The Federal Republic of Germany implements parliamentary democracy，The Bundestag is at the center of the country’s power structure，The so-called "German general election" refers to the federal parliamentary election held every four years。The latest general election occurred at the end of September 2021，736 members belonging to six different parties were elected (including 5 members without affiliation)。Among them，No political bet365 cricket odds's vote share ("bet365 cricket odds vote") reached 30%，A record since the reconstruction of the German bet365 cricket odds system after the war。The growth and decline in strength between the traditional two major "National Parties" (Volkspartei) and the smaller parties in the Bundestag is even more obvious: the votes and seat shares of the Alliance bet365 cricket odds (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds (SPD) are at record lows，Down by nearly half from its peak；For the first time, the vote share of the minor parties in the Bundestag exceeded that of the National Democratic bet365 cricket odds，The Green bet365 cricket odds (Alliance 90/The Greens)、The Liberal Democratic bet365 cricket odds (FDP) and the Alternative for Africa (AfD) both received more than 10% support。What’s more important to note is，Parties outside the chamber that failed to cross the electoral threshold also received as high as 9% of the vote。Visible，Germany’s political structure presents an unprecedented fragmentation，What the political scientist Giovanni Sartori calls a polarized multiparty system has taken shape。

　　The evolution of the German bet365 cricket odds system

Comparing the results of previous elections in the Federal Republic of Germany，The changes in its bet365 cricket odds system have a clear trajectory，It can be roughly observed and analyzed from two main stages。The overall characteristic of the first stage is the transformation from a two-bet365 cricket odds system to a two-and-a-half bet365 cricket odds system，Since the Green bet365 cricket odds successfully entered the Bundestag in 1983，Continued until the beginning of the 21st century。Before the Greens，The Alliance bet365 cricket odds and the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds have controlled about 90% of the seats for more than 20 consecutive years，Presenting a solid two-bet365 cricket odds hegemonic structure。The rapid development of the Green bet365 cricket odds and the Liberal Democratic bet365 cricket odds have strengthened the "third force"，At the same time, it also intensifies the competition for the role of "kingmaker"，Directly contributes to the stable pattern of the alliance between right-wing and left-wing parties。Afterwards，With the reunification of the two Germanys，The bet365 cricket odds of Democratic Socialism (PDS), which was reorganized from the former East German ruling bet365 cricket odds, also entered the Bundestag，But due to the surge in total seats，The power of the small parties has actually been relatively diluted。So at this stage，Although there are already three federal parties besides the two major national parties，But small parties often hold limited issues，There is a big gap with the Kuomintang in terms of strength and status，Still only plays a "half" role in the entire system。

The landmark events in the second stage of the change of the German bet365 cricket odds system are the split of the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds in 2005 and the rise of the Alternative bet365 cricket odds in 2013，The common result is that extreme forces continue to grow in German politics，Stable support groups have emerged on the far left and right of the ideological spectrum，The era of polarized multi-bet365 cricket odds system has officially arrived。First，Since the 21st century，The Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds’s ability to integrate left-wing forces has seriously declined，Shaken its status as a national bet365 cricket odds。Out of dissatisfaction with the Schröder government’s socio-economic policies，The "traditionalists" of the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds and the Democratic Socialist bet365 cricket odds jointly established the Left bet365 cricket odds (The Left)，Won 11 in the first general election in 2009.9% of votes，And in Brandenburg、Thuringia、Saxony and other five left-wing vote bases have suppressed the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds，Very strong performance。Secondly，The Coalition’s “middle line” has also been impacted，Pressure grows from the AfD。According to the Chapel Hill Expert Survey，The Alliance bet365 cricket odds has been very obvious in its social and cultural stance towards the center in recent years，Concentrated in the military service system、Compromises on nuclear power generation and other aspects。The AfD has taken a large number of targeted measures in this regard，Actively participate in competition among conservative voters。Survey shows，The AfD absorbed about 1 million Coalition voters in the 2017 election，And its support rate exceeds that of the League in eastern Germany，Jumped to the second largest political bet365 cricket odds。Therefore，Compared with the previous stage，In the current political landscape in Germany，The small parties in the Bundestag basically have no risk of "bubble"，The ability to contain the entire Democratic bet365 cricket odds has been significantly improved，The polarized system presented is already quite stable。

　　The National bet365 cricket odds’s cartelization and electoral dilemma

　　　　，The Alliance bet365 cricket odds and the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds dominate the competitive situation of the bet365 cricket odds system through their monopoly on the middle voter market，Small parties at the further end of the ideological spectrum often need to constantly adjust or even change their core positions to enter the mainstream power field。But as political society becomes increasingly polarized and policy issues become more complex and diverse，The traditional voter base and structure of each political bet365 cricket odds are undergoing profound changes。In the process，The cartelization between the Alliance bet365 cricket odds and the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds is not conducive to consolidating its base in the new competitive situation。

一，Due to the long-term monopoly of power by the Alliance bet365 cricket odds and the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds，The sharp decline in the number of bet365 cricket odds members and the increase in the proportion of public bet365 cricket odds members have become a pair of concomitant conditions，As an obvious starting point for the cartelization of political bet365 cricket odds organizations，“Guiding” increased public funding、Professional election methods、The natural occurrence of factors such as the reduction in the size of grassroots organizations，And such a result will produce a large number of negative spillover effects。Compared to the peak 30 years ago，The number of members of the Alliance bet365 cricket odds and the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds has dropped at an alarming rate，Over 40% and 60% respectively。The decline in the number of bet365 cricket odds members has led to a decrease in the total bet365 cricket odds dues，The main source of funding has shifted to public funding。The CDU’s public funding from finance is already its largest source of funding。The Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds relies more on public servants，The proportion of public bet365 cricket odds members was close to 40% at the beginning of this century，Only one-fifth of the original voter base—worker bet365 cricket odds members remains。Therefore，The number of activists who previously dominated various activities within the bet365 cricket odds has also shrunk accordingly，First-line grassroots organizations have become tools for executing the will of superiors，Reducing connection with traditional core voter base，The former “Workers’ bet365 cricket odds” turned to labeling itself as the “new middle class”，Seriously affecting the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds’s ability to integrate and absorb left-wing society。

　Second，The League and the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds frequently engage in cartel-like political alliances，Causes them to have a serious representative fracture problem in the new political ecology。It is an indisputable fact that the two major political parties have become more homogeneous in the political alliance，Strategies aimed at monopolizing the “middle voter” group ignore the growing size of the market for various emerging or radical issues，Gives more small parties the opportunity to enter high-level political platforms。In fact，Is a political alliance reasonable?，There are also many disputes within the two major parties。Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken, the former co-leaders of the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds who were directly elected by bet365 cricket odds members, believe that the civil service group within the bet365 cricket odds seeks more in the government led by the Alliance bet365 cricket odds. Compromise based on position，Greatly weakened the Social Democratic bet365 cricket odds’s ability to respond to social changes；On the CDU side，Current chairman Friedrich Merz has also publicly stated many times that the long-term center line has fixed the bet365 cricket odds in a limited political space，Grand alliances are rarely created in the current competition for ideological power in German society，The "all-inclusive" policy appeal is essentially a weak manifestation without a clear position and content。

　​​Structural advantages of minor parties in the Bundestag

Compared with the cartelized National bet365 cricket odds，The small parties in the German Bundestag have completely different power operation logic，In turn, it directly affects the production of bet365 cricket odds capabilities and its recent performance in the electoral market。First，In terms of stance and ideology，The Left bet365 cricket odds and the AfD are at the left and right ends of the spectrum，The Green bet365 cricket odds and Liberal Democratic bet365 cricket odds are relatively in the middle，They stabilize their basic base by maintaining their core demands，In addition, the bet365 cricket odds’s recognition is enhanced by its more radical policy goals in electoral activities，Continuously absorbing the social base that the National bet365 cricket odds cannot cover。For example，The Green bet365 cricket odds has continued to expand its policy guidelines in recent years，Except traditional climate、Outside the field of defense and diplomacy，The core appeal has been transformed into practical aspects with the theme of “new green”，Pay more attention to the "social ecology" part that is parallel to the natural ecology，Proposed to include grassroots social democratization、Protecting the rights of minority groups、Housing market reform、Policy visions such as fair distribution system，Successfully downplayed the fundamentalist overtones of its past。The AfD also behaved more maturely，Slightly thinner than earlier claims，Nowadays, identity politics is built as the core、Globalization-Eurozone-Immigration society and other multi-layered and rich policy frameworks，Accelerate the condensation of radical conservative ideology，Pay equal attention to the linkage effect between popular issues and the core positions of the bet365 cricket odds，Proactively stir up controversial social debate，Trying to maximize potential support。Therefore，In the current political ecology of Germany，Major small parties are better at taking advantage of social conditions of ideological polarization，Increase the visibility of policy programs，Continuously increasing “iron tickets”。

Secondly，The small parties have also made outstanding achievements in building bet365 cricket odds members and organizational systems。Overall view，The membership of small parties continues to grow，From less than 100,000 people at the beginning of this century to more than 250,000 people now。and，Different from the National bet365 cricket odds’s ever-degrading grassroots organizations and increasingly centralized decision-making structure，The small parties pay more attention to the institutional construction of the organizational system，Especially through the transformation of the bet365 cricket odds’s power structure，Restrict the size of the bet365 cricket odds’s intermediate levels and the power of public bet365 cricket odds members to the greatest extent。Actually，Many small parties appear in the image of criticizing the National bet365 cricket odds’s monopoly on political power，Opposing existing electoral collusion is an important mobilization method for small parties。In the process of strengthening self-construction，On the one hand, small parties empower downwards by setting up a highly transparent and democratic decision-making mechanism，Activated the grassroots and peripheral organizational systems，Form a positive power production mechanism that enhances the foundation of political parties，Changes that are more conducive to integrating the electoral market。On the other hand，The rapid development of mobile Internet and social media has given small parties that originally lacked information resources more opportunities to be "exposed" in the electoral market，By successfully absorbing increasingly "tribal" voters，Continuously enhance competitiveness。Among them，When the Green bet365 cricket odds was founded, it devolved a large number of decision-making powers on daily affairs to the grassroots，By establishing various working groups organized by grassroots bet365 cricket odds departments in the parliamentary group，Build a platform for connecting members and voters；At the same time, network technology is used to give each horizontal branch within the bet365 cricket odds the decision-making power on professional affairs，And provide strong support in terms of financial and personnel resources。Therefore，The Green bet365 cricket odds shows a characteristic of focusing on the grassroots and debureaucratization，Flexible、The free and relatively open operating model has also won the support of young voters。

　　(Author’s unit: School of Government, East China University of Political Science and Law)