China's economic growth rate in 2019 is expected to be 6.2%，Better completed the "6%-6.5%" goal set by the government work report，and continue to rank among the main economies around the world。Facing the complicated situation of obvious increase in risks at home and abroad，It is not easy to get such a result。but but，I also need to see，Since the second half of 2019, China's economy still faces a certain downward pressure。To achieve "steady growth"，my country’s monetary policy in 2019 has conducted many operations。First, I took two comprehensive reductions、One round of directional reduction operation，Llebility was released in a timely manner。The second is a multi -rate rate cut，Cumulative 1 -year loan basic interest rate (LPR) of 21 basis points (BP) throughout the year，Reduce public market operation (OMO) interest rate 5bp。Third, actively use re -loan、Reconstruction and mortgage supplementary loans，Guide financial institutions to increase private and small and micro enterprises、"agriculture, rural areas" and other weak links support for support。I think，I think，The intensity of monetary policy still needs to be improved，Effective and flexible and moderate。

Due to the current monetary policy adopted by the People's Bank of China, there are both quantitative monetary policies such as the reduction.，Price monetary policy such as interest rate cuts，Therefore, comprehensive use of quantitative indicators and price indicators，You can judge the strength of monetary policy。One aspect，Government work reports in recent years focus on the two indicators Bet365 app download of broad currency supply (M2) and social financing scale，The strength of the quantitative monetary policy can be judged according to these two indicators。On the other hand，Economic Theory and international experience shows，Interest rate is the most important indicator。Monetary policy can directly adjust the money market interest rate，What directly affects the real economy is the credit market interest rate，You can judge the strength of the price -type monetary policy based on these two types of indicators。

In terms of quantitative monetary policy，2019 M2 growth rate and social financing scale balance increase slightly back，But it is still at a low level in the past three years，The intensity of visible quantitative monetary policy needs to be improved。January to November 2019，M2's year -on -year growth rate is 8.35%，The average growth rate of the average growth rate from January to October 2018 has only increased by 0.06 percentage points，increased by 0.07 percentage points from the average annual growth rate of the whole year of 2018。As far as the growth rate of social financing scale,，As of the end of November 2019，Social financing scale balance growth rate year -on -year growth is 10.70%，0.74 percentage points from the same period of 2018，0.85 percentage points from 2018，The overall strength is increased，However, compared with 2017, it is still at a significant low position。Considering that the existence of out -of -table financing projects has contracted inside the table since 2018，The increase in incremental credit in the table and the increase in off -balance sheet financing increases more accurately，This is also the most related part of the number of monetary policies in various segments of social financing。From January to November 2019, the total increase of the two more than 2.bet365 Play online games 1 trillion yuan in the same period in 2018，However, it is still 2.29 trillion yuan less than the same period in 2017。Under the condition of increasing economic volume，In -table credit and off -table financing increases have decreased，Also indicates that the intensity of quantitative monetary policy needs to be improved。

In terms of price -type monetary policy，The interest rate of the currency market has no trend decline，The interest rate of the credit market does not fall down，Explain that the intensity of price -type monetary policy also needs to be improved。At present, DR007 (that is, 7 -day repurchase interest rates for pledged bonds for interest rate bonds as pledges) are regarded as the most representative currency market interest rate index。Central bank data show，Although DR007 had a downward trend in from February to March and June -July 2019，but April to May、August -September again appeared up upward trend，Therefore, it is basically the same as the end of 2019 and the beginning of the year，There is no trend decrease。General loan plus equity of financial institutions is a common indicator for credit market interest rates，Considering the actual interest rate instead of nominal interest rates that affect the investment and residents' consumption，Therefore, here is mainly concerned about the actual interest rate trend。Based on the data of the central bank, we can know，The actual interest rate of the general loan of general loans of financial institutions since 2019 has increased，When calculated when using the Core CPI)，The actual interest rate at the end of the third quarter of 2019 increased by 0.32 percentage points higher than the end of 2018; when the use of industrial producers' factory price index (PPI) calculation，The actual interest rate has increased by as much as 3.12 percentage points。Bet365 app download ，The comprehensive interest rate of Wenzhou civil lending in Wenzhou, which is closer to private enterprises, presents a similar trend。

The reason why the monetary policy in 2019 is insufficient，It is mainly affected by the following three factors。One，In the first half of 2019, in order to take into account the "structural deleveraging" goal，To a certain extent, the strength of monetary policy。Since the beginning of 2018，my country's comprehensive promotion of structural deleveraging，In particular, paying attention to reducing the debt of state -owned enterprise and the hidden debt of local governments。In order to cooperate with the process of structural deleveraging，The intensity of financial supervision is significantly strengthened，Entrusted loans such as loan and trust loans obviously contracted。After entering 2019，The process of structural deleveraging is still continuing，Especially prominent in the first half of the year，The central bank has emphasized structural deleveraging in important occasions or documents many times or documents。For example，The implementation report of monetary policy in the first quarter of 2019 clearly points out，"Stable monetary policy helps to provide a suitable macroeconomic and monetary financial environment for structural deleveraging"。Its two，In the second half of 2019，Structural inflation pressure characterized by the sharp rise in pork prices，Makes the central bank worry about the divergence of inflation expectations and cautiously control the relaxation of monetary policy。Report on the implementation of monetary policy in the third quarter of 2019，"CPI has increased year -on -year increase，Structural features are obvious，Be wary of inflation expectations to diverge。Main policy ideas in the next stage，bet365 Play online games Focus on expected guidance，Prevent inflation from divergent expectations "。Its three，Under the situation of economic downside，In order to avoid reappearing real estate as a expectation of a steady growth tool，Monetary policy has always maintained a strong regulatory state of the real estate market，This also limits the operation of monetary policy。

Objectively speaking，The above three factors are more or less constrained by monetary policy operations，But the author thinks，Monetary policy should not weaken the fundamental goal of dealing with the downward pressure of the economy because of the existence of these factors，Instead, in order to take into account other policy goals, the policy strength is appropriately increased by appropriate ways。First，Monetary policy should be stable and flexible，better cooperate with deleveraging processes。Reasons for the reason，The interest rate caused by the tightening of monetary policy，Not only will it exacerbate the debt repayment burden，Push high leverage rate from "molecular end"，It will also inhibit consumer demand and investment demand，Not conducive to economic growth，Push high leverage rate from the "denominator end"。Moderate policy intensity can achieve "steady growth" and "deleveraging" goals at the same time。2，About the risk of housing prices，Government departments can further improve the macro -prudential supervision system，and speed up the construction of a long -term regulation mechanism for the construction of house prices，Let the monetary policy focus on the downward pressure of the economy。third，Although currently facing structural inflation pressure，But the core CPI does not rise and anti -descending，Therefore, it should not be increased by restricting monetary policy on the grounds of inflation pressure。As for the adverse effects of pork prices on the bet365 best casino games lives of residents' lives，It should be mainly targeted with stronger industrial policies or fiscal policies to deal with，instead of total monetary policy。Not only that，The continuous downside of the core CPI and the obvious weakness of PPI means that there is currently certain potential to shrink pressure。Under the condition of coexisting high debt and compasses，If the monetary policy is not appropriate，It may be caught in a vicious cycle of "debt -shrinking"。

Outlook 2020，"The characteristics of accelerated evolution in the world's major changes are more obvious，Global turbulence sources and risk points significantly increased "，China needs to better use monetary policy to promote economic stable growth。First，Further improve the long -term mechanism of real estate regulation and the macro prudent regulatory system，Civil funds "take off the reality to false"，The worries of dispel the currency policy。Next，China's legal deposit reserve rate is still at a relatively high level internationally，Even if considering the total reserve rate containing the excess deposit reserve rate，China is also at a medium level internationally，Therefore, there is a certain reduction space。From the beginning of 2020，The central bank once again announced the reduction of 0.5 percentage points，Just illustrate this。again，At the end of 2019, OMO interest rate is 2.5%，Relatively high since 2016，Relatively high since 2016，Explain that China still has a certain amount of interest rate cuts，You can consider the interest rate cut in time。What needs to be explained is，According to international practice，Interest adjustment usually 25bp each time，Each adjustment of each adjustment of the central bank has been 5bp since the third quarter of 2019，The amplitude is relatively small。"A bet365 best casino games small number of multiple" policy operations For market entities，Especially the stimulus effect of market confidence may be relatively insufficient，Therefore, it can be appropriately increased the amplitude of each rate cut，to better guide expectations、Strengthen market confidence。

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