Visiting Research Fellow at Kellogg College, University of Oxford、Emeritus Professor, Bayesian Business School, City College, University of London, UK，Employment and Human Resources bonus bet365 and Business and bonus bet365 Research in Asia。

The theme of this forum is "Civilization in Great Changes: China and the World"，I intend to approach this topic from a macro perspective of uncertainty。My speech will mainly discuss "Uncertain Times and the Necessity of Critical bonus bet365"。The COVID-19 epidemic and the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine are reminding people that the world is constantly changing。How to deal with this era of uncertainty is the key。Want to clarify this issue，First of all, we must understand what uncertainty is，And how to use critical bonus bet365 under uncertainty。

Let’s talk about a substantive topic first: uncertainty。Keywords about the theme of bonus bet365 forum "Big Change"，Many other synonyms may come to mind，There will definitely be the word "turbulent times" in it，Many related works have been published。Management guru Peter Drucker once said，The greatest danger in turbulent times is not the turmoil itself，But still use the logic of the past to do things。I think bonus bet365 sentence hits home。Similar words include "erratic", "unclear" and "extremely complex"，etc.。

Therefore，In terms of uncertainty itself，We can sort out the following three situations。The first situation is the most ideal，Decision makers are able to make decisions with complete certainty。They clearly know the consequences of every action，Also aware of alternatives。Although bonus bet365 ideal decision-making environment is not common，But it is still possible。The second situation is the worst，That is, decision makers must make decisions under uncertainty，I don’t know what the outcome will be。Of course，In between is risk，Making decisions under risk，That is, the decision-maker knows the possibilities of various outcomes。They understand the possible consequences of their decisions，But they are not entirely sure，It is impossible to determine any uncertainty，They make decisions at risk。

About this issue，The most famous example is that in 2002, then US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld used the concept of the "Johari Window" proposed by Ruft and Ingham in the 1950s，Effectively sort out a way of bonus bet365 about uncertainty。He once said so，The known known exists，In other words，We know we know。Of course，He also proposed the known unknown。He said，This means that we know there are things we don’t know。But the most classic one is the “unknown unknown” he proposed，Refers to the fact that we don’t know that we don’t know it。Sounds a bit confusing，You don’t know you don’t know。Because as far as we know，Many uncertainties are very different。

If the degree and speed of uncertainty are different，People have different acceptance levels，In such a changing era，How should we respond？This requires a way of bonus bet365。From a historical and traditional perspective，Our way of bonus bet365 is mainly rote memorization。Rote memorization is the traditional way of learning，In fact, it is a prepared way of learning，Or called standardized bonus bet365。The other side of standardized bonus bet365 is critical bonus bet365，That’s when you encounter a problem，Find solutions through bonus bet365。Critical bonus bet365 skills are different from rote learning，It emphasizes the ability to solve problems。To deal with the new coronavirus epidemic，Need creativity、Analytical and communication skills，The most important thing is to have an open mind。A combination of the above skills can lead to the ability to think critically。

Some people may ask: Why is this important？Why critical bonus bet365 is important，Because we are bonus bet365、Discussion，And the process of reaching conclusions is biased。The reason why we are biased is the so-called "consensus bias"，That is, wishful bonus bet365 and only seeing what we want to see。A similar concept is "confirmation bias"，That is, we tend to see things that confirm our ideas。We selectively adopt facts that prove our point of view，But ignore other facts，Thereby becoming more and more convinced of one’s point of view。We all have this cognitive bias，But we must at least be aware of the existence of desirability bias，That is, you only see what you want to see，Or confirmation bias，Looking for what we want to see。

Another very important reason for critical bonus bet365 is，All sectors of society need to adapt to changes。If you want to adapt，To develop in a good direction，Cooperation and sharing resources is a good way。So everyone needs to think critically。The more people who can fully consider the facts and issues and express their opinions，The better the outcome for everyone。And want to do this，You need to meet two conditions: first, exchange ideas，The second is to stay calm。That’s what I call “rational debate”。Reasonable debate generally includes the following points: First, it must cover all the facts；The second thing is to respect the opinions of experts，In response to the so-called facts，Be able to accept different judgments，Points of view should be clearly stated，Respect the basis for both sides of the point of view，Or the two sides of all opinions；Acknowledge the limitations of your perspective，The ultimate purpose must be legitimate and beneficial，To be able to bring widespread benefits。So we want to achieve rational debate，You need to achieve rational persuasion and rational discussion。

　How should we cultivate and acquire critical bonus bet365？In my opinion，Education and Internet cooperation are good ways。I would like to sum it up with a famous quote from Einstein，This has to go back to the question of whether to choose rote memorization or critical bonus bet365。Einstein believed that education is not just about learning facts。He said，Education is not about learning specific knowledge，But to train the brain’s bonus bet365 ability。This is a good perspective on education，is a broad、Comprehensive view。Education is never about memorizing and learning facts，Although they are also important。Education must train the brain to think，Think critically，Master critical bonus bet365 skills，Learn to analyze、Communication、Collect evidence、Rational debate。

Return to the topic of today’s forum，Great changes also mean uncertainty。We just learned that，No matter in level、Strength or speed, etc.，Uncertainty varies from person to person，The key lies in the acceptance of change。From the perspective of Geert Hofstadter’s uncertainty avoidance，Obviously some people、Some countries are more accepting of uncertainty or huge changes，Some people and countries are more afraid of change，So I try to avoid uncertainty。In addition，In an era full of change and uncertainty，Critical bonus bet365 is important for all of us。Whether it is for society、This is true for both business and academia，And I don’t think this effect will disappear。final，I want to call on people to take the initiative to cultivate critical bonus bet365，Especially in this era of profound change，Not just for China，Same for the rest of the world。