Visit researcher at Karolge College of Oxford University、Professor Rongxiu, the University of London University of London, British School of Business，Employment and human resources management and business and management research。

The theme of this forum is "Civilization in the Great Change: China and the World"，I plan to explore this topic from an uncertain macro perspective。My speech will mainly explore "the necessity of uncertain times and critical thinking"。The new crown pneumonia epidemic and the current Russian and Ukraine conflict are reminding people that the world is constantly changing。How to deal with this uncertain era is the key。Want to figure out this problem，First of all, you must understand what the uncertainty is，and how to use critical thinking。

Let's talk about a substantial topic first: uncertainty。The keyword "big change" about the theme of this forum，You may think of many other synonyms in your mind，Among them, there will definitely be the word "turbulent era"，A lot of related Bet365 app download works have been released。Master of Management Peter Drucker once said，The biggest danger in the turbulent era is not turbulent itself，Instead, still use the past logic。I think this sentence directly hit the key。Similar words include "repeated impermanence", "unclear" and "extremely complicated"，etc.。

So，In terms of uncertainty itself，We can sort out the following three situations。The first case is the ideal，Decision makers can make a decision with a complete determination。They clearly know what consequences will each move bring，At the same time, you also know various alternative plans。Although this ideal decision -making environment is not common，But it is still possible to exist。The second situation is the most，That is, decision makers must make a decision under uncertainty，I don’t know what results will be。Of course，Risk between the two，Make decisions when there are risks，That is, decision makers know the possibility of various results。They know the consequences of their decisions that may bring，But they can’t be completely determined，It is impossible to determine any uncertainty，They make decisions when they are risky。

About this question，The most famous example is the concept of "Johari Window" proposed by Rufte Bet365 app download and Yayim in the 1950s of the US Minister of Defense Ramsfield in 2002，Effectively sort out a way of thinking about uncertainty。He said that，Known known is existing，That is to say，We know we know。Of course，He also proposed the unknown unknown。He said，This means that we know some things we don’t know。But the most classic is the "unknown unknown" he proposed，It means that we don’t know that we don’t know this。It sounds like a little cloud，You don’t know you don’t know。Because as far as we know,，Many uncertainty is very different。

If the degree and speed of uncertainty are different，People have different degrees of acceptance，In such a constant era，How should we deal with it? This requires a way of thinking。From a historical and traditional perspective，Our way of thinking is mainly dead memories。Dead memo is a traditional way of learning，In fact, it is a prepared learning method，or standardized thinking。The other side of the standardized thinking is critical thinking，Just when you encounter a problem，Find countermeasures through thinking。Critical thinking skills are different from dead memories，It emphasizes the ability to solve problems。and to cope with the new crown pneumonia epidemic，bet365 live casino games Need creativity、Analysis and communication skills，The most important thing is open thinking。Both the above skills to get critical thinking。

Maybe someone will ask: What's so important? The reason why critical thinking is important，It is because we are thinking、Discussion，and the process of drawing the conclusion with prejudice。The reason why we have prejudice is the so -called "faulty error"，That is, I only see what we want to see。Similar concepts such as "confirm errors"，That is, we tend to see things that can confirm our ideas。We selectively adopt the facts that can prove our point，But ignore other facts，Therefore, I am more convinced of my point of view。We all exist in this cognitive error，But at least we must realize the existence of the errors，I only see what I want to see，or confirm the error，Just look for what we want to see。

Critical thinking another very important reason is，All sectors of society need to adapt to change。If you want to adapt，Develop in a good direction，Cooperation sharing resources is a good way。Therefore, everyone needs to have critical thinking。The more people who can fully consider facts and problems and express their views，As a result, the better everyone is。and want to do this，You need to meet two conditions: bet365 best casino games First, exchange ideas，Second, keep calm。That is what I call "rational debate"。Rawnal debate generally contains the following points: the first is to cover all the facts; secondly, respect the opinions of experts，For the so -called facts，Be able to accept different judgments，Perspective discussion is clear，Respect the basis of the positive and negative sides of the point of view，or the two sides of all perspectives; to recognize the limitations of the point of view，The final purpose must be legitimate，We must bring a wide range of benefits。Therefore, want to achieve rational debate，It is necessary to achieve rational persuasion and rational discussion。

How should we cultivate and learn critical thinking? in my opinion，Education and interconnection work is a good way。I want to summarize with an Einstein's famous saying，This has to be returned to the question of choosing a dead memorization or a critical thinking。Einstein believes that education is not just learning facts。He said，Education is not to learn specific knowledge，but to train the ability of brain thinking。This angle of viewing education is very good，Is a broad、Comprehensive point of view。Education is by no means dead memorization bet365 live casino games and learning facts，Although they are also important。Education to train the brain will think，Critical thinking，Skills for mastered critical thinking，Learn analysis、Communication、Collect evidence、Reason debate。

Back to the topic of today's forum，Great change also means uncertainty。We just learned it，Whether at level、strength or speed，Uncertainty is different from person to person，The key lies in the degree of acceptance of changes。Judging from the dimension of uncertain avoidance of Gilt Hofstad，Obvious people、Some countries have a high degree of acceptance of uncertainty or huge changes，and some people and the country are more afraid of changes，So you will try to avoid uncertainty。，In the era full of changes and uncertainty，Critical thinking is very important for all of us。Whether it is for society、Commercial or academic circles are like this，And I think this role will not disappear。Last，I want to call on people to actively cultivate critical thinking，Especially in this deep change era，Not just for China，Also among other parts of the world。