With the introduction and implementation of a series of policies and measures,my country is forming a new structure to open to the outside world。But,Foreign economic activities between different countries and regions are bringing benefits、At the same time of employment and economic growth,It also contains risks,Especially financial risks under the impact of the international market。So,Preventing and resolving major risks has become an important task for the three major battles in my country。Starting in the 1990s,A large amount of capital flows will occur before the financial crisis in developing countries,As a result, domestic investment rises sharply,Especially when the domestic financial system is incomplete,Capital large -scale reversal turning out of currency depreciation,and lead to the rapid decline in the economy。Visible,The outbreak of the financial crisis is usually accompanied by large -scale cross -border flow of capital。This phenomenon is beyond economic activities such as domestic investment in a country,Directly reflected in the changes in bet365 live casino games The constituent elements of the international income and expenditure constituent elements and financial and capital accounts。So,Follow and clarify regular accounts and financial and capital accounts,It helps to promote the benign development and change of the international revenue and expenditure structure,to effectively deal with financial risks。
The basis of the financial risk prevention mechanism is to understand the structure and interaction path of regular accounts and financial and capital accounts。Different theories have different views and conclusions for different theories for the mechanism between bet365 live casino games frequent accounts and financial and capital accounts,This has formed different influence channels for the flow of goods and capital。This channel can be one -way,It can also be two -way。For example,The classic account cross -matise theory regards the dynamic expectations of regular account balances as savings and investment decisions,Frequent accounts are not only reflected as net exports,It also reflects the net capital benefit of foreign assets。Usually,Frequent accounts are gap between domestic investment and savings in a country。If savings cannot meet the needs of investment,Urban inflows through capital inflows can make up for the imbalance between savings and investment。So,Conduct theory Consid by,Frequent account deficit leads to capital inflow,This has changed the capital account。On the contrary,The financial system and capital reverse viewpoint point out,Emerging market countries Although economic growth potential is significant,attracted capital inflow,But due to its weak foundation and underdeveloped financial tools,Once the capital flows out,will cause the national revenue and expenditure account to deteriorate。So,Changes in financial accounts will cause frequent account changes。Excessive views of global savings think,The cause of the excess of global savings is,With the rapid growth of the elderly population in industrialized countries,Labor scale decrease,Leading the proportion of capital labor to increase,and cause domestic investment opportunities to decrease sharply。Decreased savings growth and investment expectations due to domestic aging,Industrialized countries turn to foreign loans to maintain frequent account surplus。
It can be known from the above theoretical views,The awareness of regular accounts and financial and capital accounts should be extended to the overall macroeconomic framework。In the macroeconomic system,bet365 live casino games The constituent elements of total demand include consumption、Investment、Government expenditure and net export,The total supply is reflected in consumption、Savings and government income sum of the three。In the case of equal government expenditure and government income,The sum of investment and net exports is equal to savings。Net exports as the difference between exports and imports,Represents the frequent account。This can be seen,Frequent accounts are manifested as the difference between savings and investment。Since 2010,The current value of my country's fixed asset investment has maintained a stable rise in the current,At the same time, the current value of all financial institutions in the RMB of the RMB in the current period of various deposits of the RMB in the current period of the decrease of rising and decreased after decline。Overall,my country's investment scale continues to higher than the scale of savings,The gap between it is expanding the trend。Although the savings change is basically within the scope,Historical cumulative values continue to grow,But due to the continuous rise in residents' consumption,The increase in savings increased in fluctuations,As a result, the space between investment and savings gradually expands。In the field of foreign finance,The difference between the financial and capital accounts has gradually changed from the huge deficit in 2010 to the surplus as the main,2018 surplus reached 723.102 billion yuan,Explain that the inflow of funds in the financial field is increasingly expanded,Flowing funds make up for the lack of investment demand funds,Maintaining the stability of the macro economy。Visible,Domestic investment demand guides the cross -border flow of financial account funds,Direct investment and other funds of financial accounts are mainly concentrated in the investment field。At the same time,Conversion bet365 Play online games of deep mining and innovative savings to investment。June 2019,Various deposits balance of Chinese financial institutions reached 18.757 trillion yuan,Such a large -scale savings asset is a potential source for driving investment。Promoting the conversion of savings to investment,Not only is it conducive to economic growth,It also helps the management of financial accounts。This requires pioneering investment channels,Professional institutions that help help savings and investments,Help savings transfer to investment capital with professional analysis and technical support。
Fine viewing regular project composition,Starting in 2010,Although the frequent project difference in 2015 has increased,But in other years, the difference in the difference in 2010,Decreased trend。But,As far as the debit and loan of the frequent accounts,Whether it is cargo or service,The size of the debit and the loan in 2018 far exceeds the previous year,It means that the imports and exports have greatly improved。While China is promoting its own export to create foreign exchange,It has also increased the advancement of imports。The reach of trade,Not the power of a country,but the realization of the common interests of both parties or parties。China's frequent project differences have shrunk in recent years,but calculated based on the total import and export value,Still occupying a very important seat in the world economy。At this stage,Frequent project differences are reduced, which must face the reality,Especially Sino -US trade frictions have a certain impact on the scale of imports and exports in my country,And restricted the traditional cumulative channels of foreign exchange reserves in my country, that is, the role of frequent project surplus,Therefore, the potential of digging and balanced financial accounts。
bet365 live casino games frequent accounts and financial accounts are Bet365 app download inseparable from the elements of different constituent elements,There is a long -term influence relationship,Many areas involved in direct investment are related to import and export business。This means,With the in -depth process of the opening of China's capital project,Sports such as cargo and services interact with financial fields such as securities investment,Funds and capital are no longer limited to the field of goods and financial。So,When regulating import and export, pay attention to capital flows in the financial field,When monitoring financial capital flow, the import and export status must be considered。The main project of the financial account includes foreign direct investment、securities investment and other investment,Among them, securities investment includes equity and bond investment。Different types of capital flow performances are different,The risk contained in is also different。Foreign direct investment and equity investment belong to the same type, that is, equity capital flow,and bond investment and other investment can be regarded as the flow of claims capital。To maintain long -term stability of regular accounts,It is a more effective way to regulate the flow of equity capital such as foreign direct investment。The original intention of the flow of equity capital is to be committed to import and export business,Especially for preferential treatment through taxation, the introduction of capital into high -end manufacturing and service industries such as high -value、Green Low Carbon、Industry with international competitiveness。This not only acts on financial accounts and regular accounts,It also helps to promote supply -side structural reforms,bring catalytic impact and overflow effect on China。and debt capital flow is mainly driven by profit,Weaker stability,If other investment differences change from 485.603 billion bet365 best casino games yuan in 2010 to -519.756 billion yuan in 2018,The gap is trillion yuan,Among them, the assets and liabilities of loans are more significant。
Risk early warning indicators are the prerequisite for preventing financial risks。The violent fluctuations of debt capital,It means the large -scale cross -border flow of capital,Early warning indicators should be strengthened by classified identification,Increase early warning weight to such capital flows。In view of the impact of investment and savings on international revenue and expenditure projects,Early warning index system not only involves external indicators such as debt capital flow and equity capital flow,It should also include domestic indicators such as investment and savings,and change according to the indicator,Forecast and adjust regular accounts and financial accounts。Under the background of the continuous accumulation of international financial risks,According to the characteristics of cross -border economic behavior, you can adopt targeted policy regulation,To achieve risk prevention and resolution。
Under normal circumstances,Financial risks originated from financial and capital accounts,Foreign exchange reserves that accumulated accumulated account surplus are effective guarantees for preventing risks,Because the preferred country and region in the financial crisis, the tools that are preferred by one country and region to interfere with the market are foreign exchange reserves。In recent years,The trend of changes in our country's bet365 live casino games frequent accounts and financial and capital accounts,No longer a single "One Shun and One Reverse",Instead, there are "double surplus" and other conditions,Explain that the mechanism and path of cross -border flow of Chinese goods and funds have changed。The reduction of the constant project surplus can be balanced through the financial account surplus,So,Monitoring and supervision of financial bet365 best casino games accounts,Not only helps to discover risk points,You can also arrange restrictions on risk behavior through institutional arrangements under the principle of cautiousness,Make the financial account effectively supplement the domestic investment and savings gap,Form a reasonable capital flow structure and deadline structure。
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(The author is a professor at Jilin University Business School)
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