Since January 2018，The United States has implemented the largest foreign economic policy transformation since the 1930s' trade war，Abandoned multilateralism formed after World War II，I have adopted a new strategy of a single fight。U.S. unilateral improvement of import goods tariffs、Exit the cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP)、Promoting a series of acts such as the "USMCA" (USMCA "(USMCA)，Added uncertainty of its foreign trade policy，It has an impact on global economic development。For this，The reporter interviewed relevant scholars，Explore the adverse effects of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on the US and global economy。

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Associate Professor Katheryn Russ, an associate professor at the University of California, said in an interview with this reporter，Since 2010，The US economy has always been recovering。Current，American economic bet365 best casino games data performance is still available，This is due to the large -scale fiscal stimulus plan and tax reduction measures passed in 2017。But the surprising thing is，We still see that its investment and manufacturing are in a weak condition。This may be related to the transformation of US trade policies in the past two years。

To some extent，It is difficult to see that the transformation of trade policy has a greater impact on the macroeconomic。Las said，According to the latest census data，The average effective tariffs in the United States are 2.7%，Almost double the level of 2017，High numbers that have not seen for 25 years。Without considering other complicated uncertain factors，2018 and the first half of 2019，A tariff one has caused a total loss of domestic GDP (GDP) of 0.01%。​​This value looks very small，But it means that an American family costs an average of hundreds of dollars per year。

Research indicates，The entire cost of tariffs is reflected in the price of imported goods。According to a research estimate of the National Economic Research Agency in March 2019，Tariff measures implemented in 2018 will increase the cost of buying raw bet365 live casino games materials by American companies by 1%。

Las thinks，The United States embarks on this new unilateral road in terms of trade policy，As a result, its future is extremely uncertain。The uncertainty of this trade policy may have the same impact on the economy as the cost of the tariff itself，This is very important for companies。An independent research estimate of the Federal Reserve Committee，Compared with the situation without new tariffs and trade policies，Tariffs imposed in the first half of 2018 and 2019 will cause the actual GDP of the United States in 2020 to reduce 1 percentage point，This is equivalent to the average loss of each American family about $ 1700。This is suppressed with industrial production、Cutting investment when facing the risk of increasing uncertainty，There is an indifferent contact。

　　Umi -macroeconomic prospects are unknown

Las emphasized，Regardless of whether the unilateralism of the US trade policy is temporarily or long -term，It will have a long -term impact on the macroeconomic。First，Uncertainty of trade policy cannot be easily or quickly reverse。Due to the inhibitory effect of unilateralist trade policy on corporate activities, Bet365 lotto review it has had a substantial impact on economic growth，This inertia is likely to continue。

Next，For a long time in the future，Unilateral protectionism may weaken the ability of American companies to enter foreign markets。When the United States is withdrawing from trade negotiations、When the scale of re -negotiating and reducing the trade agreement，Other countries are committed to reaching a trade agreement。When other countries' tariffs on the United States basically remain unchanged or even increased，Tariffs between many trading partners in the United States are falling。Las admitted，The new one -to -one trade negotiation strategy in the United States at best is just a successful successful success。

Las thinks，Future，The possibility of trade friction in the United States and other countries is very high，Therefore, the uncertainty of the trade policy will continue to erode US investment and economic growth。

　　Protectiveism exacerbates global economic risks

Doug Irwin, a trading historian at Datmouth College, believes，The trade agreement formulated by the Trump administration is very different from the agreement formulated by the previous presidents bet365 live casino games of the United States。The first president is committed to reducing global tariffs，Establish an international system that is designed to promote free trade。To some extent，They are all to let the market liberalize。But the Trump administration's interference with free trade，In fact, it has brought catastrophic consequences to American workers。

What is even more worrying is，It's not just the United States that pursues unilateral protectionism。According to the Global Trade Early Warning Report，In the past 10 years，Available measures to prevent imports in order to prevent imports continued to increase，far exceeds the pace of trade liberalization。Since 2017，Protective forces look up。Research discovery of the Federal Reserve Committee，The uncertainty of the US trade policy in the first half of 2018 caused the global GDP to fall by 0.8%after a year，This loss is about 700 billion US dollars。This is mainly due to the decline in industrial production and related investment。

An International Monetary Fund Organization and other institutions warned，Protectionism has slowed down trade growth to a certain extent，Destroy bet365 best casino games the supply chain，Pressure will constitute the growth of output and productivity。Las said，History has been proven，If the global economy really enters the recession period，Strong protectionist measures will only exacerbate the severity of economic recession。That is to say，In the case where many countries have not enough space to use currencies and fiscal policies to stimulate economic development，The rising trade friction will only increase the vulnerability of the global economy。