With the introduction and implementation of a series of policy measures,my country is forming a new pattern of opening up。However,Foreign economic activities between different countries and regions are bringing benefits、Employment and economic growth at the same time,Also contains risks,Especially the bet365 new customer offer risks under the impact of the international market。Therefore,Preventing and resolving major risks has become an important task in my country’s three major battles。Since the 1990s,Developing countries will see a large inflow of capital before a bet365 new customer offer crisis,leading to a sharp increase in domestic investment,Especially when the domestic bet365 new customer offer system is imperfect,Large-scale reversal of capital outflow causing currency depreciation,And caused a rapid economic decline。Visible,The outbreak of bet365 new customer offer crisis is usually accompanied by large-scale cross-border flows of capital。This phenomenon is not only related to a country’s domestic investment and other economic activities,Directly reflected in changes in the current account and bet365 new customer offer and capital accounts components of the balance of payments。Therefore,Pay attention to and clarify the current account and bet365 new customer offer and capital account,Conducive to promoting the healthy development and changing rules of the balance of payments structure,Thus effectively dealing with bet365 new customer offer risks。
The basis of the bet365 new customer offer risk prevention mechanism is to understand the structure and interaction paths of the current account and bet365 new customer offer and capital accounts。Different theories have different views and conclusions on the mechanism of action between the current account and the bet365 new customer offer and capital account,Thus forming different channels of influence on commodity and capital flows。This channel can be one-way,It can also be bidirectional。For example,Classic current account intertemporal theory treats current account balances as dynamic expectations of savings and investment decisions,The current account is not only reflected in net exports,Also reflects net capital gains from foreign assets。Normally,The current account is the gap between a country’s domestic investment and savings。If savings cannot meet investment needs,The imbalance between savings and investment can be compensated through capital inflows。Therefore,Intertemporal theory believes,Current account deficit leads to capital inflow,Thus changing the capital account。Opposite,The bet365 new customer offer system and capital counterflow point of view,Although emerging market countries have significant economic growth potential,Attracted capital inflows,But due to its weak foundation and underdeveloped bet365 new customer offer instruments,Once capital flows out in reverse,Will lead to deterioration of national balance of payments accounts。Therefore,Changes in bet365 new customer offer accounts will lead to changes in current accounts。The view of global savings glut,The global savings glut is caused by,With the rapid growth of the elderly population in industrialized countries,The size of the labor force is declining,Resulting in an increase in the ratio of capital to labor,And caused a sharp decline in domestic investment opportunities。Reduction in savings growth and expected return on investment due to domestic aging,Industrialized countries turn to foreign loans to maintain current account surpluses。
From the above theoretical point of view,The understanding of current account and bet365 new customer offer and capital account should be extended to the overall macroeconomic framework。In the macroeconomic system,The components of aggregate demand include consumption、Investment、Government spending and net exports,The total supply is reflected in consumption、The sum of savings and government revenue。When government spending is equal to government revenue,The sum of investment and net exports equals savings。Net exports as the difference between exports and imports,Represents the current account。It can be seen from this,The current account represents the difference between savings and investments。Since 2010,The current value of my country’s fixed asset investment has maintained a stable upward trend,In the same period, the current value of RMB deposits of bet365 new customer offer institutions showed a trend of falling, then rising and then falling。Overall,my country’s investment scale continues to be higher than the savings scale,And the gap between them is widening。Although the change in savings is basically within the positive range,Historical cumulative value continues to grow,But as residents’ consumption levels continue to rise,The increase in savings has shown a downward trend amid fluctuations,Thus leading to the gradual expansion of the space between investment and savings。In the field of external finance,The bet365 new customer offer and capital account balance has gradually transformed from a huge deficit in 2010 to mainly a surplus,The surplus reached 7231 in 2018.0.2 billion yuan,Explains the increasing scale of capital inflows in the bet365 new customer offer field,Inflow funds make up for the lack of investment demand funds,Maintained macroeconomic stability。Visible,Domestic investment demand guides the cross-border flow of bet365 new customer offer account funds,Fund flows such as direct investment in bet365 new customer offer accounts are mainly concentrated in the investment field。At the same time,Deep excavation and innovative conversion of savings into investment。June 2019,The balance of RMB deposits in Chinese bet365 new customer offer institutions reached 187.57 trillion yuan,Such a large-scale savings asset is a potential source of investment。Promote the conversion of savings into investment,Not only beneficial to economic growth,Also helps with the management of bet365 new customer offer accounts。This requires exploring investment channels,And support professional institutions that help transfer savings to investment,Help transfer savings to investment capital through professional analysis and technical support。
A closer look at the composition of the current account,Starting from 2010,Although the current account balance increased in 2015,But other years are not as big as the difference in 2010,Declining trend。However,In terms of current account debits and credits,Whether it is goods or services,Both the debit and credit sizes in 2018 far exceeded those in previous years,Indicates that both imports and exports have greatly improved。While China is promoting its own exports to earn foreign exchange,It has also increased its efforts to promote imports。Conclusion of trade,It is not the sole effort of a certain country,It is the realization of the common interests of both parties or multiple parties。Although China’s current account balance has shrunk in recent years,But calculated based on total import and export volume,Still plays a very important role in the world economy。Currently,The shrinking current account balance is a reality that must be faced,In particular, the Sino-US trade friction has had a certain impact on my country’s import and export scale,And restrict the role of the traditional accumulation method of my country’s foreign exchange reserves, that is, the current account surplus,So tap into and balance the potential of your bet365 new customer offer accounts。
The different components of the current account and bet365 new customer offer account are inseparable,And there is a long-term influence relationship,For example, many areas involved in direct investment are related to import and export business。This means,With the deepening of China’s capital account opening process,Interaction between physical trade transactions such as goods and services and bet365 new customer offer sector activities such as securities investment,Funds and capital are no longer limited to commodities and finance。Therefore,When regulating import and export, attention must be paid to capital flows in the bet365 new customer offer sector,When monitoring bet365 new customer offer capital flows, import and export conditions need to be considered。Main items of bet365 new customer offer accounts include foreign direct investment、Securities investment and other investments,Securities investment includes equity and bond investment。Different types of capital flows behave differently,The degree of risk involved is also different。Foreign direct investment and equity investment belong to the same type, that is, equity capital flow,Bond investment and other investments can be collectively regarded as debt capital flows。In order to maintain the long-term stability of the current account,Regulation through equity capital flows such as foreign direct investment is a more effective way。Because the original intention of equity capital flow is to devote to the import and export business,Especially through tax and other preferential treatment, capital will be introduced into high-value-added industries such as high-end manufacturing and service industries、Green and low carbon、Internationally competitive industries。This does not only apply to bet365 new customer offer accounts and current accounts,It also helps promote supply-side structural reform,Bringing catalytic impact and spillover effects to China。The flow of debt capital is mainly driven by profit,Weaker stability,If the balance of other investments is from 4856 in 2010.0.3 billion yuan changed to -5197 in 2018.5.6 billion yuan,The gap is one trillion yuan,Among them, loan assets and liabilities fluctuate significantly。
Risk warning indicators are the prerequisite for preventing bet365 new customer offer risks。Severe fluctuations in debt capital,means large-scale cross-border flow of capital,The classification and identification of corresponding early warning indicators should be strengthened,Add early warning weight to such capital flows。Given the impact of investment and savings on balance of payments items,The early warning indicator system not only involves external indicators such as debt capital flows and equity capital flows,Domestic indicators such as investment and savings should also be included,And based on changes in indicators,Forecasting and Reconciling Current Accounts and bet365 new customer offer Accounts。In the context of increasing international bet365 new customer offer risks,Targeted policy controls can be adopted based on the characteristics of cross-border economic behavior,Thus achieving risk prevention and resolution。
Generally speaking,bet365 new customer offer risks originate from bet365 new customer offer and capital accounts,The foreign exchange reserves accumulated in the current account surplus are an effective guarantee against risks,Because in a bet365 new customer offer crisis, the first choice for a country and region to rely on and use to intervene in the market is foreign exchange reserves。In recent years,Change trends in my country’s current account and bet365 new customer offer and capital accounts,No longer a single "one smooth and one reverse",There are situations such as "double surplus",Explains that the mechanism and path of cross-border flows of Chinese goods and funds have changed。The reduction in current account surplus can be balanced by the bet365 new customer offer account surplus,Therefore,Monitor and supervise bet365 new customer offer accounts,Not only helps to identify risk points,You can also limit risky behaviors through institutional arrangements under the principle of caution,While making bet365 new customer offer accounts effectively supplement the domestic investment and savings gap,Form a reasonable capital flow structure and term structure。
(This article is part of the National Social Science Fund project "bet365 new customer offer Risk Generation Logic in an Open bet365 new customer offer Market Environment")、Research on Risk Measurement and Prevention Mechanism” (18BJY232) phased results)
(The author is a professor at Jilin University bet365 new customer offer School)
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