Bet365 app download In recent months，The Federal Reserve is to inhibit inflation continuously interest rate hikes，Heated discussion on the risk of the US economic recession in all parties。December 14, 2022，The Fed announced that the federal fund interest rate target range was raised to 4.25%-4.5%，reached the highest level in the past 15 years。A few days ago，Economists at Stanford University in the United States have published an analysis of the recent US economic situation。

March 2021，US inflation rate is 2.6%，slightly higher than the Fed's 2%of the inflation rate target; only 3 months later，The inflation rate has doubled (5.4%); since then, it has risen all the way，9.1%in June 2022; starting in July，The bet365 live casino games inflation rate gradually decreases，But it has been maintained at more than 7%。

Professor of Economics at Stanford University、John B. Taylor, the former deputy minister of the United States Finance in charge of international affairs, said，The increase in inflation rate in the United States was so large in the 1960s and 1970s，But that happened in 12 years，instead of rising significantly in just one year this time。Taylor pointed out，Monetary policy is the key cause of inflation in the United States。October 2019，Federal fund interest rate is 1.83%，Decline to the inflation rate goal below，Then it fell straight to 0.05% in April 2020，This extremely low level lasted to February 2022 (0.08%)。May to October 2022，Federal Fund interest rate rose from 0.77%to 3.83%，but still significantly lower than the inflation rate。The gap between the federal fund interest rate and the inflation rate is that it has never bet365 live casino games been before the 1970s。

Taylor proposed the famous monetary policy rules "Taylor Rule" in 1993，The gap between the target inflation rate and the actual inflation rate、The gap between potential output and actual output，Calculate the appropriate short -term nominal policy interest rate，so that the central bank can stabilize economic activities。Calculated with the Taylor Law，The Fed needs to further increase interest rates to reduce the inflation rate to 2%。Taylor Call，Experience indicates，If the Fed clearly improves the necessity of interest rates and executes it like this，It will not cause the economic recession that many people are worried about; if I don’t act now，The risk of more serious economic recession will increase after increasing。

John H. Cochrane, a senior researcher at the Hoover Research Institute of Stanford University, talks，Inflation tends to reduce in the period of economic bet365 best casino games recession，Accelerate during economic prosperity。The Federal Reserve is based on this correlation that the economic recession is the only way to curb inflation，But this does not take into account the possibility of stagnation inflation (accompanied by the economic recession of inflation)。Starty inflation performance is a high inflation rate、Low economic growth rate、High unemployment rate。Some countries with financial difficulties，It is easy to have inflation when economic downturn。This situation may appear in the United States soon。

Generally speaking，The Fed's approach to curb inflation is to push the economy to the direction of decline，Targeting part of the economy depends on low credit to decelerate。That is to say，I hope that "recession power" can offset inflation，But it will not really cause recession。Current，People are worried that the tightening of monetary policy in order to suppress bet365 Play online games inflation will trigger an economic recession。From the perspective of Kokron，The inflation of the United States in the past year is largely due to the loose monetary policy during the epidemic period，If there are no other negative events and more expansion fiscal policies，The Federal Reserve does not need to "excessive force" lead to economic recession，Inflation will also slowly reduce -in many cases, inflation will subscribe by itself。other，Powerful supply -side policy also helps reduce inflation。

Kelon said，Economic recession often occurs with other negative events，If the financial crisis、Currency or credit policy on a large scale、Surgery in the crude oil market、End of the overheating period of certain industries, etc.。but but，These incidents are often a factor of intensified economic decline，instead of the real reason。Another，People often exaggerate the influence of economic recession in the entire bet365 Play online games historical process。A bad economic recession may cause a decline in national income levels by 5%，But long -term economic growth can make up for these losses。"The economic recession is indeed annoying，But we should focus more on long -term growth。”

　　（Wang Youran/Compilation）