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Change of the population structure is an important factor in explaining the rapid development of China's socio -economic development since the reform and opening up。Starting from the mid -1960s，Following the top of the total and fertility rate，China's population is gradually transferred to "low birth、Low death、Low Growth "stage。70s and 1980s，The rapid increase in the working age population and the continuous decline in the total social support ratio have "shaped" a "productive" population structure (the production population is greater than the consumer population)。It not only guarantees more sufficient labor supply，At the same time, it has also promoted the significant improvement of national savings，It has become an important momentum to drive China's high -speed growth，Released a huge "Population Bonus"。But，With the continuous decline of the total population fertility rate and the continuous extension of the expected life expectancy，The aging process is greatly accelerated，Speed ​​the transformation from "production type" to "liability" (consumer population is greater than the labor population).。The gradual decline of the demographic dividend and the exacerbation of the degree of aging have become a major challenge for China's economic development in the new era。

　　Aging generally presentation"Two High Schools and One Super One" trend

Correct grasping the trend of Chinese population aging is the fundamental prerequisite for actively responding to aging society。According to the latest prediction results announced by the China Population and Development Research Center，China's population aging shows the trend features of "two highs, one super -one independence"。Where，"Two highs" refers。In the next 30 years，China's elderly population enters the continuous high growth stage，Especially after Bet365 app download 2030，An average annual growth will exceed 11.2 million people。At the same time，The process of aging is continuously intensified，The growth rate of elderly people has increased significantly。2050，The elderly population over 65 years old is expected to exceed 400 million，Close to 1/3 of the proportion of the total population，，About 10%of families have at least one elderly over 65 years old。Where，The size of the elderly will reach 144 million people，More more than the total population of Russia at the same time，Also surpass Europe、The total number of elderly elderly people in North America。"One Super" refers to the great increase in the population support ratio，The burden of pension will exceed the burden of younger care。The rapid rise of the elderly population，Make the elderly support ratio expected to surpass children's support ratio around 2030，The burden of pension is increasingly becoming the main pressure source of the burden on the age of labor。From 2050，The elderly support ratio rose to 49.9%，About the average level (43.9%) 6 ratios (43.9%) of about OECD developed countries。"One independence" refers to under the trend of family miniature，The scale of the elderly living alone has increased significantly。Based on the estimation of Zeng Yi team of Peking University，between 1982，The average number of families in China has decreased from 4.40 to 2.89 people，By 2050, it fell to 2.51 people。Affected by family miniature，The number of elderly people who live alone is expected to rise from 17.54 million in 2010 to 53.1 million in 2050。

In short，Gradually transferred to the downward channel in the total population、Under the pressure of negative growth of inertia，The continuous downturn and the peak of fertility during the peak of fertility and the birth population entered the elderly in a large scale，Joint Force promoted the profound change of China's population structure in the next 30 years。This period，Regardless of scale、The speed is still depth (aging)，China's population aging will enter the unprecedented Bet365 app download "strengthening" stage。Obviously，Population aging and a series of changes in the population structure brought by it will bring a series of severe challenges to the sustainable development of China's socio -economic economy。

Challenge is both universal and special

Like other aging countries，The impact of aging on economic growth is first to affect labor supply。In the case of the continuous downturn of the total fertility rate，The continuous expansion of the population scale over 65 years old will continue to "compress" the growth space of the labor age population。In the next 30 years，China's labor age population enters a fast downward channel due to the deepening of aging，By 2050, the number of labor age population will be reduced by about 200 million compared to the current。Next，Deepening aging is not conducive to savings and investment growth。On the one hand，Decrease in labor age population with a stronger willingness and ability，consumption -based、Large -scale increase in elderly groups with weak savings capabilities，It is difficult to maintain a high level for a long time for residents' savings scale and savings;，The expansion of the age of the elderly, especially the elderly, is bound to bring medical treatment、great increase in non -productive consumption expenditures such as care and pension protection，Further "compressed" the growth space for productive public investment in national income。other，From the long run,，The significant increase in the population of the elderly and the increasing aging of the working age population is not conducive to the accumulation and quality of human capital。and the aggravation of the burden of family and social pension may inevitably be squeezed to the next generation of education investment，Then affect the continuous accumulation of human capital。

Of course，The aging challenges faced by China's economy, although there are many similarities with developed countries，But the difference is，China not only experiences fast social transformation，There is also a big gap between its economic development and social security levels.bet365 live casino games 。The process of fast aging allows China to be "not rich"，It has to face the "pension pressure" that is quite or even more than developed countries，This "not rich first" situation will further enlarge the negative effects of aging in many ways，Bring more challenges to China, which is still actively seeking to maintain rapid economic growth。

"Elderly has to raise" -The increase in funding for endowment insurance。The Chinese government has actively promoted pension insurance since the 1980s to gradually promote the accumulation of partial accumulation of "social payment" system based on cities and enterprises.。At the same time，In the next 30 years，With the birth of the population during the peak of fertility, the population enters the elderly in a large scale，The number of pensions receipt is expected to rise sharply and the population of the payment gradually decreases，As a result, the potential fund gap paid by the endowment insurance fund is continuously expanded。Rotor costs and hidden debts make the current incomplete pension insurance system facing funding pressure。If you cannot further optimize the endowment insurance system，With the peak period of the elderly population, the arrival of the peak of the elderly，The pressure to raise funds will "show" into a heavy financial burden。

"Old Elderly" -The elderly care and family burden is heavy。Informal care from family members has always been the most important old care mode in China。but，The population structure of the population brought by fast aging is constantly weakening the population foundation of China ’s elderly family care in the next 30 years。Although the average number of children in China is currently 5-6 people，But in the 1950s and 1960s, the population born in the peak period of childbirth was less than two children.。It can foresee，With these people entered the old age in the next 30 years，The number of "empty nest" families will undoubtedly usher in a larger scale expansion。In this case，Traditional family care must face more severe challenges。From the long run,，When the official bet365 best casino games care service such as institutions and communities is still in its infancy,，The increase in the burden of home care will adversely affect the accumulation of labor supply and human capital。

Facing the severe challenges brought by aging to the sustainable development of socioeconomic economy，China not only needs to continue to promote the reform of social endowment protection and service system reform and innovation，Effectively solve the sustainability of social endowment insurance、Long -term care and supply of the elderly、Combination of medical care and the construction of social pension service system，At the same time, make full use of modern technology，Continuously improve the level and efficiency of human resources，Challenges to decline in labor supply。

　Actively increase labor supply

Actively encourage fertility and improve the fertility guarantee and service system。Although the actual effectiveness of the current "general two -child" policy is lower than expected，But in the long run，Fully let go of fertility and implement more positive population policies，To promote the balanced population development、Increasing labor supply is still very important。A positive population policy is not just letting go of fertility, but supporting the establishment of "family support、Infant childcare、Maternity Medical Guarantee、Women's Employment Protection "and other series of services and support systems that encourage and support fertility behaviors。

Deepen the "Population Dividends"，Promoting the development of population from "quantity advantage" to "quality advantage"。Although the degree of aging of continuous deepening makes China's population dividend gradually fading，But the comparative advantage of the population structure still exists，Human capital level still has a lot of room for improvement。

For this，On the one hand，You need to promote the implementation of the "lifelong learning" strategy，Increase the coverage of education and training resources on the national life cycle，Comprehensive improvement of labor quality。Bet365 lotto review In the next thirty years，The reduction in the size of children and children has increased the ability of the labor age population to support the population.，The proportion of the working age population of 45-64 years of age increases，Make experience and technical level more mature and rich in adolescent labor force becomes backbone，These conditions help greatly improve the quality of labor and human capital by expanding education and training resources。

On the other hand，Accelerate the advancement of digital economy and technological innovation，Not only will it help promote the country's more attention to the training and training of high -tech talents，Organic integration of the digital technology and service industry，Creating a large number of new types of work form。

other，Strengthen health investment，Actively promote healthy aging。Especially for older workers and the elderly，We must pay attention to strengthening occupational health services and occupational disease prevention，Improve the career environment and safety status。At the same time，Improve the combination of medical care，Improve the convenience and accessibility of medical services to elderly groups，Strengthen the construction of social pension service system。Facing the trend of empty nestization and oligoma，The supply of service for improving institutions and community pensions can help reduce the burden of home care。

Improve the endowment insurance system，Establish a flexible retirement mechanism。Establish a multi -level pension insurance system that is compatible with aging society，Promote the pension method with strong accumulation functions (encouraging savings)，Not only is it conducive to alleviating the pressure of pension funding caused by aging，At the same time, it can also better use a new savings motivation that appears due to extensive life expectancy，Keep a high savings rate，Increase the potential of the future economy。At the same time，While accelerating the distribution of state -owned capital allocation of social security funds while increasing the management level and yield of the bet365 best casino games fund，Can greatly strengthen the sustainability of the basic endowment insurance system。Last，Facing the increasingly aging of the labor age，Reasonable extension of retirement period，Explore and establish a more flexible retirement mechanism，It will also to a certain extent to alleviate the pressure of pension funding、Improve labor participation rate、Increasing labor supply has a positive significance。

(This article is the Study of Basic Scientific Issues in the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Research on Basic Science Issues in Aging Society "(71490730) phased achievement)

(Author Unit: School of Labor and Personnel of Renmin University of China; Institute of National Development Research in Peking University)