The efforts and results of China's anti -epidemic are attracted worldwide attention。Recent，"BRICS Four Kingdoms" conceptaries、Chairman of the Institute of Royal Institute of International Affairs, Jim O’neill, said in an exclusive interview with this reporter，After the epidemic，China can still ensure that the economic high speed can be increased by strengthening the reform。If other countries in the world can be like China，Time to take strong measures to prevent the epidemic in time，It may be possible to avoid the global economy falling into crisis。

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"China Social Sciences":What does the epidemic affect the Chinese economy in the short term?

　　O'Neill:This situation is quite special、Senior。To prevent the epidemic from spreading，China has to temporarily stop most economic activities。Obviously，This will cause the Chinese economy to be negatively affected。For decision makers，This challenge is very difficult。Lucky is，There are obvious signs of indication，The efforts to fight against the epidemic in China have first seen results，Especially in areas outside Hubei。Now，China is cautiously resumed production and resumption，In the case of ensuring safety，Allow personnel to return to post、Travel。but but，As far as GDP (GDP) is concerned,，China's first quarter GDP will be weak。and，China ’s GDP growth rate in 2020 is 6 % difficulty.。

　　"China Social Sciences":What do you think of the impact of the epidemic on the global economy?

　　O'Neill:The epidemic will have a double impact on the global economy。First，China's current proportion of GDP is four or five times when SARS "，This means that the short -term weakness of the Chinese economy will bring major challenges to the world economy。Before the epidemic occurs，China's economic growth slowed，Even if you are in Germany and other places in 10,000 miles, you can feel the influence。but now，The losses caused by the epidemic situation are almost equivalent to the economic volume of Australia -Australia is one of the 20 major economies in the world -withdrawing from the world for a whole quarter，This impact on the world economy can be imagined。This effect will be in global business、Travel、Tourism and other fields are reflected。

Next，The current epidemic is spread to South Korea、Italy and Iran and other countries，This means that these economies have to suppress economic activities at the same time。but，The market is worried that these economies will not respond to the anti -fighting epidemic as China。From this level，To prevent the epidemic，Decision makers in other countries bet365 Play online games may also restrict business activities and people travel，This will further bring new risks to the global economy。Until the 3rd week of February，The market also believes that the epidemic is just a short -term problem，But now people are more and more worried that it will still have a long -lasting effect after the first quarter。

　　"China Social Sciences":Will the epidemic cause long -term damage to the global financial market?

　　O'Neill:The global financial market is also in a difficult period。After experiencing the slowdown of the world economy in 2019 and the Sino -US trade dispute，The world economy has just shown signs to stabilize，But suddenly encountered this epidemic。The epidemic causes serious concerns in many places。Can China achieve the goal of growth? It is weak in Germany、Italy is often weak、Under the unpredictable situation of the British "Brexit"，Can Europe avoid recession? Now，The financial market in many countries and regions, including the United States, is at the highest value of valuation，Therefore, it is easily affected by adverse impact。

Many analysts including me think，The most worrying thing is，Is there still room for compensation policies in various countries。For this crisis,，In addition to boosting the market，​​Just pursue more quantitative easing policies and lower interest rates.。other，The debt level of some countries may limit the application scope of the fiscal stimulus plan。

Despite this，If we can take effective measures bet365 live casino games like China to prevent the virus from spreading in Europe，Wait until the weather warms and then promote the economic recovery，I think the market will follow the recovery。But，To predict when to turn around，This is very difficult。

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"China Social Sciences":How do you foresee your long -term development of the Chinese economy?

　　O'Neill:In that well -known BRICS study research report，I expect China's economic growth rate between 2021 and 2030 will be about 5.5%。until January 2020，I have no doubt about this prediction，Even if China faces some policy challenges。A potential maximum reality is，China's labor force has reached its peak，If it does not increase the productivity，GDP growth will slow，Therefore, I have 5.5 % of the prediction。but，Now you have to consider the epidemic.。The epidemic has brought a lot of challenges to China。For example，After the epidemic is over，Can China's consumption and production recover in the past? Does the Chinese go out to travel as much as before?，This means that China must speed up to promote personal consumption，More powerful reforms in China。I think，China must consider cooperation with other parts of the world，Especially in the construction of the “Belt and Road”。Let other countries participate more of this exciting project，can greatly promote internal trade in Asia，and help promote China's economic growth rate of more than 6 %。

　　"China Social Sciences":How to find a balance between China ’s anti -epidemic and restore production，minimize the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy?

　　O'Neill:China is obviously impossible for the economy to stop，Because this will lead to a serious economic recession，It may even lead to the financial crisis and even social crisis。In view of the current restrictions on the flow of personnel in some areas to avoid the spread of the epidemic,，I think，China can gradually allow non -epidemic key key prevention and control areas to resume work and production。This is vital to economic recovery。

Future，China can consider increasing investment in health care and disease prevention。Over the years，I did a lot of work in the review of antibiotics。From this，I also know，Countries need to regard the prevention of infectious diseases as a macro investment tool，Because its multiplication income is very considerable。

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"China Social Sciences":Current，China also faces the challenges and opportunities brought by the first phase of the economic and trade agreement between China and the United States。How do you think of the prospects of Sino -US relations?

　　O'Neill:The motivation for provoking the US -China trade dispute may exist in the United States for a long time，and almost have nothing to do with the results of the US election。China must understand，The United States has produced a paranoid emotion on the development of many aspects of China。and，The United States does not want to lose the status of the world's largest economy at all，Of course, it is even more unwilling to let a non -American -style economic model。but，This idea in the United States is unreasonable。The largest population of the country with the largest population is normal。The United States will be realized one day，China becomes the largest economy may help American citizens get more wealth。

　　"China Social Sciences":Some experts suggest that China has developed a stronger value for more added value、Innovative and knowledgeable industry departments。What views do you hold this?

　　O'Neill:All countries and regions hope to have a lot of high income、High productivity job opportunities。Xingxing than saying，If you want to succeed, you must show your competitive advantage，Create a product favored by people around the world。China will achieve a lot of results in this regard。But in my opinion，More importantly，China needs to successfully increase the proportion of consumption to GDP to more than 50%，Even increased to more than 60%。until then，China will be more prosperous、Stable，and more difficult to be affected by the United States' policy on China。