Since 2023,my country's economic presentation has risen to a good situation,Show strong toughness and vitality。But at the same time, it continues to be outside、Under the situation of rapid decline,The characteristics of the domestic economy at a specific time window show the characteristics of insufficient demand,This requires the strong synergy of promoting investment and consumption to expand domestic demand。
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One,my country's consumption structure still has a large upgrade space。Per capita GDP exceeded $ 10,000 for the first time in 2019,It is an important symbol of the industrialization era in China。Looking at the development experience of industrialized countries such as virtue, Japan and South Korea,One country enters the industrialization stage,The process of upgrading the consumption structure of residents often occurs。China's current urban family consumption expenditure structure is roughly equivalent to Japan and South Korea 20th century 70、Level of the 1980s,Consumption upgrade space is still considerable。Looking at it specifically,China's optional consumption is still in the stage of popularization and upgrade,The penetration rate of durable consumer products such as cars is large and the gap between developed countries is large,and the gap between urban and rural areas still exists。other,High -end service consumption, represented by "science, education, culture and health", rose slowly,The main reason is that the effective supply in related bet365 best casino games fields is insufficient。If the investment in the field of "science, education, culture and health" and other high -end consumption fields is created to create related needs,At the same time, the market -oriented reform of the high -end service industry represented by "science, education, cultural and health" is continuously promoted to improve the efficiency of related industries,It can open Chinese residents to choose from optional consumption、Vast space in the fields of high -end service consumption。
Its two,China's urbanization process is still "halfway",Incrementing space and existing improvement space broad。Since the reform and opening up,China's high economic growth is inseparable from the development of industrialization and the process of urbanization。This process not only promotes the substantial increase in infrastructure investment and real estate investment,It also improves the consumption structure of urban residents,Promoting housing、Car、Leisure、Tourism and other new format development。But from the international horizontal comparison,There is still a large gap between the urbanization rate of China and major Western countries,Need to continue to release domestic demand through new urbanization。other,Promoting the equalization of basic public services represented by the reform of the household registration system,It helps to continue to release a large amount of demand on the basis of existing urbanization。
Its three,High savings rate is the basis for continuously played the key role of effective investment。In the process of economic development in China,Investment has always played a key role,The foundation for supporting China's high investment Bet365 lotto review rate is higher savings level。Improve capital conversion efficiency will be an effective way to resolve the decline in capital supply capacity in my country。Look at it from the middle and long term,It is necessary to carry out overall reform of the financial system,Improve the financing structure mainly based on indirect financing。In the short term,It should actively improve financial institutions to serve the real economy capabilities,Further improve the investment conversion efficiency。On the one hand,Improve the current multi -level capital market,Improve the degree of opening up the capital market,Attract more medium and long -term funds overseas。On the other hand,Continue to play the positive role of commercial banks and policy financial institutions。Improve commercial banks integrated investment and financing services,Guide commercial banks to provide support for cooperative companies with good service means。Policy financial institutions while supporting the construction of major infrastructure,Timely putting policy in time, medium- and long -term credit funds,Leves social capital additional investment,Form leverage effect。
Four,High -quality finance opens provides new support for domestic capital stocks。Theoretical research shows,International capital usually flows to countries and regions with high productivity。Since 2018,my country's financial supervision authorities steadily promote the opening of the financial industry,Including relaxation of market access conditions,High standard、Multi -channel promotes the two -way opening of the financial market。Looking forward to the future,With the further opening of capital Bet365 lotto review and financial accounts,The net flow of international direct investment (FDI) will be more stable; equity and debt investment are also expected to shift from net outflow to net inflow。In the context of the reduction of the savings rate of my country,The continuous stable inflow of overseas funds provides new support for domestic capital stock。Look at it from the middle and long term,Due to a high economic growth rate,China ’s natural interest rate (the long -term level and trend of the actual interest rate determines the actual interest rate) will continue and significantly higher than the major economies including the United States。
Five,Macro policy space is relatively sufficient。The Chinese government has a normal policy space,It provides a very favorable policy environment for the realization of its own steady growth。In terms of monetary policy,The weighted average deposit reserve rate of Chinese financial institutions is about 7.4%,There is still a certain reduction space。Consumption power is not enough and the slowdown in income growth, resulting in continuous low -level operation,It means that the current actual interest rate is at a relatively high level,It provides policy space for further interest rate cuts。In terms of fiscal policy,The debt level of the central government of our country is still at a lower level。Under the theoretical hypothesis of balanced and expenditure balance,Government departments provide basic currency through their own deficit spending,Further converted into net income of the domestic private sector。my country can lower the level of local government debt,Make full use of fiscal policy space through moderate issuing government bonds。
Macro -control reform for large domestic cycles
Bet365 lotto review On the one hand,Focus on driving domestic demand,Speed up macro -control reform。The trend of globalization appears,Under the international environment where external demand gradually weakens,my country should pay more attention to the large domestic cycle,Focusing on driving domestic demand growth,Promote the integration of domestic economy。First,Gradually replace net exports with domestic fiscal deficits,Use the issuance of government bonds to replace foreign exchange accounts,Establish a new type of currency issuance channel。Since the implementation of the compulsory settlement and sales system in 1994,For a long time, foreign exchange accounts are the main source of funds for the central bank of my country to invest in the basic currency。Now,my country should provide basic currency through the central government deficit expenditure,Fixed master currency sovereignty。In this case,The government can not only directly improve people's livelihood、Support for improving the level of social security,to promote final consumption; it can also strengthen independent innovation、Promoting the construction of new infrastructure injection funds,thereby reducing investment risks of private sector,Improve its investment income,Move investment enthusiasm。Next,Fundamentally changing my country's export -oriented economic development model。By encouraging domestic high -end industrial development、Reduce export tax refund subsidy and other methods,Change the current situation of the low -end industrial chain in the international division of labor,Gradually reduce regular project surplus,A new situation of foreign trade with Bet365 lotto review a trade balance or even a slight deficit。again,Improve the level of internationalization of RMB,Actively adopt local currency in trading and valuation in international trade,By the way,Increase the net income of the residents of the country。Last,Promote the formation of a large domestic cycle,Realize the integration of the domestic economy。Although the fiscal deficit played an important role in the reform of the monetary issuance mechanism,But for a large amount of developing countries such as my country,Should focus on the huge potential of the domestic market,Realize the accumulation of corporate profits and labor income cycles、Collaborative division of labor in various regions in China、Domestic economic integration of urban and rural mutual markets。
On the other hand,Fiscal policy should increase expansion,Monetary policy should be dropped in the real interest rate。Look at it in the short term,Fiscal policy and monetary policy is important to reverse demand。Fiscal policy,Policies that can focus on income from tax cuts and other income,Turn to consumer subsidy、Government investment and other expenditure policies。For example,The issuance of consumer vouchers across the country can solve the problem of excess production while effectively pulling consumption,The passive situation of the savings of residents' savings directly due to cash "increased cash"。other,Policy financial loans should pay attention to investment in public welfare infrastructure with low yields,Support for new types of urbanization。In terms of monetary policy,Pulling the real interest rate through the pressure drop down the medium and long -term interest rate level and risk premium,bet365 best casino games Then use the cost of reducing capital、Improve asset valuation and other channels to promote credit expansion,Improve cash flow status from the power of the market subject,Finally formed a strong support for consumption and investment。
(The author is a researcher at the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; PhD in the School of Applied Economics of the University of China)
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