Bet365 app download A study display，Existing energy transformation technology cost prediction method underestimated the role of technological progress on reducing costs。

July 1，Italy European -Mediterranean Climate Change Center official website reports，Laura Diaz Anadon, a professor of climate change policy at Cambridge University in the United Kingdom, systematically compared the performance of different methods when predicting the cost of energy transformation technology。The research results were published in the recent "National Academy of Sciences"。

bet365 best casino games Anadong thinks，Forecasting is very important for the plan to slow down climate change，To formulate reliable、Desert policy and business plan with high cost benefits，It is necessary to accurately predict the cost of energy technology。But，Due to the idea of ​​technology、R & D、Systematic and application is part of a more complex adaptive system，and involved the interconnected behavior subject and institution，Therefore, it is difficult to predict the prospects of various technologies。Current，There is a series of probability prediction methods used to estimate the cost of energy transformation technology in the future，The two most commonly used are experts and model -based methods。Experts quote how to refer to the opinions of obtaining authoritative professionals bet365 Play online games on a certain question，Frequently use in the case of insufficient data。Model -based method refers to the use of one or more variables in the existing available data，Predict the future trend。Compare the effects of these two prediction methods，helps to ensure that scientific researchers and analysts are evaluated in a comprehensive assessment、Analysis of cost benefits、Master more empirical in policy formulation。

Researchers based on data from the past few years，Use experts to lead methods and model -based methods，The cost of 6 energy transformation technology in 2019 is predicted，and compare the prediction results with the real data of 2019。results show，The frequency of real values ​​in 2019 based on the value range predicted based on the model method，Bet365 lotto review obviously higher than the results obtained by the experts' method; the median -based medium number based on the model method is closer to the real level of 2019。but，Both methods have underestimated the impact of technological progress。but but，The actual speed of technological progress is faster than experts and model predictions. This situation can continue in the future，It is not yet possible to judge。Another，Because this research only involves 6 technologies，It cannot be believed that the performance of the model method based on the model method is better than the expert outlet。

In the context of urgently need to formulate deep -carbon policies worldwide，This research provides a new direction for future research。Experts lead the method to improve bet365 best casino games methodology，Data challenges of many key energy technology based on model methods requires。International organizations and other institutions should continue to improve data collection and release capabilities，Further research and development method of reflecting the relationship between energy structure and technical costs。Push over time、Available data increase，Scientists should target more energy technology，The gap between the prediction results of the different probability prediction methods and the real situation。

　　（Wang Youran/Compilation）