[Academic China · Economics] Cai Yan: Increase the re -distribution intensity to cultivate middle -income groups
October 20, 2021 09:33 Source: "Chinese Social Sciences" October 20, 2021 Total 2269 Author: Cai Yan

  

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"Targeting Effect" is an important concept in neo -liberal economics,It is emphasized that the poor class or disadvantaged groups will not be given in the process of economic development in a country,Instead of expanding the general wealth of society through economic growth,Finally benefit the poor。From historical experience,This concept is based on a series of assumptions,It is not established in reality。First, assuming it can make "cake",Realize the increase of total social wealth。Second, assuming that the initial distribution can substantially reduce the income gap。Prove to the facts,The first allocation can indeed improve income distribution,But the substantial reduction of the income gap cannot be achieved,that is, the Ichigan coefficient is less than 0.4。Third, assuming that middle -income groups can form and grow with the improvement of economic development and per capita income,This does not match the actual situation。In our country,To promote common prosperity for solidly、Cultivate and consolidate secondary bet365 best casino games income groups,It is necessary to increase the re -distribution intensity。

General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at the tenth meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee,Adhere to the people -centered development thought,Promote common prosperity in high -quality development。For our country,Maintain a reasonable range in the next 15 years,Promote common prosperity in high -quality development,The potential growth rate must be continuously increased on the supply side,Guarantee the potential of economic growth on the demand side,Do your best、Delivery。According to the 2035 distant scene target proposed by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Party,my country will enter the ranks of high -income countries around 2025,By 2035, it becomes a middle -developed country。Our prediction also shows,my country's per capita GDP can basically reach 23,000 US dollars in 2035,Residential disposable income will also reach a new level。This shows that my country's residents' income growth and GDP growth basically keep synchronization,The people can share development results。But you should also see,Whether it is per capita GDP or per capita residents' disposable income,All average value,It does not involve income distribution。So,To achieve common prosperity, it is necessary to reduce the income gap as soon as possible。Since the bet365 live casino games 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,The income gap between urban and rural residents in my country enters the hovering period after the experience is reduced,This requires us to seek other ideas,Lay the Gini coefficient of this gap to less than 0.4,can ensure that substantially advances common prosperity。

In the mainstream economic theory in the West,There are two famous hypothesis about the relationship between economic growth and income gaps。One is the Kuznets curve,that is, as the per capita income level increases,The income gap gradually expands,But starting to shrink after reaching a peak,to form an inverted U -shaped curve。If comparison of the Gini coefficient and per capita GDP,This curve is roughly exist。The other is an unqualified type R & GT; G proposed by Picatti,That is, capital income is always greater than the growth of output or labor income,It indicates that the income gap is continuously expanding,It is contrary to the hypothesis of the "inverted U -shaped" assumption of Kuznets。These two assumptions are based on certain facts,If you unify it,It is reflected as revenue re -distribution。From the situation of OECD countries,The first -time Igini coefficients after the first allocation of these countries are above 0.4,But after the income is re -assigned through tax and transfer payment,Gini coefficient decreased Bet365 app download by 35%,The Gini coefficient of most countries drops to less than 0.4,Some are even less than 0.3。Visible,Reconstruction in the process of narrowing the income gap, play a key role。

At the same time,If there is no huge middle -income group,It is impossible to achieve a reasonable income distribution pattern。So,Reconstruction for cultivating and growing middle -income groups,Increase the scale of the middle income group,Increased middle -income groups account for the proportion of all population,Also play a very important role。According to Liu Yulin and other estimates,The per capita can dominate the income between 4000-31000 yuan, which belongs to the middle income group,As a result, the number of middle -income groups estimated to be closest to the value announced by the State Bureau of Statistics。But the available control income,refers to deducting personal income after deducting basic living expenditures and other fixed expenses。The per capita monthly salary of Chinese migrant workers in 2020 is 4072 yuan。Due to the lack of social security and employment stability,It is difficult for us to call it a middle -income group。So,Middle income groups should be more accurate definition,Including reasonable salary income and moderate property income at a certain standard、High -quality employment、With the opportunity to improve human capital improvement and basic public services that are bet365 Play online games satisfied with。These basic conditions cannot be fully solved in the initial distribution,Question of salary、The problem of employment is still promoted by a series of reforms,But the problem of solving basic public services must be re -assigned by income。

Re -allocation also brings a series of theoretical problems and practical problems。The theoretical level lies in how to reflect fairness and efficiency at different periods,And the real level is facing "where the money comes from"。If the intention of re -assigning is to achieve sustainable economic growth,According to the same theoretical logic,Reconstruction can also reduce social expenditure burden。According to the so -called Laver curve,Increasing tax rates can increase taxes,Then expand GDP。But the actual result of this policy is often expanded by the income gap。If the Lava curve is appropriately transformed,It is used to reflect the relationship between government social expenditure and the proportion of GDP,The more social expenditure,The higher the proportion of the GDP of this type of expenditure,But after a certain point, it expands GDP (that is, denominator),can reduce this public expenditure ratio。So,In addition to the improvement of income distribution,The distribution of re -assignment has the effect of improving the denominator,determines whether the Chinese economy can achieve sustainable growth。

bet365 best casino games From the perspective of the reality of our country,Expanded and re -distribution can achieve the effect of "one stone and three birds"。First of all, the general law。GDP per capita in developed countries rose from 10,000 US dollars to a development stage of $ 25,000,Social expenditure accounted for GDP proportion from 26%to 37%。and my country is also in a period of significant social benefits from now to 2035。Followed by special challenges。With my country's population entered a negative growth after its peak value is coming to its peak,The demand side has become an important factor restricting economic growth。This requires expanding consumption,The inhibitory effect of the aging aging of the aging of the aging aging,and expanding consumption requires further improvement of income distribution,Especially to resolve requirements through re -distribution。Finally, "creative destruction" effect。Excessive government protection can easily cause zombie companies,Therefore, at the level of business operation or market competition,To avoid the government from anyone、Any company、Any production capacity or even any position for excessive intervention or protection,While achieving creative destruction,Reconstruction of the main means based on the supply of basic public services,Ensure that social expenditure ratio is proportional to productivity。

Editor in charge: Chen Jing
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