This newspaper comprehensively reports bet365 sports foreign media Accurately assess and predict armed conflicts、The impact of crises such as infectious diseases or natural disasters on the economy，Helps governments take timely measures to mitigate damage。A recent paper published in PNAS Nexus uses aggregate bet365 sports from economic sectors and more detailed granular bet365 sports to separately estimate the impact of the crisis on the economy，And found that the estimation results obtained by different types of bet365 sports vary greatly。

Fine-grained data refers to fragmentation、Data segmented as much as possible，It can adapt like a grain of sand to a container，arbitrarily shaped or processed according to the needs of the data scientist or analyst。Main author of this paper，Center for Complexity Science Network Economics in Vienna, Austria、Said Christian Diem, Senior Scientist, Supply Chain and Financial Markets Group，Fine-grained data is a key component for sound forecasting of dynamic economic systems。Dim et al. based on the actual empirical data on the bet365 sports the COVID-19 epidemic in early 2020 and the Hungarian Central Bank’s VAT microdata in 2019，1000 crisis simulation scenarios simulated，Analysis and comparison of different results of predicting the impact of the crisis on the economy based on different scenarios。

Value-added tax is a consumption tax levied on goods and services。From raw material production to finished product sales，It taxes every value-added link in the entire industrial chain。The 2019 Hungarian Central Bank VAT microdata collected by Diem et al. covers 243,399 companies，Reconstructed 1104141 pairs of supply relationships，Almost presents the economic situation of the entire Hungary。Stefan Thurner, President of the Center for Complexity Science in Vienna said，With this bet365 sports set，Researchers can gain a more complete understanding of what happens after a crisis，The interconnections and influences between various companies in the economy。

so far，Researchers mostly explain and analyze a country’s economic situation from the economic sector level。Discovered by Diem and others，If researchers use data on the 88 economic sectors defined by the EU as usual，So in 1000 crisis simulation scenarios，The bet365 sports every crisis is systematically underestimated by 37%。In comparison，Economic impact results calculated using company-level supply chain data，Closer to the actual recession in Europe in the second quarter of 2020。Dim concluded from this，When predicting the impact of the crisis on the economy from the economic sector level，People often draw more conservative conclusions than what the consequences actually are at the corporate level。

Diem concluded，Crisis simulation experiments based on fine-grained bet365 sports such as VAT information bet365 sports have multiple functions。It not only helps researchers understand the average losses across economic sectors，It can also calculate the extent to which individual companies in a certain department are affected by the crisis。Look at the details，Crisis simulation experiments can reveal which companies may be more seriously affected，Which ones are slightly affected，Not just an early warning that a certain crisis will cause an overall economic loss of 20% to a certain economic sector。What’s more important，Researchers can understand how and how crises spread across supply networks，and its impact on direct and indirect trading partners。

Diem thinks，In principle，One can use the VAT system to restore a country’s supply network。As of now，Over 160 countries have VAT systems，But only a dozen countries continue to collect bet365 sports that can be used to build supply networks，includes Spain、Belgium、Hungary、India and China。For countries such as Germany and Austria that do not collect VAT bet365 sports in the correct way，Dim’s suggestion，Small adjustments should be made to corporate VAT reporting formats，This will also reduce VAT fraud，Promote the digital transformation of corporate financial accounting。

(bet365 sports/Compiled)