Current，The world's unscrupulous changes have accelerated the evolution，Century epidemic affects far -reaching，The world enters a new turbulent change period。Facing the complex and severe external environment，The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China discusses the national security and overall national security concept in the form of special chapters，and comprehensively explain the dialectical relationship between development and security，Put forward "Guaranteeing a New Development Fair with New Security Laws"，firmly unswervingly implement the overall national security concept，For high -quality development and promote the modernization of Chinese -style modernization, internal and external environments。In the context of building a new security pattern，Re -understand the complex and changeable external environment and its impact on the internal security and development of my country，It will become a great reality driving force for international security theoretical innovation。

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Due to the high degree of liquidity of high degree of interconnection and risk，The safety environment faced by various countries is becoming increasingly complicated，Safety risks are also increasingly presenting systemic features。This systemicity is manifested on the one hand as the risk source continues to increase，The connotation and extension of national security are rich，Space -time span is unprecedentedly wide; on the other hand, bet365 Play online games it is manifested as a various types of security risks in a unprecedented system.。These are the correct understanding and analysis of the security environment for us、The source of the risk of prediction and its series of roads proposed a challenge，It also provides a possibility for expanding the theoretical border of security。

Traditional security studies are more focused on the issue of traditional security、External security，Pay more attention to the country on the subject of security，More dependence on the method of restorationism in the research method，Seek causal contact afterwards。but，This is a research idea born to deal with the characteristics of the safety risk of the industrial society，It may limit our globalization、understanding of security risks in the information age。For this，The overall national security concept came into being。The overall national security concept is essentially the system、Overall safety concept，Not only emphasizes the interwoven of various security issues、The mutual dependence of various security subjects，Mother -looking forward -looking research on safety risks。

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China further clarifies the core essential of the overall national security concept，Detailed explanation of the system dialectics of its "five elements"。Under the new security pattern，International Security Theoretical Research will face new mission and requirements，Follow history、Mechanical discussion and empirical verification of the classic safety theory，Also pay attention to the new features of security risks，Expansion of the space of classic security theory in the new era。

　　Security risk linkage and theoretical mechanism exploration 

If the new development pattern emphasizes the promotion of domestic bet365 best casino games large cycles and domestic and international dual cycles，Then the new security pattern is focusing on overall domestic and international security in risk regions、The "double coordination" of traditional and non -traditional security in the risk field。The key to the "double coordination" is to clarify the system linkage mechanism of security risks，To prevent and resolve major security risks。

The linkage of security risks refers to the coupling of various types of risks、superimposed、Upgrade，and eventually endanger national security phenomena。The research interest of the study of national security risks for a long time has a long history，But the focus of research has undergone multiple changes，Liech cross -space from the internal and external spaces that pay attention to safety risks，Cross -problem linkage between following the traditional security risk and non -traditional security risks，multi -dimensional linkage to pay attention to safety risks。Specifically，Safety risk linkage paths that are concerned about the existing research mainly include the horizontal linkage beyond the boundary of the national border and the vertical linkage of the bottom -up upgrade。

The horizontal linkage or internal and external linkage of security risk mainly refers to the evolution of international risks into domestic risks。There are two main paths generated by this safety risk。It one，Safety risks of natural spillover。Scholars at home and abroad at the beginning mainly focused on the spillover of traditional security risks，Including rebellion、Civil War and Revolution and other events surpass the spread of the border。With the expansion and emergence of new security connotations and safety issues，More and more scholars Bet365 app download turn their attention to the spillwalk effect of non -traditional security risks，Follow refugees、Environmental and public hygiene's crisis in the global diffusion and its threat and challenges to national security。Its two，Safety risks of artificial transfer。The theory of scapegoats and the theory of diverting sight provides an interpretation mechanism for this risk。Specifically，This kind of theory believes that when facing the domestic crisis，The country may either blame other countries，Either launch a foreign war、Stir up foreign military disputes，To transfer the sight of the people of the country。This approach is essentially spreading the domestic crisis to other countries，Objectively cause external security risks in other countries。

The vertical linkage of safety risk is mainly manifested as the risk of non -traditional security fields to the risk in the field of traditional security，Public safety risk rises to political security risks, etc.。where，One of the focus of international security research is the vertical linkage of national security risks caused by external forces，That is the interference in one country to other domestic politics，Catalytic internal security risk upgrade。International interference can be divided into concealed operations and direct interference，Specific expression forms support domestic opposition forces、Encourage reactionary public opinion、International pressure and military interference。

Generally speaking，In -depth analysis of the linkage mechanism of security risks with international security research，Provides academic foundations for subsequent studies，But there is still the following shortcomings。First，In terms of research content，bet365 best casino games Existing research still focuses on a single security risk situation or a single linkage dimension，It cannot systematically integrate a variety of situations or multi -dimensional risk linkage mechanisms，It also ignored the risk horizontal、Living system linkage。Next，In terms of research methods，Use historical data for statistical analysis，Still follow the restorer thinking to identify related factors that cause risk linkages，This makes it impossible to systematically analyze the linkage coupling relationship of security risks。Last，In terms of research purpose，There is both research that pays more attention to safety risks after the cause and effect test，Fewer application of the mechanism to the practice of warning prevention，Therefore, it is impossible to put forward specific practical and feasible countermeasures for how to prevent the linkage of major security risks。These all provide room for development for the next theoretical research。

　Internal and external conflict association and theoretical development attempt 

Conflict and war have always been the core concern of the international security field。Since the rise of the civil war in the late Cold War，The field of international security is simply divided into two directions: international conflict and civil war。Although some studies have begun to break the barriers of international conflict research and civil war research，But these two types of studies still retain relatively independent research space。But，In the era of globalization with high interconnection，The outbreak and impact of the conflict completely break through the traditional area、Limited time and space，Therefore, conflict Bet365 lotto review research should also further break the restrictions between national and categories。where，Special international security phenomenon that connects international conflicts and civil war，Internal and external conflict associations are worthy of widespread attention。

Internal and external conflict association emphasizes the cause and effect between domestic conflicts (crisis) and international conflicts (crisis)。The global impact of the current conflict of regional conflicts further indicates，The conflict in the era of globalization is increasingly presenting systemic features。Internal and external conflicts are also connected in a new system，This systemic feature is reflected in the direct impact of conflict (such as the results of the battlefield、range and public opinion development) difficult to control，It is also manifested as the difficulty of indirect impact (risk series).，This has a severe real challenge for the traditional international conflict theory，It also enlarged the cognitive limitations of human beings when understanding the complex system。Therefore，International security research requires the development of new internal and external conflict association theories，Both are conducive to promoting the dialogue between international conflicts and civil war.，It also enriched the understanding of internal affairs and diplomatic associations，It is more helpful to improve the academic interpretation of the theoretical theory of coordinating internal and external safety under the new security pattern。

　　(This article is the development of major security risks in the context of the new crown virus epidemic in Shanghai philosophy and social science planning of Shanghai Philosophy and Social Sciences.、Shanghai Pujiang Talent Plan to fund the "Prevent and Resolve Challenges and Countermeasure Research on Exotic Safety Risks" (21pjc076) phased results) 

(Author Unit: School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiaotong University)