazil’s congressional elections are actually centered on states，After the members of Congress took office，You need to pay close attention to the needs of your elected state。In other words，The influence of states has made the country’s party bet365 new user promo more fragmented。

Brazil is facing such a political dilemma，On the one hand，The coalition presidential bet365 new user promo is not conducive to achieving good national governance，And its reform and improvement will inevitably touch the main pillars of the current political bet365 new user promo，means a comprehensive one、Major political reform；On the other hand，The country continues its conservative political pattern during the third wave of "democratization"，It is difficult to form the overall environment required to initiate reforms。Under this dilemma，Executive and legislative branches、Federal and local governments、The ruling coalition and the opposition parties cannot form a joint force，Jointly promote the major reforms needed to boost economic and social development。The longer people struggle in this predicament，The more you lose confidence in mainstream political parties and politicians，The more likely you are to cast an “angry vote” in the general election，More hope that political “outsiders” or extremists will reform。

The reason why Bolsonaro was elected president in 2018，Thanks in large part to the anti-establishment sentiment of the people，But he was also subject to the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo after taking office。Bolsonaro withdrew from the Brazilian Social Liberal Party in November 2019 after joining less than two years ago，And has been nonpartisan for a long time。As pressure on Congress to impeach the president continues to increase，He had to fight with centrist parties (including the Democratic Party、Progressive Party、Alliance of Democratic Socialists and Republicans，These parties have always opposed its market liberalization reforms。Therefore，This political alliance actually means that the president's willingness to reform is retreating。

The results of the Brazilian election are about to be released。Labor Party Leader、Former President Lula has announced that he will run for president again，and considered the most likely candidate to win。To expand the support base，Lula’s Labor Party unites 6 center-left/centre parties to form a campaign alliance。In addition，Lula is still seeking support from some center-right parties，Once he wins the presidential election，will soon face the huge challenge of building a governing coalition。Since there are as many as 32 legal political parties，Also due to the decline in the strength of the Labor Party，Congress will most likely maintain a fragmented structure。In other words，The federal presidential bet365 new user promo will continue to play a key role in maintaining the functioning of Brazilian politics。But，How to resolve various shortcomings accompanying the coalition presidential bet365 new user promo and how to form a driving force for institutional reform，No clear answer yet。

　　(Author’s unit: Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, Chinese Academy of bet365 new user promo)