All the time，Basic theories about scientific and technological changes，Discovery and invention are endogenous processes，The knowledge accumulated in the past makes future progress possible。Over the past half century，New scientific and technological knowledge is growing exponentially，Creating conditions ripe for significant progress。However，Some bet365 bonus code louisiana findings，The speed of innovation and scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana productivity are declining，The driving force of technological progress on economic growth also tends to weaken。To this，The academic community has proposed various explanations。For example，The “low-hanging fruit” has been plucked—innovations that can quickly increase productivity are available；The "burden of knowledge" is increasing - the impact of innovation on the number of scientific researchers and their degree of specialization、The requirements for education level “rise with the accumulation of knowledge”。There are also scholars who use quantitative methods，Exploring why disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana is declining、Scope and extent。current，What is the level of innovation and breakthrough in scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana around the world，Is there a trend of slowing down development？What are the factors and mechanisms that determine or affect breakthrough progress in scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana？How should we view the decline of disruptive scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana in certain fields？Our reporter recently interviewed relevant scholars on these issues。

　　Distinguish between consolidating achievements and bet365 bonus code louisiana achievements

Russell Funk, associate professor at the University of Minnesota Carlson School of Management, was published on the website of the British magazine Nature in January、Article "The Disruptiveness of bet365 bonus code louisiana and Patents Diminishes Over Time" co-authored by PhD student Michael Park and Professor Erin Leahey of the School of Social Sciences at the University of Arizona。The article says，bet365 bonus code louisiana and patent breakthroughs published after the mid-20th century、The possibility of pushing science and technology in new directions is becoming less and less likely。

The samples of this study are divided into paper group and patent group。The paper group contains 24659076 scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana papers (published from 1945 to 2010) included in the scientific literature citation database "ScienceNet"；Patent group includes 3,912,353 patents (issued from 1976 to 2010) included in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office’s “Visual Patent” database。Fink et al. also used other data sources to validate their core findings，Includes digital library "Journal Storage"、American Physical Society Corpus、Microsoft Academic Graph、Biomedical and life science literature search engine "Public Healthcare"。

First，Fink and others based on the traditional theory of technological change，Distinguish between "consolidation" and "subversion" of scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana results。Consolidating results and improving existing knowledge、Consolidate the status quo，For example, Austrian-American theoretical physicist、The "Kohn-Shen equation" created by theoretical chemist Walter Kohn and Chinese-American physicist Shen Lujiu；Disruptive achievements subvert and obsolete existing knowledge，Driving science and technology in new directions，For example, American biologist、Geneticist James Dewey Watson and British biologist、The double helix structure of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) discovered by biophysicist Francis Crick。

Next，Fink et al. used the “Consolidation Disruption Index” (CD index) to classify samples。Their idea is，Set a certain paper or patent as P，If P is consolidative，Subsequent bet365 bonus code louisiana that cites P is more likely to also cite P’s previous bet365 bonus code louisiana，Because the knowledge involved is related；If P is subversive，Subsequent bet365 bonus code louisiana that cites P is unlikely to cite P’s previous bet365 bonus code louisiana，Because the correlation of knowledge is weak。The Consolidation Disruption Index ranges from -1 to 1，The higher the index, the more subversive，The lower the index, the stronger the consolidation。Fink et al. calculated the Consolidation Disruption Index “CD5” for each paper and each patent 5 years after publication，And CD5 is not less than 0.25 as a sign of strong subversion。For example，CD5 of Cohen-Shen equation is -0.22，The CD5 of the DNA double helix structure is 0.62，Therefore the latter is a highly disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana。

　　Disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana in social sciences and natural sciences is weakening

Calculation result display，1945-2010，CD5 average of social science papers from 0.52 dropped to 0.04，Decrease of 91.9%；CD5 average of natural science papers from 0.36 reduced to 0，100% decrease。1980-2010，CD5 average of patents in the field of computers and communications from 0.30 reduced to 0.06，Decreased by 78.7%；The average CD5 value of patents in the pharmaceutical field is from 0.38 dropped to 0.03，Decrease of 91.5%。Whether it is a paper or a patent，Their disruptiveness declined more rapidly earlier in the period covered by this study；The disruptive nature of patents began to stabilize from 2000 to 2005。Overall，Since the second half of the 20th century，The disruptive nature of papers and patents in various scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana fields is decreasing。

The weakening of disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana is also reflected in the language level。Fink et al. calculated the “symbol-like ratio” (ratio of original words to all words) for titles and abstracts of papers and patents。1945-2010，The quasi-symbol ratio of paper titles in different fields dropped by 76.5%—88%；1980-2010，The ratio of symbol-like characters to characters in patent titles in different fields dropped by 32.5%—81%。1992-2010，The symbol-to-symbol ratio of the paper abstract decreased by 23.1%—38.9% (data before 1992 not available)；1980-2010，The symbol-to-symbol ratio of the patent abstract decreased by 21.5%—73.2%。Fink and others also discovered，There are more and more authors of papers and patents using words that have appeared in previous bet365 bonus code louisiana titles in their titles。

In addition to the reduced diversity and novelty of words，Changes in the use of words with specific meanings also reflect the weakening of bet365 bonus code louisiana subversiveness。By comparing papers published in 1950 and 2010 and patents issued in 1980 and 2010，Can see，Express Creation、Discovered、Reduced words for perceiving new things，Expression improvement、Application、Added words for assessing existing knowledge。

In order to determine whether the decline in disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana is relative or absolute，Fink et al. divided the CD5 of all samples into 5 intervals (below 0、0—0.25、0.25—0.5、0.5—0.75、0.75—1)，And perform detailed analysis on samples with CD5 not lower than 0。Result display，During the period covered by this study，Although the total number of papers and patents increased，But the increment mainly comes from 0-0.25 interval，CD5 is higher than 0.25The number of papers and patents has not changed significantly。This is to say，The absolute number of disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana remains roughly unchanged。However，The distribution of disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana in different fields changes over time。For example，There have always been more disruptive papers in the field of life sciences but they have been decreasing，Increase of disruptive papers in technology fields；Reduction in disruptive patents in chemical and mechanical fields，Increase of disruptive patents in the computer field。

　　“The burden of knowledge” affects the achievement of disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana results

Fink and others explored the causes of the above phenomenon from several aspects。First，Similar explanation of the weakening of disruptiveness of papers and patents in various fields，The "low-hanging fruit being picked" has limited explanatory power - "low-hanging fruit" in all fields at the same time、The possibility of being "plucked" at a similar speed is very small。Further calculations show，Domain-specific factors have very little impact on the disruptiveness of papers and patents；In comparison，The author’s influence is greater。For researchers who enter a certain field later，The "burden of knowledge" may be heavier，Greater specialization in academic training，Therefore，They conduct their own bet365 bonus code louisiana based on more limited existing knowledge，It’s harder to achieve disruptive results。

Secondly，Fink et al.’s analysis found，The weakening of disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana and the decline in the quality of science and technology、The characteristics of the data used in the study or the characteristics that underpin the Disruption Index，and academic publishing、There is no obvious correlation among factors such as changes in citation and authorship methods。

Finally，Fink et al. used citations to study diversity、Self-referencing average、Cited to study the three proxy indicators of average "age"，Examined the relationship between knowledge growth and the subversive nature of scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana，Obtained three key findings。First, the diversity of cited bet365 bonus code louisiana has decreased，This shows that the scope of the authors of papers and patents to use existing knowledge has narrowed。And，The top 1% of most cited studies are not only being cited more and more，Their semantic diversity is also decreasing。In other words，Paper and patent authors increasingly cite the same existing bet365 bonus code louisiana，And the topics that have been studied are becoming more and more similar。The second is the increase in the average self-citation，This also shows that authors of papers and patents are increasingly relying on very familiar knowledge。Third, the average “age” of cited studies has increased。This metric is often used to measure the utilization of old knowledge，Its rise suggests that paper and patent authors may be struggling to keep up with the pace of knowledge expansion，But rely on older ones、More familiar knowledge。These three points indicate，Papers and patents build on more limited existing knowledge。Regression model analysis display，The scope of cited bet365 bonus code louisiana has narrowed、Self-reference increase、Increases in citations to older bet365 bonus code louisiana are both negatively correlated with scientific disruptiveness。

Based on the above analysis，Fink and others speculated，Even though the view that “knowledge growth is an endogenous process” may be correct，It also requires scientists to have broad exposure to existing knowledge；With the expansion of the total amount of knowledge，This is harder to do，Because researchers need to increase their level of specialization to achieve career advancement。According to Leahy’s bet365 bonus code louisiana “It’s not just about productivity: Visibility and specialization are good for academic income”，Researchers with a higher degree of specialization are more productive，And higher productivity increases visibility or popularity，The latter has a direct impact on wages、Significant positive impact。

　Adjusting the scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana incentive mechanism can accelerate disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana

Mikko Packalen, associate professor of economics at the University of Waterloo in Canada, told this reporter，Scientists naturally view science as a cumulative process，Today’s scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana activities benefit from the ideas left by our predecessors、Tools and Methods。Many components of the scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana system - journals、Academic groups、Academic institutions created within the past 400 years，Gradually enriching the historical memory of past scientific achievements，Reinforces the cumulative nature of scientific discovery。Mid 20th century，Citation index for academic journals launched，People can go faster、Clearly quantify the impact of each study on subsequent bet365 bonus code louisiana。Present，Citation measurement is everywhere，Quantifying the cumulative aspects of bet365 bonus code louisiana activity is convenient (although not perfect)。This drives more and more researchers to engage in consolidation bet365 bonus code louisiana that focuses on accumulation，Disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana is less popular because it cannot be easily quantified。

Brian T, Professor of Finance at Yale University, USA. Kelly (Bryan T. Kelly）、In the study "Measuring Long-term Technological Innovation" published in 2021 by Dimitris Papanikolaou, professor of finance at Northwestern University, and others，Analysis of the United States Government from 1840 to 2010、Non-profit organization、Patent documents submitted by listed and unlisted companies。According to the study，One thing that distinguishes the current era from all previous eras is: the past，bet365 bonus code louisiana innovation occurs in many different technology fields；Today，bet365 bonus code louisiana innovations almost all come from the fields of computers and digital technology。In other words，The scope of technological breakthroughs narrows。

Parker Allen said，A common explanation for the decline in scientific disruption is that the great scientific mysteries have largely been revealed，It is difficult for people to produce more disruptive innovations。Although this "stagnation theory" is popular，But it may be wrong。History，Many famous scientists believe that mankind has solved all important scientific mysteries，Technological progress will inevitably stagnate；However，Every time，Scientific pessimism was quickly proven wrong。The development of science and technology may be naturally cyclical，But considering the huge scale of investment in many scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana fields nowadays，Maybe this cycle should be shorter，Disruptive innovation should be more widely distributed。

In Parker Allen’s opinion，Changes in scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana incentive mechanisms have led to the “decline” of disruptive innovation；Consolidative bet365 bonus code louisiana is more attractive to today’s scientists than riskier, disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana，This largely stems from assessing bet365 bonus code louisiana performance based on citations。Under such motivation，The best strategy to get more citations for your bet365 bonus code louisiana and thereby improve your scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana “performance” is，Join an area where there is already a lot of bet365 bonus code louisiana。This also means that the scientific community can accelerate disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana by adjusting incentives。For example，Start measuring beyond “citation impact”，Especially the innovative nature of bet365 bonus code louisiana，This can now be easily accomplished using text analytics and machine learning algorithms。

Parker Allen’s special reminder，“Disruption” should not be the only goal of scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana。A healthy scientific system includes three types of bet365 bonus code louisiana: the first type is exploratory bet365 bonus code louisiana in the strict sense，To explore new scientific directions，The vast majority of such studies end in failure。The second category is breakthrough、Disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana，A very small number of exploratory studies finally lead to transformative discoveries after years of seemingly fruitless searches。The third category is gradual、Consolidation bet365 bonus code louisiana，That’s a breakthrough、The development of disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana，This type of bet365 bonus code louisiana brings fruitful application results in one or more scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana fields。

Therefore，The central challenge facing policymakers is how to promote these three types of bet365 bonus code louisiana simultaneously。If funding is not provided for extensive exploratory bet365 bonus code louisiana，Graduality is also impossible、Consolidation bet365 bonus code louisiana。Since scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana evaluation began to emphasize citation measurement，bet365 bonus code louisiana funding agencies and university administrators have systematically ignored the benefits of exploratory bet365 bonus code louisiana for nearly half a century，This creates the current scientific “drought”。bet365 bonus code louisiana funders and managers cannot focus solely on measuring scientific output (number of papers published、Number of citations, etc.)，The level of scientific investment should also be measured (whether a bet365 bonus code louisiana is committed to exploring new scientific directions)。

　　The balance between “bet365 bonus code louisiana” and “subversion”

John Van Reenen, professor of economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told this reporter，New scientific ideas grow endogenously based on old ideas，This idea has been popular for hundreds of years。It fits people’s intuition，Also confirmed by data。According to standard endogenous growth theory，When the number of scientific researchers is fixed，The economic growth rate is also fixed。This can be expressed by a simple equation: Economic growth rate = scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana productivity × number of scientific researchers。However，Reality is not that simple: when the volume of knowledge increases，People study longer，Harder to find new ideas、Achieve disruptive results，Need to offset the decline in scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana productivity by continuing to increase scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana investment。

Renan and Nicholas Bloom, professor of economics at Stanford University, USA、Charles I. Jones (Charles I. Jones) and others published the bet365 bonus code louisiana results in 2020 "Are New Ideas Getting Harder to Find?"？》mentioned，Inspect multiple industries、Discover products and companies，US scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana productivity decreased by an average of 5% per year from 1971 to 2014.3%；If you want to maintain the same economic growth rate，The number of effective scientific researchers (not limited to academia) needs to be doubled every 13 years。However，Renan thinks，There are still steps the scientific community can take to advance disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana，For example，Increase resource support for innovation activities；Encourage healthy competition；Encourage researchers to move freely between institutions and countries；Give disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana greater freedom and more funding in bet365 bonus code louisiana funding。

John P, Professor at the School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA. Walsh (John P. Walsh) told this reporter，“Standing on the shoulders of giants” is a long-established view on the progress of science and technology。In his opinion，A key reason why science is becoming less disruptive may be，Whether within one country or across different countries，The number of scientific researchers mainly engaged in consolidation bet365 bonus code louisiana has increased。This may explain why the absolute number of highly disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana has not changed much，And a reduced proportion across all studies。

Proposed by Walsh，It is not appropriate to place too high a value on disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana。First，Is the decline in scientific disruption really a “problem”，Unclear，This may also be a sign of the maturation of the scientific system - researchers are putting more energy into exploring the possible impacts of specific bet365 bonus code louisiana directions，Instead of exploring new directions。Secondly，In the study by Fink et al.，The significant decreases in the CD5 curves of both papers and patents occurred earlier in the period covered by this study，Gradually eased later；This seems to indicate that the decline in subversion has stopped，A new balance is reached。Determine whether this is a good thing，The rewards of different types of bet365 bonus code louisiana tracks need to be considered，Consolidative bet365 bonus code louisiana has also brought many very important scientific discoveries。

Walsh isn’t sure it’s wise to push too hard for disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana。Ensuring a balance between “consolidation” and “subversion” may be more beneficial to the development of science and technology，Attributing too high a value to "disruption" may lead people to deviate from scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana and technology paths that can bring tangible returns。“Some media reports have interpreted Fink et al.’s findings as a problem that needs to be addressed through change，I don’t think so，There is no clear evidence that increasing the proportion of highly disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana would be better。"Walsh said，Consolidative bet365 bonus code louisiana moves existing fields forward，Disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana opens up new paths，Constantly changing paths can interfere with people moving forward on their current path。Therefore，Compared to constantly exploring new directions、Ignore exploring the significance and impact of existing findings，It may be preferable that the scientific system remains moderately "subversive"。

　Artificial intelligence is not yet able to lead disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana

Recently，Powerful new generation artificial intelligence such as ChatGPT has attracted strong interest from the scientific community and the general public。Will the booming development and popular application of artificial intelligence trigger a surge in disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana？

Park thinks，Idea generation largely determines the subversive level of a bet365 bonus code louisiana。Artificial intelligence may help improve the efficiency of some scientific bet365 bonus code louisiana processes，For example, literature review、Data Analysis、Writing，But thought generation will remain largely a human task。

Walsh’s opinion is，Artificial intelligence may boost solid bet365 bonus code louisiana，Because many artificial intelligence algorithms are essentially inferred based on existing patterns。However，Maybe AI can help people find disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana ideas by writing algorithms that value disruption。Is this useful?，It remains to be seen in the future。Lei Nan talks，The potential for disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana using artificial intelligence is considerable，But it’s too early to say。Many emerging technologies appear revolutionary at first glance，But it may take an extremely long time to really have an impact。

Parker Allen said，Artificial intelligence such as ChatGPT fascinates the public because they can do more than just generate new text，And similar to human works。Since existing artificial intelligence is based on human-created text、Code and other training，Their "ideas" do not significantly deviate from the facts and opinions found in human works。Before AI has the ability to formulate and test entirely new hypotheses，Unlikely to inspire much disruptive innovation。However，Artificial intelligence may help disruptive bet365 bonus code louisiana in another way: if consolidated bet365 bonus code louisiana can be partially or fully completed by artificial intelligence in the future，will force human scientists to devote their energy to activities where they have more advantages-new、Breakthrough exploration。